<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg"/></p>
<p>阿联酋意外退出 OPEC 标志着全球能源政治的一个转折点，表明从卡特尔纪律向市场驱动战略的转变，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍因战争干扰而受到阻碍。</p>
<p>这一举动结束了近六十年的成员资格，移除了卡特尔的第三大生产国，标志着 OPEC 历史上最具影响力的退出之一。</p>
<p>在与 <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong> 的独家对话中，<strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>，MB Commodities Capital 的创始人兼投资组合经理，以及 MB Commodity Corner 的作者，解释了阿联酋为何要打破沙特主导的生产限制，这一时机如何与地区冲突交织在一起，以及这对油价、OPEC 的凝聚力和全球能源市场的未来意味着什么。</p>
<p>Bengali 告诉 Invezz，阿联酋的退出将削弱 OPEC+ 对油市的影响，因为阿联酋希望最大化石油收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png"/></p>
<p>以下是编辑过的摘录；</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋退出 OPEC 究竟传达了其长期能源战略的什么信号？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 它希望最大化石油收入，而不是遵循 OPEC 强制的限产结构，这主要由沙特阿拉伯管理。</p>
<p>这两个国家在扩张计划后的财政盈亏平衡油价上存在差异。</p>
<p>此外，阿联酋因战争受到的影响更大，因此希望尽可能弥补这一损失。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一决定的时机有多重要，恰逢霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 这不会立即影响价格，但它正在为一旦海峡开放或战争平息后尽可能多地增产做好准备。</p>
<p>此外，他们在地区联盟方面也存在日益明显的差异（巴基斯坦/埃及/土耳其/伊朗）与阿联酋相比，后者与以色列和美国关系更为密切。</p>
<p>随着战争的持续，局势在变化，因此这一决定是相辅相成的。它开始为自己思考。</p>
<h2>OPEC 的影响力减弱</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋的退出会在短期内还是长期内削弱 OPEC+ 的凝聚力？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿联酋的退出将削弱 OPEC 未来的影响力，因为阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯是两个拥有最高剩余产能的成员，因此可以减少或增加生产以维持他们所希望的价格水平。</p>
<p>阿联酋的石油生产能力高达每天 500 万桶。然而，其产量受到 OPEC 既定配额限制的约束。</p>
<p>一旦石油流动稳定，或阿联酋成功通过替代管道重新引导石油流动，它将不再受 OPEC 配额的限制。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯将成为该集团的主要成员，因为即使是俄罗斯也希望尽可能多地增产，因为他们需要价格高于 75 美元/桶来资助对乌克兰的战争。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>该集团的其他成员规模太小，无法产生影响，但他们将广泛跟随沙特阿拉伯，但 OPEC 作为一个整体及其影响力将越来越小。未来将更多地关注市场份额，如果阿联酋随意增产，沙特阿拉伯将不会减产以维持更高的价格。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>这肯定会削弱 OPEC 的凝聚力，因为现在主要是沙特阿拉伯拥有最多的剩余产能——阿联酋也曾有剩余产能。</p>
<h2>生产与价格影响</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 现在阿联酋不再受配额限制，实际上可以向市场增产多少石油？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿联酋的石油生产已从战前的约 380 万桶/天降至 220 万桶/天，现在受到 OPEC+ 配额约 300 万桶/天的限制，尽管其生产能力约为 500 万桶/天。</p>
<p>该国正在探索增加出口的替代方案。</p>
<p>目前，重新引导的管道最多可处理 180 万桶/天，但阿联酋正在开发一条新管道以扩大其出口能力。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一举动主要是出于经济原因、地缘政治原因还是两者兼而有之？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 经济是一个重要因素。在地缘政治上，阿联酋在这场伊朗战争期间与美国/以色列的关系更加紧密；他们在过去几年在索马里/苏丹的政策以及与沙特阿拉伯的分歧非常明显。</p>
<p>但它一直在听从沙特阿拉伯的意见。自 2020 年签署亚伯拉罕协议以来，这改变了阿联酋及其在该地区成为更大参与者的愿望。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋之间的潜在竞争往往被忽视，因为中东通常被视为一个统一的实体。</p>
<p>目前，战后局势，特别是他们与伊朗和巴基斯坦等国的不同联盟，进一步推动了他们的分歧。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这将对未来几个月的全球油价产生什么影响？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 如果我们达成停火，价格将在 80-85 美元/桶的范围内。</p>
<p>这需要时间才能恢复，但一切都取决于美国和以色列是否决定再次攻击伊朗并摧毁其基础设施。</p>
<p>这是一个动态的局势，日新月异。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>但从长远来看，我不认为石油会成为问题，因为流动正在寻找替代路线。一旦局势正常化，价格将回到 65-70 美元/桶的范围。</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>阿联酋举动的后果</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 其他 OPEC 成员应该如何回应阿联酋的决定？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 目前的每个 OPEC 成员可能会遵循自己的政策，因为他们没有沙特阿拉伯或阿联酋那么大。</p>
<p>生产能力更高的国家，如伊朗或委内瑞拉（其行动目前受到美国的影响），可能会寻求增加产量。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一决定会加强还是削弱阿联酋在全球能源市场的影响力？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 现在阿联酋将基于纯经济因素进行生产和抽油，这意味着石油市场将根据供需自由波动，而不是受到价格控制。</p>
<p>因此，他们的市场份额将更高，因为他们将在高价时抽取更多石油，反之亦然。</p>
<h2>风险与机遇</h2>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋在退出 OPEC 后面临的最大风险和机遇是什么？</p>
<p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 最大的风险是它与以色列和美国紧密结盟，而与其最接近的邻国伊朗对立。</p>
<p>因此，防御对他们来说至关重要，但对于未来的冲突也是如此。</p>
<p>他们的机遇在于成为更大的参与者，并在非洲和全球舞台上更积极地参与扩张政策，与美国和以色列保持一致。</p>
<p>此外，这将改变外籍人士对阿联酋作为商业场所的看法，因为将需要严格的财务控制和形象重建。</p>
<p>他们会做得很好，但构成会改变，风险溢价也会变化。阿联酋将不再是默认的安全避风港。</p>
<p>我们已经看到资金流向香港和新加坡，例如，投资者有其他选择。</p>
<p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 最后，哪些石油消费国可能会受益于阿联酋退出 OPEC？</p>
<p>展望未来，价格将基于真实的供需，而不是因生产限制而人为压制。</p>
<p>在战争之前，油价本就过高，尽管有大量的闲置产能。</p>
<p>我们曾主张，在 COVID-19 之后，以及伊朗战争之前，油价的真实水平应该在每桶 50-60 美元，但 OPEC 故意将每日 1000 万桶的石油生产压制了比必要的时间更长，随后沙特阿拉伯又自愿减产三年，才最终提高产量。</p>
<p>我认为，如果他们让供应保持现状，石油市场会更早找到平衡，需求也能更好地恢复。</p>
<p>但 OPEC 一直在压制生产，因为他们太害怕让价格下跌。</p>
<p>短期的痛苦换取长期的收益更好，但他们已经投资了太多，需要石油美元来支付他们的计划。</p>
<p>在短期内，各国并没有受益，因为供应出现了中断，但随着时间的推移，他们将会在市场份额上更加自由。</p>
<p>采访后记：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 谈阿联酋为何刚刚退出 OPEC，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>

博时中证油气资源ETF

沙特阿拉伯 MSCI ETF - iShares

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

<p>阿联酋退出石油输出国组织（OPEC）标志着全球能源政治的重大转变，结束了近六十年的成员身份，并移除了该卡特尔的第三大生产国。在一次采访中，MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 解释道，阿联酋的目标是最大化石油收入，而不是遵循沙特主导的生产限制，尤其是在持续的地区冲突背景下。这一退出预计将削弱 OPEC 的影响力，因为阿联酋计划将产量提高到超过之前的配额，从而影响油价和市场动态</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/04/OPEC-and-UAE-flags.jpg"/></p>
<p>The United Arab Emirates’ surprise exit from OPEC marked a turning point in global energy politics, signalling a shift from cartel discipline to a market-driven strategy, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains choked by war disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿联酋意外退出 OPEC 标志着全球能源政治的一个转折点，表明从卡特尔纪律向市场驱动战略的转变，即使霍尔木兹海峡仍因战争干扰而受到阻碍。</p>
</div><p>The move ended nearly six decades of membership and removed the cartel's third-largest producer, marking one of the most consequential departures in OPEC's history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动结束了近六十年的成员资格，移除了卡特尔的第三大生产国，标志着 OPEC 历史上最具影响力的退出之一。</p>
</div><p>In an exclusive conversation with <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong>, <strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>, founder and portfolio manager at MB Commodities Capital and author of MB Commodity Corner, explains why the UAE is breaking away from Saudi-led production limits, how the timing intersects with regional conflict, and what this means for oil prices, OPEC’s cohesion, and the future of global energy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在与 <strong><em>Invezz</em></strong> 的独家对话中，<strong><em>Maleeha Bengali</em></strong>，MB Commodities Capital 的创始人兼投资组合经理，以及 MB Commodity Corner 的作者，解释了阿联酋为何要打破沙特主导的生产限制，这一时机如何与地区冲突交织在一起，以及这对油价、OPEC 的凝聚力和全球能源市场的未来意味着什么。</p>
</div><p>Bengali told Invezz that the departure will weaken OPEC+ influence on the oil market as the UAE looks to maximise oil revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bengali 告诉 Invezz，阿联酋的退出将削弱 OPEC+ 对油市的影响，因为阿联酋希望最大化石油收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz-wp-media.lon1.digitaloceanspaces.com/2026/05/MaleehaBengali.png"/></p>
<p>Below are edited excerpts;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是编辑过的摘录；</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What does the UAE’s exit from OPEC really signal about its long-term energy strategy?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋退出 OPEC 究竟传达了其长期能源战略的什么信号？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> It is looking to maximise oil revenue rather than adhere to an OPEC forced limit structure, which is mostly managed by Saudi Arabia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 它希望最大化石油收入，而不是遵循 OPEC 强制的限产结构，这主要由沙特阿拉伯管理。</p>
</div><p>The two countries have different fiscal breakeven oil prices post-expansion plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两个国家在扩张计划后的财政盈亏平衡油价上存在差异。</p>
</div><p>Also, the UAE has been hit more because of the war, so it is looking to make up for that as much as it can.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，阿联酋因战争受到的影响更大，因此希望尽可能弥补这一损失。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How significant is the timing of this decision, coming amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一决定的时机有多重要，恰逢霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> It is not going to impact prices today, but it is setting itself up to pump as much as it can, free for all markets once the Strait opens or war settles down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 这不会立即影响价格，但它正在为一旦海峡开放或战争平息后尽可能多地增产做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Also, there has been a growing difference in their regional alliances too (Pakistan/Egypt/Turkey/Iran) vs the UAE, which is more allied with Israel and the United States.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，他们在地区联盟方面也存在日益明显的差异（巴基斯坦/埃及/土耳其/伊朗）与阿联酋相比，后者与以色列和美国关系更为密切。</p>
</div><p>As the war drags on, the map is changing, so the decision comes hand in hand. It is starting to think for itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着战争的持续，局势在变化，因此这一决定是相辅相成的。它开始为自己思考。</p>
</div><h2>OPEC’s influence weaken</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>OPEC 的影响力减弱</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Will the UAE’s departure weaken OPEC+ cohesion in the short term or long term?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋的退出会在短期内还是长期内削弱 OPEC+ 的凝聚力？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> UAE's departure will weaken the influence of OPEC going forward, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia were the two members with the highest spare capacity and could hence reduce or increase production to maintain the level of prices they desired.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿联酋的退出将削弱 OPEC 未来的影响力，因为阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯是两个拥有最高剩余产能的成员，因此可以减少或增加生产以维持他们所希望的价格水平。</p>
</div><p>The UAE possesses an oil production capacity of up to 5 million barrels per day. However, its output has been constrained by OPEC's established quota limits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿联酋的石油生产能力高达每天 500 万桶。然而，其产量受到 OPEC 既定配额限制的约束。</p>
</div><p>Once the oil flow stabilises or the UAE successfully reroutes it through an alternative pipeline, it will no longer be restricted by the OPEC quotas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦石油流动稳定，或阿联酋成功通过替代管道重新引导石油流动，它将不再受 OPEC 配额的限制。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia will be the majority member in the group, as even Russia is looking to pump as much as it can, as they need prices above $75/bbl to fund their war against Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯将成为该集团的主要成员，因为即使是俄罗斯也希望尽可能多地增产，因为他们需要价格高于 75 美元/桶来资助对乌克兰的战争。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>The other members in the group are too small to make an impact but they will widely follow Saudi Arabia, but OPEC as a group and its influence will be less and less going forward. It will be more about market share and Saudi Arabia will not be cutting production to maintain higher prices if UAE is pumping at will.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>该集团的其他成员规模太小，无法产生影响，但他们将广泛跟随沙特阿拉伯，但 OPEC 作为一个整体及其影响力将越来越小。未来将更多地关注市场份额，如果阿联酋随意增产，沙特阿拉伯将不会减产以维持更高的价格。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>It will definitely weaken OPEC’s cohesion, as it is now mostly Saudi Arabia that has the most spare capacity – the UAE had spare capacity too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这肯定会削弱 OPEC 的凝聚力，因为现在主要是沙特阿拉伯拥有最多的剩余产能——阿联酋也曾有剩余产能。</p>
</div><h2>Production and impact on prices</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>生产与价格影响</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How much additional oil can the UAE realistically bring to the market now that it is no longer bound by quotas?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 现在阿联酋不再受配额限制，实际上可以向市场增产多少石油？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> The UAE's oil production, which had dropped to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from a pre-war level of approximately 3.8 million bpd, is now limited by its OPEC+ quota of around 3 million bpd, despite having a production capacity of about 5 million bpd.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 阿联酋的石油生产已从战前的约 380 万桶/天降至 220 万桶/天，现在受到 OPEC+ 配额约 300 万桶/天的限制，尽管其生产能力约为 500 万桶/天。</p>
</div><p>The country is exploring alternative options for increasing exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该国正在探索增加出口的替代方案。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the rerouted pipeline can handle a maximum of 1.8 million bpd, but the UAE is developing a new pipeline to expand its export capability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，重新引导的管道最多可处理 180 万桶/天，但阿联酋正在开发一条新管道以扩大其出口能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Is this move primarily driven by economics, geopolitics or both?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一举动主要是出于经济原因、地缘政治原因还是两者兼而有之？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Economics is a big factor. Geopolitically, the UAE has been aligned more with the US/Israel during this Iran war; their policies over the past few years in Somalia/Sudan and their disagreements with Saudi Arabia were quite apparent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 经济是一个重要因素。在地缘政治上，阿联酋在这场伊朗战争期间与美国/以色列的关系更加紧密；他们在过去几年在索马里/苏丹的政策以及与沙特阿拉伯的分歧非常明显。</p>
</div><p>But it had always listened to Saudi Arabia. Since the Abraham Accords signing in 2020, this has changed the UAE and its desire to be a bigger player in the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但它一直在听从沙特阿拉伯的意见。自 2020 年签署亚伯拉罕协议以来，这改变了阿联酋及其在该地区成为更大参与者的愿望。</p>
</div><p>The underlying competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE often went unnoticed because the Middle East was typically viewed as a unified entity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯与阿联酋之间的潜在竞争往往被忽视，因为中东通常被视为一个统一的实体。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the post-war landscape, particularly their differing alliances with countries like Iran and Pakistan, is further driving them apart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，战后局势，特别是他们与伊朗和巴基斯坦等国的不同联盟，进一步推动了他们的分歧。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What impact will this have on global oil prices in the coming months?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这将对未来几个月的全球油价产生什么影响？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> If we get a ceasefire, prices will be in the range of $80-$85/bbl.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 如果我们达成停火，价格将在 80-85 美元/桶的范围内。</p>
</div><p>That will take time to come back, but it all depends on whether the US and Israel decide to attack Iran again and take out its infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这需要时间才能恢复，但一切都取决于美国和以色列是否决定再次攻击伊朗并摧毁其基础设施。</p>
</div><p>It is a dynamic situation that is changing day by day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个动态的局势，日新月异。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>But longer term, I do not see oil being an issue as flows are making their ways and finding alternate routes. Long term, once things normalise, prices would be back in the $65-$70/bbl range.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>但从长远来看，我不认为石油会成为问题，因为流动正在寻找替代路线。一旦局势正常化，价格将回到 65-70 美元/桶的范围。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Fallout from UAE move</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿联酋举动的后果</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> How should other OPEC members respond to the UAE’s decision?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 其他 OPEC 成员应该如何回应阿联酋的决定？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Each of the current OPEC members is likely to follow its own policy, as they are not as big as, Saudi Arabia or the UAE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 目前的每个 OPEC 成员可能会遵循自己的政策，因为他们没有沙特阿拉伯或阿联酋那么大。</p>
</div><p>Countries with higher production capacity, such as Iran or Venezuela (whose actions are currently influenced by the US), will likely seek to increase their output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生产能力更高的国家，如伊朗或委内瑞拉（其行动目前受到美国的影响），可能会寻求增加产量。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Will this decision strengthen or weaken the UAE’s influence in global energy markets?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 这一决定会加强还是削弱阿联酋在全球能源市场的影响力？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> Now that the UAE will produce and pump based on pure economics, it means the oil market will be free to move based on demand/supply and not be price controlled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 现在阿联酋将基于纯经济因素进行生产和抽油，这意味着石油市场将根据供需自由波动，而不是受到价格控制。</p>
</div><p>So their market share will be higher as they will pump more at higher prices and vice versa.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，他们的市场份额将更高，因为他们将在高价时抽取更多石油，反之亦然。</p>
</div><h2>Risks and opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险与机遇</h2>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> What are the biggest risks and opportunities for the UAE after leaving OPEC?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 阿联酋在退出 OPEC 后面临的最大风险和机遇是什么？</p>
</div><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> The biggest risk is that it is firmly aligned with Israel and the United States and against Iran, its closest neighbour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Maleeha Bengali:</strong> 最大的风险是它与以色列和美国紧密结盟，而与其最接近的邻国伊朗对立。</p>
</div><p>So defense is critical for them now, but also for future conflicts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，防御对他们来说至关重要，但对于未来的冲突也是如此。</p>
</div><p>Their opportunities are being a bigger player and more involved in expansionist policies in Africa and on the world stage, aligned with the US and Israel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们的机遇在于成为更大的参与者，并在非洲和全球舞台上更积极地参与扩张政策，与美国和以色列保持一致。</p>
</div><p>Also, this will change the way expats view the UAE as a place to do business, given the strict financial controls and image rebuilding that will be required.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，这将改变外籍人士对阿联酋作为商业场所的看法，因为将需要严格的财务控制和形象重建。</p>
</div><p>They will do well, but the mix will change, and the risk premium as well. The UAE will no longer be a safe haven by default.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们会做得很好，但构成会改变，风险溢价也会变化。阿联酋将不再是默认的安全避风港。</p>
</div><p>We're already seeing money moving to Hong Kong and Singapore, for example, as investors have other choices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经看到资金流向香港和新加坡，例如，投资者有其他选择。</p>
</div><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> Finally, which are the oil-consuming countries that might benefit from the UAE’s departure from OPEC?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invezz:</strong> 最后，哪些石油消费国可能会受益于阿联酋退出 OPEC？</p>
</div><p>Going forward, prices will be based on real demand and supply and not artificially held back due to production curbs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，价格将基于真实的供需，而不是因生产限制而人为压制。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices were too high prior to the war to begin with, despite all the spare capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在战争之前，油价本就过高，尽管有大量的闲置产能。</p>
</div><p>We have argued that post COVID-19, and before the Iran war, the real price of oil should have been about $50-$60/bbl, but OPEC deliberately held back 10 million barrels per day of oil for a lot longer than needed, and then Saudi Arabia did extra voluntary cuts for an additional three years before raising production finally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们曾主张，在 COVID-19 之后，以及伊朗战争之前，油价的真实水平应该在每桶 50-60 美元，但 OPEC 故意将每日 1000 万桶的石油生产压制了比必要的时间更长，随后沙特阿拉伯又自愿减产三年，才最终提高产量。</p>
</div><p>I have argued that if they let the supply be as it is, the oil market would have found balance a lot earlier, and demand would have been able to recover better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为，如果他们让供应保持现状，石油市场会更早找到平衡，需求也能更好地恢复。</p>
</div><p>But OPEC kept holding back production as they were too scared to let prices fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 OPEC 一直在压制生产，因为他们太害怕让价格下跌。</p>
</div><p>Short term pain for long term gain is better, but they have invested too much and need oil dollars to pay for their plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期的痛苦换取长期的收益更好，但他们已经投资了太多，需要石油美元来支付他们的计划。</p>
</div><p>Near term, countries are not benefiting as there is a supply outage, but over time they will be more free for all market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期内，各国并没有受益，因为供应出现了中断，但随着时间的推移，他们将会在市场份额上更加自由。</p>
</div><p>The post Interview: MB Commodities' Maleeha Bengali on why UAE just walked out on OPEC appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>采访后记：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 谈阿联酋为何刚刚退出 OPEC，首次出现在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

Interview: MB Commodities' Maleeha Bengali on why UAE just walked out on OPEC

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采访：MB Commodities 的 Maleeha Bengali 谈论阿联酋为何刚刚退出 OPEC