<p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi 和 Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>‘如果美国无法融资其债务，就没有 “打破玻璃” 的解决方案，’ 前财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦表示。</p>
<p>这是否为另一个轻松获利的债券市场交易铺平了道路？</p>
<p>又到了这个时候。</p>
<p>在过去一周，30 年期国债收益率一直在 5% 的门槛附近徘徊，因通胀预期上升和实际利率的双重打击，全球债券市场受到影响。</p>
<p>实际上，许多国际债券市场受到的打击甚至比美国更严重。自伊朗冲突开始以来，30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 截至周一已上升了 35 个基点。相比之下，日本 30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMBMKJP-30Y 上涨了约 39 个基点，数据显示。</p>
<p>自 2022 年底以来，在收益率达到 5% 或略高于这一心理重要水平时购买 “长期债券” 一直是交易者可靠的赚钱方式。在几乎每种情况下，达到或突破 5% 水平后，收益率都会迅速下降。任何认为债券便宜并决定做多的人都可以获得可观的利润——无论是使用像 iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF TLT 或 Direxion Daily 20+ 年期国债牛市 3 倍 ETF TMF 这样的 ETF，还是通过期货市场交易，投资者可以获得更大的杠杆。</p>
<p>一个水平被测试的次数越多……</p>
<p>但投资者已经在争论这次交易是否会像以前那样轻松获利。</p>
<p>在他最近的一篇 Substack 文章中，Against All Odds Research 的 Jason Perz 表示，大家都在关注 30 年期国债的 5% 水平，因为交易者逐渐认为美联储今年加息的可能性大于降息。自 2023 年夏季以来，美联储没有加息。最近一次降息是在 12 月。</p>
<p>Perz 表示，认为 5% 是收益率某种不可逾越的天花板的想法是错误的。</p>
<p>‘他们看到反复的测试，大多数人得出的结论是债券根本无法再下跌。这正是错误所在，’Perz 说。债券价格与收益率呈反向移动，因此收益率上升意味着价格下降，反之亦然。</p>
<p>‘技术分析中最简单的真理之一是，水平被测试的次数越多，突破的可能性就越大，’ 他补充道。</p>
<p>其他人则更加乐观。尽管最新数据显示 3 月份通胀压力有所上升——消费者价格指数的同比头条率达到 3.3%，为两年来的最高水平——但 FHN Financial 的宏观策略师 Will Compernolle 在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示，买入债券的冲动依然强烈。</p>
<p>此外，Compernolle 认为，如果伊朗冲突持续，能源价格的上涨最终将对美国经济造成影响。投资者已经变得自满，因为期货市场的能源价格已从峰值回落，但 Compernolle 担心未来可能会面临更多经济痛苦。</p>
<p>‘我认为 10 年期国债或 30 年期国债不会变得更便宜，’ 他说。</p>
<p>其他人表示，现在这个交易开始看起来有趣。MarketWatch 询问时，ETF 行业资深人士 Matt Tuttle 表示，他 “不会反对” 在 Direxion 的杠杆国债 ETF PMF 中采取多头头寸。</p>
<p>没有简单的解决方案</p>
<p>当然，关于美国财政状况可持续性的担忧已经存在多年。没有简单的解决方案，许多人担心如果不采取措施减少美国的长期预算赤字，美国的借贷成本可能会在未来几年继续上升。</p>
<p>前财政部长亨利·保尔森在 4 月警告称，如果国债市场需求崩溃，美国需要一个紧急的 “打破玻璃” 计划。保尔森在 2008 年全球金融危机期间担任财政部长。</p>
<p>‘不幸的是，我认为没有 “打破玻璃” 的解决方案，’ 史蒂文·姆努钦说，他是私募股权公司 Liberty Strategic Capital 的创始人，也是特朗普总统任内的前财政部长。</p>
<p>然而，姆努钦也不预期 “会有一个生死攸关的时刻，某一天我们醒来发现无法融资债务，’ 他在周二接受彭博电视采访时表示。</p>
<p>姆努钦表示，接近 5% 的 30 年期国债收益率反映了伊朗战争带来的通胀不确定性，但也反映了融资美国长期所需的更高成本。</p>
<p>他指出，疫情时代 “在某种程度上使万亿支出变得正常化”，并补充说，未来需要两党支持来削减强制性支出。</p>
<p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二国债收益率回落，30 年期收益率在东部时间下午 3 点降至 4.982%，下降了 4.3 个基点。2 年期 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 和 10 年期国债收益率也有所下降。</p>
<p>Chelsea Ng 贡献。</p>
<p>-Joseph Adinolfi -Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-05-26 1848ET</p>

美国中期国债 ETF - iShares

1-3年 美国国债 ETF - iShares

20 年期以上美国国债 ETF - iShares

美国超长期国债 ETF - Vanguard

组合长期国债 ETF - SPDR

美债市场指数 ETF - Vanguard

<p>30 年期国债收益率已接近 5%，引发了对这一交易策略可靠性的质疑。尽管过去的趋势表明收益率在突破这一水平后会下降，但当前的通胀预期和潜在的美联储加息则带来了不确定性。分析师们意见不一；一些人认为 5% 的水平可能无法维持，而另一些人则认为长期持有有其价值。关于美国财政可持续性的担忧依然存在，前财政官员警告可能会出现借款成本上升的情况。近期国债收益率有所回落，反映出市场的持续波动</p>

<p>By Joseph Adinolfi and Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi 和 Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>'There is not a &#34;break-the-glass&#34; solution,' says former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin of backup plans if the U.S. can't finance its debt</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘如果美国无法融资其债务，就没有 “打破玻璃” 的解决方案，’ 前财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦表示。</p>
</div><p>Is this a setup for another slam-dunk bond-market trade?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是否为另一个轻松获利的债券市场交易铺平了道路？</p>
</div><p>It's about that time again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>又到了这个时候。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has been brushing up against the 5% threshold over the past week, as rising inflation expectations and real interest rates have been a one-two punch for the global bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，30 年期国债收益率一直在 5% 的门槛附近徘徊，因通胀预期上升和实际利率的双重打击，全球债券市场受到影响。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, many international bond markets have been hit even harder than the U.S. Since the start of the Iran conflict, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y had risen by 35 basis points through Monday. By comparison, the yield on the Japanese 30-year bond BX:TMBMKJP-30Y had gained approximately 39 points, Dow Jones Market Data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，许多国际债券市场受到的打击甚至比美国更严重。自伊朗冲突开始以来，30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 截至周一已上升了 35 个基点。相比之下，日本 30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMBMKJP-30Y 上涨了约 39 个基点，数据显示。</p>
</div><p>Since late 2022, buying the &#34;long bond&#34; when yields were at 5% - or slightly above that psychologically important level - has been a reliable moneymaker for traders. In almost every instance, a reaching or breaching of the 5% level was followed by a swift decline in yields. Anybody who felt bonds were cheap and decided to go long could have booked a tidy profit - either using an ETF like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT or the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF TMF, or simply by trading in the futures market, where investors can access even greater leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年底以来，在收益率达到 5% 或略高于这一心理重要水平时购买 “长期债券” 一直是交易者可靠的赚钱方式。在几乎每种情况下，达到或突破 5% 水平后，收益率都会迅速下降。任何认为债券便宜并决定做多的人都可以获得可观的利润——无论是使用像 iShares 20+ 年期国债 ETF TLT 或 Direxion Daily 20+ 年期国债牛市 3 倍 ETF TMF 这样的 ETF，还是通过期货市场交易，投资者可以获得更大的杠杆。</p>
</div><p>The more times a level gets tested...</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个水平被测试的次数越多……</p>
</div><p>But investors are already debating whether such a trade would pay off as readily this time around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者已经在争论这次交易是否会像以前那样轻松获利。</p>
</div><p>In a recent post on his Substack, Jason Perz of Against All Odds Research said that everybody is watching the 5% level on the 30-year bond, as traders come around to the view that a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike is more likely than a rate cut this year. The Fed hasn't raised interest rates since the summer of 2023. Its most recent rate cut came in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他最近的一篇 Substack 文章中，Against All Odds Research 的 Jason Perz 表示，大家都在关注 30 年期国债的 5% 水平，因为交易者逐渐认为美联储今年加息的可能性大于降息。自 2023 年夏季以来，美联储没有加息。最近一次降息是在 12 月。</p>
</div><p>The idea that 5% represents some kind of impenetrable ceiling for yields is misguided, Perz said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Perz 表示，认为 5% 是收益率某种不可逾越的天花板的想法是错误的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They see the repeated tests, and the conclusion most people are drawing is that bonds simply can't break lower from here. That's exactly where the mistake is,&#34; Perz said. Bond prices move inversely with yields, so rising yields mean lower prices, and vice versa.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘他们看到反复的测试，大多数人得出的结论是债券根本无法再下跌。这正是错误所在，’Perz 说。债券价格与收益率呈反向移动，因此收益率上升意味着价格下降，反之亦然。</p>
</div><p>&#34;One of the simplest truths in technical analysis is that the more times a level gets tested, the more likely it is to break,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘技术分析中最简单的真理之一是，水平被测试的次数越多，突破的可能性就越大，’ 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Others are more sanguine. Even though the latest data showed that inflationary pressures crept higher in March - with the year-over-year headline rate on the consumer-price index hitting 3.3%, the highest in two years - the instinct to buy the dip in bonds remains strong, said Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN Financial, during an interview with MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人则更加乐观。尽管最新数据显示 3 月份通胀压力有所上升——消费者价格指数的同比头条率达到 3.3%，为两年来的最高水平——但 FHN Financial 的宏观策略师 Will Compernolle 在接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示，买入债券的冲动依然强烈。</p>
</div><p>Plus, Compernolle thinks that if the conflict in Iran drags on, higher energy (CL00) (BRN00) prices will eventually dent the U.S. economy. Investors have gotten complacent because energy prices in the futures market have retreated from their peak levels, but Compernolle worries more economic pain likely lies ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Compernolle 认为，如果伊朗冲突持续，能源价格的上涨最终将对美国经济造成影响。投资者已经变得自满，因为期货市场的能源价格已从峰值回落，但 Compernolle 担心未来可能会面临更多经济痛苦。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't see the 10-year [Treasury note] or the 30-year [Treasury bond] getting cheaper from here,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘我认为 10 年期国债或 30 年期国债不会变得更便宜，’ 他说。</p>
</div><p>Others said the trade was starting to look interesting now. Asked by MarketWatch, Matt Tuttle, an ETF-industry veteran who shares some of his trades on X, said he &#34;wouldn't argue&#34; against taking a long position in PMF, the levered Treasury ETF from Direxion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人表示，现在这个交易开始看起来有趣。MarketWatch 询问时，ETF 行业资深人士 Matt Tuttle 表示，他 “不会反对” 在 Direxion 的杠杆国债 ETF PMF 中采取多头头寸。</p>
</div><p>No easy solution</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有简单的解决方案</p>
</div><p>To be sure, worries about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal situation have been percolating for years. There is no easy solution, and many are worried that U.S. borrowing costs could continue to climb in the years ahead if nothing is done to reduce the U.S.'s perennial budget deficits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，关于美国财政状况可持续性的担忧已经存在多年。没有简单的解决方案，许多人担心如果不采取措施减少美国的长期预算赤字，美国的借贷成本可能会在未来几年继续上升。</p>
</div><p>Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned in April that the U.S. needs an emergency &#34;break-the-glass&#34; plan if demand were to collapse in the Treasury market. Paulson was at the helm of the Treasury during the 2008 global financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前财政部长亨利·保尔森在 4 月警告称，如果国债市场需求崩溃，美国需要一个紧急的 “打破玻璃” 计划。保尔森在 2008 年全球金融危机期间担任财政部长。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I, unfortunately, think there is not a 'break-the-glass' solution,&#34; said Steven Mnuchin, founder of private-equity firm Liberty Strategic Capital and former Treasury Secretary during President Trump's first term in office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘不幸的是，我认为没有 “打破玻璃” 的解决方案，’ 史蒂文·姆努钦说，他是私募股权公司 Liberty Strategic Capital 的创始人，也是特朗普总统任内的前财政部长。</p>
</div><p>Yet Mnuchin also isn't anticipating &#34;a make-or-break moment where one day we wake up and we can't finance the debt,&#34; he said Tuesday during a Bloomberg TV interview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，姆努钦也不预期 “会有一个生死攸关的时刻，某一天我们醒来发现无法融资债务，’ 他在周二接受彭博电视采访时表示。</p>
</div><p>Mnuchin said a 30-year bond yield near 5% reflects inflation uncertainty from the Iran war, but also the higher costs required to finance the U.S. on a longer-term basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>姆努钦表示，接近 5% 的 30 年期国债收益率反映了伊朗战争带来的通胀不确定性，但也反映了融资美国长期所需的更高成本。</p>
</div><p>The pandemic era &#34;kind of normalized trillion-dollar spending,&#34; he noted, adding that it will take bipartisan support to cut mandatory spending down the road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，疫情时代 “在某种程度上使万亿支出变得正常化”，并补充说，未来需要两党支持来削减强制性支出。</p>
</div><p>Treasury yields retreated on Tuesday, with the 30-year rate falling 4.3 basis points to 4.982% as of 3 p.m. Eastern time, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields on the 2-year BX:TMUBMUSD02Y and 10-year Treasury notes also declined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据道琼斯市场数据，周二国债收益率回落，30 年期收益率在东部时间下午 3 点降至 4.982%，下降了 4.3 个基点。2 年期 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 和 10 年期国债收益率也有所下降。</p>
</div><p>Chelsea Ng contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chelsea Ng 贡献。</p>
</div><p>-Joseph Adinolfi -Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joseph Adinolfi -Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-05-26 1848ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-05-26 1848ET</p>
</div>

Betting on long Treasury bonds when yields near 5% has been a slam-dunk trade over the past few years. Is this time different?

Dow Jones

20 年期以上美国国债 3 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

第一地平线

FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION 6.50% DEP SHS REP 1/4000 PER PFD SER E

FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/400 NON CUM PER PFD SER C

FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/400 NON CUM PER PFD SER B

FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/4000 INT NON CUM PFD H WI

FIRST HORIZON CORPORATION DEP SHS REPSTG 1/4000TH PERP PFD SER F

在过去几年中，当收益率接近 5% 时，押注长期国债一直是一个稳操胜券的交易。这次会有所不同吗？