<p>根据最新的官方数据，香港的房地产交易在四月份激增至四个月来的最高水平，而住宅销售的价值和数量达到了 24 个月来的最高水平，这突显了在利率不确定性和美国 - 以色列对伊朗战争背景下，该市房地产行业的韧性。根据土地注册处周二发布的数据，上个月共完成了 8,692 宗交易，包括住宅、办公室、商铺、停车位和工业用地，较三月份的 7,737 宗交易增长了 12.3%。总销售额上升了 17%，约为 729 亿港元（93 亿美元）。数据显示，四月份新建和二手住宅单位的销售环比增长了 16.7%，达到 7,368 宗，为 2024 年四月以来的最高水平，当时售出 8,551 个单位。四月份的销售额较三月份增加了约 15.4%，达到 636.7 亿港元。瑞安地产研究部负责人陈海超表示：“新房销售登记数量显著反弹，加上二手市场和商业及工业物业的稳定表现，导致市场持续繁荣。” 鉴于近期新房销售强劲，陈估计五月的主要住宅交易可能超过 4,300 宗，从而将整体房地产交易提升至约 8,730 宗。摩根士丹利指出，香港住宅市场的稳步复苏正在推动该市办公室和零售领域的更广泛复苏。周一，这家美国投资银行将对该市房价的预测上调至今年增长 12%，此前为 10%，并预计到 2027 年将再上涨 5%。摩根士丹利还补充说，办公室领域可能会有所缓解，中环地区的租金预计将从之前的 3% 上调至 5%。预计到年底，零售租金将转为正增长，但仍可能出现 3% 的年度下降，而 2025 年则预计下降 10%。上周，香港金融管理局重申了对利率不确定方向的警告，因中东持续紧张局势扰乱了全球的石油供应。该市的事实上的中央银行表示，美国的利率变动受到伊朗冲突的影响，这导致油价上涨，从而影响了消费价格。尽管自上个月以来实现了停火，分析师预测战争将降低今年降息的可能性。香港的货币政策与美国保持一致，以维持本地货币与美元的挂钩。晨星现在预计今年将进行一次降息，而不是两次，而摩根大通则预测在接下来的四个季度将暂停加息。</p>

恒生指数

安硕恒生指数

南方恒生指数ETF

<p>香港的房地产市场在四月份出现了显著增长，交易量达到四个月来的最高点，住宅销售创下 24 个月来的峰值。共记录了 8,692 宗交易，比三月份增长了 12.3%，总销售额上升了 17%，达到 729 亿港元。新房和二手房的销售环比增长了 16.7%。分析师预测市场将继续增长，摩根士丹利将其房价预测上调至今年增长 12%。尽管对利率和地缘政治紧张局势存在不确定性，但市场在各个领域显示出韧性和复苏</p>

<p>Hong Kong property transactions surged to a four-month high in April, while the value and volume of home sales hit their highest level in 24 months, according to the latest official data, underscoring the resilience of the city’s real estate sector amid uncertainties over interest rates and the US-Israel war on Iran. A total of 8,692 transactions across homes, offices, shops, car parking spots and industrial spaces were concluded last month, up 12.3 per cent from March’s 7,737 deals, according to data released on Tuesday by the Land Registry. The total sales value rose 17 per cent to about HK$72.9 billion (US$9.3 billion). Sales of new and second-hand residential units climbed 16.7 per cent month on month to 7,368 in April, the highest since April 2024 when 8,551 units were sold, the data showed. The sales value in April increased about 15.4 per cent over March to HK$63.67 billion. “The number of new home sales registrations has rebounded significantly, coupled with stable performance in the secondary market and commercial and industrial properties, resulting in a continued boom in the market,” said Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at Ricacorp Properties. Given the strong sales of new homes in recent weeks, Chan estimated that primary residential transactions in May could exceed 4,300, boosting overall property deals to about 8,730. A steady recovery in the city’s residential market was spurring a wider recovery for the city’s office and retail segments, according to Morgan Stanley. On Monday, the US investment bank upgraded its forecast for the city’s home prices to a 12 per cent increase this year from 10 per cent previously, and anticipated another 5 per cent rise in 2027, it said in a report. Morgan Stanley added that the office segment was likely to see some relief with Central district poised to command rent increases of 5 per cent from the previous estimate of 3 per cent. Retail rents were tipped to turn positive by year-end but would still likely log a yearly decline of 3 per cent, compared with a 10 per cent drop in 2025. Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reiterated its warning over the uncertain direction of interest rates amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted oil supplies across the world. The city’s de facto central bank said US interest-rate movements were affected by the conflict in Iran, which had led to higher oil prices and thereby impacted consumer prices. Despite a ceasefire since last month, analysts have forecast that the war would reduce the chances of a rate cut this year. Hong Kong’s monetary policy moves in lockstep with the US to maintain the local currency’s peg to the dollar. Morningstar was now expecting a single rate cut this year instead of two, while JPMorgan Chase forecast a rate pause over the next four quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据最新的官方数据，香港的房地产交易在四月份激增至四个月来的最高水平，而住宅销售的价值和数量达到了 24 个月来的最高水平，这突显了在利率不确定性和美国 - 以色列对伊朗战争背景下，该市房地产行业的韧性。根据土地注册处周二发布的数据，上个月共完成了 8,692 宗交易，包括住宅、办公室、商铺、停车位和工业用地，较三月份的 7,737 宗交易增长了 12.3%。总销售额上升了 17%，约为 729 亿港元（93 亿美元）。数据显示，四月份新建和二手住宅单位的销售环比增长了 16.7%，达到 7,368 宗，为 2024 年四月以来的最高水平，当时售出 8,551 个单位。四月份的销售额较三月份增加了约 15.4%，达到 636.7 亿港元。瑞安地产研究部负责人陈海超表示：“新房销售登记数量显著反弹，加上二手市场和商业及工业物业的稳定表现，导致市场持续繁荣。” 鉴于近期新房销售强劲，陈估计五月的主要住宅交易可能超过 4,300 宗，从而将整体房地产交易提升至约 8,730 宗。摩根士丹利指出，香港住宅市场的稳步复苏正在推动该市办公室和零售领域的更广泛复苏。周一，这家美国投资银行将对该市房价的预测上调至今年增长 12%，此前为 10%，并预计到 2027 年将再上涨 5%。摩根士丹利还补充说，办公室领域可能会有所缓解，中环地区的租金预计将从之前的 3% 上调至 5%。预计到年底，零售租金将转为正增长，但仍可能出现 3% 的年度下降，而 2025 年则预计下降 10%。上周，香港金融管理局重申了对利率不确定方向的警告，因中东持续紧张局势扰乱了全球的石油供应。该市的事实上的中央银行表示，美国的利率变动受到伊朗冲突的影响，这导致油价上涨，从而影响了消费价格。尽管自上个月以来实现了停火，分析师预测战争将降低今年降息的可能性。香港的货币政策与美国保持一致，以维持本地货币与美元的挂钩。晨星现在预计今年将进行一次降息，而不是两次，而摩根大通则预测在接下来的四个季度将暂停加息。</p>
</div>

Hong Kong home sales surge to 2-year high, boosting overall transactions

南华早报

摩根士丹利

晨星信息

摩根大通

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

香港房屋销售激增至两年高点，带动整体交易量上升