<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png"/></p>
<p>周五黄金价格小幅波动并略有下跌，但仍然有望出现周度下滑，因为油价上涨、美元走强和国债收益率上升降低了黄金的吸引力，尽管中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势持续。</p>
<p>现货黄金最后接近每盎司 4675 美元，此前在上一交易日触及 4697.06 美元，并进一步回落至 4700 美元水平。</p>
<p>这一走势使得金属承压，因其从近期的历史高点急剧回落，投资者越来越关注能源市场的通胀影响，而非黄金的传统避险角色。</p>
<h2>油价和利率重塑交易格局</h2>
<p>对黄金的主要压力来自原油。</p>
<p>由于美国与伊朗的冲突以及霍尔木兹海峡周围的持续干扰，油价上涨引发了对供应紧张和通胀加剧的担忧。</p>
<p>布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶 105 美元，市场对停火崩溃和航运中断的担忧作出反应。</p>
<p>这一背景对黄金至关重要，因为油价上涨往往会推高通胀预期，并降低近期降息的可能性。</p>
<p>路透社的一项调查发现，美联储可能需要至少六个月才能降息，因为战争驱动的能源成本将传导至价格，强化了长期高利率的叙述。</p>
<p>对于黄金而言，这是一种困难的组合：通胀风险通常可能支持需求，但更高的收益率和更紧的政策预期往往会造成更大损害。</p>
<h2>美元强势加大压力</h2>
<p>美元也使贵金属的处境更加艰难。</p>
<p>更强的美元使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说变得更加昂贵，从而削弱了海外需求。</p>
<p>与此同时，更高的国债收益率提高了持有黄金的机会成本，因为黄金不支付任何收入。</p>
<p>油价上涨加剧了通胀担忧，并加强了美国借贷成本可能在更长时间内保持高位的观点。</p>
<h2>价格和技术水平受到关注</h2>
<p>周四现货黄金徘徊在 4675 美元附近，仍低于 4900 美元水平。</p>
<p>4 月 23 日的数据表明黄金价格为 4693.48 美元，进一步强化了向 4700 美元区域回调的趋势。</p>
<p>这表明，清晰的故事是强劲反弹后的整合，而不是宏观担忧缓解的平稳市场。</p>
<p>黄金面临获利回吐、美元强势支撑和收益率上行压力，而油价仍然是通胀和利率预期的关键变量。</p>
<p>其他贵金属也有所软化，反映出投资者向收益资产轮动时，整个市场面临的更广泛压力。</p>
<p>文章《黄金能否在油价飙升重塑降息预期的情况下守住 4700 美元？》首发于 Invezz。</p>

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

中金黄金

<p>黄金价格承压，交易接近每盎司 4,675 美元，因油价上涨、美元走强以及国债收益率上升削弱了其吸引力。尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续，投资者仍将重点放在能源市场驱动的通胀上。由于能源成本上升，美联储可能会推迟至少六个月的降息。强势美元使得黄金对外国买家而言更加昂贵，而更高的收益率则增加了持有无收益黄金的机会成本。总体而言，黄金在近期高位后正经历整合阶段，受到油价和宏观经济因素的影响</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/02/Gold-jewellery-at-a-store.png"/></p>
<p>Gold was little changed to lower on Friday but remained on course for a weekly decline, as higher oil prices, firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields reduced the appeal of bullion despite continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五黄金价格小幅波动并略有下跌，但仍然有望出现周度下滑，因为油价上涨、美元走强和国债收益率上升降低了黄金的吸引力，尽管中东地区的地缘政治紧张局势持续。</p>
</div><p>Spot gold was last near $4,675 an ounce, after hitting $4,697.06 in the previous session and easing further toward the $4,700 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货黄金最后接近每盎司 4675 美元，此前在上一交易日触及 4697.06 美元，并进一步回落至 4700 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>The move has left the metal under pressure after a sharp retreat from recent record highs, with investors increasingly focused on the inflationary impact of energy markets rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一走势使得金属承压，因其从近期的历史高点急剧回落，投资者越来越关注能源市场的通胀影响，而非黄金的传统避险角色。</p>
</div><h2>Oil and rates reset the trade</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价和利率重塑交易格局</h2>
</div><p>The main pressure on bullion has come from crude.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对黄金的主要压力来自原油。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices have climbed as the US-Iran conflict and repeated disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of tighter supply and stickier inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国与伊朗的冲突以及霍尔木兹海峡周围的持续干扰，油价上涨引发了对供应紧张和通胀加剧的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Brent crude had surged to $105 a barrel, as markets reacted to worries over a ceasefire collapse and renewed shipping disruption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶 105 美元，市场对停火崩溃和航运中断的担忧作出反应。</p>
</div><p>That backdrop matters for gold because rising oil prices tend to push inflation expectations higher and reduce the likelihood of near-term interest-rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一背景对黄金至关重要，因为油价上涨往往会推高通胀预期，并降低近期降息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>A Reuters poll found that the Federal Reserve may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy costs feed through to prices, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rates narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社的一项调查发现，美联储可能需要至少六个月才能降息，因为战争驱动的能源成本将传导至价格，强化了长期高利率的叙述。</p>
</div><p>For gold, that is a difficult mix: inflation risk might usually support demand, but higher yields and tighter policy expectations often do more damage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于黄金而言，这是一种困难的组合：通胀风险通常可能支持需求，但更高的收益率和更紧的政策预期往往会造成更大损害。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar strength adds to the pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元强势加大压力</h2>
</div><p>The dollar has also made life harder for precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元也使贵金属的处境更加艰难。</p>
</div><p>A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, weakening overseas demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更强的美元使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说变得更加昂贵，从而削弱了海外需求。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，更高的国债收益率提高了持有黄金的机会成本，因为黄金不支付任何收入。</p>
</div><p>Rising oil has intensified inflation concerns and strengthened the view that US borrowing costs may stay elevated for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价上涨加剧了通胀担忧，并加强了美国借贷成本可能在更长时间内保持高位的观点。</p>
</div><h2>Prices and technical levels in focus</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>价格和技术水平受到关注</h2>
</div><p>Spot gold hovered near $4,675 on Thursday, remaining below the $4,900 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四现货黄金徘徊在 4675 美元附近，仍低于 4900 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>Data for April 23 showed gold at $4,693.48, reinforcing the pullback toward the $4,700 area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 23 日的数据表明黄金价格为 4693.48 美元，进一步强化了向 4700 美元区域回调的趋势。</p>
</div><p>That suggests the cleaner story is one of consolidation after a powerful rally rather than a flat market with easing macro concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，清晰的故事是强劲反弹后的整合，而不是宏观担忧缓解的平稳市场。</p>
</div><p>Gold is facing profit-taking, stronger dollar support and upward pressure on yields, while oil remains the key variable for inflation and rate expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金面临获利回吐、美元强势支撑和收益率上行压力，而油价仍然是通胀和利率预期的关键变量。</p>
</div><p>Other precious metals have also softened, reflecting the broader pressure across the complex as investors rotate towards yield-bearing assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他贵金属也有所软化，反映出投资者向收益资产轮动时，整个市场面临的更广泛压力。</p>
</div><p>The post Can gold hold $4,700 as oil surge reshapes rate cut expectations? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>文章《黄金能否在油价飙升重塑降息预期的情况下守住 4700 美元？》首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

Can gold hold $4,700 as oil surge reshapes rate cut expectations?

invezz

Kinross Gold

纽蒙特矿业

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

3 倍做多黄金矿业 ETN - MicroSectors

易方达黄金矿业ETF

黄金 ETF - SPDR

初级黄金矿股 ETF

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

SPDR金-U

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

易方达黄金矿-R

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

价值黄金

SPDR金

YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF

价值黄金-U

2 倍做多金矿指数 ETF - Direxion

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

黄金 ETF - iShares

华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF

黄金矿 ETF - Sprott

在油价飙升重塑降息预期的背景下，黄金能否保持在 4700 美元？