<p>加拿大央行今天将隔夜利率目标维持在 2.25%，银行利率为 2.5%，存款利率为 2.20%。</p>
<p>中东不断演变的冲突导致了波动性加剧，而美国的贸易政策继续重塑全球贸易格局。这两者都是持续的不确定性来源。央行的四月展望假设关税保持不变，全球基准油价预计到 2027 年中期将降至每桶 75 美元。</p>
<p>伊朗战争导致能源价格急剧上涨和运输中断，削弱了石油进口国的增长前景，并推动全球通胀。在美国，预计在预测期内经济增长仍将保持强劲，受益于与人工智能相关的投资和消费增长。中国经济受到强劲出口的支持。欧元区的油气价格上涨将对经济活动产生压力。</p>
<p>金融条件波动不定，反映了中东的日常动态以及市场对通胀和利率的预期变化。自一月以来，债券收益率略有上升，而在战争初期大幅下跌的股市已经恢复。自战争开始以来，美元对大多数主要货币升值，加元兑美元汇率相对稳定。</p>
<p>总体而言，预计全球经济在 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年将增长约 3%。由于能源价格的飙升，未来一年的通胀预测上调。</p>
<p>加拿大经济增长的前景与一月的《货币政策报告》（MPR）预测变化不大。在 2025 年第四季度出现收缩后，预计经济将在 2026 年初恢复增长。消费者和政府支出支持经济活动，而关税和贸易不确定性则对出口和商业投资造成压力。住房活动在第四季度下降，受到人口增长缓慢、经济不确定性和持续的可负担性问题的制约。劳动力市场疲软，过去一年就业增长乏力，受到美国关税影响的行业出现了裁员。失业率保持在 6.5%-7% 的区间，反映出招聘疲软和求职者减少。</p>
<p>央行四月的预测预计 2026 年 GDP 增长 1.2%，2027 年升至 1.6%，2028 年升至 1.7%，随着出口和商业投资沿着较低的轨迹恢复增长。随着 GDP 略高于潜在水平，经济中的当前过剩供应正在逐渐被吸收。尽管伊朗战争可能改变其构成，但在更新的预测中，整体 GDP 增长变化不大：由于加拿大是一个大型净石油出口国，较高的油价增加了国民收入，即使消费者因汽油价格上涨而受到挤压。</p>
<p>由于汽油价格急剧上涨，3 月份 CPI 通胀攀升至 2.4%。3 月份的增长是在经历了几个月的通胀数据放缓之后。核心通胀有所缓解，并在最近的通胀报告中保持在略高于 2% 的水平。CPI 篮子中价格上涨超过 3% 的成分比例在最近几个月也有所下降。如预期的那样，目前几乎没有证据表明油价已经更广泛地传导到商品和服务价格中，但这在未来几个月值得密切关注。短期通胀预期因汽油价格上涨和仍然高企的食品价格通胀而上升，但长期通胀预期保持稳定。</p>
<p>预计 4 月份 CPI 通胀将进一步上升至约 3%。基于油价将回落的假设，预计通胀将在明年初降至 2% 的目标，并在预测期内保持在 2% 左右。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，考虑到当前的预测，决策委员会决定将政策利率维持在 2.25%。我们正在密切关注中东冲突的影响以及经济对美国关税和贸易政策不确定性的反应。决策委员会正在关注战争对通胀的直接影响，但不会让较高的能源价格成为持续的通胀。随着前景的发展，我们随时准备根据需要作出反应。央行致力于在这一全球动荡时期维护加拿大人对价格稳定的信心。</p>

<p>加拿大银行维持隔夜利率在 2.25%，理由是全球不确定性持续，特别是由于中东冲突和美国贸易政策。展望预测 2026 年 GDP 增长为 1.2%，预计通胀将在 4 月上升至 3%，然后在明年稳定在 2% 的目标附近。银行正在密切关注这些因素对经济的影响，并准备根据需要调整政策，以确保加拿大人的价格稳定</p>

<p>The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大央行今天将隔夜利率目标维持在 2.25%，银行利率为 2.5%，存款利率为 2.20%。</p>
</div><p>The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东不断演变的冲突导致了波动性加剧，而美国的贸易政策继续重塑全球贸易格局。这两者都是持续的不确定性来源。央行的四月展望假设关税保持不变，全球基准油价预计到 2027 年中期将降至每桶 75 美元。</p>
</div><p>The Iran war has led to sharply higher energy prices and transportation disruptions, diminishing growth prospects in oil-importing countries and boosting inflation worldwide. In the United States, growth is still expected to be solid over the projection horizon, boosted by AI-related investment and consumption growth. China’s economy is being supported by robust exports. In the euro area, higher prices for oil and natural gas will weigh on economic activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗战争导致能源价格急剧上涨和运输中断，削弱了石油进口国的增长前景，并推动全球通胀。在美国，预计在预测期内经济增长仍将保持强劲，受益于与人工智能相关的投资和消费增长。中国经济受到强劲出口的支持。欧元区的油气价格上涨将对经济活动产生压力。</p>
</div><p>Financial conditions have been volatile, reflecting daily developments in the Middle East and shifting market expectations for inflation and interest rates. Bond yields are modestly higher since January while equity markets, which weakened sharply at the outset of the war, have recovered. Since the start of the war, the US dollar has appreciated against most major currencies. The Canada-US exchange rate has been relatively stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融条件波动不定，反映了中东的日常动态以及市场对通胀和利率的预期变化。自一月以来，债券收益率略有上升，而在战争初期大幅下跌的股市已经恢复。自战争开始以来，美元对大多数主要货币升值，加元兑美元汇率相对稳定。</p>
</div><p>Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Projections for inflation over the next year are revised up because of the jump in energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，预计全球经济在 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年将增长约 3%。由于能源价格的飙升，未来一年的通胀预测上调。</p>
</div><p>The outlook for economic growth in Canada is little changed from the January <em>Monetary Policy Report</em> (MPR) projection. After a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, growth is forecast to have resumed in early 2026. Consumer and government spending are supporting economic activity, while tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment. Housing activity declined in the fourth quarter and is being held back by slow population growth, economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability issues. The labour market is soft, with subdued employment growth over the past year and job losses in sectors targeted by US tariffs. The unemployment rate remains in the 6½%‑7% range, reflecting both weak hiring and fewer job seekers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加拿大经济增长的前景与一月的《货币政策报告》（MPR）预测变化不大。在 2025 年第四季度出现收缩后，预计经济将在 2026 年初恢复增长。消费者和政府支出支持经济活动，而关税和贸易不确定性则对出口和商业投资造成压力。住房活动在第四季度下降，受到人口增长缓慢、经济不确定性和持续的可负担性问题的制约。劳动力市场疲软，过去一年就业增长乏力，受到美国关税影响的行业出现了裁员。失业率保持在 6.5%-7% 的区间，反映出招聘疲软和求职者减少。</p>
</div><p>The Bank’s April forecast projects GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026, rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028 as growth in exports and business investment resumes along a lower trajectory. With GDP growing slightly above potential, the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed. While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>央行四月的预测预计 2026 年 GDP 增长 1.2%，2027 年升至 1.6%，2028 年升至 1.7%，随着出口和商业投资沿着较低的轨迹恢复增长。随着 GDP 略高于潜在水平，经济中的当前过剩供应正在逐渐被吸收。尽管伊朗战争可能改变其构成，但在更新的预测中，整体 GDP 增长变化不大：由于加拿大是一个大型净石油出口国，较高的油价增加了国民收入，即使消费者因汽油价格上涨而受到挤压。</p>
</div><p>CPI inflation climbed to 2.4% in March because of sharply higher gasoline prices. The March increase follows several months of slowing inflation data. Core inflation has been easing and held steady at just above 2% in the most recent inflation report. The proportion of components of the CPI basket rising above 3% has also declined in recent months. As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead. Near-term inflation expectations have moved up with higher gasoline prices and still-elevated food price inflation, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于汽油价格急剧上涨，3 月份 CPI 通胀攀升至 2.4%。3 月份的增长是在经历了几个月的通胀数据放缓之后。核心通胀有所缓解，并在最近的通胀报告中保持在略高于 2% 的水平。CPI 篮子中价格上涨超过 3% 的成分比例在最近几个月也有所下降。如预期的那样，目前几乎没有证据表明油价已经更广泛地传导到商品和服务价格中，但这在未来几个月值得密切关注。短期通胀预期因汽油价格上涨和仍然高企的食品价格通胀而上升，但长期通胀预期保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%. Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计 4 月份 CPI 通胀将进一步上升至约 3%。基于油价将回落的假设，预计通胀将在明年初降至 2% 的目标，并在预测期内保持在 2% 左右。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop and taking into account the current projection, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，考虑到当前的预测，决策委员会决定将政策利率维持在 2.25%。我们正在密切关注中东冲突的影响以及经济对美国关税和贸易政策不确定性的反应。决策委员会正在关注战争对通胀的直接影响，但不会让较高的能源价格成为持续的通胀。随着前景的发展，我们随时准备根据需要作出反应。央行致力于在这一全球动荡时期维护加拿大人对价格稳定的信心。</p>
</div>

Bank of Canada statement from the April 2026 rate decision

- 加拿大央行将利率维持在 2.25% 以应对不确定性。  
- 中东冲突导致全球经济波动，油价上涨影响了通胀预期。  
- 预计 2026 年 GDP 增长 1.2%，长期通胀将稳定在 2% 左右。

加拿大央行 2026 年 4 月利率决议声明