<h2>关键点</h2>
<ul>
<li>基金经理加文·贝克（Gavin Baker）发现了人工智能股票的 “横向低效”。</li>
<li>他认为，便宜和昂贵的人工智能股票的估值无法同时准确。</li>
<li>人工智能股票可能在同一周期内上涨和下跌。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p>加文·贝克是对冲基金 Atreides Management 的首席投资官，已成为当今顶尖的科技投资者之一。</p>
<p>在富达管理 OTC 投资组合的八年中，贝克实现了超过 19% 的年复合回报率，并在晨星（Morningstar）上超越了 99% 的同行。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p>在 Atreides，贝克目前管理着约 70 亿美元的公共和私人投资，尽管他的完整回报并未公开，但根据 Tipranks，他的夏普比率为 2.46，远高于平均对冲基金，这意味着他能够在不承担更多风险的情况下实现更高的回报。</p>
<p>贝克还在社交媒体上分享他的见解，他刚刚发布了关于人工智能股票估值的精彩观点。</p>
<p>在 All-In 播客中，他将人工智能行业描述为 “横向低效”，解释说该行业的倍数相对于彼此并不合理。</p>
<p>他观察到，像 <strong>美光</strong>（NASDAQ: MU）和 <strong>闪迪</strong>（NASDAQ: SNDK）这样的内存股票现在很便宜。贝克还表示，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的市盈率非常低。</p>
<p>相反，他表示，涉及电力、冷却和光学的股票的倍数要高得多。像 <strong>Lumentum Holdings</strong>（NASDAQ: LITE）这样的光学芯片制造商在过去一年中上涨了 10 倍，交易时的市盈率为三位数。同样，<strong>Coherent</strong>（NYSE: COHR）也是另一只在过去一年中飙升的光学股票，市盈率也在三位数。</p>
<p>贝克进一步总结，如果像 Coherent 和 Lumentum 这样的股票的倍数是正确的，那么内存和 Nvidia 股票应该会大幅上涨。另一方面，如果 Nvidia 和美光的倍数是正确的，那么那些其他股票可能会表现不佳。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjQxMy9haS1saWdodGJ1bGIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjQxMy9haS1saWdodGJ1bGIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>是否只有一个人工智能周期？</h2>
<p>贝克的理论假设存在一个推动所有这些股票的人工智能周期。根据上述推理，光学股票与像美光这样的内存股票处于同一个人工智能周期。如果人工智能繁荣持续，他们将获胜，但如果它消退，他们将成为输家。</p>
<p>内存芯片股票有周期性的历史，投资者对该行业再次出现繁荣与萧条持谨慎态度，因为价格可能因库存从过剩到短缺而剧烈波动。</p>
<p>周期性在半导体行业普遍存在，包括光学芯片，尽管历史上内存的周期性更为严重。人工智能的不同之处在于，它使这些股票的表现超出预期，某种程度上使历史数据的参考价值降低，因为有人认为人工智能是一个长期的繁荣。然而，如果供需动态发生变化，周期的下行可能会非常严峻。</p>
<h2>投资人工智能股票的聪明方式</h2>
<p>虽然短期内动量可能会压倒估值，但估值几乎总是最终重要，因此便宜的股票在这里具有优势。正如下图所示，Lumentum 的股票显著高于美光和 Nvidia，尽管它的增长速度并不更快，而且在利润率方面远不如它们。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2IxYmM2M2RlZjllZjAxMTQ1MmJjMmFkOWE4NDBlYTc3LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2IxYmM2M2RlZjllZjAxMTQ1MmJjMmFkOWE4NDBlYTc3LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>MU 收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>Lumentum 在过去一年中的部分涨幅来自于倍数扩张，而美光并非如此，Nvidia 的估值实际上已经下降。</p>
<p>根据贝克的评论，投资人工智能股票的聪明方式似乎是选择像美光和 Nvidia 这样的便宜股票，避免依赖倍数扩张来实现增长的 Lumentum 等股票。</p>
<p>如果人工智能行业整体上涨和下跌，便宜的股票在长期内应该会表现优于昂贵的股票。</p>
<h2>现在应该购买 Nvidia 的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买 Nvidia 的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而 Nvidia 并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
<p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 465,733 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,313,467 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在，值得注意的是_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 985%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 的回报率为 211%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 5 月 29 日。</em></p>
<p><em>杰里米·鲍曼（Jeremy Bowman）持有美光科技和 Nvidia 的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐 Coherent、Lumentum、美光科技和 Nvidia 的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

COHR

美光科技

Lumentum控股

<p>Atreides Management 的首席投资官 Gavin Baker 识别出人工智能股票中的横向低效。他认为，像美光科技和英伟达这样的内存芯片被低估，市盈率较低，而像 Lumentum 和 Coherent 这样的光学股票则被高估，市盈率达到三位数。Baker 建议，如果人工智能周期持续，价格较低的股票将优于依赖于市盈率扩张的高价股票，建议投资者偏向价值而非动量</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Fund manager Gavin Baker identified a &#34;cross-sectional inefficiency&#34; in AI stocks.</li>
<li>He argued that valuations can't be accurate for both the cheap and expensive stocks in AI.</li>
<li>AI stocks may rise and fall in the same cycle.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>基金经理加文·贝克（Gavin Baker）发现了人工智能股票的 “横向低效”。</li>
<li>他认为，便宜和昂贵的人工智能股票的估值无法同时准确。</li>
<li>人工智能股票可能在同一周期内上涨和下跌。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Gavin Baker, the Chief Investment Officer of the hedge fund Atreides Management, has established itself as one of the top tech investors operating today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加文·贝克是对冲基金 Atreides Management 的首席投资官，已成为当今顶尖的科技投资者之一。</p>
</div><p>In eight years managing the OTC Portfolio at Fidelity, Baker achieved a compound annual return rate of more than 19% and outperformed 99% of his peers on Morningstar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在富达管理 OTC 投资组合的八年中，贝克实现了超过 19% 的年复合回报率，并在晨星（Morningstar）上超越了 99% 的同行。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p>At Atreides, Baker now oversees around $7 billion in public and private investments, and, though his complete returns aren't public, he does have a Sharpe ratio of 2.46, according to Tipranks, well above the average hedge fund, meaning he's able to achieve higher returns without taking on more risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Atreides，贝克目前管理着约 70 亿美元的公共和私人投资，尽管他的完整回报并未公开，但根据 Tipranks，他的夏普比率为 2.46，远高于平均对冲基金，这意味着他能够在不承担更多风险的情况下实现更高的回报。</p>
</div><p>Baker also shares his insights on social media, and he just dropped a gem on AI stock valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝克还在社交媒体上分享他的见解，他刚刚发布了关于人工智能股票估值的精彩观点。</p>
</div><p>Speaking on the All-In podcast, he described the AI sector as &#34;cross-sectionally inefficient,&#34; explaining that the multiples in the sector don't make sense relative to one another.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 All-In 播客中，他将人工智能行业描述为 “横向低效”，解释说该行业的倍数相对于彼此并不合理。</p>
</div><p>As he observes, memory stocks like <strong>Micron</strong>(NASDAQ: MU) and <strong>Sandisk</strong>(NASDAQ: SNDK) are cheap right now. Baker also says <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NASDAQ: NVDA) is trading at a really low P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他观察到，像 <strong>美光</strong>（NASDAQ: MU）和 <strong>闪迪</strong>（NASDAQ: SNDK）这样的内存股票现在很便宜。贝克还表示，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NASDAQ: NVDA）的市盈率非常低。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, he said that multiples in stocks dealing with power, cooling, and optical are much higher. Stocks like <strong>Lumentum Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ: LITE), an optical chipmaker that has jumped 10x over the last year, trade at a triple-digit price-to-earnings ratio. Similarly, <strong>Coherent</strong>(NYSE: COHR), another optical stock that has soared over the last year, trades at a triple-digit P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他表示，涉及电力、冷却和光学的股票的倍数要高得多。像 <strong>Lumentum Holdings</strong>（NASDAQ: LITE）这样的光学芯片制造商在过去一年中上涨了 10 倍，交易时的市盈率为三位数。同样，<strong>Coherent</strong>（NYSE: COHR）也是另一只在过去一年中飙升的光学股票，市盈率也在三位数。</p>
</div><p>Baker goes on to conclude that if the multiples on stocks like Coherent and Lumemtum are correct, then memory and Nvidia stocks should go a lot higher. On the other hand, if multiples on Nvidia and Micron are correct, then those other stocks are likely to underperform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝克进一步总结，如果像 Coherent 和 Lumentum 这样的股票的倍数是正确的，那么内存和 Nvidia 股票应该会大幅上涨。另一方面，如果 Nvidia 和美光的倍数是正确的，那么那些其他股票可能会表现不佳。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjQxMy9haS1saWdodGJ1bGIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F872413%2Fai-lightbulb.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is there just one AI cycle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是否只有一个人工智能周期？</h2>
</div><p>Baker's theory assumes that there is one AI cycle driving all of these stocks. According to the line of reasoning above, the optical names are in the same AI cycle as memory stocks like Micron. If the AI boom continues, they'll win, but if it fades, they'll be losers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝克的理论假设存在一个推动所有这些股票的人工智能周期。根据上述推理，光学股票与像美光这样的内存股票处于同一个人工智能周期。如果人工智能繁荣持续，他们将获胜，但如果它消退，他们将成为输家。</p>
</div><p>Memory chip stocks have a history of cyclicality, and investors are wary of another boom-and-bust in the sector as prices can fluctuate wildly due to shifts in inventory from gluts to shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存芯片股票有周期性的历史，投资者对该行业再次出现繁荣与萧条持谨慎态度，因为价格可能因库存从过剩到短缺而剧烈波动。</p>
</div><p>Cyclicality is prevalent across the semiconductor sector, including in optical chips, though the cycles have historically been more severe in memory. What is different about AI is that it has sent these stocks off the charts, arguably making history less useful by comparison, as some have argued AI is a secular boom. If supply/demand dynamics change, however, the downside of the cycle could be brutal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周期性在半导体行业普遍存在，包括光学芯片，尽管历史上内存的周期性更为严重。人工智能的不同之处在于，它使这些股票的表现超出预期，某种程度上使历史数据的参考价值降低，因为有人认为人工智能是一个长期的繁荣。然而，如果供需动态发生变化，周期的下行可能会非常严峻。</p>
</div><h2>The smart way to invest in AI stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资人工智能股票的聪明方式</h2>
</div><p>While momentum can trump valuation in the short term, valuation almost always matters eventually, so the cheaper stocks do have the advantage here. As the chart below shows, Lumentum stock is significantly more expensive than Micron and Nvidia, even though it's not growing faster, and it's much less profitable on a margin basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然短期内动量可能会压倒估值，但估值几乎总是最终重要，因此便宜的股票在这里具有优势。正如下图所示，Lumentum 的股票显著高于美光和 Nvidia，尽管它的增长速度并不更快，而且在利润率方面远不如它们。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2IxYmM2M2RlZjllZjAxMTQ1MmJjMmFkOWE4NDBlYTc3LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.ycharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fb1bc63def9ef011452bc2ad9a840ea77.png&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>MU Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MU 收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Part of Lumentum's gains over the last year have come from multiple expansion, while that isn't true of Micron, and Nvidia's valuation has actually fallen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lumentum 在过去一年中的部分涨幅来自于倍数扩张，而美光并非如此，Nvidia 的估值实际上已经下降。</p>
</div><p>Following Baker's commentary, it looks like the smart way to invest in AI stocks is to choose cheaper names like Micron and Nvidia and avoid stocks like Lumentum that have relied on multiple expansion for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据贝克的评论，投资人工智能股票的聪明方式似乎是选择像美光和 Nvidia 这样的便宜股票，避免依赖倍数扩张来实现增长的 Lumentum 等股票。</p>
</div><p>If the AI sector rises and falls as a whole, the cheaper stocks should outperform the pricier ones over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果人工智能行业整体上涨和下跌，便宜的股票在长期内应该会表现优于昂贵的股票。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该购买 Nvidia 的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买 Nvidia 的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Motley Fool Stock Advisor_分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为现在投资者应该购买的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong>……而 Nvidia 并不在其中。这 10 只入选的股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $465,733</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,313,467</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 465,733 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,313,467 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 985% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，值得注意的是_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 985%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 的回报率为 211%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of May 29, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 5 月 29 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Jeremy Bowman has positions in Micron Technology and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Coherent, Lumentum, Micron Technology, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>杰里米·鲍曼（Jeremy Bowman）持有美光科技和 Nvidia 的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐 Coherent、Lumentum、美光科技和 Nvidia 的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
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This Fund Manager Has a Brilliant Strategy for Investing in AI Stocks

- 基金经理 Gavin Baker 指出 AI 股票存在 “横截面低效”。  
- 他认为 AI 股票的估值不一致，可能同周期波动。  
- 智能投资策略是选择便宜的股票，如 Micron 和 Nvidia。

这位基金经理在投资人工智能股票方面有一个卓越的策略