<p>摩根士丹利表示，尽管近期面临能源冲击的逆风，但日本的再通胀故事在结构上依然稳固，预计今年名义 GDP 将出现下滑，之后在 2026 年反弹至 4% 以上。</p>
<p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>由于能源冲击导致的贸易条件损失，日本的名义 GDP 增长预计今年将略微转为负值，预计在 2026 年恢复至 4% 以上</li>
<li>4 月份数据中，生产者价格同比上涨 4.9%，预计由于油价上涨和与北美自贸协定相关的建筑、塑料和工业溶剂供应中断，未来还会进一步上涨</li>
<li>政府的能源补贴和战略石油储备迄今为止已使日本家庭免受能源成本上涨的直接影响</li>
<li>结构性劳动力短缺预计将维持稳健的工资增长，特别是在年轻工人中，支持中期内的国内消费</li>
<li>节省劳动力的投资和政府支持的国内资本支出计划被认为将使商业投资在外部逆风中保持韧性</li>
<li>摩根士丹利设定的基础案例 TOPIX 目标为 4300 点，认为日本在亚洲股票配置中优于更广泛的新兴市场</li>
<li>银行跟踪的每个消费子行业都在经历盈利下调，而升级主要集中在材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物上</li>
</ul>
<p>摩根士丹利的宏观和股票团队重申了他们对日本的看涨结构性观点，即使全球能源冲击带来了他们所描述的对经济的重大但可控的短期偏离。</p>
<p>在摩根士丹利与三菱 UFJ 联合举办的日本峰会上，首席日本经济学家山口隆承认，由于高油价带来的贸易条件损失，名义 GDP 增长今年可能略微转为负值。这个打击是实实在在的，但山口明确表示，这并不改变基本的轨迹。他预计明年名义 GDP 增长将恢复至 4% 以上，并认为再通胀理论的结构性支柱依然稳固。</p>
<p>这些支柱集中在日本的劳动力市场。劳动力的结构性短缺继续推动工资增长，尽管短期内增速可能会有所放缓，但山口预计，特别是在年轻员工中，基本工资的增长将持续。推动工资上涨的紧张局势也促使公司加快对节省劳动力技术的投资，这种动态，加上政府吸引国内资本支出的举措，预计将使商业投资在逆风中保持韧性。</p>
<p>然而，能源冲击在生产者价格中显现出来。4 月份数据显示，同比上涨 4.9%，银行预计这一数字将进一步上升，不仅受到油价的推动，还受到与北美自贸协定相关的建筑材料、塑料产品和工业溶剂的供应中断的影响。政府补贴和日本相对较深的战略石油储备迄今为止吸收了大部分面向消费者的影响，但财政负担正在加重。</p>
<p>在股票方面，首席亚洲及新兴市场股票策略师乔纳森·加纳提出了将日本作为任何以亚洲为重点投资组合的核心持有的理由。银行的 TOPIX 基础案例目标为 4300 点，较发布时约有 12% 的上涨空间，相较于新兴市场目标约 8% 的隐含收益更具吸引力。更重要的是，加纳认为，风险调整后的偏向有利于日本：如果从新兴市场指数中剔除韩国和台湾，整体市场实际上没有盈利增长。</p>
<p>日本内部的行业情况 sharply bifurcated。银行跟踪的每个消费子细分市场都在经历盈利下调，而材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物则在获得升级。加纳形容修正的分散程度与他之前观察到的任何情况都不同，并指出这至少对消费者的韧性持久性提出了一些质疑，如果生产者价格通胀继续传导。</p>
<p>银行的四个核心主题研究框架，涵盖多极世界、人工智能和技术扩散、能源的未来以及社会变革，约占摩根士丹利日本股票覆盖范围的 75%，这种主题曝光的集中度，加纳认为比任何其他主要市场都更具优势。欧洲缺乏有意义的人工智能和技术扩散受益者，而美国则承载着更重的传统软件、服务和消费暴露。相比之下，日本在资本支出超级周期的交汇点上，能够与其他市场相比，具有独特的优势。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>日本股票在摩根士丹利的年中展望中被视为首选的亚洲配置，银行的 4300 点 TOPIX 目标意味着从发布时起约有 12% 的上涨空间。资本支出超级周期理论支撑了这一偏好，材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物都在经历盈利升级，而面向消费者的行业则面临广泛的下调压力。能源冲击被视为短期拖累，而非结构性威胁，尽管生产者价格上涨和与北美自贸协定相关的供应中断为名义 GDP 的恢复时间表增加了复杂性。</p>

摩根士丹利

2 倍做空日圓 ETF - ProShares

<p>摩根士丹利认为，尽管短期内能源冲击影响，日本的再通胀叙事依然完好，预测今年名义 GDP 将略微下降，随后在 2026 年恢复至超过 4%。4 月份生产者价格同比上涨 4.9%，受到油价和供应中断的影响。该银行偏好日本的股票配置，设定 TOPIX 目标为 4,300，意味着有 12% 的上涨空间。尽管消费领域面临下调，但材料和科技领域则出现上调，能源冲击被视为暂时性挫折，而非长期威胁</p>

<p>Morgan Stanley says Japan's reflation story remains structurally intact despite near-term energy shock headwinds, forecasting a dip in nominal GDP this year before a rebound above 4% in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利表示，尽管近期面临能源冲击的逆风，但日本的再通胀故事在结构上依然稳固，预计今年名义 GDP 将出现下滑，之后在 2026 年反弹至 4% 以上。</p>
</div><p><strong>Summary:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>摘要：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan's nominal GDP growth is expected to turn slightly negative this year due to terms-of-trade losses from the energy shock, before recovering to above 4% in 2026</li>
<li>Producer prices jumped 4.9% year-on-year in April data, with further increases expected from higher oil costs and NAFTA-related supply disruptions in construction, plastics, and industrial solvents</li>
<li>Government energy subsidies and strategic oil reserves have so far shielded Japanese households from the direct impact of higher energy costs</li>
<li>A structural labour shortage is expected to sustain solid wage growth, particularly among younger workers, supporting domestic consumption over the medium term</li>
<li>Labour-saving investment and government-backed domestic CapEx initiatives are seen keeping business investment resilient despite the external headwinds</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley sets a base case TOPIX target of 4,300, with Japan preferred over broader emerging markets for Asia equity allocation</li>
<li>Every consumer sub-sector tracked by the bank is seeing earnings downgrades, while upgrades are concentrated in materials, semis, tech hardware, and defence capital goods</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>由于能源冲击导致的贸易条件损失，日本的名义 GDP 增长预计今年将略微转为负值，预计在 2026 年恢复至 4% 以上</li>
<li>4 月份数据中，生产者价格同比上涨 4.9%，预计由于油价上涨和与北美自贸协定相关的建筑、塑料和工业溶剂供应中断，未来还会进一步上涨</li>
<li>政府的能源补贴和战略石油储备迄今为止已使日本家庭免受能源成本上涨的直接影响</li>
<li>结构性劳动力短缺预计将维持稳健的工资增长，特别是在年轻工人中，支持中期内的国内消费</li>
<li>节省劳动力的投资和政府支持的国内资本支出计划被认为将使商业投资在外部逆风中保持韧性</li>
<li>摩根士丹利设定的基础案例 TOPIX 目标为 4300 点，认为日本在亚洲股票配置中优于更广泛的新兴市场</li>
<li>银行跟踪的每个消费子行业都在经历盈利下调，而升级主要集中在材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物上</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley's macro and equity teams have reaffirmed their bullish structural case for Japan even as the global energy shock introduces what they describe as a meaningful but manageable short-term detour for the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利的宏观和股票团队重申了他们对日本的看涨结构性观点，即使全球能源冲击带来了他们所描述的对经济的重大但可控的短期偏离。</p>
</div><p>Speaking at a joint Morgan Stanley and MUFG Japan Summit, Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi acknowledged that nominal GDP growth is likely to turn slightly negative this year, dragged lower by the terms-of-trade losses that come with elevated oil prices. The hit is real, but Yamaguchi was clear that it does not alter the underlying trajectory. A recovery to above 4 percent nominal GDP growth is pencilled in for next year, and the structural pillars of the reflation thesis remain, in his view, firmly in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在摩根士丹利与三菱 UFJ 联合举办的日本峰会上，首席日本经济学家山口隆承认，由于高油价带来的贸易条件损失，名义 GDP 增长今年可能略微转为负值。这个打击是实实在在的，但山口明确表示，这并不改变基本的轨迹。他预计明年名义 GDP 增长将恢复至 4% 以上，并认为再通胀理论的结构性支柱依然稳固。</p>
</div><p>Those pillars are centred on Japan's labour market. A structural shortage of workers continues to drive wage growth, and while the pace may moderate somewhat in the near term, Yamaguchi expects solid base pay increases to continue, particularly among younger employees. The same tightness that is pushing wages higher is also compelling companies to accelerate investment in labour-saving technology, a dynamic that, combined with government initiatives to attract domestic capital spending, is expected to keep business investment resilient through the headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些支柱集中在日本的劳动力市场。劳动力的结构性短缺继续推动工资增长，尽管短期内增速可能会有所放缓，但山口预计，特别是在年轻员工中，基本工资的增长将持续。推动工资上涨的紧张局势也促使公司加快对节省劳动力技术的投资，这种动态，加上政府吸引国内资本支出的举措，预计将使商业投资在逆风中保持韧性。</p>
</div><p>The energy shock is, however, showing up in producer prices. April data revealed a 4.9 percent year-on-year increase, and the bank expects that figure to climb further, driven not only by oil costs but also by supply disruptions linked to NAFTA-related dislocations across construction materials, plastic products, and industrial solvents. Government subsidies and Japan's relatively deep strategic oil reserves have so far absorbed much of the consumer-facing impact, but the fiscal burden is building.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，能源冲击在生产者价格中显现出来。4 月份数据显示，同比上涨 4.9%，银行预计这一数字将进一步上升，不仅受到油价的推动，还受到与北美自贸协定相关的建筑材料、塑料产品和工业溶剂的供应中断的影响。政府补贴和日本相对较深的战略石油储备迄今为止吸收了大部分面向消费者的影响，但财政负担正在加重。</p>
</div><p>On equities, Chief Asia and EM Equity Strategist Jonathan Garner made the case for Japan as the core holding in any Asia-focused portfolio. The bank's TOPIX base case target of 4,300 represents around 12 percent upside from the time of publication, comparing favourably with the approximately 8 percent implied by the EM target. More importantly, Garner argued, the risk-adjusted skew favours Japan: strip out Korea and Taiwan from the EM index, and there is effectively no earnings growth in the broader complex right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，首席亚洲及新兴市场股票策略师乔纳森·加纳提出了将日本作为任何以亚洲为重点投资组合的核心持有的理由。银行的 TOPIX 基础案例目标为 4300 点，较发布时约有 12% 的上涨空间，相较于新兴市场目标约 8% 的隐含收益更具吸引力。更重要的是，加纳认为，风险调整后的偏向有利于日本：如果从新兴市场指数中剔除韩国和台湾，整体市场实际上没有盈利增长。</p>
</div><p>The sectoral picture inside Japan is sharply bifurcated. Every consumer sub-segment the bank tracks is seeing earnings downgrades, while upgrades are flowing into materials, semiconductors, tech hardware, and defence capital goods. Garner described the degree of dispersion in revisions as unlike anything he has previously observed, and noted it raises at least some questions about the durability of consumer resilience if producer price inflation continues to feed through.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本内部的行业情况 sharply bifurcated。银行跟踪的每个消费子细分市场都在经历盈利下调，而材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物则在获得升级。加纳形容修正的分散程度与他之前观察到的任何情况都不同，并指出这至少对消费者的韧性持久性提出了一些质疑，如果生产者价格通胀继续传导。</p>
</div><p>The bank's four core thematic research frameworks, covering the multipolar world, AI and technology diffusion, the future of energy, and societal shifts, map onto roughly 75 percent of Morgan Stanley's Japan equity coverage by stock count, a concentration of thematic exposure that Garner argued is more advantageous than in any other major market. Europe lacks meaningful AI and tech diffusion beneficiaries upstream, while the US carries heavier legacy software, services, and consumer exposure. Japan, by contrast, sits at the intersection of the CapEx supercycle in a way that few other markets can match.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行的四个核心主题研究框架，涵盖多极世界、人工智能和技术扩散、能源的未来以及社会变革，约占摩根士丹利日本股票覆盖范围的 75%，这种主题曝光的集中度，加纳认为比任何其他主要市场都更具优势。欧洲缺乏有意义的人工智能和技术扩散受益者，而美国则承载着更重的传统软件、服务和消费暴露。相比之下，日本在资本支出超级周期的交汇点上，能够与其他市场相比，具有独特的优势。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>Japanese equities are positioned as the preferred Asian allocation in Morgan Stanley's mid-year outlook, with the bank's 4,300 TOPIX target implying around 12 percent upside from publication. The CapEx supercycle thesis underpins the preference, with materials, semiconductors, tech hardware, and defence capital goods all seeing earnings upgrades, while consumer-facing sectors face broad downgrade pressure. The energy shock is seen as a near-term drag rather than a structural threat, though rising producer prices and NAFTA-related supply disruptions add complexity to the timeline for nominal GDP recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本股票在摩根士丹利的年中展望中被视为首选的亚洲配置，银行的 4300 点 TOPIX 目标意味着从发布时起约有 12% 的上涨空间。资本支出超级周期理论支撑了这一偏好，材料、半导体、科技硬件和国防资本货物都在经历盈利升级，而面向消费者的行业则面临广泛的下调压力。能源冲击被视为短期拖累，而非结构性威胁，尽管生产者价格上涨和与北美自贸协定相关的供应中断为名义 GDP 的恢复时间表增加了复杂性。</p>
</div>

Morgan Stanley sees Japan reflation intact despite energy shock short-term drag

Investinglive

三菱日联金融集团

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

摩根士丹利认为，尽管短期内受到能源冲击的拖累，日本的再通胀趋势仍然保持不变