<p>在科技投资的世界中，鲜有公司能够像 <strong>苹果</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) 在 21 世纪头二十年所取得的文化和财务主导地位。 从 iPod 到 iPhone，它推出了一系列令人瞩目的必备设备，重新定义了整个硬件类别。</p>
<p>然而，一旦智能手机市场成熟，竞争对手的产品变得具有竞争力，苹果的超高速增长阶段让位于由服务、生态系统锁定和 股票回购 支撑的更为稳健的扩张。</p>
<p>今天，我认为 <strong>英伟达</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) 可能正在遵循类似的剧本。在经历了由人工智能（AI）崛起推动的数年爆炸性增长后，这家图形芯片领导者是否开始像一个成熟的苹果？</p>
<p>它们之间的相似之处令人瞩目——产品主导地位之后是估值压缩和持续的股票回购。尽管市场越来越将英伟达定价为一家稳定的 AI 基础设施企业，但其在数据中心之外尚未开发的广泛机会表明，它距离苹果在史蒂夫·乔布斯时代之后达到的创新后高原仍然遥远。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MTYwMS9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLXdpdGgtbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24taW4tZnJvbnQtMjQucG5nAjZ3PTM4NDACNm9wPXJlc2l6ZQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MTYwMS9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLXdpdGgtbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24taW4tZnJvbnQtMjQucG5nAjZ3PTM4NDACNm9wPXJlc2l6ZQ"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>苹果从产品创新者到财务工程师的转变</h2>
<p>从 2000 年代初到 2010 年代中期，苹果以其硬件产品为定义。但随着智能手机市场的饱和和更换周期的延长，苹果的增长放缓。为了避免收入停滞，苹果加大了在服务领域的努力——增强了 App Store、iCloud 和 Apple Pay，这帮助加深了其生态系统的护城河。</p>
<p>来自 服务 的经常性收入提供了一定的稳定性，即使公司的硬件增长有所减缓。然而，在表面之下，乔布斯时代之后，苹果正在经历一场根本性的转变。硬件创新变得更加稀少——AirPods 是一个显著的例外。</p>
<p>随着新产品发布的放缓，苹果转向了一项激进的股票回购计划。通过系统性地减少其股份数量，公司实际上实现了强劲的每股收益（EPS）增长，即使头条收入增长温和。</p>
<p></p>
<p>AAPL 股票回购（年度） 数据由 YCharts.</p>
<h2>英伟达的第一道裂缝开始显现了吗？</h2>
<p>在 2022 年至 2025 年间，英伟达的 GPU 成为训练和推理 AI 工作负载不可或缺的 挖掘工具。公司的数据中心收入激增，毛利率扩大，股票为那些早期买入并持有的人带来了世代回报。</p>
<p>然而，近一年来，英伟达股票的上涨轨迹相比其他 AI 芯片股票显得更加温和。在 AI 热潮早期阶段所见的爆炸性 估值扩张 开始收缩，即使公司继续交出出色的季度业绩。</p>
<p>在多年将英伟达视为 AI 超级周期的超高速受益者后，许多投资者现在似乎将这家公司框定为一家成熟的基础设施企业——在其核心市场中占据主导地位，但越来越受到大数法则的限制。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 数据由 YCharts.</p>
<p>与苹果类似，英伟达也进行了多次股票回购。我认为公司最新的 $800 亿回购 授权清楚地表明管理层认为股票被低估。</p>
<h2>英伟达不仅仅是一家数据中心业务吗？</h2>
<p>英伟达处于几个尚未达到顶峰的长期趋势的交汇点。公司与 <strong>英特尔</strong> 的 CPU 雄心、与 诺基亚 的新网络合作，以及与设备供应商如 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 和 <strong>Coherent</strong> 的战略合作代表了几个新的可寻址市场。</p>
<p>与此同时，新兴的云计算、自动驾驶领域的崛起，以及在机器人和 太空探索 方面的尝试进一步扩展了公司的机会。</p>
<p>这些举措目前并未对英伟达的财务产生显著影响。公司的业绩仍然主要由数据中心 GPU 销售驱动——我还要补充的是，这一销售正在再次加速。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英伟达</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$212.70</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$5.1 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.4 百万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>164.7 百万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.02%</p>
<p>我认为英伟达当前的估值特征低估了这些新的顺风因素。通过将其视为一家成熟的 AI 企业——就像苹果被视为一家成熟的消费科技平台一样——投资者可能忽视了公司多元化路线图中蕴含的所有选择性。</p>
<p>虽然股票回购为每股收益提供了短期支持，但这并不是英伟达的主要故事。这里的主要主题是选择权的规模，苹果在其硬件巅峰时期根本没有享受过。因此，我认为英伟达不会变成下一个苹果。该公司仍然是人工智能计算时代的重要支柱，拥有众多增长动力，远远超出任何单一产品类别。</p>

英伟达

苹果

高科技指数 ETF - SPDR

<p>这篇文章将英伟达与苹果进行了比较，暗示英伟达可能正进入一个类似于苹果在超高速增长后时代的成熟阶段。尽管英伟达因人工智能实现了爆炸性增长，但其股票表现最近已趋于稳定，这使得人们将其视为一家成熟的企业。尽管进行了股票回购并且数据中心销售强劲，英伟达的未来增长潜力仍然与各种新兴市场息息相关，这表明它不仅仅是一家数据中心公司。作者认为，英伟达多样化的机会使其与苹果的发展轨迹有所不同</p>

<p>In the world of technology investing, few companies have commanded the level of cultural and financial dominance that <strong>Apple</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) achieved during the first two decades of the 21st century. From the iPod to the iPhone, it delivered an impressive run of must-have devices that redefined entire hardware categories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在科技投资的世界中，鲜有公司能够像 <strong>苹果</strong>( AAPL +0.23%) 在 21 世纪头二十年所取得的文化和财务主导地位。 从 iPod 到 iPhone，它推出了一系列令人瞩目的必备设备，重新定义了整个硬件类别。</p>
</div><p>Yet once the smartphone market matured and rival products became competitive, Apple's hypergrowth phase gave way to a more measured expansion supported by services, ecosystem lock-in, and share repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一旦智能手机市场成熟，竞争对手的产品变得具有竞争力，苹果的超高速增长阶段让位于由服务、生态系统锁定和 股票回购 支撑的更为稳健的扩张。</p>
</div><p>Today, I think <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) may be following a similar script. After years of explosive gains driven by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), is the graphics-chip leader starting to resemble a maturing Apple?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，我认为 <strong>英伟达</strong>( NVDA +0.05%) 可能正在遵循类似的剧本。在经历了由人工智能（AI）崛起推动的数年爆炸性增长后，这家图形芯片领导者是否开始像一个成熟的苹果？</p>
</div><p>The parallels between them are striking -- product dominance followed by valuation compression and continuous stock buybacks. While the market increasingly prices Nvidia as a steady AI infrastructure business, the breadth of its untapped opportunities beyond data centers suggests it remains far from the post-innovation plateau that Apple reached after the Steve Jobs era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们之间的相似之处令人瞩目——产品主导地位之后是估值压缩和持续的股票回购。尽管市场越来越将英伟达定价为一家稳定的 AI 基础设施企业，但其在数据中心之外尚未开发的广泛机会表明，它距离苹果在史蒂夫·乔布斯时代之后达到的创新后高原仍然遥远。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzE2MDEvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1zaWduLWluLWZyb250LTI0LnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Nvidia headquarters with logo on a black sign out front." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F871601%2Fnvidia-headquarters-with-nvidia-sign-in-front-24.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's transition from product innovator to financial engineer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果从产品创新者到财务工程师的转变</h2>
</div><p>From the early 2000s through the mid-2010s, Apple was defined by its hardware products. But as the smartphone market grew saturated and replacement cycles lengthened, Apple's growth slowed. Rather than allowing revenues to stagnate, Apple intensified its efforts in the services arena -- bolstering App Store, iCloud, and Apple Pay -- which helped deepen its ecosystem moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2000 年代初到 2010 年代中期，苹果以其硬件产品为定义。但随着智能手机市场的饱和和更换周期的延长，苹果的增长放缓。为了避免收入停滞，苹果加大了在服务领域的努力——增强了 App Store、iCloud 和 Apple Pay，这帮助加深了其生态系统的护城河。</p>
</div><p>Recurring revenue from services provided a level of stability even as the company's hardware growth moderated. Yet beneath the surface, a fundamental shift was making its way through Apple in the post-Jobs era. Hardware innovations became much more rare -- AirPods being a notable exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自 服务 的经常性收入提供了一定的稳定性，即使公司的硬件增长有所减缓。然而，在表面之下，乔布斯时代之后，苹果正在经历一场根本性的转变。硬件创新变得更加稀少——AirPods 是一个显著的例外。</p>
</div><p>As new product launches slowed, Apple turned to an aggressive stock-buyback program. By systematically reducing its share count, the company essentially engineered robust earnings-per-share (EPS) growth even though headline revenue growth was modest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着新产品发布的放缓，苹果转向了一项激进的股票回购计划。通过系统性地减少其股份数量，公司实际上实现了强劲的每股收益（EPS）增长，即使头条收入增长温和。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>AAPL Stock Buyback (Annual) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 股票回购（年度） 数据由 YCharts.</p>
</div><h2>Are the first cracks beginning to show for Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的第一道裂缝开始显现了吗？</h2>
</div><p>Between 2022 and 2025, Nvidia's GPUs became the indispensable pick-and-shovel hardware for training and inferencing AI workloads. The company's data center revenue exploded, its gross margin expanded, and the stock delivered generational returns for those who bought early and held on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年至 2025 年间，英伟达的 GPU 成为训练和推理 AI 工作负载不可或缺的 挖掘工具。公司的数据中心收入激增，毛利率扩大，股票为那些早期买入并持有的人带来了世代回报。</p>
</div><p>Yet for almost a year now, the upward trajectory of Nvidia stock has been more muted compared to other AI chip stocks. The explosive valuation expansion witnessed during the early phases of the AI boom has started to compress, even as the company continues delivering outstanding quarterly results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，近一年来，英伟达股票的上涨轨迹相比其他 AI 芯片股票显得更加温和。在 AI 热潮早期阶段所见的爆炸性 估值扩张 开始收缩，即使公司继续交出出色的季度业绩。</p>
</div><p>After years of treating Nvidia as a hypergrowth beneficiary of the AI supercycle, many investors now appear to be framing the company as a maturing infrastructure business -- dominant in its core market, but increasingly hemmed in by the law of large numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在多年将英伟达视为 AI 超级周期的超高速受益者后，许多投资者现在似乎将这家公司框定为一家成熟的基础设施企业——在其核心市场中占据主导地位，但越来越受到大数法则的限制。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 数据由 YCharts.</p>
</div><p>Like Apple, Nvidia has also employed a series of share repurchases. I think the company's latest $80 billion buyback authorization is a clear signal that management believes shares are undervalued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与苹果类似，英伟达也进行了多次股票回购。我认为公司最新的 $800 亿回购 授权清楚地表明管理层认为股票被低估。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia more than just a data center business?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达不仅仅是一家数据中心业务吗？</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia sits at the intersection of several secular waves that are yet to crest. The company's CPU ambitions with <strong>Intel</strong>, its new networking partnership with Nokia, and its strategic collaborations with equipment providers such as <strong>Lumentum</strong> and <strong>Coherent</strong> represent several new addressable markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达处于几个尚未达到顶峰的长期趋势的交汇点。公司与 <strong>英特尔</strong> 的 CPU 雄心、与 诺基亚 的新网络合作，以及与设备供应商如 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 和 <strong>Coherent</strong> 的战略合作代表了几个新的可寻址市场。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the rise of neoclouds, an emerging runway in the autonomous driving space, and forays into robotics and space exploration further expand the company's opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，新兴的云计算、自动驾驶领域的崛起，以及在机器人和 太空探索 方面的尝试进一步扩展了公司的机会。</p>
</div><p>None of these initiatives is meaningfully moving the financial needle for Nvidia today. The company's results are still overwhelmingly driven by data center GPU sales -- which, might I add, are accelerating again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举措目前并未对英伟达的财务产生显著影响。公司的业绩仍然主要由数据中心 GPU 销售驱动——我还要补充的是，这一销售正在再次加速。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(0.05%) $0.10</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$212.70</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$212.70</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$5.1T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$5.1 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$211.19 - $214.28</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$132.92 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.4M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.4 百万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>164.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>164.7 百万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.02%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.02%</p>
</div><p>I think Nvidia's current valuation profile discounts these new tailwinds. By treating it as a maturing AI play -- much as Apple was perceived as a maturing consumer tech platform -- investors may be overlooking all of the optionality embedded in the company's diversified roadmap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为英伟达当前的估值特征低估了这些新的顺风因素。通过将其视为一家成熟的 AI 企业——就像苹果被视为一家成熟的消费科技平台一样——投资者可能忽视了公司多元化路线图中蕴含的所有选择性。</p>
</div><p>While stock buybacks provide short-term support to earnings per share, they are not Nvidia's primary story. The main theme here is optionality on a scale that Apple simply never enjoyed after its hardware peak. For these reasons, I do not think Nvidia is turning into the next Apple. The company is still very much a pillar of the AI computing era, with numerous growth vectors that extend well beyond any single product category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然股票回购为每股收益提供了短期支持，但这并不是英伟达的主要故事。这里的主要主题是选择权的规模，苹果在其硬件巅峰时期根本没有享受过。因此，我认为英伟达不会变成下一个苹果。该公司仍然是人工智能计算时代的重要支柱，拥有众多增长动力，远远超出任何单一产品类别。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia the Next Apple?

- 苹果从产品创新者转型为财务工程师，服务收入提升稳定性。  
- 英伟达的股价增长放缓，但仍主导数据中心市场。  
- 新兴市场机会众多，投资者需关注其多样化发展。

英伟达会成为下一个苹果吗？