<p>股市接近历史高点，但华尔街的另一个角落却闪烁着警告信号：债券市场。对于许多人来说，债券、收益率和利率的讨论可能听起来像是字母汤。但债券市场实际上对你的生活有着巨大的影响——影响你为抵押贷款、汽车贷款等支付的费用。债券……詹姆斯·邦德？不，不是詹姆斯——但仍然充满动作。债券基本上是一种欠条。投资者向机构——通常是美国政府——借钱，以换取一段时间内的利息支付。美国政府债券被称为国债，它们有不同的期限：一个月、两个月，一直到 30 年。借钱给政府通常是一个稳妥的选择：它的波动性远低于股市，而且几乎可以保证你会被偿还。作为一种投资，债券在不确定时期可以成为避风港。而且你会定期收到回报——这被称为收益。当许多投资者出售债券时，收益率通常会上升，因为债券市场上的人总数减少。当美联储提高利率时，收益率也往往会上升，而当利率下降时，收益率则会下降——通常是对通胀的反应。假设你以 5% 的收益率购买了一张 100 美元的 10 年期债券。但在几年后，整体利率上升，新债券的收益率为 7%。你的 5% 债券就不那么受欢迎，因为它的收益率低于新发行的债券。如果你想出售它，你可能无法以你支付的价格出售——所以你可能只能以 80 美元出售，而不是 100 美元。这是投资者可能出售债券的另一个原因：如果投资者认为美国政府很快需要借更多的钱，他们可能会预期政府会在市场上发行更多债券，从而增加整体供应。就像任何市场一样，供需关系很重要。如果突然有更多债券可用，政府可能需要提供更高的收益率来吸引投资者。这可能使得收益率较低的旧债券看起来不那么有吸引力。那么现在发生了什么？过去几天，长期国债收益率飙升至数十年来的最高水平。30 年期收益率在周二达到了 5.2%，是自 2007 年以来的最高水平。这在很大程度上是因为华尔街越来越担心通胀可能会持续更长时间。由于伊朗战争，油价上涨，推动了汽油、食品和航空旅行的成本。“这场冲突持续的时间超出了人们的预期，” 摩根大通资产管理公司的投资组合经理凯尔西·贝罗说。“我认为这些担忧正在加剧。” 如果通胀保持高位，美联储可能需要将利率维持在较高水平更长时间——甚至可能提高利率。这可能导致债券收益率进一步上升。这对普通人意味着什么？债券市场影响着抵押贷款、信用卡贷款和汽车贷款等借款成本。因此，当收益率上升，特别是 10 年期收益率上升时，消费者贷款利率往往也会随之上升。根据《抵押贷款新闻日报》，周二 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率上升至 6.75%，是自 7 月以来的最高水平。自伊朗战争开始以来，利率稳步攀升——在此之前曾低于 6%。 “这对消费者来说是可怕的，” KPMG 首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克说。“这成为了一个政治的靶子，因为更高的利率确实影响了可负担性，但它们也是降低每个人都在经历的通胀的关键因素。” 投资者还不断将债券收益率与潜在的股市回报进行比较。在某个时刻，收益率的上升可能会对股票施加压力，因为如果投资者可以在债券市场获得更高的回报，风险较大的资产如股票可能会突然显得不那么有吸引力。根据许多华尔街分析师的说法，10 年期国债收益率的临界点通常在 4.5% 左右。目前，10 年期收益率徘徊在 4.7% 左右——一些策略师警告说，这一水平可能会对股价和整体经济产生更大的压力。总部位于伦敦的汇丰银行的分析师将上升的债券收益率描述为 “坚实地处于危险区”，并补充说，这一水平往往会对其他资产施加压力。这对日益扩大的 K 型经济是一个问题——在这种经济中，富裕美国人的消费支出占整体消费支出的过大份额，而低收入家庭则面临困境。股市的暴跌可能会对高收入美国人施加严重压力，导致他们减少消费支出。“如果你失去了富裕的消费者，保持经济向前发展的任何有意义的方式都非常困难，” 斯旺克说。“我对此非常担忧。” 这对整体经济意味着什么？上升的债券收益率表明，通胀很可能会持续，至少在一段时间内。“在某个时刻，人们会担心如果利率继续上升，这将对增长产生负面影响，减缓贷款、减缓活动，并损害整体经济的轨迹，” 贝罗说。债券市场还可以作为政策的重要制衡，这在去年特朗普总统宣布 “解放日” 关税时发生过。当时，10 年期国债收益率迅速飙升，促使特朗普撤回了他最初的互惠关税计划。“债券市场非常棘手——我一直在关注它，” 特朗普当时说。“人们有点不安。” 时间会证明债券市场当前的变动是否最终会对任何政策变化产生影响。但目前，投资者对持续的通胀和政府债务的长期影响越来越感到焦虑。“在金融市场中，悲哀的是，它们往往会忽视某些事情，直到它们变得无法忽视，” 斯旺克说。多年来，通胀一直高于美联储的 2% 目标，而美国债务持续上升。伊朗战争只给经济带来了更多压力。“全球经济中没有拉斯维加斯，” 斯旺克说。“无论发生什么，都会波及到我们的海岸。” 她补充道：“这里发生的事情不会停留在这里。” 它对整个世界都有涟漪效应。</p>

西方石油

美国短期国债指数 ETF - iShares

美国短期抗通胀债 - Vanguard

<p>债券市场发出警告信号，长期国债收益率飙升至数十年来的最高水平，这受到通胀担忧和由于伊朗战争导致的油价上涨的影响。30 年期收益率达到了 5.2%，影响了抵押贷款和贷款的借款成本。分析师警告称，收益率的上升可能会对股价和经济施加压力，特别是在 K 型经济加剧的背景下，低收入家庭将受到更大影响</p>

<p>The stock market is near record highs, but there’s another corner of Wall Street that’s flashing warning signs: the bond market. For many people, talk of bonds and yields and rates might sound like alphabet soup. But the bond market actually has a huge impact on your life — affecting how much you pay for everything from mortgages to car loans. Bond ... James Bond? No, not James — but still action-packed. A bond is basically an IOU. Investors lend money to institutions — often the U.S. government — in exchange for interest payments over time. U.S. government bonds are called Treasurys, and they come in different durations: one month, two months, all the way up to 30 years. Lending money to the government tends to be a sure bet: It’s much less volatile than the stock market, and you’re all but guaranteed you will be paid back. As an investment, bonds can be a safe haven during times of uncertainty. And you get regular payments back — what’s called a yield. When lots of investors sell bonds, yields typically rise, because there are fewer people overall in the bond market. Yields also tend to rise when the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, and they fall when those rates come down — often in response to inflation. Let’s say you buy a 10-year bond for $100 at a 5% yield. But then, after a few years, overall interest rates go up, and yields on new bonds are 7%. Your 5% bond is less desirable, because it has a lower yield than what’s being offered new. If you wanted to sell it, you wouldn’t be able to sell it for as much as you paid for it — so you could get $80 for it, perhaps, instead of $100. That’s another reason investors might sell their bonds: If investors believe the U.S. government will need to borrow more money soon, they may expect the government to issue more bonds into the market, increasing the overall supply. And as in any market, supply and demand matters. If more bonds are suddenly available, the government may need to offer higher yields to attract investors. That can make older bonds with lower yields look less attractive. So what’s going on right now? Long-term Treasury yields over the last few days have surged to some of their highest levels in decades. The 30-year yield reached 5.2% Tuesday, its highest since 2007. That’s in large part because Wall Street is increasingly worried that inflation could stay higher for longer. The rise in oil prices due to the Iran war is pushing up the costs of gasoline, food and air travel. “This conflict has gone on longer than people expected,” said Kelsey Berro, a portfolio manager with J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “I think that the concerns are compounding.” If inflation stays elevated, the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer — or potentially even hike rates. That could lead to even higher bond yields. What does that mean for regular people? The bond market influences borrowing costs for things like mortgages, credit card loans and auto loans. So when yields go up, particularly the 10-year yield, consumer lending rates tend to rise with them. On Tuesday, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.75%, its highest since July, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates have steadily climbed since the Iran war started — after having dipped below 6% just before. “It’s horrible for consumers,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “It becomes such a political piñata, because higher interest rates do affect affordability, but they also are a key factor in bringing the inflation that everyone is experiencing down.” Investors are also constantly comparing bond yields to potential stock market returns. At a certain point, rising yields can put pressure on stocks, because if investors can earn higher returns in the bond market, riskier assets like stocks can suddenly look less attractive. The tipping point, according to many Wall Street analysts, tends to be around the 4.5% level for the 10-year Treasury yield. Right now, the 10-year yield is hovering around 4.7% — a level some strategists warn could begin weighing more heavily on stock prices and the broader economy. Analysts from London-based HSBC described the rising bond yields as “firmly in the danger zone,” adding that that level tends to put pressure on other assets. And that’s an issue for the widening K-shaped economy — in which spending by wealthier Americans, many of whom are invested in stocks, accounts for an outsized share of overall consumer spending, while lower-income families struggle. A stock market plunge could put serious pressure on higher-income Americans, causing them to pull back on their spending. “If you lose the wealthy consumer, it’s very hard to keep this economy moving forward in any meaningful way,” Swonk said. “I am very worried about it.” What does it say about the broader economy? The rising bond yields signal that inflation is most likely here to stay, at least for a while. “At a certain point, there will be concern that if interest rates continue to rise, that is going to be a negative impulse for growth, slow down lending, slow down activity and hurt the trajectory of the overall economy,” Berro said. The bond market also can serve as an important check on policy, which happened last year after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. At the time, the 10-year Treasury yield surged at a rapid clip, prompting Trump to pull back on his original reciprocal tariff rollout. “The bond market is very tricky — I was watching it,” Trump said at the time. “People were getting a little queasy.” Time will tell whether the current moves in the bond market ultimately prove a factor in any policy changes. But for now, investors are becoming increasingly anxious about the long-term effects of persistent inflation and government debt. “What often happens, sadly, in financial markets is they can ignore something until it becomes unignorable,” Swonk said. For years, inflation has been higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, while the U.S. debt continues to climb. The Iran war has only put more pressure on the economy. “There is no Las Vegas in the global economy,” Swonk said. “Whatever happens abroad washes up on our own shores.” “And what happens here does not stay here,” she added. “It has ripple effects for the whole world.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市接近历史高点，但华尔街的另一个角落却闪烁着警告信号：债券市场。对于许多人来说，债券、收益率和利率的讨论可能听起来像是字母汤。但债券市场实际上对你的生活有着巨大的影响——影响你为抵押贷款、汽车贷款等支付的费用。债券……詹姆斯·邦德？不，不是詹姆斯——但仍然充满动作。债券基本上是一种欠条。投资者向机构——通常是美国政府——借钱，以换取一段时间内的利息支付。美国政府债券被称为国债，它们有不同的期限：一个月、两个月，一直到 30 年。借钱给政府通常是一个稳妥的选择：它的波动性远低于股市，而且几乎可以保证你会被偿还。作为一种投资，债券在不确定时期可以成为避风港。而且你会定期收到回报——这被称为收益。当许多投资者出售债券时，收益率通常会上升，因为债券市场上的人总数减少。当美联储提高利率时，收益率也往往会上升，而当利率下降时，收益率则会下降——通常是对通胀的反应。假设你以 5% 的收益率购买了一张 100 美元的 10 年期债券。但在几年后，整体利率上升，新债券的收益率为 7%。你的 5% 债券就不那么受欢迎，因为它的收益率低于新发行的债券。如果你想出售它，你可能无法以你支付的价格出售——所以你可能只能以 80 美元出售，而不是 100 美元。这是投资者可能出售债券的另一个原因：如果投资者认为美国政府很快需要借更多的钱，他们可能会预期政府会在市场上发行更多债券，从而增加整体供应。就像任何市场一样，供需关系很重要。如果突然有更多债券可用，政府可能需要提供更高的收益率来吸引投资者。这可能使得收益率较低的旧债券看起来不那么有吸引力。那么现在发生了什么？过去几天，长期国债收益率飙升至数十年来的最高水平。30 年期收益率在周二达到了 5.2%，是自 2007 年以来的最高水平。这在很大程度上是因为华尔街越来越担心通胀可能会持续更长时间。由于伊朗战争，油价上涨，推动了汽油、食品和航空旅行的成本。“这场冲突持续的时间超出了人们的预期，” 摩根大通资产管理公司的投资组合经理凯尔西·贝罗说。“我认为这些担忧正在加剧。” 如果通胀保持高位，美联储可能需要将利率维持在较高水平更长时间——甚至可能提高利率。这可能导致债券收益率进一步上升。这对普通人意味着什么？债券市场影响着抵押贷款、信用卡贷款和汽车贷款等借款成本。因此，当收益率上升，特别是 10 年期收益率上升时，消费者贷款利率往往也会随之上升。根据《抵押贷款新闻日报》，周二 30 年期固定抵押贷款利率上升至 6.75%，是自 7 月以来的最高水平。自伊朗战争开始以来，利率稳步攀升——在此之前曾低于 6%。 “这对消费者来说是可怕的，” KPMG 首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克说。“这成为了一个政治的靶子，因为更高的利率确实影响了可负担性，但它们也是降低每个人都在经历的通胀的关键因素。” 投资者还不断将债券收益率与潜在的股市回报进行比较。在某个时刻，收益率的上升可能会对股票施加压力，因为如果投资者可以在债券市场获得更高的回报，风险较大的资产如股票可能会突然显得不那么有吸引力。根据许多华尔街分析师的说法，10 年期国债收益率的临界点通常在 4.5% 左右。目前，10 年期收益率徘徊在 4.7% 左右——一些策略师警告说，这一水平可能会对股价和整体经济产生更大的压力。总部位于伦敦的汇丰银行的分析师将上升的债券收益率描述为 “坚实地处于危险区”，并补充说，这一水平往往会对其他资产施加压力。这对日益扩大的 K 型经济是一个问题——在这种经济中，富裕美国人的消费支出占整体消费支出的过大份额，而低收入家庭则面临困境。股市的暴跌可能会对高收入美国人施加严重压力，导致他们减少消费支出。“如果你失去了富裕的消费者，保持经济向前发展的任何有意义的方式都非常困难，” 斯旺克说。“我对此非常担忧。” 这对整体经济意味着什么？上升的债券收益率表明，通胀很可能会持续，至少在一段时间内。“在某个时刻，人们会担心如果利率继续上升，这将对增长产生负面影响，减缓贷款、减缓活动，并损害整体经济的轨迹，” 贝罗说。债券市场还可以作为政策的重要制衡，这在去年特朗普总统宣布 “解放日” 关税时发生过。当时，10 年期国债收益率迅速飙升，促使特朗普撤回了他最初的互惠关税计划。“债券市场非常棘手——我一直在关注它，” 特朗普当时说。“人们有点不安。” 时间会证明债券市场当前的变动是否最终会对任何政策变化产生影响。但目前，投资者对持续的通胀和政府债务的长期影响越来越感到焦虑。“在金融市场中，悲哀的是，它们往往会忽视某些事情，直到它们变得无法忽视，” 斯旺克说。多年来，通胀一直高于美联储的 2% 目标，而美国债务持续上升。伊朗战争只给经济带来了更多压力。“全球经济中没有拉斯维加斯，” 斯旺克说。“无论发生什么，都会波及到我们的海岸。” 她补充道：“这里发生的事情不会停留在这里。” 它对整个世界都有涟漪效应。</p>
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债券基础知识：您需要了解的债券市场信息