<p>费城联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官安娜·保尔森即将发言：</p>
<ul>
<li>格林威治标准时间 2300 / 美国东部时间 1900</li>
</ul>
<p>保尔森于 2026 年成为联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员，并在最近的 FOMC 会议上于 4 月 29 日投票支持维持利率不变，联邦基金目标区间保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 不变。今年早些时候，她曾表示对通胀持 “谨慎乐观” 的态度，并暗示如果经济条件如她所预期的发展，2026 年晚些时候可能适合适度降息。但这一观点随后被事件所超越。市场对 2026 年初进一步降息的预期让位于加息的可能性，因为战争的通胀效应加剧。自 4 月会议以来，我们听到了许多美联储官员的声音，他们在通胀高企的情况下，降低了对降息的热情，通胀预期有失去锚定的风险。</p>
<p>中国人民银行将在周三设定贷款市场报价利率（LPR），市场普遍预计一年期和五年期利率将连续第十二个月保持不变。一年期 LPR 是大多数企业和家庭贷款的基准，自 2025 年 5 月以来一直维持在 3.0%，而五年期利率是抵押贷款定价的关键参考，自同一时期以来保持在 3.5%。</p>
<p>尽管 LPR 仍然是直接影响中国实体经济借贷成本的正式基准，但其在人民银行自身政策架构中的地位已经发生了决定性的变化。中央银行现在将七天逆回购利率视为其主要政策工具，这一变化在 2024 年中期正式表明，当时人民银行行长潘功胜表示，短期公开市场操作将作为引导货币条件的主要杠杆，而 LPR 和中期借贷便利则承担辅助角色。</p>
<p>七天逆回购利率是人民银行暂时从商业银行购买证券的利率，向银行间市场注入短期流动性，并约定在七天后将其卖回。由于它可以在每日的公开市场操作中进行调整，因此政策制定者对资金条件的控制比每月根据 18 家指定商业银行的提交设定的 LPR 更为精确和及时。这些提交本身是基于银行对人民银行流动性的投标，因此逆回购利率实际上会传导到 LPR，强化了层级关系。</p>
<p>当前七天逆回购利率为 1.4%，自 2025 年 5 月 9 日以来一直保持该水平，当时人民银行将其从 1.5% 下调了 10 个基点。这一举措是更广泛的宽松政策的一部分，同时将一年期 LPR 从 3.1% 降至 3.0%，将五年期 LPR 从 3.6% 降至 3.5%，并降低了 50 个基点的存款准备金率和住房公积金贷款利率。自那时以来，该利率没有变动，官员们被认为对进一步降息的意愿有限，担心更深的降息可能会挤压银行利润并对人民币施加不必要的压力。</p>
<p>LPR 框架于 2019 年 8 月引入，当时人民银行将其指定为新银行贷款给家庭和企业的新基准，取代了中央银行较旧的管理性一年期贷款利率。该改革旨在改善货币政策向实体经济借贷成本的传导。最新的演变是将逆回购利率提升至 LPR 之上，进一步朝着更市场化的框架迈进，结构上更接近主要西方中央银行使用的框架。</p>
<p>目前，维持利率不变的决定反映了一种谨慎的平衡行为。中国经济在 2026 年第一季度增长了 5%，达到了政府年度目标区间的上限 4.5% 至 5%，减轻了立即放松政策的压力。同时，中东紧张局势升级使全球油价大幅上涨，带来了复杂的通胀压力，增加了降息的难度。3 月份，工厂出厂价格在三年多以来首次转正，同比增长 0.5%，而消费者通胀在 2 月份录得三年多以来的最大涨幅后略有回落。人民银行已表明其意图保持政策 “支持性” 和 “适度宽松”，但并不急于进行新的降息。</p>

<p>费城联邦储备银行行长安娜·保尔森（Anna Paulson）将在格林威治标准时间 2300 时发言。她最近投票决定将联邦基金目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%。由于通胀上升，市场对降息的预期已转向潜在加息。同时，中国人民银行预计将维持贷款市场报价利率不变，因为它优先考虑七天逆回购利率作为货币政策，反映出更市场导向的做法</p>

<p>Anna Paulson, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is speaking soon:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>费城联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官安娜·保尔森即将发言：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>2300 GMT / 1900 US Eastern time</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>格林威治标准时间 2300 / 美国东部时间 1900</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Paulson became a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2026 and voted with the majority to hold rates steady at the most recent FOMC meeting on 29 April, with the federal funds target range kept unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Earlier in the year she had described herself as &#34;cautiously optimistic&#34; on inflation and had signalled that modest rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026 if economic conditions evolved as she expected. That view has since been overtaken by events. Market expectations that had priced in further rate cuts at the start of 2026 gave way to the possibility of rate hikes as the war's inflationary effects intensified. We've heard from many Fed officials since the April meeting, dialling back their enthusiasm for cuts as inflation runs high and inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保尔森于 2026 年成为联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员，并在最近的 FOMC 会议上于 4 月 29 日投票支持维持利率不变，联邦基金目标区间保持在 3.50% 至 3.75% 不变。今年早些时候，她曾表示对通胀持 “谨慎乐观” 的态度，并暗示如果经济条件如她所预期的发展，2026 年晚些时候可能适合适度降息。但这一观点随后被事件所超越。市场对 2026 年初进一步降息的预期让位于加息的可能性，因为战争的通胀效应加剧。自 4 月会议以来，我们听到了许多美联储官员的声音，他们在通胀高企的情况下，降低了对降息的热情，通胀预期有失去锚定的风险。</p>
</div><p>The People's Bank of China is due to set its Loan Prime Rate on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting both the one-year and five-year tenors to remain unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month. The one-year LPR, the benchmark for most corporate and household lending, has been held at 3.0% since May 2025, while the five-year rate, the key reference for mortgage pricing, has sat at 3.5% for the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国人民银行将在周三设定贷款市场报价利率（LPR），市场普遍预计一年期和五年期利率将连续第十二个月保持不变。一年期 LPR 是大多数企业和家庭贷款的基准，自 2025 年 5 月以来一直维持在 3.0%，而五年期利率是抵押贷款定价的关键参考，自同一时期以来保持在 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>While the LPR remains the formal benchmark that directly shapes borrowing costs across China's real economy, its status within the PBOC's own policy architecture has decisively shifted. The central bank now treats the seven-day reverse repo rate as its primary policy instrument, a change formally signalled in mid-2024 when PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that short-term open market operations would serve as the main lever for guiding monetary conditions, with the LPR and the Medium-term Lending Facility taking supporting roles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 LPR 仍然是直接影响中国实体经济借贷成本的正式基准，但其在人民银行自身政策架构中的地位已经发生了决定性的变化。中央银行现在将七天逆回购利率视为其主要政策工具，这一变化在 2024 年中期正式表明，当时人民银行行长潘功胜表示，短期公开市场操作将作为引导货币条件的主要杠杆，而 LPR 和中期借贷便利则承担辅助角色。</p>
</div><p>The seven-day reverse repo rate is the rate at which the PBOC temporarily buys securities from commercial banks, injecting short-term liquidity into the interbank market, with an agreement to sell them back after seven days. Because it is (well, can be) adjusted in daily open market operations, it gives policymakers far more precise and timely control over funding conditions than the LPR, which is set once a month based on submissions from a panel of 18 designated commercial banks. Those submissions are themselves anchored to what the banks have bid for PBOC liquidity, meaning the reverse repo rate effectively feeds through to the LPR, reinforcing the hierarchy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七天逆回购利率是人民银行暂时从商业银行购买证券的利率，向银行间市场注入短期流动性，并约定在七天后将其卖回。由于它可以在每日的公开市场操作中进行调整，因此政策制定者对资金条件的控制比每月根据 18 家指定商业银行的提交设定的 LPR 更为精确和及时。这些提交本身是基于银行对人民银行流动性的投标，因此逆回购利率实际上会传导到 LPR，强化了层级关系。</p>
</div><p>The reverse repo rate currently stands at 1.4%, a level it has held since 9 May 2025, when the PBOC cut it by 10 basis points from 1.5%. That move was part of a broader easing package that also brought the one-year LPR down from 3.1% to 3.0% and the five-year LPR from 3.6% to 3.5%, alongside a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a cut to Housing Provident Fund loan rates. It has not moved since, and officials are seen as having limited appetite for further reductions, with concerns that deeper cuts could squeeze bank margins and put unwanted pressure on the yuan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前七天逆回购利率为 1.4%，自 2025 年 5 月 9 日以来一直保持该水平，当时人民银行将其从 1.5% 下调了 10 个基点。这一举措是更广泛的宽松政策的一部分，同时将一年期 LPR 从 3.1% 降至 3.0%，将五年期 LPR 从 3.6% 降至 3.5%，并降低了 50 个基点的存款准备金率和住房公积金贷款利率。自那时以来，该利率没有变动，官员们被认为对进一步降息的意愿有限，担心更深的降息可能会挤压银行利润并对人民币施加不必要的压力。</p>
</div><p>The LPR framework itself was introduced in August 2019, when the PBOC designated it the new lending benchmark for new bank loans to households and businesses, replacing the central bank's older administered one-year lending rate. That reform was designed to improve the transmission of monetary policy into real-economy borrowing costs. The latest evolution, elevating the reverse repo rate above the LPR in the policy pecking order, represents a further step toward a more market-oriented framework closer in structure to those used by major Western central banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LPR 框架于 2019 年 8 月引入，当时人民银行将其指定为新银行贷款给家庭和企业的新基准，取代了中央银行较旧的管理性一年期贷款利率。该改革旨在改善货币政策向实体经济借贷成本的传导。最新的演变是将逆回购利率提升至 LPR 之上，进一步朝着更市场化的框架迈进，结构上更接近主要西方中央银行使用的框架。</p>
</div><p>For now, the decision to hold rates reflects a careful balancing act. China's economy grew 5% in the first quarter of 2026, hitting the top of the government's annual target range of 4.5% to 5%, reducing immediate pressure to ease. At the same time, escalating Middle East tensions have pushed global oil prices sharply higher, importing inflationary pressure that complicates the case for cuts. Factory-gate prices turned positive for the first time in more than three years in March, rising 0.5% year on year, while consumer inflation logged its biggest jump in over three years in February before easing slightly. The PBOC has signalled it intends to keep policy &#34;supportive&#34; and &#34;moderately loose&#34; but is in no rush to pull the trigger on fresh rate reductions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，维持利率不变的决定反映了一种谨慎的平衡行为。中国经济在 2026 年第一季度增长了 5%，达到了政府年度目标区间的上限 4.5% 至 5%，减轻了立即放松政策的压力。同时，中东紧张局势升级使全球油价大幅上涨，带来了复杂的通胀压力，增加了降息的难度。3 月份，工厂出厂价格在三年多以来首次转正，同比增长 0.5%，而消费者通胀在 2 月份录得三年多以来的最大涨幅后略有回落。人民银行已表明其意图保持政策 “支持性” 和 “适度宽松”，但并不急于进行新的降息。</p>
</div>

亚洲地区的经济和事件日历：2026年5月20日- 美联储官员保尔森发表讲话