<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货大约在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈现出五五开的局面。</p>
<p>美国投资者正在抛售国债，因伊朗战争导致的能源成本上涨没有缓解的迹象。</p>
<p>由于伊朗战争导致的能源价格上涨，投资者在周二早些时候抛售美国政府债务，这给美国消费者的口袋带来了压力，并推高了生活成本。</p>
<p>在早盘交易中，&#34;长期&#34;30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 重新回到了心理上重要的 5% 水平，此前消费者通胀数据显示，4 月份年通胀率达到了三年来的最高点 3.8%。债券价格和收益率呈反向移动。</p>
<p>根据 AAA 的数据，目前全国汽油价格平均为每加仑 4.50 美元，这给美国消费者带来了很大的直接痛苦。接近历史高点的柴油价格也推动了食品、包裹以及其他通过卡车和铁路运输的商品的成本。</p>
<p>特朗普总统拒绝了德黑兰最近提出的结束伊朗战争的提议，焦点转向他本周的中国之行。随着夏季旅游季节的临近，消费者似乎没有太多缓解的希望。</p>
<p>&#34;一切都取决于接下来两到三周油价的走势，&#34;Mischler Financial Group 的固定收益专家兼董事总经理 Tom di Galoma 表示。&#34;油价持续上涨，人们找不到购买长期债券的真正理由。&#34;</p>
<p>根据 FactSet 的数据，全球布伦特原油（BRN00）周二上涨至每桶 107 美元以上，反映出今年迄今价格上涨了 77%。</p>
<p>通胀往往会对债券价值造成压力，因为其固定支付流被不断上涨的生活成本侵蚀，从而使其价值降低。生活成本的上升也可能迫使中央银行考虑加息，这可能会对股票 SPX 和债券造成伤害。</p>
<p>周二，投资者还在为新的国债供应做准备，财政部计划在下午早些时候拍卖 420 亿美元的 10 年期国债 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及周三拍卖 250 亿美元的 30 年期国债。</p>
<p>新的供应出现之际，美国联邦债务已达到约 30 万亿美元的&#34;惊人但可控&#34;水平，其中超过一半将在未来三年到期，依据富国银行投资研究所的报告。</p>
<p>富国银行团队表示，预计美国赤字将在未来三年内增加 5000 亿到 6000 亿美元的公共债务负担，如果通过更多国债发行来覆盖。</p>
<p>在近期，机构投资者通常在 30 年期国债收益率达到 5% 时积极购买美国债务。但与伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的对峙风险加深了已经被描述为历史性的油价冲击，这可能会抑制对市场上可用的最长美国政府债务的需求。</p>
<p>相关：摩根士丹利警告称，&#34;与时间赛跑&#34;：霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能在夏季将布伦特原油推高至每桶 150 美元。</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货大约在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈现出五五开的局面。</p>
<p>&#34;虽然加息是可能的，&#34;ClearBridge Investments 的高级投资策略分析师 Josh Jamner 表示，&#34;冲突的缓和和劳动力市场的疲软应使美联储暂时保持不变，我们认为在 2027 年降息的可能性仍然大于加息。&#34;</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>

7-10 年美国国债 ETF - iShares

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美国抗通胀债指数 ETF - Charles Schwab

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

通胀债券指数 ETF - iShares

<p>高通胀正在推动 30 年期国债收益率升至 5%，这主要是由于与伊朗战争相关的能源成本上升。美国消费者面临生活成本增加，汽油价格平均为每加仑 4.50 美元。投资者因对通胀和潜在加息的担忧而抛售国债。预计美国联邦债务将达到 30 万亿美元，并且预计将有大量新的国债供应。分析师表示，尽管加息是可能的，但由于当前的经济环境，美联储可能会保持观望</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>Fed-fund futures were pricing in roughly a coin toss in terms of the odds of a rate hike by March 2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货大约在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈现出五五开的局面。</p>
</div><p>U.S. investors are selling Treasurys, with no relief in sight from higher energy costs due to the Iran war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国投资者正在抛售国债，因伊朗战争导致的能源成本上涨没有缓解的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Investors were ditching U.S. government debt early Tuesday as higher energy prices from the Iran war pinch Americans' pocketbooks and push up the cost of living.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于伊朗战争导致的能源价格上涨，投资者在周二早些时候抛售美国政府债务，这给美国消费者的口袋带来了压力，并推高了生活成本。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the &#34;long&#34; 30-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD30Y reclaimed the psychologically important 5% level in morning trading after a reading of consumer inflation showed that it reached a three-year annual high of 3.8% in April. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在早盘交易中，&#34;长期&#34;30 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD30Y 重新回到了心理上重要的 5% 水平，此前消费者通胀数据显示，4 月份年通胀率达到了三年来的最高点 3.8%。债券价格和收益率呈反向移动。</p>
</div><p>Higher gas prices, which now average $4.50 a gallon nationally, according to AAA, are the source of much of the immediate pain for U.S. consumers. Diesel prices near record highs also flow through to the cost of groceries, packages and everything else delivered by truck and by rail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 AAA 的数据，目前全国汽油价格平均为每加仑 4.50 美元，这给美国消费者带来了很大的直接痛苦。接近历史高点的柴油价格也推动了食品、包裹以及其他通过卡车和铁路运输的商品的成本。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump rebuffed a recent offer from Tehran to end the Iran war, putting the focus on his trip to China this week. With the summer travel season approaching, there doesn't look to be much relief in sight for consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统拒绝了德黑兰最近提出的结束伊朗战争的提议，焦点转向他本周的中国之行。随着夏季旅游季节的临近，消费者似乎没有太多缓解的希望。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It all depends on what oil does in the next two to three weeks,&#34; said Tom di Galoma, a fixed-income specialist and managing director at Mischler Financial Group. &#34;The fact that oil continues to push higher, people don't find a really good reason to buy long bonds.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;一切都取决于接下来两到三周油价的走势，&#34;Mischler Financial Group 的固定收益专家兼董事总经理 Tom di Galoma 表示。&#34;油价持续上涨，人们找不到购买长期债券的真正理由。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Global Brent crude (BRN00) climbed above $107 a barrel Tuesday, reflecting a 77% increase in prices in the year so far, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet 的数据，全球布伦特原油（BRN00）周二上涨至每桶 107 美元以上，反映出今年迄今价格上涨了 77%。</p>
</div><p>Inflation tends to weigh on bond values because their fixed payment streams are eroded by a rising cost of living, making them worth less. A rising cost of living also can force central banks to consider interest-rate hikes, which can hurt both stocks SPX and bonds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀往往会对债券价值造成压力，因为其固定支付流被不断上涨的生活成本侵蚀，从而使其价值降低。生活成本的上升也可能迫使中央银行考虑加息，这可能会对股票 SPX 和债券造成伤害。</p>
</div><p>Investors on Tuesday also were bracing for new Treasury supply, with the department set to auction $42 billion in 10-year notes BX:TMUBMUSD10Y in the early afternoon and $25 billion in 30-year bonds Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，投资者还在为新的国债供应做准备，财政部计划在下午早些时候拍卖 420 亿美元的 10 年期国债 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y，以及周三拍卖 250 亿美元的 30 年期国债。</p>
</div><p>The new supply comes as the U.S. federal debt has reached a &#34;staggering but manageable&#34; level of about $30 trillion, more than half of which is set to mature over the next three years, according to a Wells Fargo Investment Institute report on the topic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新的供应出现之际，美国联邦债务已达到约 30 万亿美元的&#34;惊人但可控&#34;水平，其中超过一半将在未来三年到期，依据富国银行投资研究所的报告。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. deficit has been forecast to add another $5 trillion to $6 trillion to the public debt load over the next three years, if it's covered by more Treasury issuance, the Wells Fargo team said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>富国银行团队表示，预计美国赤字将在未来三年内增加 5000 亿到 6000 亿美元的公共债务负担，如果通过更多国债发行来覆盖。</p>
</div><p>In the recent past, institutional investors have often come out in force to buy U.S. debt when the 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5%. But the standoff with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz risks deepening what's already been described as a historic oil shock. That could dampen appetite for the longest form of U.S. government debt available on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在近期，机构投资者通常在 30 年期国债收益率达到 5% 时积极购买美国债务。但与伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的对峙风险加深了已经被描述为历史性的油价冲击，这可能会抑制对市场上可用的最长美国政府债务的需求。</p>
</div><p>Related: A 'race against time': Hormuz closure could push Brent crude to $150 a barrel by summer, warns Morgan Stanley</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相关：摩根士丹利警告称，&#34;与时间赛跑&#34;：霍尔木兹海峡关闭可能在夏季将布伦特原油推高至每桶 150 美元。</p>
</div><p>Fed-fund futures were roughly pricing in a coin toss in terms of the chances of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve by March 2027, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，联邦基金期货大约在 2027 年 3 月的加息概率上呈现出五五开的局面。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While rate hikes are possible,&#34; said Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, &#34;de-escalation of the conflict and muted strength in the labor market should keep the Fed on hold for the time being, with cuts still more likely than hikes in 2027 in our view.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;虽然加息是可能的，&#34;ClearBridge Investments 的高级投资策略分析师 Josh Jamner 表示，&#34;冲突的缓和和劳动力市场的疲软应使美联储暂时保持不变，我们认为在 2027 年降息的可能性仍然大于加息。&#34;</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1144ET</p>
</div>

High inflation is pushing yields to 5% on Treasury bonds

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高通胀正在使美国国债的收益率升至 5%