<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>高盛将其韩国综合股价指数目标从 7000 点上调至 12000 点</p>
<p>货币交易员庆祝韩国基准股指在 2 月份突破 6000 点。高盛表示，市场可能会翻倍。</p>
<p>然而，在 3 月初伊朗危机肆虐之际，高盛设定的 7000 点韩国综合股价指数目标显得雄心勃勃。</p>
<p>然而，快进三个月，这一目标已经轻松超越，亚洲首席投资策略师 Tim Moe 现在将其 KOSPI KR:180721 目标上调至 12000 点，几乎比周三收盘的 8801 点高出 40%。他对市场的推荐仍然是增持。</p>
<p>Moe 大幅上调目标的驱动力是韩国公司，尤其是两家重量级内存芯片制造商三星电子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）所享受的惊人盈利增长，这两家公司几乎占据了该指数的一半。</p>
<p>韩国和台湾的指数涨幅受到共识增长预期修正的推动</p>
<p>他们的盈利前景没有放缓的迹象，实际上还受到英伟达（NVDA）首席执行官黄仁勋在周二台北参加科技会议时的评论进一步增强。黄表示，他的公司从三星和 SK 海力士购买大部分高带宽内存芯片，并请求后者 “请多生产一些”，同时对该产品表示热情。</p>
<p>这种持续的需求是 Moe 在他和他的亚洲策略团队周三发布的报告中概述的戏剧性盈利修正的背后原因。在 2026 年初，韩国市场的共识每股收益增长率为相当不错的 48%。现在这一数字已达到 277%。</p>
<p>Moe 将 2026 年盈利增长的预期从 300% 上调至 320%，并将 2027 年的盈利增长预期从 28% 上调至 35%。盈利的强劲程度使得即使 KOSPI 达到 12000 点，市场的前瞻性市盈率仍仅为 8 倍。</p>
<p>Moe 指出，由于 “计算需求增长的速度超过供应的响应速度，市场继续低估半导体内存周期的可能持续时间。” 他认为，韩国目前仅有 5 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明市场对这种供需动态的持久性持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>Moe 仍然认为市场低估了内存芯片供需失衡能够持续的时间</p>
<p>因此，Moe 认为市场仍被低估，如果韩国的 “价值提升计划” 这一政府主导的提高治理标准和更好保护少数股东的倡议取得持续进展，可能会有进一步重新评级的催化剂。</p>
<p>为了寻找支持其看涨前景的历史证据，Moe 借鉴了韩国过去应对盈利周期性的经验，发现市场高峰期的中位估值为 10 倍市盈率，而目前为 8.2 倍，市场低谷期的中位估值为 11.4 倍。Moe 计算，即使 KOSPI 遭遇战术性修正，可能也只会下跌至约 7800 点。</p>
<p>尽管 KOSPI 年初至今的 127% 回报率在全球股市中引领潮流，但台湾作为另一个与 AI 主题有显著关联的市场表现也极为出色。Moe 评估，85% 的台湾加权股价指数 TWSE TW:Y9999 与 AI 相关，这解释了他和他的团队将 2026 年的每股收益增长预测上调至 48%（从 45%）和 2027 年上调至 30%（从 28%）。AI 热潮使其最大股票——台湾半导体制造公司（TSM）受益匪浅。因此，高盛现在将 TWSE 的指数目标设定为 51000 点，比目前水平高出 12%，并将推荐评级上调至增持。</p>
<p>在周四的盘前交易中，台湾最具流动性的交易所交易基金 EWT 显示上涨 0.45%，而韩国的 EWY 则暗示下跌 0.6%。</p>
<p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>

<p>高盛将其 KOSPI 目标上调至 12,000，理由是三星和 SK 海力士的盈利激增带来了 40% 的上涨空间。Nvidia 对内存芯片的需求使 2026 年的每股收益增长预测提升至 320%。市场在前瞻性市盈率为 8 倍的情况下仍然被低估。高盛还因 AI 相关的影响，将台湾的 TWSE 目标上调至 51,000</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs raises its KOSPI index target from 7,000 to 12,000</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛将其韩国综合股价指数目标从 7000 点上调至 12000 点</p>
</div><p>Currency dealers celebrating South Korea's benchmark stock index breaking the 6,000 points, back in February. Goldman Sachs says the market could double that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币交易员庆祝韩国基准股指在 2 月份突破 6000 点。高盛表示，市场可能会翻倍。</p>
</div><p>Back at the start of March with the Iranian crisis raging, the 7,000 target for South Korea's KOSPI index set by Goldman Sachs was looking ambitious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 3 月初伊朗危机肆虐之际，高盛设定的 7000 点韩国综合股价指数目标显得雄心勃勃。</p>
</div><p>Fast forward three months, however, that objective has been comfortably exceeded and chief portfolio strategist for Asia, Tim Moe, has now boosted his KOSPI KR:180721 target to 12,000, almost 40% above Wednesday's close of 8,801. His recommendation for the market remains at overweight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，快进三个月，这一目标已经轻松超越，亚洲首席投资策略师 Tim Moe 现在将其 KOSPI KR:180721 目标上调至 12000 点，几乎比周三收盘的 8801 点高出 40%。他对市场的推荐仍然是增持。</p>
</div><p>The driving force behind Moe's massive upgrade is the spectacular earnings growth enjoyed by South Korean companies, especially the two heavyweight memory chip makers, Samsung Electronics (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660), that between them comprise almost half of the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 大幅上调目标的驱动力是韩国公司，尤其是两家重量级内存芯片制造商三星电子（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660）所享受的惊人盈利增长，这两家公司几乎占据了该指数的一半。</p>
</div><p>Index gains in Korea and Taiwan are powered by revisions to consensus growth expectations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国和台湾的指数涨幅受到共识增长预期修正的推动</p>
</div><p>Their earnings prospects show no signs of slowing and in fact were further enhanced by comments made by Nvidia's (NVDA) chief executive Jensen Huang who was attending a tech conference in Taipei on Tuesday. Huang, whose company buys most of the high-bandwidth memory chips from Samsung and SK Hynix, requested that the latter &#34;Please Make More&#34; while expressing enthusiasm for the product.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们的盈利前景没有放缓的迹象，实际上还受到英伟达（NVDA）首席执行官黄仁勋在周二台北参加科技会议时的评论进一步增强。黄表示，他的公司从三星和 SK 海力士购买大部分高带宽内存芯片，并请求后者 “请多生产一些”，同时对该产品表示热情。</p>
</div><p>This relentless demand has been behind the dramatic earnings revisions, outlined by Moe in a report he and his Asian strategy team published Wednesday. At the start of 2026, consensus earnings per share growth for the South Korean market was a pretty decent 48%. Now that figure is 277%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种持续的需求是 Moe 在他和他的亚洲策略团队周三发布的报告中概述的戏剧性盈利修正的背后原因。在 2026 年初，韩国市场的共识每股收益增长率为相当不错的 48%。现在这一数字已达到 277%。</p>
</div><p>Moe is lifting his estimates for 2026 earnings growth to 320% from 300%, and also boosted his 2027 earnings growth view to 35% from 28%. The strength of earnings is such that even if KOSPI were to achieve 12,000, the market would still only be trading on 8 times forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 将 2026 年盈利增长的预期从 300% 上调至 320%，并将 2027 年的盈利增长预期从 28% 上调至 35%。盈利的强劲程度使得即使 KOSPI 达到 12000 点，市场的前瞻性市盈率仍仅为 8 倍。</p>
</div><p>Moe points out that since &#34;the demand for compute is growing faster than supply can respond, the market continues to underprice the likely duration of the semiconductor memory cycle.&#34; That South Korea currently commands only 5 times forward earnings suggests the market is skeptical of the longevity of this supply-demand dynamic, Moe contends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 指出，由于 “计算需求增长的速度超过供应的响应速度，市场继续低估半导体内存周期的可能持续时间。” 他认为，韩国目前仅有 5 倍的前瞻性市盈率表明市场对这种供需动态的持久性持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>Moe still thinks the market is underestimating how long the supply-demand mismatch in memory chips can persist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moe 仍然认为市场低估了内存芯片供需失衡能够持续的时间</p>
</div><p>The market remains, therefore, Moe argues, undervalued with potential catalysts to rerate further if continued progress is made on Korea's 'Value-Up program,, a government-led initiative to raise governance standards and better protect minority shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Moe 认为市场仍被低估，如果韩国的 “价值提升计划” 这一政府主导的提高治理标准和更好保护少数股东的倡议取得持续进展，可能会有进一步重新评级的催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Looking for historical evidence to support his bullish outlook, Moe draws on Korea's experience of dealing with earnings cyclicality in the past and found that the median valuation during market peaks was a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, versus the present 8.2 times, and the median valuation during market troughs was 11.4 times. Moe calculates that even if KOSPI were to succumb to a tactical correction, it probably only has downside to around 7,800.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了寻找支持其看涨前景的历史证据，Moe 借鉴了韩国过去应对盈利周期性的经验，发现市场高峰期的中位估值为 10 倍市盈率，而目前为 8.2 倍，市场低谷期的中位估值为 11.4 倍。Moe 计算，即使 KOSPI 遭遇战术性修正，可能也只会下跌至约 7800 点。</p>
</div><p>While KOSPI's 127% year-to-date return has been setting the pace for stock markets globally, Taiwan, the other market with significant exposure to the AI theme, has performed extremely well also. Moe assesses 85% of the Taiwanese TWSE TW:Y9999 benchmark is exposed to AI and this explains why he and his team upped their EPS growth forecasts to 48% in 2026 (from 45%) and 30% in 2027 (from 28%). The AI boom has benefited its largest stock, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), best of all. As a consequence, Goldman Sachs now has an index target of 51,000 for the TWSE, 12% above present levels and justifying an upgrade in recommendation to overweight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 KOSPI 年初至今的 127% 回报率在全球股市中引领潮流，但台湾作为另一个与 AI 主题有显著关联的市场表现也极为出色。Moe 评估，85% 的台湾加权股价指数 TWSE TW:Y9999 与 AI 相关，这解释了他和他的团队将 2026 年的每股收益增长预测上调至 48%（从 45%）和 2027 年上调至 30%（从 28%）。AI 热潮使其最大股票——台湾半导体制造公司（TSM）受益匪浅。因此，高盛现在将 TWSE 的指数目标设定为 51000 点，比目前水平高出 12%，并将推荐评级上调至增持。</p>
</div><p>In pre-market trading Thursday, the most liquid exchange traded fund for Taiwan EWT was indicating a gain of 0.45% while Korea's EWY was suggesting a 0.6% decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四的盘前交易中，台湾最具流动性的交易所交易基金 EWT 显示上涨 0.45%，而韩国的 EWY 则暗示下跌 0.6%。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-03-26 0514ET</p>
</div>

The hottest stock market in the world has doubled this year. Now Goldman Sachs sees another 40% gain from here.

Dow Jones

高盛

韩国 MSCI ETF - iShares

三星电子

英伟达

台湾指数 MSCI ETF - iShares

台积电

GS Hldg R

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

NVIDIA Corporation

今年全球最热门的股市已经翻了一番。高盛现在预计该市场将再上涨 40%