<p>著名经济学家 <strong>Mohamed A. El-Erian</strong> 警告市场动态正在发生变化，投资者不再能够依赖传统的中央银行干预来拯救表现不佳的资产。</p>
<h2><strong>受限的中央银行安全网</strong></h2>
<p>根据 El-Erian 在 Substack 的一篇文章，全球经济已进入一个复杂的环境，传统的安全网正在消退。</p>
<p>他指出，依赖激进的监管救助或突然的 降息 的时代正在发生结构性变化，明确指出 “绝大多数发达国家 [面临] 政策约束。” 这种变化使市场容易受到结构性和宏观经济波动的影响。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>债券市场刚刚向 AI 牛市发出警告 — 美联储加息在即</strong></p>
<h2><strong>‘高位持续’ 现实转变</strong></h2>
<p>宏观环境迫使投资者重新评估预期。就在几个月前，市场共识 严重定价 美联储的降息。</p>
<p>然而，持续的需求和顽固的通胀数据颠覆了这些假设，迫使期货市场坚决定价年末加息。</p>
<p>El-Erian 强调，投资者现在正在适应一个以 “高位持续” 的通胀、利率、赤字和结构性变化为特征的 结构性转变。</p>
<p>在正常的历史周期中，这种明显的鹰派转变本应引发严重的市场恐慌，并推高主权债券收益率。然而，资本市场却保持了韧性。</p>
<h2><strong>人工智能与科技企业的重任</strong></h2>
<p>市场不再依赖 货币政策缓冲，而是在私营部门创新中找到了新的支撑。企业实力，几乎完全由人工智能（AI）的增长驱动，正在抵消更广泛的宏观经济焦虑。</p>
<p>投资者正在大举押注于令人瞩目的科技表现，尤其是 <strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA) 季度收入激增 和大规模回购公告。</p>
<p>El-Erian 强调，这个蓬勃发展的科技行业正在为更广泛的金融体系承担重任，他观察到 “投资者 [正在] 大举押注于 AI 的巨大潜力和强劲收益” 来推动市场前进。</p>
<h2><strong>2026 年市场表现如何？</strong></h2>
<p>截至目前，标普 500 指数上涨了 8.97%。同样，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 13.38%，道琼斯指数年初至今上涨了 4.54%。</p>
<p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: SPY) 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: QQQ)，分别跟踪标普 500 和纳斯达克 100，周五收盘上涨。SPY 上涨 0.39%，报 745.64 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.42%，报 717.54 美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，道琼斯追踪器 <strong>State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: DIA) 周五上涨了 0.60%。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>顶级经济学家表示，特朗普对凯文·沃什的温和语气暗示，鲍威尔的激烈分歧是 ‘个人的’，而非美联储的结构性问题</strong></p>
<p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
<p>图片来源：Andy Dossett via Imagn</p>

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克 100 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

<p>穆罕默德·埃尔 - 埃里安警告称，投资者不再能够依赖中央银行在市场下行时进行救助，因为传统的安全网正在消失。他强调，通货膨胀和利率的 “长期高位” 环境正在形成，科技行业，尤其是受人工智能驱动的科技行业，正在支撑市场的韧性。尽管面临宏观经济挑战，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数等仍显示出年初至今的积极表现，反映出投资者对科技盈利的信心</p>

<p>Prominent economist <strong>Mohamed A. El-Erian</strong> is warning about a shift in market dynamics, warning that investors can no longer count on traditional central bank interventions to rescue underperforming assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>著名经济学家 <strong>Mohamed A. El-Erian</strong> 警告市场动态正在发生变化，投资者不再能够依赖传统的中央银行干预来拯救表现不佳的资产。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The Constrained Central Bank Safety Net</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>受限的中央银行安全网</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to a Substack post by El-Erian, the global economy has entered a complex environment where traditional safety nets are fading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 El-Erian 在 Substack 的一篇文章，全球经济已进入一个复杂的环境，传统的安全网正在消退。</p>
</div><p>He notes that the era of relying on aggressive regulatory bailouts or sudden interest rate cuts is structurally changing, explicitly pointing out that “most advanced countries [are] facing policy constraints.” This shift leaves the market vulnerable to structural and macroeconomic volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，依赖激进的监管救助或突然的 降息 的时代正在发生结构性变化，明确指出 “绝大多数发达国家 [面临] 政策约束。” 这种变化使市场容易受到结构性和宏观经济波动的影响。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>The Bond Market Just Fired A Warning Shot At The AI Rally — Fed Rate Hike Ahead</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>债券市场刚刚向 AI 牛市发出警告 — 美联储加息在即</strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>The ‘Higher-For-Longer’ Reality Shift</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>‘高位持续’ 现实转变</strong></h2>
</div><p>The macro environment has forced a recalibration of investor expectations. Just months ago, market consensus had heavily priced in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宏观环境迫使投资者重新评估预期。就在几个月前，市场共识 严重定价 美联储的降息。</p>
</div><p>However, persistent demand and stubborn inflationary data have upended those assumptions, forcing the futures market to firmly price in a rate hike by the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，持续的需求和顽固的通胀数据颠覆了这些假设，迫使期货市场坚决定价年末加息。</p>
</div><p>El-Erian emphasizes that investors are now adjusting to a structural shift characterized by &#34;higher-for-longer&#34; inflation, rates, deficits, and structural shifts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>El-Erian 强调，投资者现在正在适应一个以 “高位持续” 的通胀、利率、赤字和结构性变化为特征的 结构性转变。</p>
</div><p>Under normal historical cycles, such a distinct hawkish pivot would have triggered a severe market tantrum and spiked sovereign bond yields. Instead, capital markets have remained resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常的历史周期中，这种明显的鹰派转变本应引发严重的市场恐慌，并推高主权债券收益率。然而，资本市场却保持了韧性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>AI And Tech Corporate Heavy-Lifting</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>人工智能与科技企业的重任</strong></h2>
</div><p>Rather than relying on monetary policy cushions, the market has found a new backstop in private sector innovation. Corporate power, driven almost entirely by the growth of artificial intelligence (AI), is currently offsetting broader macroeconomic anxieties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场不再依赖 货币政策缓冲，而是在私营部门创新中找到了新的支撑。企业实力，几乎完全由人工智能（AI）的增长驱动，正在抵消更广泛的宏观经济焦虑。</p>
</div><p>Investors are betting heavily on spectacular tech performance, highlighted by massive windfalls like <strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong>'s (NASDAQ: NVDA) quarterly revenue surge and massive buyback announcements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在大举押注于令人瞩目的科技表现，尤其是 <strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA) 季度收入激增 和大规模回购公告。</p>
</div><p>El-Erian underscores that this booming tech sector is doing the heavy lifting for the broader financial system, observing that “investors [are] betting heavily on the enormous promise of AI and strong earnings” to carry the market forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>El-Erian 强调，这个蓬勃发展的科技行业正在为更广泛的金融体系承担重任，他观察到 “投资者 [正在] 大举押注于 AI 的巨大潜力和强劲收益” 来推动市场前进。</p>
</div><h2><strong>How Have Markets Performed In 2026?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>2026 年市场表现如何？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 index has advanced 8.97% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 13.38%, and the Dow Jones gained 4.54% YTD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，标普 500 指数上涨了 8.97%。同样，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 13.38%，道琼斯指数年初至今上涨了 4.54%。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: SPY) and <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, closed higher on Friday. The SPY was up 0.39% at $745.64, while the QQQ was lower by 0.42% to $717,54.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: SPY) 和 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: QQQ)，分别跟踪标普 500 和纳斯达克 100，周五收盘上涨。SPY 上涨 0.39%，报 745.64 美元，而 QQQ 下跌 0.42%，报 717.54 美元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Dow tracker, <strong>State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: DIA), rose 0.60% on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，道琼斯追踪器 <strong>State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</strong> (NYSE: DIA) 周五上涨了 0.60%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Top Economist Says Trump's Softer Tone On Kevin Warsh Suggests Explosive Powell Rift Was 'Personal,' Not Structural To The Fed</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>顶级经济学家表示，特朗普对凯文·沃什的温和语气暗示，鲍威尔的激烈分歧是 ‘个人的’，而非美联储的结构性问题</strong></p>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>本内容部分由 AI 工具生成，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div><p>Image Credit: Andy Dossett via Imagn</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Andy Dossett via Imagn</p>
</div>

Mohamed El-Erian Warns Investors Can No Longer Count On Central Banks To Rescue Markets During Selloffs

- 经济学家穆罕默德·A·艾尔 -埃里安警告市场动态变化。  
- 传统中央银行干预已不再可靠，市场面临结构性波动。  
- 投资者对 “高利率持久” 的新现实进行调整，技术股表现强劲。

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穆罕默德·埃尔 - 埃利安警告投资者在市场抛售期间不能再依赖央行来拯救市场