<p>这是最新路透社对经济学家的调查结果，涉及日本银行和日本经济：</p>
<ul>
<li>中位数预测显示日本银行将在第四季度将利率提高至 1.25%（保持不变）</li>
<li>65% 的经济学家预计政策利率将在 6 月上升至 1.00%</li>
<li>74% 的经济学家认为货币干预不太可能持续遏制日元贬值</li>
<li>72% 的经济学家认为持续的通胀对经济的风险大于需求放缓</li>
</ul>
<p>随着中东冲突的持续，日本和东京官员的压力无疑在上升。财政部的干预努力没有取得任何成效，美元/日元现在回升至 158.50。这是两周以来的最高水平，标志着他们今年首次在市场上进行干预的时刻。</p>
<p>货币对的上涨已经抵消了他们上周所采取的所有措施。本周这里那里出现了一些小波动，但这些可能更多是东京官员的利率检查，而不是实际干预。</p>
<p>但在他们努力与市场抗衡之际，财政部是否该向日本银行寻求帮助？</p>
<p>野村证券认为，日本银行可能会倾向于在 6 月加息，部分原因是为了应对日元进一步贬值可能带来的上行风险。然而，上述调查中的其他几位经济学家认为，日本银行可能希望等到中东局势更加明朗后再采取行动，因为对日本经济的负面影响可能远比目前预期的要大。</p>
<p>这是一种微妙的平衡，但日本银行只能怪自己，因为在过去一年中，他们有充足的机会进行更多的加息。而现在，随着美伊战争的持续，他们被置于一个非常困难的境地。</p>

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

日元指数 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多日元 ETF - ProShares

<p>最近的一项路透社调查显示，74% 的经济学家认为日本的货币干预无法有效遏制日元贬值，美元/日元汇率上升至 158.50。预计日本银行（BOJ）将在第四季度将利率提高至 1.25%，但许多经济学家建议在对中东局势有明确了解之前再采取行动。随着持续的通胀带来的风险大于需求放缓，对日本官员的压力正在增加</p>

<p>This is the findings from the latest Reuters' poll on economists, involving the BOJ and the Japanese economy:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是最新路透社对经济学家的调查结果，涉及日本银行和日本经济：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Median forecast sees BOJ raising interest rates to 1.25% in Q4 (unchanged)</li>
<li>65% of economists anticipate policy rate to rise to 1.00% in June</li>
<li>74% of economists see currency intervention as unlikely to sustainably curb yen weakness</li>
<li>72% of economists see sustained inflation as being the bigger risk to the economy than demand slowdown</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中位数预测显示日本银行将在第四季度将利率提高至 1.25%（保持不变）</li>
<li>65% 的经济学家预计政策利率将在 6 月上升至 1.00%</li>
<li>74% 的经济学家认为货币干预不太可能持续遏制日元贬值</li>
<li>72% 的经济学家认为持续的通胀对经济的风险大于需求放缓</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The pressure is certainly rising for Japan and Tokyo officials as the Middle East conflict drags on. The ministry of finance's intervention efforts are not leading anywhere with USD/JPY now climbing back to 158.50. That is the highest level in two weeks, marking the time when they first intervened in the market this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着中东冲突的持续，日本和东京官员的压力无疑在上升。财政部的干预努力没有取得任何成效，美元/日元现在回升至 158.50。这是两周以来的最高水平，标志着他们今年首次在市场上进行干预的时刻。</p>
</div><p>The move higher in the currency pair has negated all the ammunition that they have thrown out during last week. There have been some minor hiccups here and there this week but they could be rate checks more than actual intervention on the part of Tokyo officials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币对的上涨已经抵消了他们上周所采取的所有措施。本周这里那里出现了一些小波动，但这些可能更多是东京官员的利率检查，而不是实际干预。</p>
</div><p>But as they struggle to go up against the market, is it about time that the ministry of finance turn to the BOJ for assistance?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在他们努力与市场抗衡之际，财政部是否该向日本银行寻求帮助？</p>
</div><p>Nomura argues that the BOJ would be inclined to raise rates in June in part to help address the upside risks that may arise from a further depreciation in the yen currency. However, several other economists from the poll above argue that the BOJ may want to hold off until there is more clarity from Middle East developments. That as the negative impact on the Japanese economy may be much greater than anticipated currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村证券认为，日本银行可能会倾向于在 6 月加息，部分原因是为了应对日元进一步贬值可能带来的上行风险。然而，上述调查中的其他几位经济学家认为，日本银行可能希望等到中东局势更加明朗后再采取行动，因为对日本经济的负面影响可能远比目前预期的要大。</p>
</div><p>It's a fine balance but the BOJ have only themselves to blame, after having had ample opportunities to deliver more rate hikes in the past year. And now, they are put in a very tough spot as the US-Iran war continues to play out for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种微妙的平衡，但日本银行只能怪自己，因为在过去一年中，他们有充足的机会进行更多的加息。而现在，随着美伊战争的持续，他们被置于一个非常困难的境地。</p>
</div>

调查显示，日本的货币干预不太可能持续有效地抑制日元的疲软