<p>由于日本股市的反弹以及对更负责任财政政策的预期，日元在周三上涨，受到了高市长选举胜利的推动。</p>
<p>Yevgen Romanenko | Moment | Getty Images</p>
<p>日本最大的银行在最新的财务报告中公布了创纪录的年度利润，但分析师表示，随着信贷成本上升和地缘政治风险影响前景，盈利增长可能会放缓。</p>
<p>日本最大的贷款机构三菱 UFJ 金融集团表示，截至 2026 年 3 月的财年，净利润同比增长 30%，达到 2.4 万亿日元，连续第三年创下历史新高。</p>
<p>同样，住友三井金融集团和瑞穗金融集团在最新的财报中也报告了创纪录的年度利润，分别同比增长 34% 和 41%。</p>
<p>Fitch Ratings 的银行主管西泽香织表示：“更高的日元利率改善了贷款利润率并支持了净利息收入，而健康的企业融资需求和更强的手续费收入也为收入增添了动力。”</p>
<p>野村证券重申了对日本主要银行的看涨立场，并将住友三井和瑞穗列为其首选。三大巨头银行——三菱 UFJ、住友三井和瑞穗——仍然 “相对于其盈利实力显得被低估，” 野村表示。</p>
<p>然而，分析师表示，这些贷款机构可能会在保持利润在创纪录水平方面面临困难。</p>
<p>西泽表示：“盈利增长可能会放缓，” 并指出最近的上行趋势来自一次性项目，包括市场相关收益和收购的贡献。</p>
<p>根据西泽的说法，银行还面临更高的信贷成本、存款竞争以及来自更广泛的宏观经济和地缘政治风险的压力。</p>
<p>“因此，当前水平的利润增长的可持续性可能会受到挑战，” 她补充道。</p>
<p>瑞银的分析师庭田浩一表示，盈利改善似乎比以往周期更具结构性，受到国内利率上升、通货膨胀和更强的企业融资需求的推动。</p>
<p>庭田表示，批发和企业融资活动的增强使大型日本银行受益，并帮助提升了近期的盈利，吸引了投资者对该行业的重新关注。</p>
<p>但融资并购、大型企业贷款、海外贷款和结构性交易通常需要比国内贷款更多的资本。</p>
<p>“因此，即使利润在增长，银行也需要分配更多资本以支持资产负债表的扩张，” 他补充道。</p>
<p>晨星亚洲股票研究主管洛琳·谭预计，三菱 UFJ 的盈利增长将在 2027 财年放缓至 5%，因为预计日本以外的全球利率将放缓。</p>
<p>“这，加上来自关联公司摩根士丹利的贡献放缓，可能会影响国内增长，” 谭补充道。</p>
<p>谭还预计，住友三井的盈利增长将在 2028 财年放缓至 9%，因为其贷款组合中约 35% 的贷款在日本以外，而瑞穗的净利息利润率增长可能会在 2027 财年放缓，因为日本以外的利率将恢复放松周期。</p>
<p>与此同时，日本贷款机构也在密切关注中东的发展，这可能会影响其盈利前景。</p>
<p>三菱 UFJ 首席执行官半泽淳一在最近的财报发布会上表示，如果中东紧张局势持续升级，银行的底线可能会受到负面影响。年末前油价的进一步上涨也可能对全球经济增长产生压力。</p>
<p>住友三井在财报中表示：“与中东相关的风险，包括潜在的溢出效应，部分已计提准备金，并保持密切监测。”</p>
<p>瑞穗也表示：“我们将持续监测外部环境及其潜在影响，并在必要时灵活调整我们的财务展望。”</p>
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8306

三井住友金融

三菱日联金融集团

8316

<p>日本最大的银行报告了创纪录的年度利润，三菱日联的净利润增长了 30%，达到 2.4 万亿日元。然而，分析师警告称，由于信贷成本上升和地缘政治风险，增长可能会放缓。尽管日元利率上升和强劲的企业需求推动了收益，但在当前利润水平上的可持续性仍然不确定。分析师预计，未来几年三菱日联的增长将放缓至 5%，而三井住友的增长将放缓至 9%，同时也在关注中东紧张局势可能带来的影响</p>

<p>The yen gained on Wednesday following a rally in Japan's equities and bets on more fiscally responsible policies after Prime Minister Takaichi's election win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于日本股市的反弹以及对更负责任财政政策的预期，日元在周三上涨，受到了高市长选举胜利的推动。</p>
</div><p>Yevgen Romanenko | Moment | Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yevgen Romanenko | Moment | Getty Images</p>
</div><p>Japan's largest banks posted record annual profits in their latest financial results, but earnings growth could slow as credit costs rise and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook, analysts say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本最大的银行在最新的财务报告中公布了创纪录的年度利润，但分析师表示，随着信贷成本上升和地缘政治风险影响前景，盈利增长可能会放缓。</p>
</div><p>Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, the country's largest lender, said net profit rose 30% from a year ago to 2.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year ended March 2026, a record high for the third consecutive year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本最大的贷款机构三菱 UFJ 金融集团表示，截至 2026 年 3 月的财年，净利润同比增长 30%，达到 2.4 万亿日元，连续第三年创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group also reported record annual profits in their latest earnings, rising 34% and 41% from a year ago, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，住友三井金融集团和瑞穗金融集团在最新的财报中也报告了创纪录的年度利润，分别同比增长 34% 和 41%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Higher yen rates are improving lending margins and supporting net interest income, while healthy corporate funding demand and stronger fee income are adding to revenue,&#34; said Kaori Nishizawa, Director of Banks at Fitch Ratings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Fitch Ratings 的银行主管西泽香织表示：“更高的日元利率改善了贷款利润率并支持了净利息收入，而健康的企业融资需求和更强的手续费收入也为收入增添了动力。”</p>
</div><p>Nomura reiterated its bullish stance on Japan's major banks and named Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho as its top picks. The three megabanks — Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho — still &#34;look undervalued relative to the strength of their earnings,&#34; Nomura said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村证券重申了对日本主要银行的看涨立场，并将住友三井和瑞穗列为其首选。三大巨头银行——三菱 UFJ、住友三井和瑞穗——仍然 “相对于其盈利实力显得被低估，” 野村表示。</p>
</div><p>However, analysts said the lenders could struggle to keep profits at record levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，分析师表示，这些贷款机构可能会在保持利润在创纪录水平方面面临困难。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Earnings growth is likely to moderate,&#34; said Nishizawa, noting that recent upside has come from one-off items, including market-related gains and contributions from acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>西泽表示：“盈利增长可能会放缓，” 并指出最近的上行趋势来自一次性项目，包括市场相关收益和收购的贡献。</p>
</div><p>Banks also face higher credit costs, competition for deposits and pressure from broader macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, according to Nishizawa.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据西泽的说法，银行还面临更高的信贷成本、存款竞争以及来自更广泛的宏观经济和地缘政治风险的压力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As such, sustainability of profit growth at current levels is likely to be challenged,&#34; she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“因此，当前水平的利润增长的可持续性可能会受到挑战，” 她补充道。</p>
</div><p>The earnings improvements appear more structural than in previous cycles, driven by higher domestic interest rates, inflation and stronger corporate funding demand, said Koichi Niwa, an analyst at UBS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银的分析师庭田浩一表示，盈利改善似乎比以往周期更具结构性，受到国内利率上升、通货膨胀和更强的企业融资需求的推动。</p>
</div><p>Stronger wholesale and corporate finance activity has benefited large Japanese banks and helped lift recent earnings amid renewed investor interest in the sector, Niwa said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庭田表示，批发和企业融资活动的增强使大型日本银行受益，并帮助提升了近期的盈利，吸引了投资者对该行业的重新关注。</p>
</div><p>But financing mergers and acquisitions, large corporate lending, overseas loans and structured transactions often require more capital than domestic lending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但融资并购、大型企业贷款、海外贷款和结构性交易通常需要比国内贷款更多的资本。</p>
</div><p>&#34;As a result, even if profits are growing, banks also need to allocate more capital to support balance-sheet expansion,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“因此，即使利润在增长，银行也需要分配更多资本以支持资产负债表的扩张，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p>Lorraine Tan, director of equity research in Asia for Morningstar, expects Mitsubishi UFJ's earnings growth to slow to 5% from fiscal 2027, as global interest rates outside Japan are expected to ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晨星亚洲股票研究主管洛琳·谭预计，三菱 UFJ 的盈利增长将在 2027 财年放缓至 5%，因为预计日本以外的全球利率将放缓。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This, coupled with slowing contributions from associate Morgan Stanley, should eat into domestic growth,&#34; Tan added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这，加上来自关联公司摩根士丹利的贡献放缓，可能会影响国内增长，” 谭补充道。</p>
</div><p>Tan also expects Sumitomo Mitsui's earnings growth to slow to 9% through fiscal 2028, citing its exposure to a loan book with around 35% outside Japan, while Mizuho's net interest margin gains could ease from fiscal 2027 as interest rates outside Japan resume an easing cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谭还预计，住友三井的盈利增长将在 2028 财年放缓至 9%，因为其贷款组合中约 35% 的贷款在日本以外，而瑞穗的净利息利润率增长可能会在 2027 财年放缓，因为日本以外的利率将恢复放松周期。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the Japanese lenders are also keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East, which could weigh on their earnings outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，日本贷款机构也在密切关注中东的发展，这可能会影响其盈利前景。</p>
</div><p>Junichi Hanzawa, MUFG's chief executive, said at a recent earnings briefing that the bank's bottom line could be negatively impacted if Middle East tensions continue to build. A further rise in oil prices before year-end could also weigh on global economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三菱 UFJ 首席执行官半泽淳一在最近的财报发布会上表示，如果中东紧张局势持续升级，银行的底线可能会受到负面影响。年末前油价的进一步上涨也可能对全球经济增长产生压力。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Middle East-related risks, including potential spillover effects, are partly provisioned for and remain closely monitored,&#34; Sumitomo Mitsui said in an earnings filing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>住友三井在财报中表示：“与中东相关的风险，包括潜在的溢出效应，部分已计提准备金，并保持密切监测。”</p>
</div><p>Mizuho also said that it &#34;will continuously monitor the external environment &amp; its potential impacts, and flexibly revise [its] financial outlook if necessary going forward.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞穗也表示：“我们将持续监测外部环境及其潜在影响，并在必要时灵活调整我们的财务展望。”</p>
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Japan’s megabanks post record profits, but analysts warn growth may slow as risks mount

CNBC

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.

瑞穗金融集团

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

野村控股

瑞银集团

晨星信息

摩根士丹利

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

日本的大型银行虽然创下了创纪录的利润，但分析师警告称，随着风险的增加，增长可能会放缓