<p>[新加坡] 自伊朗战争开始以来，泰铢在亚洲表现最差，战略家表示，随着冲突推高油价，泰铢面临进一步贬值的风险。</p>
<p>根据三菱 UFJ 银行的说法，考虑到该国的能源进口规模，泰铢可能会再次承受压力。马来亚银行表示，泰国的经常账户季节性模式将在第二季度对货币产生压力。</p>
<p>自战争于 2 月底开始以来，泰铢已经贬值超过 4%，在亚洲仅次于菲律宾比索。随着美伊停火的开始，泰铢在 4 月初回升了一些，但随着双方谈判停滞，它又开始下跌。</p>
<p>三菱 UFJ 银行新加坡外汇策略师 Lloyd Chan 表示：“考虑到泰国在亚洲地区的石油和天然气贸易净赤字最大，我们仍然看到泰铢下行的风险。我们注意到美国对伊朗港口的封锁仍在持续，这将继续扰乱能源流动。”</p>
<p>Chan 表示，泰铢在本季度可能会贬值至每美元 33.90，这将使货币达到自 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平。</p>
<h2>最脆弱</h2>
<p>根据野村全球经济学的研究，泰铢特别脆弱，因为该国在亚洲对能源成本的上涨最为敏感，研究考虑了化石燃料在总能源供应中的占比和能源贸易平衡等因素。</p>
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<p>新加坡马来亚银行的外汇策略师 Alan Lau 表示：“油价上涨和季节性经常账户收窄使我们在第二季度对泰铢保持谨慎。” 他表示，假设油价不会大幅下跌，泰铢预计将在本季度结束时达到每美元 32.50。</p>
<p>马来亚银行的预测与彭博社调查的分析师中位数估计相符，预计到 6 月底将略微下降，当前水平约为每美元 32.40。</p>
<p>泰国的经常账户数据将于周四公布，将初步反映油价飙升的影响。2 月份的数据曾显示盈余意外改善，但这次似乎没有理由乐观。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>泰国黄金交易限制生效，政府控制泰铢</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>泰国 40 亿美元的稻米出口因泰铢升值而面临压力</h3>
<p></p>
<h3>泰国在美国将其列入货币观察名单后，暗示干预泰铢的空间</h3>
<p>如果战争持续，今年经济增长可能放缓至约 1.3%，而冲突前的预估为 1.9%，泰国银行行长 Vitai Ratanakorn 本月表示。中央银行还表示，将 “尽可能长时间” 不加息以支持经济，尽管通胀预计将加速。</p>
<p>香港法国农业信贷银行的新兴市场策略师 Jeffrey Zhang 表示：“泰国银行已经下调了增长预期，并指出对经常账户的负面影响，这对中期的泰铢是看跌的。”</p>
<p>他说，泰铢可能在年末贬值至每美元 33。彭博社</p>
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西方石油

能源业 ETF - SPDR

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

泰国股市指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

能源业 ETF - Vanguard

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

<p>泰铢自伊朗战争开始以来显著贬值，策略师预测由于油价上涨和该国巨大的能源进口赤字，未来还将进一步下跌。自 2 月底以来，泰铢已下跌超过 4%，预计本季度将贬值至每美元 33.90。分析师警告称，较高的油价和收窄的经常账户将继续对泰铢施加压力，预测显示其可能在年底时达到每美元 33。随着冲突持续，经济增长可能在今年放缓至 1.3%，对经常账户产生负面影响</p>

<p>[SINGAPORE] The Thai baht has been among the worst performers in Asia since the start of the Iran War and it’s at risk of further losses as the conflict drives up oil prices, strategists say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[新加坡] 自伊朗战争开始以来，泰铢在亚洲表现最差，战略家表示，随着冲突推高油价，泰铢面临进一步贬值的风险。</p>
</div><p>The baht is likely to come under renewed pressure given the size of the nation’s energy imports, according to MUFG Bank. The seasonal pattern of Thailand’s current account will weigh on the currency in the second quarter, Malayan Banking says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据三菱 UFJ 银行的说法，考虑到该国的能源进口规模，泰铢可能会再次承受压力。马来亚银行表示，泰国的经常账户季节性模式将在第二季度对货币产生压力。</p>
</div><p>The Thai currency has already weakened more than 4 per cent since the war began in late February, trailing only the Philippine peso in Asia. The baht retraced some of its declines in early April as a US-Iran ceasefire began, but it has started to drop again as talks between the two sides have stalled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自战争于 2 月底开始以来，泰铢已经贬值超过 4%，在亚洲仅次于菲律宾比索。随着美伊停火的开始，泰铢在 4 月初回升了一些，但随着双方谈判停滞，它又开始下跌。</p>
</div><p>“We still see risks to the downside for Thai baht, given it runs the largest net oil-and-gas trade deficit in the Asia region,” said Lloyd Chan, a foreign-exchange strategist at MUFG Bank in Singapore. “We are mindful that the US blockade of Iranian ports still persists, which will continue to disrupt energy flows.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三菱 UFJ 银行新加坡外汇策略师 Lloyd Chan 表示：“考虑到泰国在亚洲地区的石油和天然气贸易净赤字最大，我们仍然看到泰铢下行的风险。我们注意到美国对伊朗港口的封锁仍在持续，这将继续扰乱能源流动。”</p>
</div><p>The baht will probably weaken to 33.90 per US dollar this quarter, Chan said, which would put the currency at the weakest level since April 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chan 表示，泰铢在本季度可能会贬值至每美元 33.90，这将使货币达到自 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><h2>Most vulnerable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最脆弱</h2>
</div><p>The Thai currency is particularly vulnerable as the nation is the most exposed in Asia to higher energy costs, according to a study by Nomura Global Economics, based on factors such as the share of fossil fuels in total energy supply and the energy trade balance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据野村全球经济学的研究，泰铢特别脆弱，因为该国在亚洲对能源成本的上涨最为敏感，研究考虑了化石燃料在总能源供应中的占比和能源贸易平衡等因素。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>“Higher oil prices and a seasonally narrower current account keep us cautious on the baht in the second quarter,” said Alan Lau, a foreign-exchange strategist at Maybank in Singapore. The baht is set to end this quarter at 32.50 per US dollar, assuming oil prices do not fall significantly, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡马来亚银行的外汇策略师 Alan Lau 表示：“油价上涨和季节性经常账户收窄使我们在第二季度对泰铢保持谨慎。” 他表示，假设油价不会大幅下跌，泰铢预计将在本季度结束时达到每美元 32.50。</p>
</div><p>Maybank’s forecast matches the median estimate of analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, which represents a slight decline through the end of June from the current level of about 32.40 per US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马来亚银行的预测与彭博社调查的分析师中位数估计相符，预计到 6 月底将略微下降，当前水平约为每美元 32.40。</p>
</div><p>Thailand’s current-account data due on Thursday will give an initial reading about the impact of surging oil prices. The February numbers had shown an unexpected improvement in the surplus, but there seems little reason to be optimistic this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泰国的经常账户数据将于周四公布，将初步反映油价飙升的影响。2 月份的数据曾显示盈余意外改善，但这次似乎没有理由乐观。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/e4c8454718908a6a32d1207cfb283e2a756d00596aa1b4dff03fc1a5ce67312d?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thai gold-trading curbs take effect as authorities rein in baht</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰国黄金交易限制生效，政府控制泰铢</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/6b836fb4a98cd40709f0ca22572b4a8feb8da024a9942fceabfaab9b522d7130?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thailand’s US$4 billion rice exports seen strained by baht rally</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰国 40 亿美元的稻米出口因泰铢升值而面临压力</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/379700cf3771f857986fdcace860d1ae44bb1887cd0254e0106e4c5b4556acbd?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Thailand signals baht intervention room after US puts it on currency watchlist</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>泰国在美国将其列入货币观察名单后，暗示干预泰铢的空间</h3>
</div><p>Economic growth may slow to around 1.3 per cent this year if the war drags on, versus a pre-conflict estimate of 1.9 per cent, Bank of Thailand (BOT) governor Vitai Ratanakorn said this month. The central bank has also signalled it will refrain from raising interest rates “for as long as possible” to support the economy, even though inflation is set to accelerate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果战争持续，今年经济增长可能放缓至约 1.3%，而冲突前的预估为 1.9%，泰国银行行长 Vitai Ratanakorn 本月表示。中央银行还表示，将 “尽可能长时间” 不加息以支持经济，尽管通胀预计将加速。</p>
</div><p>“The BOT has already downgraded growth and flagged a negative impact on the current account, which is bearish for the baht over the medium term,” said Jeffrey Zhang, an emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港法国农业信贷银行的新兴市场策略师 Jeffrey Zhang 表示：“泰国银行已经下调了增长预期，并指出对经常账户的负面影响，这对中期的泰铢是看跌的。”</p>
</div><p>The baht is likely to weaken to 33 per dollar by year-end, he said. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，泰铢可能在年末贬值至每美元 33。彭博社</p>
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</div>

策略师表示，由于石油冲击，泰铢的战争损失预计将加剧