<p>汇丰研究发布报告称，中国铜库存未能跟上铜价的急剧上涨。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在 5 月份大幅上涨，突破每吨 14,000 美元，主要受到供应担忧的推动。秘鲁宣布了一项紧急能源法令，暗示潜在的减产风险，而中东冲突则扰乱了硫磺贸易流动。</p>
<p>该券商指出，铜的结构性牛市仍然完好，受到电气化和能源转型强劲需求的支持。铜在能源安全和人工智能基础设施竞争中日益重要的角色体现在 COMEX 库存的持续增加上。中国的需求韧性在国内库存减少和稳定的阳山铜溢价中显而易见。</p>
<p>然而，尽管铜价表现强劲且供需基本面良好，中国铜库存仅录得适度增长。这主要是由于市场对全球需求可能放缓的担忧以及资金流向与人工智能相关行业的轮动。该券商认为这些担忧被夸大，并强调了买入机会（</p>
<p>详见单独表格的目标价细节）。</p>
<p>该券商将中国有色矿业（01258.HK）的目标价上调至 18.6 港元，维持其为首选股票，原因是硫酸价格上涨对公司的盈利形成利好，而非成本压力。它认为市场对 CMOC（03993.HK）硫供应和钴出口配额的担忧过于夸张。在覆盖的公司中，MMG（01208.HK）对铜价的盈利敏感度最高，并且由于按计划的生产扩张计划和严格的成本控制，能够从铜价上涨中受益。至于紫金矿业（02899.HK），由于黄金贡献较高，其对铜价的短期盈利敏感度相对较低，但该券商仍然看好其质量和多元化特征。</p>
<p>此外，该券商对江西铜业（00358.HK）维持持有评级，理由是其估值不高，并且大部分硫酸销售是长期合同，限制了其从硫酸价格上涨中受益的能力。（ha/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短线卖空数据截至 2026 年 5 月 15 日 12:25。）</p>

江西铜业股份

中国有色矿业

江西铜业

国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF

国泰中证有色金属ETF

南方中证申万有色金属ETF

<p>汇丰研究报告指出，尽管铜价因供应担忧大幅上涨，但中国铜股表现不佳。该公司将中国有色矿业的目标价上调至 18.6 港元，理由是需求强劲和基本面良好。它认为当前市场担忧被夸大，提供了买入机会。MMG 因其收益对铜价的敏感性而受到关注，而紫金矿业的收益因黄金贡献而对铜价的敏感性较低。由于估值和合同限制，江西铜业维持持有评级</p>

<p>HSBC Research published a report stating that Chinese copper stocks have lagged the sharp rally in copper prices. LME copper prices surged significantly in May, breaking above USD14,000 per tonne, mainly driven by supply concerns. Peru announced an emergency energy decree, signaling potential production cut risks, while Middle East conflicts disrupted sulfur trade flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰研究发布报告称，中国铜库存未能跟上铜价的急剧上涨。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在 5 月份大幅上涨，突破每吨 14,000 美元，主要受到供应担忧的推动。秘鲁宣布了一项紧急能源法令，暗示潜在的减产风险，而中东冲突则扰乱了硫磺贸易流动。</p>
</div><p>The broker noted that the structural bull case for copper remains intact, supported by strong demand from electrification and the energy transition. Coppers increasingly strategic role in energy security and AI infrastructure competition is reflected in continued inventory increases on COMEX. Demand resilience in China is evident in domestic inventory drawdowns and stable Yangshan copper premiums.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商指出，铜的结构性牛市仍然完好，受到电气化和能源转型强劲需求的支持。铜在能源安全和人工智能基础设施竞争中日益重要的角色体现在 COMEX 库存的持续增加上。中国的需求韧性在国内库存减少和稳定的阳山铜溢价中显而易见。</p>
</div><p>However, despite strong copper price performance and favorable supply-demand fundamentals, Chinese copper stocks have recorded only moderate gains. This is mainly due to market concerns over a potential global demand slowdown and capital rotation into AI-related sectors. The broker believes these concerns have been overstated and highlight a buying opportunity (</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管铜价表现强劲且供需基本面良好，中国铜库存仅录得适度增长。这主要是由于市场对全球需求可能放缓的担忧以及资金流向与人工智能相关行业的轮动。该券商认为这些担忧被夸大，并强调了买入机会（</p>
</div><p>see separate table for TP details).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>详见单独表格的目标价细节）。</p>
</div><p>The broker raised the TP for CHINFMINING (01258.HK) -1.070 (-7.215%)  Short selling $3.77M; Ratio 2.774%  to HKD18.6 and maintained it as its top pick, as higher sulfuric acid prices are an earnings tailwind rather than a cost pressure for the company. It considers market concerns over sulfur supply and cobalt export quotas for CMOC (03993.HK) -1.130 (-5.701%)  Short selling $70.42M; Ratio 13.842%  to be excessive. Among the companies under coverage, MMG (01208.HK) -0.720 (-6.957%)  Short selling $13.79M; Ratio 4.708%  has the highest earnings sensitivity to copper prices and is well positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, supported by on-schedule production expansion plans and strict cost control. As for ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) -1.380 (-3.708%)  Short selling $169.65M; Ratio 17.760%  , its short-term earnings sensitivity to copper prices is relatively lower due to a higher gold contribution, but the broker continues to favor its quality and diversification profile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该券商将中国有色矿业（01258.HK）的目标价上调至 18.6 港元，维持其为首选股票，原因是硫酸价格上涨对公司的盈利形成利好，而非成本压力。它认为市场对 CMOC（03993.HK）硫供应和钴出口配额的担忧过于夸张。在覆盖的公司中，MMG（01208.HK）对铜价的盈利敏感度最高，并且由于按计划的生产扩张计划和严格的成本控制，能够从铜价上涨中受益。至于紫金矿业（02899.HK），由于黄金贡献较高，其对铜价的短期盈利敏感度相对较低，但该券商仍然看好其质量和多元化特征。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the broker maintained a Hold rating on JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK) -1.140 (-2.893%)  Short selling $38.36M; Ratio 13.123%  , citing its undemanding valuation and the fact that most of its sulfuric acid sales are under long-term contracts, limiting its ability to benefit from rising sulfuric acid prices. (ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-15 12:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，该券商对江西铜业（00358.HK）维持持有评级，理由是其估值不高，并且大部分硫酸销售是长期合同，限制了其从硫酸价格上涨中受益的能力。（ha/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短线卖空数据截至 2026 年 5 月 15 日 12:25。）</p>
</div>

汇丰研究指出，中国铜股的表现落后于铜价的上涨，这为投资者提供了买入机会；中国有色矿业的目标价被上调至 18.6 港元