<p>寻宝者们正在股市中抢购私人贷款基金，渴望购买看起来便宜的资产。</p>
<p>由于担心贷款人可能过度暴露于受到人工智能干扰威胁的软件业务，基金的估值在上个月降至自 2022 年以来的最低水平。对这些非交易同行的情绪恶化，导致投资者的赎回请求激增，也让公共市场的股东感到恐慌，为一些投资者创造了买入机会。</p>
<p>这种需求帮助提升了在交易所交易的私人信贷基金的估值，这些基金被称为上市商业发展公司。现在，它们的市净率回到了更接近长期平均水平的水平，而一个 BDC 指数在本月截至周四的收盘中上涨了约 2.4%，这部分得益于全球市场的广泛复苏，部分原因是对伊朗战争即将结束的希望。</p>
<p>投资者即将获得一波新信息，这可能会引发新一轮的买入或卖出：最大的 BDC 的财报。Ares Capital Corp. 将于 4 月 28 日发布业绩，随后是其他一系列由资产管理公司支持的 BDC，包括 Blue Owl Capital Inc.、BlackRock Inc.和 Blackstone Inc。</p>
<p>私人贷款人将揭示有关信用损失如何形成的关键信息，以及其投资组合的总价值是上升还是下降。</p>
<p>“我们的预期是，考虑到该领域的利差变化，我们将在第一季度看到软件投资的减记压力，” Fitch Ratings 的分析师表示。</p>
<p>即使没有实际的信用损失，“我们预计市场相关的变动将转化为这些投资的估值降低，这可能会对净资产值产生负面影响。”</p>
<p>但许多 BDC 在最近几周已经看到其股价恢复，估值似乎在上升。Ares Capital Corp. 在 3 月份的收盘价低至其账面价值的约 87.5%，而在周四的交易中接近 93%。Cliffwater BDC 指数在 3 月底时约为其账面价值的 80.5%，而在周四接近 86%。</p>
<p>投资者关注的一种交易涉及出售未上市的 BDC，并购买上市的基金，以从其估值差异中获利。在某些情况下，资金经理可能同时拥有类似基金的上市和未上市版本。</p>
<p>对于未上市的 BDC，当投资者赎回时，他们会以基金的净资产值取回资金，尽管该基金可能限制每季度的总赎回。同时，上市的 BDC 是活跃交易的，可能以低于其净资产值的价格交易。</p>
<p>这为套利机会提供了可能，投资者可以出售其未上市的股份，并以折扣购买类似的上市股份，Putnam Investments 的一位投资组合经理表示，他管理着一只购买 BDC 的交易所交易基金。</p>
<p>“我们在我们的 BDC 基金中看到了这一点，投资者表示他们正在清算其私人持股，并以更低的价格购买公共基金，因此我们看到我们的基金有显著的资金流入，” Petro 说。</p>
<p>包括 Saba Capital 在内的基金经理已提出以大幅折扣购买投资者在未上市商业发展公司的股份。</p>
<p>并不是每位投资者都相信现在买入是明智的。Leuthold Group 的首席投资官 Scott Opsal 表示，很难知道未来几年软件贷款损失会有多严重。与软件业务相关的贷款约占 BDC 投资组合的 20%，巴克莱银行的策略师在 2 月份写道。</p>
<p>“你不想接住下跌的刀，” Opsal 说。“归根结底，这些 BDC 的收益提升不足以抵消可能会伤害你的软件贷款的未知黑洞，因为你可以从投资级债务或垃圾债券基金中获得不错的收益。”</p>
<p>截至周四收盘，美国投资级债券今年上涨了 0.4%，而垃圾债券回报为 1.2%，根据彭博指数数据。与此同时，上市的 BDC 下跌了 7.8%，根据 Cliffwater BDC 指数。</p>
<p>即使 BDC 的估值有所恢复，它们仍低于年初的水平。Cliffwater BDC 指数年初时约为其净资产值的 94%，在过去五年中平均约为 98%。</p>
<p>对于一些投资者来说，这意味着这些股份仍有恢复的空间。</p>
<p>“在没有灾难性市场崩溃的情况下，这是最糟糕的基本面非市场崩溃的抛售，但我确实认为这是过度的，” Putnam 的 Petro 说。</p>

富国 BDC 指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

全球上市私募股权 ETF - ProShares

FBDC

PBDC

<p>bargain hunters 正在利用私募贷款基金的低估值，特别是上市的商业发展公司（BDCs），这些公司的股价已经出现了回升。对信用损失的担忧，尤其是在软件投资方面，导致了谨慎的市场展望。即将发布的主要 BDC 财报可能会影响市场情绪。虽然一些投资者正在从未上市的 BDC 转向上市的 BDC 以寻求更好的估值，但其他人对潜在的贷款损失仍持怀疑态度。总体而言，BDC 的估值仍低于年初水平，尽管近期有所上涨，但仍有回升的空间</p>

<p>Bargain hunters are snatching up private lending funds in the stock market, eager to buy assets that look cheap by a key measure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>寻宝者们正在股市中抢购私人贷款基金，渴望购买看起来便宜的资产。</p>
</div><p>Valuations for the funds last month dropped to their lowest since 2022 amid concerns that the lenders may be overexposed to software businesses under threat from AI disruption. Souring sentiment toward the vehicles’ non-traded peers, which have been hit with more than in redemption requests from investors, also spooked public market shareholders, creating a buying opportunity for some investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于担心贷款人可能过度暴露于受到人工智能干扰威胁的软件业务，基金的估值在上个月降至自 2022 年以来的最低水平。对这些非交易同行的情绪恶化，导致投资者的赎回请求激增，也让公共市场的股东感到恐慌，为一些投资者创造了买入机会。</p>
</div><p>The demand has helped boost valuations for private credit funds that trade on exchanges, known as publicly-listed business development companies. Now, their price to book ratios are back closer to longer-term averages, and an index of BDCs has gained about 2.4% this month through Thursday’s close amid a broader recovery in global markets, sparked in part by hopes that the war in Iran is nearing its conclusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种需求帮助提升了在交易所交易的私人信贷基金的估值，这些基金被称为上市商业发展公司。现在，它们的市净率回到了更接近长期平均水平的水平，而一个 BDC 指数在本月截至周四的收盘中上涨了约 2.4%，这部分得益于全球市场的广泛复苏，部分原因是对伊朗战争即将结束的希望。</p>
</div><p>Investors are about to get a wave of new information that could trigger a fresh round of buying, or selling: earnings from the biggest BDCs. Ares Capital Corp. will post results on April 28, followed by a series of other BDCs backed by asset managers including Blue Owl Capital Inc., BlackRock Inc. and Blackstone Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者即将获得一波新信息，这可能会引发新一轮的买入或卖出：最大的 BDC 的财报。Ares Capital Corp. 将于 4 月 28 日发布业绩，随后是其他一系列由资产管理公司支持的 BDC，包括 Blue Owl Capital Inc.、BlackRock Inc.和 Blackstone Inc。</p>
</div><p>The private lenders will reveal crucial information about how credit losses are shaping up, and whether the total value of their portfolios are rising or falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人贷款人将揭示有关信用损失如何形成的关键信息，以及其投资组合的总价值是上升还是下降。</p>
</div><p>“Our expectation is that we will see some pressure from markdowns in software investments during the first quarter given what’s happened with spreads in that sector,” said , an analyst at Fitch Ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的预期是，考虑到该领域的利差变化，我们将在第一季度看到软件投资的减记压力，” Fitch Ratings 的分析师表示。</p>
</div><p>Even if there aren’t actual credit losses, “we would expect that market related moves would translate into lower valuations for those investments, which could negatively impact net asset value.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使没有实际的信用损失，“我们预计市场相关的变动将转化为这些投资的估值降低，这可能会对净资产值产生负面影响。”</p>
</div><p>But many BDCs have seen their share prices recover in recent weeks, and valuations appear to be getting higher. Ares Capital Corp., which closed as low as about 87.5% of its book value in March, was trading closer to 93% on Thursday. The Cliffwater BDC Index was at about 80.5% of its book value in late March, and was closer to 86% on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但许多 BDC 在最近几周已经看到其股价恢复，估值似乎在上升。Ares Capital Corp. 在 3 月份的收盘价低至其账面价值的约 87.5%，而在周四的交易中接近 93%。Cliffwater BDC 指数在 3 月底时约为其账面价值的 80.5%，而在周四接近 86%。</p>
</div><p>One trade that investors have been looking at involves selling unlisted BDCs, and buying listed vehicles instead, as a way to profit from differences in their valuations. In some cases, a money manager might have both listed and unlisted versions of a similar fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者关注的一种交易涉及出售未上市的 BDC，并购买上市的基金，以从其估值差异中获利。在某些情况下，资金经理可能同时拥有类似基金的上市和未上市版本。</p>
</div><p>For non-listed BDCs, when an investor cashes out, they get their money back at the net asset value of the fund, although the fund might limit total withdrawals every quarter. Meanwhile, listed BDCs are actively traded, and can trade at less than their net asset value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于未上市的 BDC，当投资者赎回时，他们会以基金的净资产值取回资金，尽管该基金可能限制每季度的总赎回。同时，上市的 BDC 是活跃交易的，可能以低于其净资产值的价格交易。</p>
</div><p>That allows for an arbitrage opportunity, where investors can sell their unlisted shares and buy similar listed shares at a discount, said , a portfolio manager at Putnam Investments who runs an exchange traded fund that buys BDCs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为套利机会提供了可能，投资者可以出售其未上市的股份，并以折扣购买类似的上市股份，Putnam Investments 的一位投资组合经理表示，他管理着一只购买 BDC 的交易所交易基金。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve seen that in our BDC fund, where investors have said that they are liquidating their private holdings and buying the public funds for less, and we’ve seen significant inflows into our fund because of that,” Petro said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们在我们的 BDC 基金中看到了这一点，投资者表示他们正在清算其私人持股，并以更低的价格购买公共基金，因此我们看到我们的基金有显著的资金流入，” Petro 说。</p>
</div><p>Fund managers including Saba Capital’s have offered to buy investors’ shares in unlisted business development companies at a steep discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括 Saba Capital 在内的基金经理已提出以大幅折扣购买投资者在未上市商业发展公司的股份。</p>
</div><p>Not every investor is convinced it makes sense to buy now. It’s hard to know how bad loan losses from software will be in the coming years, said Scott Opsal, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. Loans tied to software businesses make up about 20% of BDC portfolios, Barclays Plc strategists wrote in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是每位投资者都相信现在买入是明智的。Leuthold Group 的首席投资官 Scott Opsal 表示，很难知道未来几年软件贷款损失会有多严重。与软件业务相关的贷款约占 BDC 投资组合的 20%，巴克莱银行的策略师在 2 月份写道。</p>
</div><p>“You don’t want to catch a falling knife,” Opsal said. “At the end of the day, these BDCs don’t have enough of a yield pickup to offset the unknown black hole of software loans that could hurt you since you can get decent yield from investment grade debt or a junk bond fund.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你不想接住下跌的刀，” Opsal 说。“归根结底，这些 BDC 的收益提升不足以抵消可能会伤害你的软件贷款的未知黑洞，因为你可以从投资级债务或垃圾债券基金中获得不错的收益。”</p>
</div><p>Through Thursday’s close, US investment-grade bonds have gained 0.4% this year, while junk bonds have returned 1.2%, according to Bloomberg index data. Listed BDCs, meanwhile, are down 7.8%, according to the Cliffwater BDC Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周四收盘，美国投资级债券今年上涨了 0.4%，而垃圾债券回报为 1.2%，根据彭博指数数据。与此同时，上市的 BDC 下跌了 7.8%，根据 Cliffwater BDC 指数。</p>
</div><p>And even if BDC valuations have recovered somewhat, they are still below their levels at the start of the year. The Cliffwater BDC index started the year at about 94% of its net asset value, and has averaged about 98% over the last five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 BDC 的估值有所恢复，它们仍低于年初的水平。Cliffwater BDC 指数年初时约为其净资产值的 94%，在过去五年中平均约为 98%。</p>
</div><p>For some investors, that means there’s still room for the shares to recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于一些投资者来说，这意味着这些股份仍有恢复的空间。</p>
</div><p>“Absent a cataclysmic market breakdown, this is the worst fundamental non-market breaking selloff, but I do think it is overdone,” Putnam’s Petro said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在没有灾难性市场崩溃的情况下，这是最糟糕的基本面非市场崩溃的抛售，但我确实认为这是过度的，” Putnam 的 Petro 说。</p>
</div>

廉价的私人信贷基金吸引了寻找便宜货的投资者