摩根大通警告石油冲击可能导致通胀持续高企至 2027 年

摩根大通警告称，全球石油供应中断在四月份达到了 1370 万桶/日，这可能会使通胀持续高企至 2027 年。美国汽油价格已飙升至每加仑 4.52 美元，显示出需求的下降。该银行预测，消费者价格指数（CPI）将在 2027 年初之前保持在 3% 以上，如果油价持续高位，最坏情况下将超过 5%

Record supply gap: Global oil disruptions hit 13.7 million barrels per day in April, forcing heavy inventory drawdowns and leaving a 2 million bpd shortfall. Consumer squeeze: U.S. gas prices have climbed to $4.52 a gallon on average, with reduced driving and higher airfares already signaling demand destruction. Inflation outlook: JPMorgan sees CPI staying above 3% into early 2027, with worst-case scenarios topping 5% if oil prices remain elevated.