<ul>
<li>美元/日元再次跟踪美日利率差</li>
<li>美国通胀高企使市场放弃美联储降息预期</li>
<li>疑似干预减缓日元贬值，但未能逆转</li>
<li>交易者关注霍尔木兹海峡的头条新闻对通胀和收益率的影响</li>
</ul>
<h2>摘要</h2>
<p>美元/日元再次表现出利率差的特征，特别是在曲线的前端。随着最新的美国通胀数据的发布，这一关系再次显著显现，帮助解释为何该货币对再次逼近日本财政部在最近几周进行干预的水平。</p>
<p>但随着市场开始定价美联储加息的风险，因为美国通胀压力重新加速并扩大，现在更大的问题是日本当局是否愿意继续抵制主张日元贬值的基本力量。</p>
<h2>利率重新掌控</h2>
<p>美元/日元回归利率差作为主导驱动因素的转变在下面的相关性矩阵中可见。该货币对与美日前端收益率差之间的关系在短期和中期滚动窗口中显著增强，尤其是在过去一个月中，两年期收益率差的关系尤其稳固。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="447" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>与此同时，美元/日元与更广泛的风险情绪指标（如 VIX）之间的关系急剧减弱，进一步强化了利率而非避险需求、能源价格或更广泛市场波动再次驱动价格行动的观点。</p>
<p>重要的是，较短滚动窗口的相关性可能实际上低估了这种关系的强度，因为日本财政部在最近几周的疑似干预事件可能打断了本可能更紧密的美日利差与美元/日元上涨之间的关系。</p>
<h2>美国通胀脉动扩大</h2>
<p>随着市场迅速重新评估美国利率前景，相关性的变化发生在另一轮高企的通胀数据发布之后。4 月份生产者价格上涨 1.4%，为 2022 年 3 月以来的最大月度增幅，使年率达到 6.0%，为 2022 年 12 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="999" height="635" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>重要的是，通胀脉动并不局限于能源。服务价格上涨 1.2%，为四年来的最大增幅，而不包括食品和能源的核心商品价格当月上涨 0.7%，同比上涨 4.6%，指向经济中上游价格压力的扩大。</p>
<h2>美联储加息风险增加</h2>
<p>随着美国消费者继续积极消费，企业越来越多地将更高的投入成本转嫁给消费者，市场开始定价美联储下一步可能需要加息而非降息的风险。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="636" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>市场已经完全放弃了对美联储降息的预期，期货现在定价到年底大约 8 个基点的紧缩。更显著的是，到 2027 年底的隐含联邦基金利率现在高于当前有效基金利率，表明今年或明年不会有利率变动。</p>
<p>尽管远期交易量仍然相对较薄，但这表明即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什可能需要努力说服其他 FOMC 成员，尤其是在通胀压力扩大和经济增长因巨额与人工智能相关的资本支出而持续增长的情况下，放宽政策是合理的。</p>
<h2>干预遇上宏观现实</h2>
<p>美联储预期的重新定价，加上霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰和企业债务的高额发行，继续对国债收益率施加上行压力，助长了美元对日元的重新强势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="636" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>与此同时，如前所述，市场继续要求日本提供更高的收益率，以补偿感知的财政和经济风险。如果没有这种调整，替代机制仍然是进一步的日元贬值。</p>
<p>这使得日本当局处于越来越不舒服的位置。虽然疑似干预事件可能暂时减缓了日元贬值的速度，但如果美国通胀压力继续扩大，国债收益率持续上升，继续抵制扩大的利率差将变得越来越困难和昂贵。</p>
<h2>交易者关注北京头条</h2>
<p>注意力现在将转向周四晚间唐纳德·特朗普与习近平在北京的会晤。虽然市场显然期待围绕技术和投资的乐观头条，但对于美元/日元交易者来说，可能与伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡潜在重开的任何进展才是最重要的。</p>
<p>随着能源冲击继续直接影响美国通胀压力和国债收益率，任何缓解供应中断的降级尝试都可能减轻支撑美元对日元强势的能源富裕与贫乏之间的扩大差异。</p>
<h2>干预区再次承压</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1001" height="637" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>从技术角度来看，美元/日元在这一关键事件之前被夹在 157.92 的阻力位下，这是日本央行可能在本月早些时候被指示进行干预的水平。</p>
<p>突破可能表明日本财政部目前不愿继续抵制基本面，这可能允许价格向 50 日移动平均线或 159 阻力位上行。任何考虑在突破时做多的人都应确保风险管理到位，以限制资本风险，以防日本央行再次出手。</p>
<p>如果美元/日元保持在 157.92 以下，则可以选择在上方设定紧密止损的情况下开空，目标为 156.00，因为在其他被怀疑的干预事件中，该货币对在此处找到了大量愿意买入的买家。157 这个数字也值得注意，因为近期价格在该水平两侧交易了相当长的时间。</p>
<p>但如果考虑做空，交易者实际上依赖于日本央行再次出手，因为基本面仍然支持美元/日元进一步上涨。潜在的上涨空间可能更大。</p>
<p>尽管考虑到当前背景，我对指标的重视程度远低于平时，但在之前的干预事件后积累的下行动能已经开始减弱，RSI（14）和 MACD 现在在方向风险上发出越来越中性的信号。</p>

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

<p>美元/日元汇率受到美日利率差的影响，尤其是在最近的美国通胀数据公布之后。市场目前正在定价潜在的美联储加息，这引发了关于日本应对日元贬值的干预策略的质疑。美元/日元与美日收益率差之间的相关性增强，而更广泛的市场波动性影响较小。随着通胀压力的加大，美联储可能需要考虑加息，这使得日本的立场变得复杂。即将发生的地缘政治发展，特别是关于霍尔木兹海峡的情况，也可能影响美元/日元的动态</p>

<ul>
<li>USD/JPY once again tracking front-end US-Japan rate spreads</li>
<li>Hot US inflation sees markets abandon Fed cut expectations</li>
<li>Suspected intervention slowing yen weakness, not reversing it</li>
<li>Traders eye Hormuz headlines for inflation and yield implications</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元/日元再次跟踪美日利率差</li>
<li>美国通胀高企使市场放弃美联储降息预期</li>
<li>疑似干预减缓日元贬值，但未能逆转</li>
<li>交易者关注霍尔木兹海峡的头条新闻对通胀和收益率的影响</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Summary</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>摘要</h2>
</div><p>USD/JPY is once again trading like a rates differential story, particularly at the front-end of the curve. The relationship reasserted itself aggressively following the latest hot US inflation data, helping to explain why the pair is once again pressing up against levels where suspected intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance took place in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元再次表现出利率差的特征，特别是在曲线的前端。随着最新的美国通胀数据的发布，这一关系再次显著显现，帮助解释为何该货币对再次逼近日本财政部在最近几周进行干预的水平。</p>
</div><p>But with markets starting to price the risk of Fed rate hikes as US inflation pressures reaccelerate and broaden, the bigger question now is whether Japanese authorities are willing to continue pushing back against fundamental forces that are arguing for a weaker yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着市场开始定价美联储加息的风险，因为美国通胀压力重新加速并扩大，现在更大的问题是日本当局是否愿意继续抵制主张日元贬值的基本力量。</p>
</div><h2>Rates Regain Control</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率重新掌控</h2>
</div><p>The shift back towards rate differentials as the dominant driver of USD/JPY is visible in the correlation matrix below. Relationships between the pair and US-Japan front-end yield spreads have strengthened notably across short and medium-term rolling windows, with the relationship against two-year spreads especially firm over the past month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元回归利率差作为主导驱动因素的转变在下面的相关性矩阵中可见。该货币对与美日前端收益率差之间的关系在短期和中期滚动窗口中显著增强，尤其是在过去一个月中，两年期收益率差的关系尤其稳固。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095538-2.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the relationship between USD/JPY and broader risk sentiment gauges such as the VIX has weakened sharply, reinforcing the view that rates, rather than haven demand, energy prices, or broader market volatility, are once again driving directional price action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，美元/日元与更广泛的风险情绪指标（如 VIX）之间的关系急剧减弱，进一步强化了利率而非避险需求、能源价格或更广泛市场波动再次驱动价格行动的观点。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, correlations over shorter rolling windows may actually understate the strength of the relationship given suspected intervention episodes from Japan’s Ministry of Finance in recent weeks likely interrupted what otherwise may have been an even tighter alignment between widening US-Japan spreads and USD/JPY upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，较短滚动窗口的相关性可能实际上低估了这种关系的强度，因为日本财政部在最近几周的疑似干预事件可能打断了本可能更紧密的美日利差与美元/日元上涨之间的关系。</p>
</div><h2>US Inflation Pulse Broadens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国通胀脉动扩大</h2>
</div><p>That shift in correlations comes as markets rapidly reassess the US rates outlook following another hot round of inflation data. Producer prices surged 1.4% in April, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, pushing the annual rate to 6.0%, the highest since December 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着市场迅速重新评估美国利率前景，相关性的变化发生在另一轮高企的通胀数据发布之后。4 月份生产者价格上涨 1.4%，为 2022 年 3 月以来的最大月度增幅，使年率达到 6.0%，为 2022 年 12 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095611-3.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the inflation pulse was not confined to energy. Services prices jumped 1.2%, the biggest increase in four years, while core goods prices excluding food and energy rose 0.7% on the month and 4.6% from a year earlier, pointing to broadening upstream price pressures across the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，通胀脉动并不局限于能源。服务价格上涨 1.2%，为四年来的最大增幅，而不包括食品和能源的核心商品价格当月上涨 0.7%，同比上涨 4.6%，指向经济中上游价格压力的扩大。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Hike Risks Grow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储加息风险增加</h2>
</div><p>With US consumers continuing to spend aggressively and businesses increasingly passing through higher input costs, markets are beginning to price the risk that the next move from the Fed may eventually need to be a rate hike rather than a cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国消费者继续积极消费，企业越来越多地将更高的投入成本转嫁给消费者，市场开始定价美联储下一步可能需要加息而非降息的风险。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095649-4.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Markets have responded by abandoning expectations for Fed rate cuts altogether, with futures now pricing around 8 basis points of tightening by year-end. More notably, the implied Fed funds rate by the end of 2027 now sits above the current effective funds rate, signaling no move in rates this year or next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场已经完全放弃了对美联储降息的预期，期货现在定价到年底大约 8 个基点的紧缩。更显著的是，到 2027 年底的隐含联邦基金利率现在高于当前有效基金利率，表明今年或明年不会有利率变动。</p>
</div><p>While trading volumes that far out the curve remain relatively thin, it suggests incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh may have his work cut out convincing fellow FOMC members that easier policy is warranted, especially with inflation pressures broadening and economic growth continuing to hum along thanks in part to enormous AI-related capital expenditure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管远期交易量仍然相对较薄，但这表明即将上任的美联储主席凯文·沃什可能需要努力说服其他 FOMC 成员，尤其是在通胀压力扩大和经济增长因巨额与人工智能相关的资本支出而持续增长的情况下，放宽政策是合理的。</p>
</div><h2>Intervention Meets Macro Reality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干预遇上宏观现实</h2>
</div><p>The repricing in Fed expectations, alongside ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and heavy corporate debt issuance, has continued to place upward pressure on Treasury yields across the curve, helping to fuel renewed dollar strength against the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储预期的重新定价，加上霍尔木兹海峡的持续干扰和企业债务的高额发行，继续对国债收益率施加上行压力，助长了美元对日元的重新强势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095732-5.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>At the same time, as discussed previously, markets continue to demand higher yields in Japan to compensate for perceived fiscal and economic risks. Without that adjustment, the alternative mechanism remains further yen weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，如前所述，市场继续要求日本提供更高的收益率，以补偿感知的财政和经济风险。如果没有这种调整，替代机制仍然是进一步的日元贬值。</p>
</div><p>That leaves Japanese authorities in an increasingly uncomfortable position. While suspected intervention episodes may have temporarily slowed the pace of yen depreciation, continuing to lean against widening rate differentials risks becoming increasingly difficult and costly if US inflation pressures continue to broaden and Treasury yields keep heading higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得日本当局处于越来越不舒服的位置。虽然疑似干预事件可能暂时减缓了日元贬值的速度，但如果美国通胀压力继续扩大，国债收益率持续上升，继续抵制扩大的利率差将变得越来越困难和昂贵。</p>
</div><h2>Traders Eye Beijing Headlines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>交易者关注北京头条</h2>
</div><p>Attention will now turn to the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing later on Thursday. While markets clearly anticipate optimistic headlines surrounding technology and investment, for USD/JPY traders it may be any developments tied to the war with Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that matter most.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意力现在将转向周四晚间唐纳德·特朗普与习近平在北京的会晤。虽然市场显然期待围绕技术和投资的乐观头条，但对于美元/日元交易者来说，可能与伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡潜在重开的任何进展才是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>With the energy shock continuing to feed directly into US inflation pressures and Treasury yields, any attempts towards de-escalation that ease supply disruptions could temper the widening divergence between the energy haves and have nots that is underpinning dollar strength against the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着能源冲击继续直接影响美国通胀压力和国债收益率，任何缓解供应中断的降级尝试都可能减轻支撑美元对日元强势的能源富裕与贫乏之间的扩大差异。</p>
</div><h2>Intervention Zone Back Under Pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>干预区再次承压</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260514095512-1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, USD/JPY finds itself wedged beneath 157.92 resistance ahead of this key event, a level where the BoJ was likely instructed to intervene earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，美元/日元在这一关键事件之前被夹在 157.92 的阻力位下，这是日本央行可能在本月早些时候被指示进行干预的水平。</p>
</div><p>A break above may signal a reluctance from Japan’s Ministry of Finance to continue pushing back against fundamentals for now, potentially allowing for a run higher towards the 50-day moving average or 159 resistance. Anyone contemplating longs on a break should ensure risk management is in place to limit capital risk should the BoJ go bang again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>突破可能表明日本财政部目前不愿继续抵制基本面，这可能允许价格向 50 日移动平均线或 159 阻力位上行。任何考虑在突破时做多的人都应确保风险管理到位，以限制资本风险，以防日本央行再次出手。</p>
</div><p>If USD/JPY remains capped beneath 157.92, the option exists to initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection, targeting 156.00 where the pair found plenty of willing buyers during other suspected intervention episodes. The 157 figure also remains notable given the price spent considerable time trading either side of the level in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美元/日元保持在 157.92 以下，则可以选择在上方设定紧密止损的情况下开空，目标为 156.00，因为在其他被怀疑的干预事件中，该货币对在此处找到了大量愿意买入的买家。157 这个数字也值得注意，因为近期价格在该水平两侧交易了相当长的时间。</p>
</div><p>But if considering shorts, traders are effectively relying upon the BoJ to wade back in with the bazooka because fundamentals continue to argue for further upside in USD/JPY. Potentially a lot more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果考虑做空，交易者实际上依赖于日本央行再次出手，因为基本面仍然支持美元/日元进一步上涨。潜在的上涨空间可能更大。</p>
</div><p>While I'm placing far less weight on indicators than usual given the current backdrop, downside momentum that had been building following prior intervention episodes is already petering out, with RSI (14) and MACD now generating increasingly neutral signals on directional risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管考虑到当前背景，我对指标的重视程度远低于平时，但在之前的干预事件后积累的下行动能已经开始减弱，RSI（14）和 MACD 现在在方向风险上发出越来越中性的信号。</p>
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美元/日元预测：随着美联储前景的变化，日本的干预困境进一步加深