<p>作者：Claudia Assis</p>
<p>全球原油储备正在迅速枯竭，世界正面临稀缺</p>
<p>本月早些时候停泊在霍尔木兹海峡的船只。分析师警告，发达国家正面临能源短缺。</p>
<p>全球石油库存为因美国和以色列与伊朗的战争而导致的严重生产中断提供了缓冲，并使霍尔木兹海峡的航运几乎停滞。</p>
<p>但随着和平希望的破灭，以及美国通胀在周二达到三年来的最高点，分析师们对能源储备的减少发出了警报。</p>
<p>从地缘政治的角度来看，当前和平谈判的僵局以及各种最后通牒和延期的混合可能会持续很长时间，道琼斯能源炼油和石油产品执行董事 Jaime Brito 表示。</p>
<p>“但从能源的角度来看，这就像滚雪球一样，随着每周的过去，市场变得更加紧张，” Brito 说。</p>
<p>如果中东战争没有迅速结束，世界——包括依赖其丰富石油储备的七国集团——将 “开始面临稀缺”，瑞士信贷的分析师 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 警告说。摩根大通的分析师最近表示，发达国家的商业原油库存可能在 6 月初接近运营压力水平。</p>
<p>从表面上看，全球原油库存充足，包括公司持有的商业库存和政府持有的战略库存。但并不是每一桶原油都可以使用，低库存运营会带来自身的问题。</p>
<p>关于具体有多少库存的估计各不相同，因为公司和政府都在谨慎行事：他们不愿意让世界知道他们究竟储存了多少原油。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析师最近将全球商业和战略石油储备的原油库存估计为 57.5 亿桶，而法国外贸银行则认为约为 78 亿桶，摩根大通则认为约为 82 亿桶——这三者都是通过官方和私人数据的混合得出的估计。作为参考，2020 年时库存约为 90 亿桶。</p>
<p>“库存的减少在地理和产品类型上分布不均，最大的下降发生在市场上最不明显的领域，” 哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心的研究员、Kayrros 地理空间分析公司的联合创始人 Antoine Halff 表示。</p>
<p>“亚洲是来自中东湾的原油主要出口地，显然，原油库存下降的压力在这里最为严重，” 他说。亚太地区（不包括中国）的原油库存自 2 月 28 日战争开始以来下降了约 12%，降至至少 10 年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>国际能源署在 3 月协调释放了 4 亿桶来自其成员国的战略储备，美国战略石油储备提供了近一半的备用供应，从而提供了一些缓解。</p>
<p>需求抑制，包括全球航空公司的航班削减和主要在亚洲国家的限制，也有助于管理原油生产中的中断。根据摩根大通的数据，全球石油需求在 3 月平均下降了 280 万桶/天，并在 4 月跟踪到更大幅度的下降，达到 430 万桶/天，而在 5 月则下降了约 550 万桶/天。</p>
<p>“我们框架的一个核心假设是，原油库存消耗加速最终将迫使霍尔木兹海峡以某种方式重新开放，” 摩根大通的分析师在最近的一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>特朗普总统周二前往中国，与伊朗的谈判陷入僵局。脆弱的停火仍在继续。</p>
<p>油价期货（CL00）（BRN00）交易价格超过每桶 100 美元，美国通胀数据的上升——由于油价上涨，4 月达到近三年来的最高点 3.8%——令股市感到恐慌。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的分析师周一表示，油市正处于 “与时间赛跑” 的状态，因为如果霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月继续关闭，抑制原油价格波动的各种因素将会减弱。</p>
<p>一旦冲突结束，油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复，流量恢复仍需数周，市场可能仍会考虑潜在额外中断的风险。</p>
<p>沙特阿拉伯国有石油巨头沙特阿美（SA:2223）周一警告称，如果海峡继续关闭数周，市场重平衡可能会延续到 2027 年，“石油供应挑战” 将持续。</p>
<p>阿美重申了美国能源巨头埃克森美孚（XOM）和雪佛龙（CVX）本月早些时候所说的观点。这两家公司在最新季度的利润下降，管理层强调了冲突造成的混乱。</p>
<p>-Claudia Assis</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>

和顺石油

英国石油

<p>全球石油危机因储备迅速减少和地缘政治紧张局势而加剧，特别是美国和以色列与伊朗之间的持续冲突。分析师警告称，随着原油库存的减少，发达国家可能面临能源短缺，全球库存的估计差异显著。国际能源署最近发布的战略储备提供了暂时的缓解，但需求也急剧下降。根据沙特阿美的说法，如果霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭，石油市场可能面临严重干扰，供应挑战可能延续到 2027 年</p>

<p>By Claudia Assis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Claudia Assis</p>
</div><p>Global crude reserves are rapidly depleting, pushing the world toward scarcity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球原油储备正在迅速枯竭，世界正面临稀缺</p>
</div><p>Vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. Developed nations are facing energy scarcity, analysts warn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些时候停泊在霍尔木兹海峡的船只。分析师警告，发达国家正面临能源短缺。</p>
</div><p>Global oil stockpiles have provided a cushion for the severe production disruptions caused by the U.S. and Israel war's with Iran - and the resulting near-standstill of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球石油库存为因美国和以色列与伊朗的战争而导致的严重生产中断提供了缓冲，并使霍尔木兹海峡的航运几乎停滞。</p>
</div><p>But as hopes for peace falter and with U.S. inflation hitting a three-year high on Tuesday, analysts are sounding the alarm about dwindling energy reserves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着和平希望的破灭，以及美国通胀在周二达到三年来的最高点，分析师们对能源储备的减少发出了警报。</p>
</div><p>From a geopolitical perspective, the current stalemate in peace negotiations and the mix of ultimatums and extensions could go on for a long time, said Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil products at Dow Jones Energy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从地缘政治的角度来看，当前和平谈判的僵局以及各种最后通牒和延期的混合可能会持续很长时间，道琼斯能源炼油和石油产品执行董事 Jaime Brito 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But from the point of view of energy, this is a snowball - and every week that passes, you have tighter markets,&#34; Brito said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“但从能源的角度来看，这就像滚雪球一样，随着每周的过去，市场变得更加紧张，” Brito 说。</p>
</div><p>If the Middle East war doesn't end quickly, the world - including the Group of 7 developed nations that have relied on their ample oil reserves - &#34;will start facing scarcity,&#34; warned Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote. And analysts at J.P. Morgan recently said that developed countries' commercial crude stocks could be close to operational stress levels by early June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果中东战争没有迅速结束，世界——包括依赖其丰富石油储备的七国集团——将 “开始面临稀缺”，瑞士信贷的分析师 Ipek Ozkardeskaya 警告说。摩根大通的分析师最近表示，发达国家的商业原油库存可能在 6 月初接近运营压力水平。</p>
</div><p>On paper, global crude inventories are ample, and they include both commercial stockpiles held by companies and strategic stockpiles held by governments. But not every barrel is available, and operating with low levels of inventories causes its own problems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从表面上看，全球原油库存充足，包括公司持有的商业库存和政府持有的战略库存。但并不是每一桶原油都可以使用，低库存运营会带来自身的问题。</p>
</div><p>Estimates on exactly how much is stockpiled vary, because both companies and governments are playing it close to the vest: They are not keen on letting the world know exactly how much crude they have stockpiled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于具体有多少库存的估计各不相同，因为公司和政府都在谨慎行事：他们不愿意让世界知道他们究竟储存了多少原油。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently pegged global commercial and SPR crude inventories at 5.75 billion barrels, while Societe Generale sees it at about 7.8 billion barrels and J.P. Morgan has it at around 8.2 billion barrels - and all three used a mix of official and private data to arrive at their estimates. For context, there were about 9 billion barrels sitting in inventories back in 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析师最近将全球商业和战略石油储备的原油库存估计为 57.5 亿桶，而法国外贸银行则认为约为 78 亿桶，摩根大通则认为约为 82 亿桶——这三者都是通过官方和私人数据的混合得出的估计。作为参考，2020 年时库存约为 90 亿桶。</p>
</div><p>The draws have been &#34;unevenly distributed by geography and by type of product, and the biggest declines are in the least visible areas of the market,&#34; said Antoine Antoine Halff, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy and co-founder of Kayrros, a geospatial analytics company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“库存的减少在地理和产品类型上分布不均，最大的下降发生在市场上最不明显的领域，” 哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心的研究员、Kayrros 地理空间分析公司的联合创始人 Antoine Halff 表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Asia is the main outlet for crude oil from the Middle East Gulf, and that's predictably enough where the downward pressure on crude inventories has been most severe,&#34; he said. Crude stocks in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, have fallen by about 12% since Feb. 28, the start of the war, to their lowest levels in at least 10 years, he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“亚洲是来自中东湾的原油主要出口地，显然，原油库存下降的压力在这里最为严重，” 他说。亚太地区（不包括中国）的原油库存自 2 月 28 日战争开始以来下降了约 12%，降至至少 10 年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Providing some relief in March, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from the strategic reserves of its member countries, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve set to provide nearly half of the backup supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国际能源署在 3 月协调释放了 4 亿桶来自其成员国的战略储备，美国战略石油储备提供了近一半的备用供应，从而提供了一些缓解。</p>
</div><p>Demand curbs, including flight cuts from global airlines and restrictions mostly in Asian countries, have also helped manage the disruptions in crude production. According to J.P. Morgan, global oil demand fell by an average of 2.8 million barrels a day in March, and was tracking a larger decline of 4.3 million barrels a day in April and an even steeper decline of about 5.5 million barrels a day in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求抑制，包括全球航空公司的航班削减和主要在亚洲国家的限制，也有助于管理原油生产中的中断。根据摩根大通的数据，全球石油需求在 3 月平均下降了 280 万桶/天，并在 4 月跟踪到更大幅度的下降，达到 430 万桶/天，而在 5 月则下降了约 550 万桶/天。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A core assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another,&#34; J.P. Morgan analysts said in a recent note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们框架的一个核心假设是，原油库存消耗加速最终将迫使霍尔木兹海峡以某种方式重新开放，” 摩根大通的分析师在最近的一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>President Donald Trump headed for China on Tuesday with negotiations with Iran at a stalemate. A tenuous cease-fire remains in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统周二前往中国，与伊朗的谈判陷入僵局。脆弱的停火仍在继续。</p>
</div><p>Oil futures (CL00) (BRN00) traded above $100 a barrel, and the uptick in U.S. inflation numbers - which jumped to a nearly three-year high of 3.8% in April because of higher gas prices - spooked the stock market DJIA SPX COMP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价期货（CL00）（BRN00）交易价格超过每桶 100 美元，美国通胀数据的上升——由于油价上涨，4 月达到近三年来的最高点 3.8%——令股市感到恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Morgan Stanley on Monday said that oil markets are in a &#34;race against time,&#34; as the combination of factors that have been in place to curb crude-price jolts will fray if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed through June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的分析师周一表示，油市正处于 “与时间赛跑” 的状态，因为如果霍尔木兹海峡在 6 月继续关闭，抑制原油价格波动的各种因素将会减弱。</p>
</div><p>And once the conflict ends and tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it would still take weeks for flows to resume, and markets likely will still price in risk of potential additional disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一旦冲突结束，油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡的运输恢复，流量恢复仍需数周，市场可能仍会考虑潜在额外中断的风险。</p>
</div><p>Saudi Arabia's state-controlled oil giant Saudi Aramco (SA:2223) cautioned Monday that if the strait remains closed for weeks further, a market rebalance likely will extend into 2027 and &#34;oil supply challenges&#34; will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沙特阿拉伯国有石油巨头沙特阿美（SA:2223）周一警告称，如果海峡继续关闭数周，市场重平衡可能会延续到 2027 年，“石油供应挑战” 将持续。</p>
</div><p>Aramco echoed what U.S. energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) said earlier this month. Both companies' profits fell in the latest quarter, and their executives highlighted dislocations that the conflict is causing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿美重申了美国能源巨头埃克森美孚（XOM）和雪佛龙（CVX）本月早些时候所说的观点。这两家公司在最新季度的利润下降，管理层强调了冲突造成的混乱。</p>
</div><p>-Claudia Assis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Claudia Assis</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>05-12-26 1352ET</p>
</div>

Why the oil crisis could become a full-blown catastrophe within a month

Dow Jones

西方石油

标普油气设备与服务 ETF - SPDR

能源业 ETF - SPDR

美国布伦特原油期货基金

标普全球能源股指数 ETF - iShares

美国油气勘探与生产 ETF - iShares

油气服务 ETF - Market Vectors

K-1 免费原油策略 ETF - ProShares

美国 WTI 原油 ETF

油气开采 ETF - SPDR

炼油公司指数 ETF - VanEck Vectors

摩根大通

摩根士丹利

法兴银行(ADR)

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

埃克森美孚

雪佛龙

道琼斯指数

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

为什么石油危机可能在一个月内演变成一场全面的灾难