<p>[伦敦] 英国人在四月份的短期和长期通胀预期下降，这一结果出乎意料，来自于 YouGov 为美国银行 Citi 进行的月度调查，该调查表示，这些数据并未为英格兰银行提供更强的鹰派政策基础。</p>
<p>根据周一发布的调查，短期通胀预期从三月份的 5.4% 降至四月份的 5%，而长期预期则从一个月前的 4.5% 降至 4.2%。</p>
<p>这些数字对英格兰银行来说可能是个好消息，因为它正在监测伊朗战争带来的影响。</p>
<p>尽管公众对通胀的预测能力较差，但英格兰银行仍然密切关注他们的预期，以寻找价格压力是否在公众心态中永久根植的迹象，这可能会影响利率决策。</p>
<p>Citi/YouGov 报告表示：“我们认为，目前仍有充分理由忽视这些系列中的波动，直到波动性减弱，趋势变得更加清晰。”</p>
<p><strong>‘尚无更多鹰派政策的基础 ‘</strong></p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，送达您的邮箱。</p>
<p>报告指出，三月份的巨大激增——当时未来一年的通胀预期创下 20 多年来的最大月度增幅——可能是由于伊朗战争导致的燃料价格飙升，形容这一现象为 “异常”。</p>
<p>四月份的数据显示，随着油价，特别是未来价格略微下降，通胀预期正在回落，报告称。</p>
<p>它补充说，假设未来几个月能源市场有序恢复，趋势最终可能会恢复向下的轨迹。</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/0cb566eeb360af34f579bcef5fe7c9c304302846d80d1db990fd22ffc8d49acd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/0cb566eeb360af34f579bcef5fe7c9c304302846d80d1db990fd22ffc8d49acd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>英国查尔斯国王飞往美国，行程被伊朗争端和华盛顿晚会枪击事件笼罩</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/90a6bdc8ea89aafc3c42b0075b40d05d51d409373f7b7cde60c94b5a0a7797ad/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/90a6bdc8ea89aafc3c42b0075b40d05d51d409373f7b7cde60c94b5a0a7797ad/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>英国零售销售反弹，司机们储备燃料</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/d66f65e88e85eac61bab4d0684b9fb1f9bc28bbc1871c7cdf0e8d33e9c00e962/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/d66f65e88e85eac61bab4d0684b9fb1f9bc28bbc1871c7cdf0e8d33e9c00e962/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw"/></p>
<h3>英国消费者信心降至 2023 年以来最低，GfK 称</h3>
<p>报告表示：“只要波动性是可以解释的，并且预期似乎在减弱并保持稳定，我们认为尚无充分理由将这些数据作为更鹰派政策立场的有力论据。” 路透社</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击这里注册以获取解码亚洲通讯，送达您的邮箱，免费。</p>

英国石油

CRUD

<p>根据 YouGov 为花旗银行进行的调查，英国人在短期内的通胀预期从 3 月份的 5.4% 降至 4 月份的 5%，而长期预期则从 4.5% 降至 4.2%。这一下降表明通胀预期有所回落，可能受到油价下跌的影响。英格兰银行可能找不到更强的依据来采取更鹰派的政策，因为预期的波动性仍在监测中。报告指出，3 月份的激增是异常现象，主要是由于伊朗战争导致的燃料价格上涨所驱动</p>

<p>[LONDON] Britons’ short-term and long-term inflation expectations fell in April, in a surprise reading from a monthly survey by YouGov for US bank Citi, which said the data did not give the Bank of England a strong basis for a more hawkish policy position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[伦敦] 英国人在四月份的短期和长期通胀预期下降，这一结果出乎意料，来自于 YouGov 为美国银行 Citi 进行的月度调查，该调查表示，这些数据并未为英格兰银行提供更强的鹰派政策基础。</p>
</div><p>Short-term inflation expectations fell to 5 per cent in April from 5.4 per cent in March, while long-term expectations eased to 4.2 per cent from 4.5 per cent a month earlier, according to the survey published on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据周一发布的调查，短期通胀预期从三月份的 5.4% 降至四月份的 5%，而长期预期则从一个月前的 4.5% 降至 4.2%。</p>
</div><p>The numbers are likely welcome news for the Bank of England as it monitors the fallout from the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字对英格兰银行来说可能是个好消息，因为它正在监测伊朗战争带来的影响。</p>
</div><p>While the public are poor predictors of inflation, the BoE watches their expectations carefully for signs that price pressures are becoming permanently embedded in the mindset of the public, which could in turn influence interest rate decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公众对通胀的预测能力较差，但英格兰银行仍然密切关注他们的预期，以寻找价格压力是否在公众心态中永久根植的迹象，这可能会影响利率决策。</p>
</div><p>“We think there is still a compelling case to look through the volatility in these series for now until the volatility eases and the trend becomes clearer,” the Citi/YouGov report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Citi/YouGov 报告表示：“我们认为，目前仍有充分理由忽视这些系列中的波动，直到波动性减弱，趋势变得更加清晰。”</p>
</div><p><strong>‘Little basis yet‘ for more hawkish policy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>‘尚无更多鹰派政策的基础 ‘</strong></p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，送达您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>It said that the big spike in March - when the inflation expectation for the year ahead marked the biggest monthly increase in more than 20 years - could have been due to a spike in fuel prices driven by the war in Iran, describing it as “anomalous”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，三月份的巨大激增——当时未来一年的通胀预期创下 20 多年来的最大月度增幅——可能是由于伊朗战争导致的燃料价格飙升，形容这一现象为 “异常”。</p>
</div><p>The April figures suggest inflation expectations are retreating as oil prices, and in particular future prices, drop to slightly lower levels, the report said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月份的数据显示，随着油价，特别是未来价格略微下降，通胀预期正在回落，报告称。</p>
</div><p>It added that the trend would likely resume its downward path eventually, assuming an orderly return to energy markets over the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它补充说，假设未来几个月能源市场有序恢复，趋势最终可能会恢复向下的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/0cb566eeb360af34f579bcef5fe7c9c304302846d80d1db990fd22ffc8d49acd/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/0cb566eeb360af34f579bcef5fe7c9c304302846d80d1db990fd22ffc8d49acd?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Britain’s King Charles jets to US for trip overshadowed by Iran quarrel and DC gala shooting</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>英国查尔斯国王飞往美国，行程被伊朗争端和华盛顿晚会枪击事件笼罩</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/90a6bdc8ea89aafc3c42b0075b40d05d51d409373f7b7cde60c94b5a0a7797ad/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/90a6bdc8ea89aafc3c42b0075b40d05d51d409373f7b7cde60c94b5a0a7797ad?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>UK retail sales rebound as drivers stock up on fuel</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>英国零售销售反弹，司机们储备燃料</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/d66f65e88e85eac61bab4d0684b9fb1f9bc28bbc1871c7cdf0e8d33e9c00e962/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/d66f65e88e85eac61bab4d0684b9fb1f9bc28bbc1871c7cdf0e8d33e9c00e962?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>UK consumer sentiment falls to lowest since 2023, GfK says</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>英国消费者信心降至 2023 年以来最低，GfK 称</h3>
</div><p>“So long as the volatility is explicable, and the expectations appear to be both moderating and anchored, we think there is little basis yet to use this data as a convincing argument for a more hawkish policy position,” the report said. REUTERS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告表示：“只要波动性是可以解释的，并且预期似乎在减弱并保持稳定，我们认为尚无充分理由将这些数据作为更鹰派政策立场的有力论据。” 路透社</p>
</div><p>Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击这里注册以获取解码亚洲通讯，送达您的邮箱，免费。</p>
</div>

UK public inflation expectations retrace in April: survey

- 英国四月份短期和长期通胀预期意外下降。  
- 短期预期从 5.4% 降至 5%，长期预期从 4.5% 降至 4.2%。  
- 此数据未为英格兰银行提供鹰派政策基础，需继续观察。

调查显示，英国公众的通胀预期在四月份有所回落