<p>外汇期货头寸显示出美元、日元和加元的格局正在发生变化，大型投机者和资产管理者的头寸都有显著变化。最新的 COT 报告强调了美元敞口的下降，日元空头在怀疑干预后迅速平仓，以及加元头寸可能的转折点。</p>
<p>尽管美元指数仍然承压，但头寸显示下行空间可能有限。同时，交易者正在重新评估对 USD/CAD 的看涨押注，并减少对日元的看跌敞口，为近期外汇方向提供新的线索。</p>
<p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>外汇期货头寸：美元、USD/JPY、GBP/USD、AUD/USD | COT 报告</li>
<li>AUD/USD、NZD/USD 延续涨势，尽管 AUD/NZD 闪现反转风险</li>
<li>USD/JPY 因日元因再次怀疑干预而暴跌至 158</li>
<li>美元前景：看涨的季节性与波动风险相遇</li>
</ul>
<h2>COT 报告分析：美元指数、USD/JPY 和 USD/CAD 期货头寸</h2>
<h3>COT 报告中的大型投机者头寸</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>美元：</strong> 上周整体期货敞口下降了 47 亿美元，降至 62 亿美元。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 大型投机者和资产管理者的净多欧元头寸减少了 9000 份合约，主要是由于增加了空头。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 两组的净空头增加了 12000 份合约，空头增加而多头减少。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 怀疑的财政部干预促使交易者将净空日元敞口减少了 56300 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 瑞士法郎的净多头增加了 12700 份合约，而空头基本保持不变。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 对多头的强劲需求使得对加元期货的净敞口减少了 37600 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 大型投机者将净多头增加了 6800 份合约，接近 13 年来的高点。</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD：</strong> 资产管理者将净空头推高至 15 周高点，增加了 1500 份合约。</li>
</ul>
<h3>资产管理者头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h2>外汇期货头寸 | COT 报告 (IMM 数据)</h2>
<h3>美元指数 (DXY) 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>美元自 3 月底以来下跌约 3%，市场自 11 月以来多次未能有效维持在 100 以上。过去六周中有五周收盘下跌，尽管看跌动能似乎正在减弱。由于美国和伊朗之间的协议没有进展，美元的下行潜力可能有限，而上行压力开始积聚。</p>
<p>通过期货对美元的整体敞口上周下降了 47 亿美元，降至 62 亿美元。然而，相对于 2 月份的低点，它仍然处于较高水平，且距离 4 月份的高点并不远。从这个角度来看，美元指数可能相对于整体头寸显得被低估。</p>
<p>此外，资产管理者的净多头敞口增加了 2600 份合约，达到 10800 份合约，自 3 月初以来一直保持净多头。考虑到这一群体通常比大型投机者更具前瞻性，我倾向于忽视后者上周接近转为净空头的事实。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<h3>USD/JPY 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>由于怀疑的财政部干预，日元的看跌波动性激增，迫使看跌押注退出其头寸。大型投机者减少了 37800 份空头——这是自 2024 年 8 月以来最快的周降幅。多头仅增加了 2500 份，显示出在波动时期的谨慎。资产管理者将其空头敞口减少了 13300 份合约——这是自 2024 年 12 月以来最快的周降幅。同样，多头仅略微增加了 2600 份合约。</p>
<p>我在干预分析报告中提到，财政部的前几轮干预通常与 USD/JPY 的多月高点和百分比上的双位数下降相吻合。这使得 USD/JPY 目前在我的 ‘逢高做空’ 观察名单中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
<p>大型投机者的净空头敞口减少了 23800 份，标志着 14 周以来最快的周变化，净空头仅为 14700 份合约。然而，周五疲弱的加拿大就业数据和更广泛的加元疲软表明，这可能是投机者时机不当的举动。</p>
<p>此外，资产管理者可能也在质疑他们增加净多头敞口 13000 份合约的决定，使头寸升至六周高点的 20800 份合约。</p>
<p>随着 USD/CAD 结束四周的下跌，加元期货暗示每周图表上可能出现的反转高点，我们可能会在接下来的一周看到看涨押注的反转。</p>
<p>CFTC COT 报告图表显示 USD/CAD 期货头寸，大型投机者的净空头减少，资产管理者的多头增加，价格暗示可能的反转。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>来源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

德银美元指数 做空 - PowerShares

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

加元 做多 - CurrencyShares

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>最新的 COT 报告显示，美元、日元和加元的外汇期货头寸发生了显著变化。美元的敞口减少，而在怀疑干预后，日元的空头头寸显著减少。加元的头寸显示出潜在的变化，因为交易者正在重新评估他们的策略。尽管美元指数面临压力，但报告表明下行潜力有限。此外，交易者正在调整对美元/加元和日元的头寸，表明市场动态正在演变</p>

<p>FX futures positioning reveals a shifting landscape for the US dollar, yen and Canadian dollar, with notable changes across large speculators and asset managers. The latest COT report highlights falling USD exposure, a sharp unwind of yen shorts following suspected intervention, and a potential turning point for CAD positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇期货头寸显示出美元、日元和加元的格局正在发生变化，大型投机者和资产管理者的头寸都有显著变化。最新的 COT 报告强调了美元敞口的下降，日元空头在怀疑干预后迅速平仓，以及加元头寸可能的转折点。</p>
</div><p>While the US dollar index remains under pressure, positioning suggests downside may be limited. At the same time, traders are reassessing bullish bets on USD/CAD and reducing bearish exposure to the yen, offering fresh clues for near-term FX direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美元指数仍然承压，但头寸显示下行空间可能有限。同时，交易者正在重新评估对 USD/CAD 的看涨押注，并减少对日元的看跌敞口，为近期外汇方向提供新的线索。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相关分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD | COT Report</li>
<li>AUD/USD, NZD/USD Extend Gains, Though AUD/NZD Flashes Reversal Risk</li>
<li>USD/JPY Plunges from 158 as Yen Surges on Another Suspected Intervention</li>
<li>US Dollar Outlook: Bullish May Seasonality Meets Volatility Risk</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外汇期货头寸：美元、USD/JPY、GBP/USD、AUD/USD | COT 报告</li>
<li>AUD/USD、NZD/USD 延续涨势，尽管 AUD/NZD 闪现反转风险</li>
<li>USD/JPY 因日元因再次怀疑干预而暴跌至 158</li>
<li>美元前景：看涨的季节性与波动风险相遇</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>COT Report Analysis: USD Index, USD/JPY and USD/CAD Futures Positioning</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>COT 报告分析：美元指数、USD/JPY 和 USD/CAD 期货头寸</h2>
</div><h3>Large Speculator Positioning from the COT report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>COT 报告中的大型投机者头寸</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122741-1.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>US Dollar:</strong> Aggregate futures exposure fell by $4.7 billion last week to $6.2 billion.</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD:</strong> Net-long euro positions dropped by 9k contracts among large speculators and asset managers, driven by increased shorting.</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD:</strong> Net shorts rose by 12k contracts across both groups, as shorts increased and longs were trimmed.</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY:</strong> Suspected MoF intervention prompted traders to cut net-short yen exposure by 56.3k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF:</strong> Gross longs on the Swiss franc climbed 12.7k contracts, while shorts remained broadly unchanged.</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD:</strong> Stronger demand for longs reduced net-exposure to Canadian dollar futures by 37.6k contracts.</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD:</strong> Large speculators lifted net longs by 6.8k contracts, nearing a 13-year high.</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD:</strong> Asset managers nudged net shorts to a 15-week high, rising by 1.5k contracts.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>美元：</strong> 上周整体期货敞口下降了 47 亿美元，降至 62 亿美元。</li>
<li><strong>EUR/USD：</strong> 大型投机者和资产管理者的净多欧元头寸减少了 9000 份合约，主要是由于增加了空头。</li>
<li><strong>GBP/USD：</strong> 两组的净空头增加了 12000 份合约，空头增加而多头减少。</li>
<li><strong>USD/JPY：</strong> 怀疑的财政部干预促使交易者将净空日元敞口减少了 56300 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CHF：</strong> 瑞士法郎的净多头增加了 12700 份合约，而空头基本保持不变。</li>
<li><strong>USD/CAD：</strong> 对多头的强劲需求使得对加元期货的净敞口减少了 37600 份合约。</li>
<li><strong>AUD/USD：</strong> 大型投机者将净多头增加了 6800 份合约，接近 13 年来的高点。</li>
<li><strong>NZD/USD：</strong> 资产管理者将净空头推高至 15 周高点，增加了 1500 份合约。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3>Asset Manager Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>资产管理者头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122847-2.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CFTC (COT), CME, ICE, LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-EUR-USD-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h2>FX Futures Positioning | COT Report (IMM Data)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>外汇期货头寸 | COT 报告 (IMM 数据)</h2>
</div><h3>US Dollar Index (DXY) Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元指数 (DXY) 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>The US dollar is down around -3% from its late March high, with the market repeatedly failing to hold materially above 100 since November. It has closed lower in five of the past six weeks, although bearish momentum appears to be waning. With the US and Iran no closer to a deal, USD downside potential may be limited while upside pressures begin to build.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元自 3 月底以来下跌约 3%，市场自 11 月以来多次未能有效维持在 100 以上。过去六周中有五周收盘下跌，尽管看跌动能似乎正在减弱。由于美国和伊朗之间的协议没有进展，美元的下行潜力可能有限，而上行压力开始积聚。</p>
</div><p>Aggregate exposure to the USD via futures fell by $4.7 billion to $6.2 billion last week. However, it remains elevated relative to its February trough and not far below its April high. From that perspective, the US dollar index could appear oversold relative to aggregate positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过期货对美元的整体敞口上周下降了 47 亿美元，降至 62 亿美元。然而，相对于 2 月份的低点，它仍然处于较高水平，且距离 4 月份的高点并不远。从这个角度来看，美元指数可能相对于整体头寸显得被低估。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, net-long exposure among asset managers rose by 2.6k contracts to 10.8k contracts, and they have remained net-long since early March. Given this group tends to be several steps ahead of large speculators, I am inclined to overlook the fact that the latter were close to flipping to net-short exposure last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，资产管理者的净多头敞口增加了 2600 份合约，达到 10800 份合约，自 3 月初以来一直保持净多头。考虑到这一群体通常比大型投机者更具前瞻性，我倾向于忽视后者上周接近转为净空头的事实。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123439-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：ICE, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/JPY 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>The surge of bearish volatility on the Japanese yen stemming from suspected MOF intervention shook bearish bets out of their positions. Large speculators culled -37.8k gross-shorts – their fastest weekly drop since August 2024. The fact that longs only rose by 2.5k shows an air of caution on volatile times. Asset managers reduced their gross-short exposure by -13.3k contracts – their fastest weekly pace since December 2024. Again, longs were only up slightly by 2.6k contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于怀疑的财政部干预，日元的看跌波动性激增，迫使看跌押注退出其头寸。大型投机者减少了 37800 份空头——这是自 2024 年 8 月以来最快的周降幅。多头仅增加了 2500 份，显示出在波动时期的谨慎。资产管理者将其空头敞口减少了 13300 份合约——这是自 2024 年 12 月以来最快的周降幅。同样，多头仅略微增加了 2600 份合约。</p>
</div><p>I noted in my intervention-analysis reports that previous rounds from the MOF have generally coincided with multi-month tops on USD/JPY and double-digit declined in percentage terms. That keeps USD/JPY in my ‘fade into rallies’ watchlist for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在干预分析报告中提到，财政部的前几轮干预通常与 USD/JPY 的多月高点和百分比上的双位数下降相吻合。这使得 USD/JPY 目前在我的 ‘逢高做空’ 观察名单中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511122956-4.png"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>USD/CAD Futures Positioning | COT Report</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>USD/CAD 期货头寸 | COT 报告</h3>
</div><p>A 23.8k reduction in net-short exposure among large speculators marked the fastest weekly shift in 14 weeks, leaving net shorts at just -14.7k contracts. However, weak Canadian employment data on Friday and broader CAD weakness suggest this may have been a poorly timed move by speculators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型投机者的净空头敞口减少了 23800 份，标志着 14 周以来最快的周变化，净空头仅为 14700 份合约。然而，周五疲弱的加拿大就业数据和更广泛的加元疲软表明，这可能是投机者时机不当的举动。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, asset managers may also be questioning their decision to increase net-long exposure by 13.8k contracts, lifting positions to a six-week high of 20.8k contracts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，资产管理者可能也在质疑他们增加净多头敞口 13000 份合约的决定，使头寸升至六周高点的 20800 份合约。</p>
</div><p>With USD/CAD snapping a four-week losing streak and Canadian dollar futures hinting at a potential swing high on the weekly chart, we could see a reversal of bullish bets in the week ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 USD/CAD 结束四周的下跌，加元期货暗示每周图表上可能出现的反转高点，我们可能会在接下来的一周看到看涨押注的反转。</p>
</div><p>CFTC COT report chart showing USD/CAD futures positioning, with falling net shorts among large speculators and rising asset manager longs as prices hint at a potential reversal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CFTC COT 报告图表显示 USD/CAD 期货头寸，大型投机者的净空头减少，资产管理者的多头增加，价格暗示可能的反转。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260511123515-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：CME, CFTC (COT), LSEG</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_经济日历_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上关注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

FX Futures Positioning: USD Index, USD/JPY, USD/CAD | COT Report

Forex

芝加哥商品交易所

洲际交易所

London Stock Exchange Group plc

外汇期货持仓情况：美元指数、美元/日元、美元/加元 | COT 报告