<p>Polymarket 在周日晚间遭遇了来自该国两家最知名新闻机构的连续审查，《60 分钟》播出了长达 13 分钟的内幕交易调查，而《华尔街日报》则在几小时后发布了关于其争议解决系统的独立揭露。</p>
<p>《60 分钟》的 节目 由 <strong>Jon Wertheim</strong> 报道，重点关注区块链分析公司 Bubblemaps 的发现。</p>
<p>根据该公司的数据，九个关联的 Polymarket 账户几乎完全在美国军事行动上下注，净赚超过 240 万美元，胜率高达 98%，共进行了 80 多次下注。</p>
<p>这些账户准确预测了美国首次对伊朗的打击、最高领导人的被罢免以及停火声明的具体日期。CBS 报道，今年在军事决策和结果上在线下注超过 10 亿美元。</p>
<h2>一项现役军人的起诉与一名记者的威胁</h2>
<p>该节目将区块链数据与一起刑事案件结合在一起。</p>
<p>陆军军士长 Gannon <strong>Ken Van Dyke</strong> 上个月因涉嫌利用机密情报在美国突袭捕获前委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗中获利超过 40 万美元而被起诉。</p>
<p>《60 分钟》还介绍了以色列时报的军事记者 <strong>Emanuel Fabian</strong>，他在关于伊朗袭击的报道后收到了来自 Polymarket 下注者的威胁，该报道使一方的赌注失效。</p>
<p>一条信息写道：“你们将让我们损失 90 万美元。我们将投入更多资金来结束你。”</p>
<h2>对石油期货交易的联邦调查</h2>
<p>根据节目中引用的 LSEG 数据，约有 8 亿美元在 3 月 23 日东部时间上午 6:50 下注石油价格下跌。</p>
<p>总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 在 15 分钟后在 Truth Social 上发布消息称白宫与伊朗进行了 “非常好且富有成效” 的对话。油价下跌超过 10%。</p>
<p>前商品交易员 <strong>David Kovel</strong> 估计利润高达 8000 万美元。根据 CBS 的报道，联邦调查人员正在调查这些交易。</p>
<p>尚未有人被指控。</p>
<h2>WSJ 针对 UMA 仲裁的调查</h2>
<p>与内部解决争议的竞争对手 Kalshi 不同，Polymarket 将仲裁外包给名为 UMA 的第三方服务，数字代币持有者对结果进行投票。</p>
<p>根据《华尔街日报》的分析，过去一年中至少 60% 的活跃 UMA 投票者可以直接与 Polymarket 账户关联。</p>
<p>在近五分之一的争议中，至少有一名投票者与结果有经济利益关系。在大多数争议中，超过 50% 的投票权集中在仅 10 个最大钱包中，这削弱了 UMA 的 “去中心化” 框架。</p>
<p>Polymarket 告诉《华尔街日报》，只有 0.2% 的合同触发 UMA 投票。</p>
<p>一位名为 “Scout” 的 UMA 投票者告诉《华尔街日报》，他经常在他帮助解决的争议上下注，并为这种做法辩护。他说：“你要么有利益冲突的交易者，要么是没有利益冲突的傻瓜。没有真正好的中间地带。”</p>
<p>Kalshi 在预测市场的每周交易量上 领先，在 5 月初占据了合并市场的 72.1%。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>Polymarket 因内幕交易和其争议解决系统而受到《60 分钟》和《华尔街日报》的审查。《60 分钟》的报道揭示，九个账户在美国军事行动上下注超过 240 万美元，而《华尔街日报》则强调了 Polymarket 仲裁过程中的缺陷，其中相当一部分投票者对结果有经济利益。这引发了对利益冲突和平台诚信的担忧</p>

<p>Polymarket faced back-to-back scrutiny from two of the country’s most prominent newsrooms on Sunday night, with 60 Minutes airing a 13-minute insider trading probe and The Wall Street Journal publishing a separate exposé on its dispute resolution system hours apart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 在周日晚间遭遇了来自该国两家最知名新闻机构的连续审查，《60 分钟》播出了长达 13 分钟的内幕交易调查，而《华尔街日报》则在几小时后发布了关于其争议解决系统的独立揭露。</p>
</div><p>The 60 Minutes segment, reported by <strong>Jon Wertheim</strong>, centered on findings from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《60 分钟》的 节目 由 <strong>Jon Wertheim</strong> 报道，重点关注区块链分析公司 Bubblemaps 的发现。</p>
</div><p>Nine connected Polymarket accounts netted more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions, with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets, according to the firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据该公司的数据，九个关联的 Polymarket 账户几乎完全在美国军事行动上下注，净赚超过 240 万美元，胜率高达 98%，共进行了 80 多次下注。</p>
</div><p>The accounts hit the specific dates of the first U.S. strikes on Iran, the removal of the supreme leader and the ceasefire announcement. CBS reported more than $1 billion has been staked online this year on military decisions and outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些账户准确预测了美国首次对伊朗的打击、最高领导人的被罢免以及停火声明的具体日期。CBS 报道，今年在军事决策和结果上在线下注超过 10 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>An Active-Duty Indictment And A Journalist Threatened</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一项现役军人的起诉与一名记者的威胁</h2>
</div><p>The segment grounded the blockchain data in a criminal case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该节目将区块链数据与一起刑事案件结合在一起。</p>
</div><p>Army Master Sgt. Gannon <strong>Ken Van Dyke</strong> was indicted last month for allegedly using classified intelligence to net more than $400,000 on the U.S. raid that captured former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陆军军士长 Gannon <strong>Ken Van Dyke</strong> 上个月因涉嫌利用机密情报在美国突袭捕获前委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗中获利超过 40 万美元而被起诉。</p>
</div><p>60 Minutes also profiled Times of Israel military correspondent <strong>Emanuel Fabian</strong>, who received threats from Polymarket bettors after a report about an Iranian strike voided one side of a wager.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《60 分钟》还介绍了以色列时报的军事记者 <strong>Emanuel Fabian</strong>，他在关于伊朗袭击的报道后收到了来自 Polymarket 下注者的威胁，该报道使一方的赌注失效。</p>
</div><p>One message read, “You’re going to make us lose $900,000. And we’ll invest even more than that to finish you.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一条信息写道：“你们将让我们损失 90 万美元。我们将投入更多资金来结束你。”</p>
</div><h2>Federal Probe Into Oil Futures Trades</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对石油期货交易的联邦调查</h2>
</div><p>Roughly $800 million was staked on oil prices dropping at 6:50 a.m. ET on March 23, according to LSEG data cited in the segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据节目中引用的 LSEG 数据，约有 8 亿美元在 3 月 23 日东部时间上午 6:50 下注石油价格下跌。</p>
</div><p>President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> posted on Truth Social fifteen minutes later that the White House and Iran had “very good and productive” conversations. Oil fell more than 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统 <strong>Donald Trump</strong> 在 15 分钟后在 Truth Social 上发布消息称白宫与伊朗进行了 “非常好且富有成效” 的对话。油价下跌超过 10%。</p>
</div><p>Former commodities trader <strong>David Kovel</strong> estimated the profit at as much as $80 million. Federal investigators are probing the trades, per CBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前商品交易员 <strong>David Kovel</strong> 估计利润高达 8000 万美元。根据 CBS 的报道，联邦调查人员正在调查这些交易。</p>
</div><p>No one has been charged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尚未有人被指控。</p>
</div><h2>WSJ Targets UMA Arbitration</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>WSJ 针对 UMA 仲裁的调查</h2>
</div><p>Unlike rival Kalshi, which resolves disputes internally, Polymarket outsources arbitration to a third-party service called UMA, where holders of digital tokens vote on outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与内部解决争议的竞争对手 Kalshi 不同，Polymarket 将仲裁外包给名为 UMA 的第三方服务，数字代币持有者对结果进行投票。</p>
</div><p>At least 60% of active UMA voters over the past year could be directly linked to Polymarket accounts, according to a Journal analysis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《华尔街日报》的分析，过去一年中至少 60% 的活跃 UMA 投票者可以直接与 Polymarket 账户关联。</p>
</div><p>In nearly one in five disputes, at least one voter had a financial stake in the outcome. More than 50% of voting power in most disputes is concentrated in just the 10 largest wallets, undercutting UMA’s “decentralized” framing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在近五分之一的争议中，至少有一名投票者与结果有经济利益关系。在大多数争议中，超过 50% 的投票权集中在仅 10 个最大钱包中，这削弱了 UMA 的 “去中心化” 框架。</p>
</div><p>Polymarket told the Journal only 0.2% of contracts trigger UMA votes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Polymarket 告诉《华尔街日报》，只有 0.2% 的合同触发 UMA 投票。</p>
</div><p>One UMA voter known as “Scout” told the Journal he routinely bets on the disputes he helps resolve, and defended the practice. “You can either have traders with a conflict of interest, or morons with no conflict of interest,” he said. “There’s not really a good middle ground.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一位名为 “Scout” 的 UMA 投票者告诉《华尔街日报》，他经常在他帮助解决的争议上下注，并为这种做法辩护。他说：“你要么有利益冲突的交易者，要么是没有利益冲突的傻瓜。没有真正好的中间地带。”</p>
</div><p>Kalshi has pulled ahead on prediction market weekly volume, capturing 72.1% of the combined market in early May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kalshi 在预测市场的每周交易量上 领先，在 5 月初占据了合并市场的 72.1%。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Polymarket 的艰难周末：CBS 的《60 分钟》和《华尔街日报》对内幕交易和解决系统进行审查