<p>等待更具吸引力的市场条件来购买股票的问题在于。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊在上个月的研究报告中写道：“市场不会等待任何人。”</p>
<p>他补充道：“股票市场交易的是未来，而信息是不完善和不确定的。就像它们折现了我们现在在头条新闻中看到的许多不确定性一样，它们现在正在展望这种不确定性的解决以及对一年前开始的滚动复苏的更好可见性。”</p>
<p>许多 努力理解 今年市场走势的人继续犯一个错误，假设股票应该反映今天发生的事情，而实际上它们 代表的是对未来的预期 以及投资者愿意为这种未来支付的 溢价。</p>
<p>公平地说，虽然股票 价格 可能看起来并未反映出加剧的不确定性，但 股票<em>估值</em>确实如此。</p>
<h2>股票更便宜，但价格更高</h2>
<p>随着标准普尔 500 指数在今年早些时候从高点跌至低点下跌了 9%，前瞻市盈率（P/E）下降了 18%。</p>
<p>尽管价格已经超过了这些损失，但市盈率仍低于其高点，这表明投资者为未来收益支付的溢价较低。</p>
<p>威尔逊在周三写道：“在我们看来，这并不是自满，而是市场在过去六个月中对出现的众多风险进行了大量定价工作——伊朗战争/油价飙升、人工智能干扰和私人信贷担忧是最重要的。”</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png) 前瞻市盈率在今年早些时候急剧下降，目前仍低于峰值水平。（来源：摩根士丹利）</p>
<p>但股票价格如何可以同时是_更高_的，同时又是_更便宜_的估值？</p>
<p>这很简单：_收益_正在上升！</p>
<p>虽然我们都被最近的市场波动分散了注意力，但报告的收益 好于预期，未来收益的估计 也在上升。</p>
<p>当市盈率中的 E 上升速度快于 P 时，就可能出现 P 上升而市盈率下降的结果。这只是数学。</p>
<p>威尔逊的下图很好地说明了这一动态。蓝线（收益）超过了黄线（价格），导致灰线（估值）趋势下降。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png) 前瞻收益估计超过了价格，导致估值下降。（来源：摩根士丹利）</p>
<p>关于市场不会等待任何人的观点，这在对未来收益的预期上非常真实。</p>
<p>我随着年龄的增长，逐渐意识到时间不会停止。而且收益往往随着时间的推移而上升——至少，根据 德意志银行 的这张长期日志图表，标准普尔 500 的收益在过去 90 年里一直是这样的趋势。</p>
<p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png) 收益在几十年里一直呈上升趋势。（来源：德意志银行）</p>
<p>这意味着如果你在等待更便宜的估值来购买股票，时间就是你的敌人。因为随着时间的推移，收益往往会上升。这就造成了你在最终获得你认为的吸引人的估值时，面临支付更高价格的风险。</p>
<h2>大局</h2>
<p>你可以坐在场外，担心估值看起来不具吸引力。也许它们最终会符合你对合理估值的定义。</p>
<p>但请记住：上市公司永远不会停止 追求收益增长。这自资本主义开始以来就一直在发生。（阅读更多关于这一点的内容 这里 和 这里。)</p>
<p>因此，您等待那个有吸引力的估值的时间越长，盈利可能会更高，您会发现那个有吸引力的估值伴随着更高的价格的风险就越大。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>
<p>–</p>

摩根士丹利

PEPS

CVLC

<p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊强调，等待更好的市场条件再购买股票可能是不明智的，因为股市反映的是未来的预期，而非当前的现实。尽管近期市场波动较大，但企业盈利超出预期，导致股票价格上涨而估值（市盈率）却下降。由于盈利通常会随着时间的推移而增长，推迟购买可能会导致在估值最终看起来有吸引力时支付更高的股票价格</p>

<p>Here's the problem with <em>waiting</em> for more attractive market conditions to buy stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>等待更具吸引力的市场条件来购买股票的问题在于。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The market waits for no one,&#34; Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson wrote in his research note last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊在上个月的研究报告中写道：“市场不会等待任何人。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;Equity markets trade in the future where information is imperfect and uncertain,&#34; he added. &#34;Just like they discounted much of the uncertainty we are now seeing in the headlines, they are now looking ahead to the resolution of that uncertainty and better visibility on the rolling recovery that began a year ago.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：“股票市场交易的是未来，而信息是不完善和不确定的。就像它们折现了我们现在在头条新闻中看到的许多不确定性一样，它们现在正在展望这种不确定性的解决以及对一年前开始的滚动复苏的更好可见性。”</p>
</div><p>Many of the folks struggling to make sense of this year's market action continue to make the mistake of assuming that stocks are supposed to reflect what's happening today, when in reality they represent expectations for the future and the premium investors are willing to pay for that future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多 努力理解 今年市场走势的人继续犯一个错误，假设股票应该反映今天发生的事情，而实际上它们 代表的是对未来的预期 以及投资者愿意为这种未来支付的 溢价。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, while stock <em>prices</em> may not appear to reflect heightened uncertainty, stock <em>valuations</em> certainly do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，虽然股票 价格 可能看起来并未反映出加剧的不确定性，但 股票<em>估值</em>确实如此。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks are cheaper, but their prices are higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票更便宜，但价格更高</h2>
</div><p>As the S&amp;P 500 fell 9% peak-to-trough earlier this year, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropped 18%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着标准普尔 500 指数在今年早些时候从高点跌至低点下跌了 9%，前瞻市盈率（P/E）下降了 18%。</p>
</div><p>And while prices have more than recovered those losses, the P/E ratios remain off their highs, suggesting investors are paying a lower premium for future earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管价格已经超过了这些损失，但市盈率仍低于其高点，这表明投资者为未来收益支付的溢价较低。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That's not complacency, in our view, but a market that did a substantial amount of work to price in the numerous risks that appeared over the past 6 months — Iran war/oil spike, AI disruption and private credit concerns being the most significant,&#34; Wilson wrote on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威尔逊在周三写道：“在我们看来，这并不是自满，而是市场在过去六个月中对出现的众多风险进行了大量定价工作——伊朗战争/油价飙升、人工智能干扰和私人信贷担忧是最重要的。”</p>
</div><p> The forward P/E ratio fell sharply earlier this year, and it remains below peak levels. (Source: Morgan Stanley)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! U99-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd6d8c899-c592-4221-8e93-a92e4ab045c1_1678x1380.png) 前瞻市盈率在今年早些时候急剧下降，目前仍低于峰值水平。（来源：摩根士丹利）</p>
</div><p>But how can stocks be <em>higher</em> in price but also <em>cheaper</em> in valuation?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但股票价格如何可以同时是_更高_的，同时又是_更便宜_的估值？</p>
</div><p>It's simple: Earnings are looking up!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很简单：_收益_正在上升！</p>
</div><p>While we were all distracted by the recent bout of market volatility, reported earnings have been better than expected and estimates for future earnings have been going up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我们都被最近的市场波动分散了注意力，但报告的收益 好于预期，未来收益的估计 也在上升。</p>
</div><p>When the E in P/E is rising faster than the P, it's possible to get an outcome where the P is up while the P/E is down. That's just math.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当市盈率中的 E 上升速度快于 P 时，就可能出现 P 上升而市盈率下降的结果。这只是数学。</p>
</div><p>The chart below from Wilson illustrates this dynamic nicely. The blue line (earnings) has outpaced the yellow line (price), causing the grey line (valuation) to trend lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威尔逊的下图很好地说明了这一动态。蓝线（收益）超过了黄线（价格），导致灰线（估值）趋势下降。</p>
</div><p> Forward earnings estimates have outpaced prices, causing valuations to come down. (Source: Morgan Stanley)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! T4eC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03d7f5c2-12c0-45f1-860f-fe6ea54e0b23_2124x1602.png) 前瞻收益估计超过了价格，导致估值下降。（来源：摩根士丹利）</p>
</div><p>To Wilson's point about the market waiting for no one, this has been very true about expectations for future earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于市场不会等待任何人的观点，这在对未来收益的预期上非常真实。</p>
</div><p>Something I've grown to appreciate with age is that time doesn't stop. And earnings tend to go up with time — at least, that's been the trend for S&amp;P 500 earnings for at least 90 years, according to this long-term log chart from Deutsche Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我随着年龄的增长，逐渐意识到时间不会停止。而且收益往往随着时间的推移而上升——至少，根据 德意志银行 的这张长期日志图表，标准普尔 500 的收益在过去 90 年里一直是这样的趋势。</p>
</div><p> Earnings have been trending higher for decades. (Source: Deutsche Bank)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_! wKAE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18683037-0113-4c55-aa6e-81bc1dc1089d_2182x1242.png) 收益在几十年里一直呈上升趋势。（来源：德意志银行）</p>
</div><p>That means if you're waiting for cheaper valuations to buy stocks, time is your enemy. Because as time passes, earnings tend to go up. That creates the condition where you're at risk of paying up when you finally get what you think is an attractive valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着如果你在等待更便宜的估值来购买股票，时间就是你的敌人。因为随着时间的推移，收益往往会上升。这就造成了你在最终获得你认为的吸引人的估值时，面临支付更高价格的风险。</p>
</div><h2>The big picture</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大局</h2>
</div><p>You could sit on the sidelines, fretting over how valuations appear unattractive. Maybe they do eventually meet your definition of a reasonable valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以坐在场外，担心估值看起来不具吸引力。也许它们最终会符合你对合理估值的定义。</p>
</div><p>But remember: Publicly traded companies will never stop pursuing earnings growth. It's something that's been going on since the beginning of capitalism. (Read more about that here and here.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但请记住：上市公司永远不会停止 追求收益增长。这自资本主义开始以来就一直在发生。（阅读更多关于这一点的内容 这里 和 这里。)</p>
</div><p>So, the longer you wait for that attractive valuation to come, the greater the risk that earnings are much higher and you find that attractive valuation comes with a much higher price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，您等待那个有吸引力的估值的时间越长，盈利可能会更高，您会发现那个有吸引力的估值伴随着更高的价格的风险就越大。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div><p>–</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>–</p>
</div>

The Market Waits For No One

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市场从不等待任何人