<p>根据《华尔街日报》，埃隆·马斯克的 SpaceX 正准备在 6 月 12 日进行首次公开募股（IPO）。如果 SpaceX 能够实现或甚至超过其目标 IPO 估值 2 万亿美元，我认为这一成功的顺风将推动马斯克其他主要业务——<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +3.28%）的股价。我的逻辑很简单：马斯克在激发兴奋和牛市动能方面的能力很可能会溢出到他的其他公司。</p>
<p>虽然短期的热情确实可能提升特斯拉的股价，但仔细观察公司会发现，SpaceX 的 IPO 只是叙事驱动交易故事中的又一章，而不是对可持续商业价值的明智反映。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MDkwNC90ZXNsYS1sb2dvLXdpdGgtY3liZXJjYWItaW4tYmFja2dyb3VuZC5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MDkwNC90ZXNsYS1sb2dvLXdpdGgtY3liZXJjYWItaW4tYmFja2dyb3VuZC5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>SpaceX IPO 如何放大特斯拉股价</h2>
<p>马斯克在围绕雄心勃勃的技术愿景构建感染性乐观方面有着独特的才能。他的新产品发布、软件更新以及关于未来的宏伟宣言历来会引发特斯拉股价的上涨。然而，当公司未能按承诺的时间表交付时，或当投资者的预期发生变化时，这些涨幅通常会伴随严厉的回调。波动性是特斯拉股票的一个显著特征，股价往往基于情绪而非其运营结果而波动。</p>
<p>我认为，公开上市的 SpaceX 很可能会以类似的方式交易。它在可重复使用火箭和 Starlink 卫星互联网方面的成就，加上在人工智能（AI）和太空探索交汇处的宏伟抱负，构成了一个引人入胜的故事。</p>
<p>新火箭发射的成功或星际飞船开发的突破可能会引发零售和机构投资者的购买狂潮。相反，航空航天行业进展过程中不可避免的生产延迟、测试失败或监管挑战则可能导致剧烈的下跌。</p>
<p>由于马斯克同时领导 SpaceX 和特斯拉，SpaceX 的积极发展自然会提升特斯拉的形象。同时，任何一家公司出现的动荡都可能对另一家公司的股价施加压力。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvVFNMQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvVFNMQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$417.38</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.6 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>230 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>6200 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>特斯拉的故事很强，但核心业务正在减弱</h2>
<p>特斯拉在过去几年的运营表现呈现出复杂的局面。构成其核心业务的电动汽车（EV）在海外面临日益激烈的竞争，这给其价格带来了压力，并导致主要市场的需求波动。</p>
<p>经过多年的收入增长，其收入在过去三年左右趋于平稳，销售额出现下降，几年前仍在两位数的利润率现已降至约 4%。与此同时，特斯拉的能源储存业务显示出令人鼓舞的势头，部署量不断增长且持续盈利——为销售多样化提供了重要来源。</p>
<p>尽管存在这些现实，特斯拉的估值反映了投资者对未来在自动驾驶和类人机器人领域突破的激进乐观预期。该公司的 1.5 万亿美元市值和三位数的市盈率假设其将在尚未大规模验证的领域实现巨大的 AI 驱动成功。生产时间表、获得 先进驾驶辅助系统的监管批准 的必要性，以及所有这些新举措所需的资本密集度都构成了压力点。</p>
<p></p>
<p>TSLA PS 比率 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>结论：追逐叙事驱动的动量是危险的</h2>
<p>SpaceX IPO 有潜力在特斯拉周围产生一阵兴奋。马斯克的双重领导、所谓的 AI 顺风以及发行规模的庞大都是形成乐观情绪的完美配方。我怀疑 SpaceX 和特斯拉股票的波动性将保持高位，而两家公司之间的比较将主导各自的财务轨迹。</p>
<p>追逐 动量股票 是一种伴随巨大风险的策略。特斯拉当前的估值已经包含了相当大的乐观情绪。将 IPO 引发的狂热加入到这个方程中，只会增加投资者在股价处于情绪驱动的高峰时购买股票的机会，而不是在更好地支持业务进展的估值下购买。</p>
<p>SpaceX 和特斯拉都处于 AI 与基础设施的交汇点，它们真正的技术雄心确实具有长期潜力。然而，是否能够从这里提供可持续的投资论点将取决于执行。</p>
<p>有意投资者需要在努力区分引人入胜的故事与真实且持续的执行和适当的估值特征时保持警惕。</p>
<p>在一个被宏大的人工智能主题所吸引的市场中，耐心和选择性将比依赖于 “更大的傻瓜” 的存在更具回报。虽然随着时间的推移，马斯克的各种事业可能会迎来机遇，但追逐首次公开募股后即刻动量的投资者应记住，受炒作驱动的上涨总是伴随着动荡，而非可预测性。</p>

特斯拉

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

TESL

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>《华尔街日报》报道，SpaceX 计划于 6 月 12 日进行首次公开募股（IPO），这可能会因埃隆·马斯克的影响力而提升特斯拉的股价。尽管兴奋情绪可能会推动特斯拉的短期收益，但其核心业务面临挑战，包括竞争加剧和利润率下降。投资者被提醒不要追逐市场热潮，因为这两家公司的估值在很大程度上依赖于乐观的叙述，而非可持续的业绩</p>

<p>According to <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>, Elon Musk's SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) date of June 12. Should SpaceX achieve or even surpass its target IPO valuation of $2 trillion, I think that the tailwind of that success will give a boost to shares of Musk's other major business -- <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA +3.28%). My logic is straightforward: Musk's proven ability to generate excitement and bullish momentum could easily spill over to his other companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《华尔街日报》，埃隆·马斯克的 SpaceX 正准备在 6 月 12 日进行首次公开募股（IPO）。如果 SpaceX 能够实现或甚至超过其目标 IPO 估值 2 万亿美元，我认为这一成功的顺风将推动马斯克其他主要业务——<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +3.28%）的股价。我的逻辑很简单：马斯克在激发兴奋和牛市动能方面的能力很可能会溢出到他的其他公司。</p>
</div><p>While short-term enthusiasm may indeed lift Tesla stock, a closer look at the company reveals the SpaceX IPO to be yet another chapter in a tale of narrative-driven trading rather than a prudent reflection of sustainable business value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然短期的热情确实可能提升特斯拉的股价，但仔细观察公司会发现，SpaceX 的 IPO 只是叙事驱动交易故事中的又一章，而不是对可持续商业价值的明智反映。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzA5MDQvdGVzbGEtbG9nby13aXRoLWN5YmVyY2FiLWluLWJhY2tncm91bmQucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Tesla logo with robotaxi prototype in background." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F870904%2Ftesla-logo-with-cybercab-in-background.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>How the SpaceX IPO could amplify Tesla stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>SpaceX IPO 如何放大特斯拉股价</h2>
</div><p>Musk has a talent for building infectious optimism around ambitious technological visions. His new product unveilings, software updates, and grand declarations about the future have historically triggered rallies in Tesla stock. However, such gains are typically followed by harsh corrections when the company fails to deliver on the timelines it promises, or when investor expectations shift. Volatility is a defining feature of Tesla stock, and the shares often move based on sentiment rather than on its operational results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在围绕雄心勃勃的技术愿景构建感染性乐观方面有着独特的才能。他的新产品发布、软件更新以及关于未来的宏伟宣言历来会引发特斯拉股价的上涨。然而，当公司未能按承诺的时间表交付时，或当投资者的预期发生变化时，这些涨幅通常会伴随严厉的回调。波动性是特斯拉股票的一个显著特征，股价往往基于情绪而非其运营结果而波动。</p>
</div><p>I think it's highly likely that a public SpaceX will trade in a similar fashion. Its achievements across reusable rockets and Starlink's satellite internet, combined with lofty ambitions at the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and space exploration, lend themselves to a compelling story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为，公开上市的 SpaceX 很可能会以类似的方式交易。它在可重复使用火箭和 Starlink 卫星互联网方面的成就，加上在人工智能（AI）和太空探索交汇处的宏伟抱负，构成了一个引人入胜的故事。</p>
</div><p>Success in new rocket launches or breakthroughs in Starship development may spark buying frenzies among retail and institutional investors. Conversely, the inevitable production delays, test failures, or regulatory challenges that come with attempts to make progress in the aerospace industry create the potential for sharp downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新火箭发射的成功或星际飞船开发的突破可能会引发零售和机构投资者的购买狂潮。相反，航空航天行业进展过程中不可避免的生产延迟、测试失败或监管挑战则可能导致剧烈的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Since Musk leads both SpaceX and Tesla, positive developments at SpaceX naturally bolster Tesla's image. Meanwhile, any turbulence at either company will likely put pressure on the shares of the other.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于马斯克同时领导 SpaceX 和特斯拉，SpaceX 的积极发展自然会提升特斯拉的形象。同时，任何一家公司出现的动荡都可能对另一家公司的股价施加压力。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(3.28%) $13.27</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$417.38</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$417.38</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.6T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.6 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$406.41 - $417.42</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$273.21 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>230 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>62M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6200 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's story is strong, but the core business is weakening</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的故事很强，但核心业务正在减弱</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's operating performance over the last couple of years paints a mixed picture. The electric vehicles (EVs) that comprise the core of its business face intensifying competition overseas, which has put pressure on its prices and led to variable demand in major markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在过去几年的运营表现呈现出复杂的局面。构成其核心业务的电动汽车（EV）在海外面临日益激烈的竞争，这给其价格带来了压力，并导致主要市场的需求波动。</p>
</div><p>After years of revenue growth, its top line has trended sideways over the past three years or so, with periods of falling sales, and its profit margin, which just a few years ago was in double digits, is down to about 4%. At the same time, Tesla's energy storage business has shown encouraging momentum with growing deployments and consistent profitability -- offering a meaningful source of sales diversification.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过多年的收入增长，其收入在过去三年左右趋于平稳，销售额出现下降，几年前仍在两位数的利润率现已降至约 4%。与此同时，特斯拉的能源储存业务显示出令人鼓舞的势头，部署量不断增长且持续盈利——为销售多样化提供了重要来源。</p>
</div><p>Despite these realities, Tesla's valuation reflects investors' aggressively optimistic expectations for future breakthroughs in autonomous driving and humanoid robotics. The company's $1.5 trillion market cap and its triple-digit price-to-earnings ratio assume that it will achieve enormous levels of AI-driven success in areas that remain unproven at scale. Production timelines, the need to win regulatory approvals for advanced driver assistance systems, and the capital intensity required for all of these new initiatives represent pressure points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管存在这些现实，特斯拉的估值反映了投资者对未来在自动驾驶和类人机器人领域突破的激进乐观预期。该公司的 1.5 万亿美元市值和三位数的市盈率假设其将在尚未大规模验证的领域实现巨大的 AI 驱动成功。生产时间表、获得 先进驾驶辅助系统的监管批准 的必要性，以及所有这些新举措所需的资本密集度都构成了压力点。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>TSLA PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA PS 比率 数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Verdict: Chasing narrative-driven momentum is dangerous</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>结论：追逐叙事驱动的动量是危险的</h2>
</div><p>The SpaceX IPO has the potential to generate a burst of excitement around Tesla. Musk's dual leadership, the supposed AI tailwinds, and the sheer scale of the offering are a perfect recipe for bullish sentiment. My suspicion is that volatility in both SpaceX and Tesla stock will remain high, while comparisons between the two companies will dominate their respective financial trajectories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX IPO 有潜力在特斯拉周围产生一阵兴奋。马斯克的双重领导、所谓的 AI 顺风以及发行规模的庞大都是形成乐观情绪的完美配方。我怀疑 SpaceX 和特斯拉股票的波动性将保持高位，而两家公司之间的比较将主导各自的财务轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Chasing momentum stocks is a strategy that comes with outsize risks. Tesla's current valuation already incorporates substantial optimism. Adding IPO-fueled euphoria to the equation only increases investors' chances of buying the stock when it's trading at an emotion-driven peak rather than at a valuation that's better supported by the progress the business is making.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>追逐 动量股票 是一种伴随巨大风险的策略。特斯拉当前的估值已经包含了相当大的乐观情绪。将 IPO 引发的狂热加入到这个方程中，只会增加投资者在股价处于情绪驱动的高峰时购买股票的机会，而不是在更好地支持业务进展的估值下购买。</p>
</div><p>Both SpaceX and Tesla sit at the intersection of AI and infrastructure, and their genuine technological ambitions do have long-term potential. However, whether either can offer a sustainable investment thesis from here will hinge on execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX 和特斯拉都处于 AI 与基础设施的交汇点，它们真正的技术雄心确实具有长期潜力。然而，是否能够从这里提供可持续的投资论点将取决于执行。</p>
</div><p>Interested investors will need to be vigilant in their efforts to distinguish compelling stories from real and consistent execution and appropriate valuation profiles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有意投资者需要在努力区分引人入胜的故事与真实且持续的执行和适当的估值特征时保持警惕。</p>
</div><p>In a market captivated by grand AI themes, patience and selectivity will prove more rewarding than counting on the existence of a &#34; greater fool.&#34; While the stars could align for Musk's various ventures over time, investors who chase immediate post-IPO momentum should remember that hype-driven rallies always come with turbulence rather than predictability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一个被宏大的人工智能主题所吸引的市场中，耐心和选择性将比依赖于 “更大的傻瓜” 的存在更具回报。虽然随着时间的推移，马斯克的各种事业可能会迎来机遇，但追逐首次公开募股后即刻动量的投资者应记住，受炒作驱动的上涨总是伴随着动荡，而非可预测性。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Tesla Stock Could Go Parabolic After June 12. Here's Why.

- SpaceX 计划于 6 月 12 日上市，可能提振特斯拉股价。  
- 然而，特斯拉的基本面面临竞争压力和收益波动。  
- 投资者需警惕 IPO 带来的情绪波动。

预测：特斯拉的股票可能会在 6 月 12 日之后呈现抛物线式的上涨。以下是原因