<p>[纽约] 美国联邦储备委员会官员维持利率不变，但在中东冲突带来的不确定性加剧的背景下，透露出对政策前景的分歧加深。</p>
<p>四位官员投票反对这一决定，其中三位反对会议后声明中暗示中央银行最终将恢复降息的措辞。</p>
<p>在他作为美联储主席的最后一次新闻发布会上，杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他打算继续留在中央银行，成为其理事会成员。他说，司法部官员在周末向他保证，除非美联储的内部监察机构建议，否则不会重新启动对中央银行的有争议的刑事调查。</p>
<p>不过，他指出，华盛顿特区的美国检察官表示，如果有必要，她可能会重新启动调查。</p>
<p>“我曾说过，在这项调查完全透明和结束之前，我不会离开理事会，我对此坚持不变，” 鲍威尔说。“我会在我认为合适的时候离开。”</p>
<p>美联储周三的声明中提到，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克、明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里和达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根 “支持维持联邦基金利率的目标区间，但不支持在此时声明中包含宽松倾向”。</p>
<h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
<p>获取洞察，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
<p>州长斯蒂芬·米兰对降息四分之一点表示异议。</p>
<p>8-4 的投票标志着自 1992 年 10 月以来，首次有四位官员对联邦公开市场委员会的决定表示异议。委员会将基准联邦基金利率维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间内。</p>
<p>在被问及异议时，鲍威尔表示，这反映出委员会的中心 “正朝着更中立的方向移动”。但他补充道，“我们中的大多数人并不觉得现在需要发出信号。”</p>
<p>另见</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/da100cae531f601ec5f91dfecfb61a74b27f3b9d61b419aa23d73e88f675e04c/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/da100cae531f601ec5f91dfecfb61a74b27f3b9d61b419aa23d73e88f675e04c/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什赢得关键参议院委员会投票</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/8d4c4f16cb022f837dbb019f2d54d052e3da99316fbf659364eae5485477f2f7/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/8d4c4f16cb022f837dbb019f2d54d052e3da99316fbf659364eae5485477f2f7/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>时代的结束 – 美联储的鲍威尔将通过维持利率稳定来监督最后一次政策会议</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dc3810b4a962a84f8a4d454cde7f78a3eb97a0ac56538a19a3ce2cd4f03b726d/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dc3810b4a962a84f8a4d454cde7f78a3eb97a0ac56538a19a3ce2cd4f03b726d/query-dz0yNDAWZHByPTEWZj13ZWJw"/></p>
<h3>美国参议员蒂利斯表示他准备推进沃什作为美联储主席的确认</h3>
<p>短期国债收益率紧密跟踪美联储货币政策的近期前景，在决定后上涨，因为投资者关注鹰派的异议者。周三，两年期国债的利率上涨了多达 11 个基点，达到 3.95%，而交易员们增加了对美联储将在 2027 年加息的押注。美元对大多数同行上涨。</p>
<p>“异议显然让我们和市场感到意外，可能为即将召开的会议上放弃宽松倾向铺平了道路，” 法国兴业银行美国研究负责人苏巴德拉·拉贾帕说。</p>
<p>委员会的分歧集中在声明中提到的 “额外调整的程度和时机” 这一措辞上。随着 2025 年底的降息，措辞暗示美联储最终将进行进一步降息。自 1 月以来，越来越多的官员一直在推动改变，以更清晰地表明美联储的下一步可能是加息，但周三措辞未作更改。</p>
<p>官员们确实同意对声明进行单独修改，强调了一句描述来自中东战争的不确定性的措辞。新措辞提到了这种不确定性的 “高水平”。</p>
<h2>鲍威尔的未来</h2>
<p>鲍威尔决定留下将使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普失去填补美联储新空缺的机会，并可能使凯文·沃什的工作变得复杂，后者正在等待参议院确认以接替鲍威尔的职位。</p>
<p>美联储主席通常在其任期结束时完全辞去中央银行职务。但鲍威尔的主席任期将于 5 月 15 日结束，他可以在 2028 年 1 月之前继续留在理事会。</p>
<p>在留任期间，鲍威尔承诺不会试图掩盖沃什或对货币政策保持过大的影响力。</p>
<p>“我计划作为一名理事保持低调，” 他说。“美联储理事会只有一位主席。当凯文·沃什被确认并宣誓就职时，他将是那位主席。”</p>
<p>参议院银行委员会周三投票推进沃什的提名至全体参议院。一旦确认，沃什将接替米兰的职位。</p>
<p>沃什将在美国与伊朗的战争继续加剧商业领袖和经济学家的不确定性之际接任。随之而来的能源价格飙升威胁着已经顽固的通货膨胀，消费者的额外负担可能导致增长放缓和裁员。</p>
<h2>中央银行的噩梦</h2>
<p>这为中央银行家设定了一个噩梦：更高的通货膨胀和上升的失业率同时拉扯货币政策。</p>
<p>目前，失业率似乎已经稳定。但根据多位政策制定者的说法，过去一年净招聘已降至接近零，使劳动市场容易受到冲击。</p>
<p>与此同时，通货膨胀已经超过美联储 2% 的目标五年。周三，当官员们开会时，布伦特原油价格达到了自 2022 年 6 月以来的最高水平。虽然没有美联储官员表示他们预计下一步政策举措将是加息，但几位官员渴望发出信号，表明这可能是。</p>
<p>本月早些时候的一份报告显示，3 月份消费者价格通胀以近四年来最大幅度飙升，这主要是由于汽油价格创下历史新高。虽然这一上涨目前主要集中在能源价格上，但公司和经济学家警告称，战争持续的时间越长，通胀蔓延到非能源商品和服务的可能性就越大。彭博社</p>
<p>解码亚洲通讯：您在新全球秩序中导航亚洲的指南。点击这里注册以获取解码亚洲通讯，直接发送到您的邮箱。免费。</p>

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

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金融业 ETF - Vanguard

金融指数 MSCI ETF - Fidelity

<p>美国联邦储备委员会官员决定维持利率不变，显示出在中东冲突背景下对未来政策的分歧。在他作为美联储主席的最后一次新闻发布会上，杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认他将继续担任理事会成员，直到刑事调查结束。美联储的决定以 8-4 的投票结果通过，标志着显著的异议。鲍威尔强调对未来利率调整采取谨慎的态度，而市场对此异议的反应是国债收益率上升和美元走强。凯文·沃什作为新任美联储主席的提名在持续的经济不确定性中正在推进</p>

<p>[NEW YORK] US Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged, but revealed a deepening division over the outlook for policy amid increased uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[纽约] 美国联邦储备委员会官员维持利率不变，但在中东冲突带来的不确定性加剧的背景下，透露出对政策前景的分歧加深。</p>
</div><p>Four officials voted against the decision, including three who objected to language in their post-meeting statement that suggested the central bank would eventually resume cutting rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四位官员投票反对这一决定，其中三位反对会议后声明中暗示中央银行最终将恢复降息的措辞。</p>
</div><p>In what will be his last press conference as Fed chair, Jerome Powell said that he intends to remain at the central bank as a member of its Board of Governors. He said that Justice Department officials had assured him over the weekend they would not restart a controversial criminal investigation into the central bank unless the Fed’s internal watchdog recommended that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他作为美联储主席的最后一次新闻发布会上，杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他打算继续留在中央银行，成为其理事会成员。他说，司法部官员在周末向他保证，除非美联储的内部监察机构建议，否则不会重新启动对中央银行的有争议的刑事调查。</p>
</div><p>Still, he noted, the US Attorney for the District of Columbia has said she might reopen the probe if warranted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，他指出，华盛顿特区的美国检察官表示，如果有必要，她可能会重新启动调查。</p>
</div><p>“I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that,” Powell said. “I will leave when I think it’s appropriate to do so.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我曾说过，在这项调查完全透明和结束之前，我不会离开理事会，我对此坚持不变，” 鲍威尔说。“我会在我认为合适的时候离开。”</p>
</div><p>The Fed’s statement on Wednesday said Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储周三的声明中提到，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克、明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·卡什卡里和达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根 “支持维持联邦基金利率的目标区间，但不支持在此时声明中包含宽松倾向”。</p>
</div><h3>Navigate Asia in  a new global order</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>在新的全球秩序中导航亚洲</h3>
</div><p>Get the insights delivered to your inbox.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取洞察，直接发送到您的邮箱。</p>
</div><p>Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a quarter-point reduction in rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>州长斯蒂芬·米兰对降息四分之一点表示异议。</p>
</div><p>The 8-4 vote marked the first time since October 1992 that four officials dissented against a Federal Open Market Committee decision. The committee left their benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8-4 的投票标志着自 1992 年 10 月以来，首次有四位官员对联邦公开市场委员会的决定表示异议。委员会将基准联邦基金利率维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间内。</p>
</div><p>Asked about the dissents, Powell said that they reflected the fact that the centre of the committee “is moving towards a more neutral place.” But, he added, “a majority of us did not feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在被问及异议时，鲍威尔表示，这反映出委员会的中心 “正朝着更中立的方向移动”。但他补充道，“我们中的大多数人并不觉得现在需要发出信号。”</p>
</div><p>SEE ALSO</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另见</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/da100cae531f601ec5f91dfecfb61a74b27f3b9d61b419aa23d73e88f675e04c/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/da100cae531f601ec5f91dfecfb61a74b27f3b9d61b419aa23d73e88f675e04c?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh wins key Senate Committee vote</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什赢得关键参议院委员会投票</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/8d4c4f16cb022f837dbb019f2d54d052e3da99316fbf659364eae5485477f2f7/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/8d4c4f16cb022f837dbb019f2d54d052e3da99316fbf659364eae5485477f2f7?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>End of an era – Fed’s Powell set to oversee final policy meeting by keeping rates steady</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>时代的结束 – 美联储的鲍威尔将通过维持利率稳定来监督最后一次政策会议</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dc3810b4a962a84f8a4d454cde7f78a3eb97a0ac56538a19a3ce2cd4f03b726d/query-ZHByPTEmZj13ZWJwJnc9MjQw" alt="" original-src="https://cassette.sphdigital.com.sg/image/businesstimes/dc3810b4a962a84f8a4d454cde7f78a3eb97a0ac56538a19a3ce2cd4f03b726d?w=240&amp;dpr=1&amp;f=webp"/></p>
<h3>US Senator Tillis says he’s ready to advance confirmation of Warsh as Fed chair</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美国参议员蒂利斯表示他准备推进沃什作为美联储主席的确认</h3>
</div><p>Short-maturity Treasury yields, which track the near-term outlook for Fed monetary policy closely, rose after the decision as investors focused on the hawkish dissenters. The rate on the two-year note climbed as much as 11 basis points to 3.95 per cent on Wednesday, while traders added to bets the Fed will increase rates in 2027. The US dollar rose against most of its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期国债收益率紧密跟踪美联储货币政策的近期前景，在决定后上涨，因为投资者关注鹰派的异议者。周三，两年期国债的利率上涨了多达 11 个基点，达到 3.95%，而交易员们增加了对美联储将在 2027 年加息的押注。美元对大多数同行上涨。</p>
</div><p>“The dissents clearly caught us and the markets by surprise and could potentially set the stage for a shift away from an easing bias at upcoming meetings,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of US research at Societe Generale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“异议显然让我们和市场感到意外，可能为即将召开的会议上放弃宽松倾向铺平了道路，” 法国兴业银行美国研究负责人苏巴德拉·拉贾帕说。</p>
</div><p>The split on the committee focused on a phrase in the statement referring to “the extent and timing of additional adjustments” to rates. Following reductions in late 2025, the language suggested the Fed would eventually make further cuts. Since January, a growing number of officials have been pushing for a change that would signal more clearly the possibility that the Fed’s next move could be a rate hike, but the language was left unchanged on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委员会的分歧集中在声明中提到的 “额外调整的程度和时机” 这一措辞上。随着 2025 年底的降息，措辞暗示美联储最终将进行进一步降息。自 1 月以来，越来越多的官员一直在推动改变，以更清晰地表明美联储的下一步可能是加息，但周三措辞未作更改。</p>
</div><p>Officials did agree to make a separate change to their statement, adding some emphasis to a line describing uncertainty emanating from the war in the Middle East. The new wording referenced the “high level” of that uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官员们确实同意对声明进行单独修改，强调了一句描述来自中东战争的不确定性的措辞。新措辞提到了这种不确定性的 “高水平”。</p>
</div><h2>Powell’s future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>鲍威尔的未来</h2>
</div><p>Powell’s decision to stay will deny US President Donald Trump the opportunity to fill a new vacancy at the Fed and could complicate the job of Kevin Warsh, who is on track to succeed Powell as chair pending his confirmation by the Senate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔决定留下将使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普失去填补美联储新空缺的机会，并可能使凯文·沃什的工作变得复杂，后者正在等待参议院确认以接替鲍威尔的职位。</p>
</div><p>Fed chairs traditionally resign from the central bank altogether when their chair terms expire. But Powell, whose term as chair ends May 15, can remain in his board seat until January 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席通常在其任期结束时完全辞去中央银行职务。但鲍威尔的主席任期将于 5 月 15 日结束，他可以在 2028 年 1 月之前继续留在理事会。</p>
</div><p>In staying, Powell vowed he wouldn’t seek to overshadow Warsh or retain outsize influence over monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在留任期间，鲍威尔承诺不会试图掩盖沃什或对货币政策保持过大的影响力。</p>
</div><p>“I plan to keep a low profile as a governor,” he said. “There is only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我计划作为一名理事保持低调，” 他说。“美联储理事会只有一位主席。当凯文·沃什被确认并宣誓就职时，他将是那位主席。”</p>
</div><p>The Senate Banking Committee voted on Wednesday to advance Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate. Once confirmed, Warsh would take Miran’s seat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>参议院银行委员会周三投票推进沃什的提名至全体参议院。一旦确认，沃什将接替米兰的职位。</p>
</div><p>Warsh will take the helm as the US-Israeli war with Iran continues to fan uncertainty among business leaders and economists. The resultant surge in energy prices has threatened to fuel already-stubborn inflation, and the extra burden on consumers could lead to slower growth and job cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什将在美国与伊朗的战争继续加剧商业领袖和经济学家的不确定性之际接任。随之而来的能源价格飙升威胁着已经顽固的通货膨胀，消费者的额外负担可能导致增长放缓和裁员。</p>
</div><h2>Central bank nightmare</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央银行的噩梦</h2>
</div><p>That sets up a central banker’s nightmare: higher inflation and climbing unemployment that tug monetary policy in two directions at once.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为中央银行家设定了一个噩梦：更高的通货膨胀和上升的失业率同时拉扯货币政策。</p>
</div><p>For now, the unemployment rate appears to have stabilised. But net hiring has fallen to near zero over the past year, making the labour market vulnerable to shocks, according to multiple policymakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，失业率似乎已经稳定。但根据多位政策制定者的说法，过去一年净招聘已降至接近零，使劳动市场容易受到冲击。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, inflation has been above the Fed’s 2 per cent target for five years. As officials met on Wednesday, Brent crude prices hit their highest since June 2022. While no Fed official has said they expect the next policy move to be a hike, several are keen to signal that it could be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，通货膨胀已经超过美联储 2% 的目标五年。周三，当官员们开会时，布伦特原油价格达到了自 2022 年 6 月以来的最高水平。虽然没有美联储官员表示他们预计下一步政策举措将是加息，但几位官员渴望发出信号，表明这可能是。</p>
</div><p>A report earlier this month showed consumer price inflation surged in March by the most in nearly four years on the back of a record increase in petrol prices. That spike is largely contained to energy prices for now, but companies and economists have warned the longer the war goes on, the more likely inflation is to bleed into non-energy goods and services. BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候的一份报告显示，3 月份消费者价格通胀以近四年来最大幅度飙升，这主要是由于汽油价格创下历史新高。虽然这一上涨目前主要集中在能源价格上，但公司和经济学家警告称，战争持续的时间越长，通胀蔓延到非能源商品和服务的可能性就越大。彭博社</p>
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</div>

Divided Fed officials hold rates; Powell to stay as governor

- 美联储维持利率不变，四位官员投票反对决定，显示政策分歧加深。  
- 鲍威尔在最后一次发布会上表态继续留任，强调透明度的重要性。  
- 市场对未来加息的预期升温，通货膨胀压力持续影响政策制定。

美联储官员意见分歧，维持利率不变；鲍威尔将继续担任理事