<p>铂金最近经历了异常的波动。一年前，它的交易价格为每盎司 1,192 美元，随后上涨至 2,819 美元，最终回落至 2,000 美元以下。</p>
<p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) 今年迄今下跌了 6.86%。</p>
<p>然而，尽管市场似乎在每次反弹时都在抛售，行业专家对长期前景依然持乐观态度。供应短缺依然持续，需求基础的扩大也远远超出了传统汽车应用。</p>
<h2>短期盈余与结构性短缺</h2>
<p>根据 <strong>世界铂金投资委员会</strong>（WPIC）的数据，铂金市场在第一季度录得罕见的盈余。268,000 盎司的盈余是六个季度以来的首次。</p>
<p>伊朗的冲突导致投资者大规模清算，交易者寻求现金。与此同时，能源价格、通货膨胀和利率的担忧加剧了下跌。</p>
<p>供应也得到了提升。与 2025 年第一季度相比，总供应量增长了 18%，主要的南非矿业运营从干扰中恢复。矿山供应增长了 22%，而更高的价格鼓励了额外的回收，推动二次供应上升了 7%。</p>
<p>然而，WPIC 并不满意。该组织仍然认为存在结构性短缺，将预计的短缺从 240,000 增加到 297,000，连续第四年出现短缺。</p>
<p>库存情况进一步强化了这种看涨的观点。地面上储存的库存到年底可能会减少 15%，仅剩 170 万盎司。这个数字不足以覆盖全球需求的 3 个月。</p>
<h2>需求变化与投资者心理</h2>
<p>虽然收紧的基本面支撑市场，但 SFA（牛津）首席执行官 <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> 认为，投资者行为同样成为一个重要因素。</p>
<p>历史上，铂金投资需求高度周期性，实物持有者在价格下跌时往往会积极抛售。在接受 Mining Weekly 采访时，De Hoop 认为这种动态正在改变。</p>
<p>“铂金的投资角度越来越强，我们不会像过去那样经历同样程度的下跌，” 他在谈到来自日本和中国的投资者时表示。</p>
<p>日益增长的宏观经济不确定性是关键原因。股市波动和地缘政治风险的上升促使投资者持有实物铂金。它成为一种多元化资产，而不是短期交易。</p>
<p>投资案例正在超越铂金本身。根据 De Hoop 的说法，进入中国的一些钌进口中，可能有多达一半现在是用于投资目的，而非工业消费。</p>
<h2>新的需求驱动因素</h2>
<p>电池电动汽车仍然是需求的长期挑战，但 De Hoop 估计内燃机和混合动力汽车仍将存在。他预计十年后汽车铂金需求将下降 40%，约占总消费的三分之一。</p>
<p>与此同时，新兴技术前景可期。中国在氢基础设施方面的推动可能成为一个显著因素，因为重型氢燃料电池车辆每辆卡车可能需要 2-3 盎司铂金。</p>
<p>“如果它在某个地方成功，那就是中国，而这正是我们密切关注的地方，” 他指出。</p>
<p>人工智能基础设施也正成为需求日益重要的驱动因素。铂金族金属在生产用于半导体、光通信系统和数据中心的特种晶体中至关重要。</p>
<p>尽管如此，De Hoop 警告投资者不要忽视宏观经济风险。</p>
<p>“我们有一个最重要的商品转移通道，霍尔木兹海峡，仍然关闭，” 他说，并指出能源、化肥和工业供应链的中断正在造成通货膨胀压力，并影响全球增长预期。</p>
<p>经济增长放缓和汽车销售疲软可能最终影响 PGM 需求。即便如此，这种疲软应该是短期的，因为结构性短缺、库存下降、投资需求增加和新兴工业应用支撑了长期前景。</p>
<p><em>图片来源于 yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>

UPLT

白金信托 ETF - GraniteShares

实物白金股 ETF -ETFS

<p>尽管近期市场波动，专家们对铂金依然持乐观态度，原因在于持续的结构性短缺和不断变化的需求。尽管第一季度由于南非供应恢复出现了暂时的过剩，但 WPIC 预计到年底将持续短缺，库存也在下降。需求正从汽车领域转向氢燃料电池和人工智能基础设施，而地缘政治的不确定性则推动了对实物持有的投资需求，支持了长期价值</p>

<p>Platinum has experienced extraordinary volatility in recent times. A year ago, it traded at $1,192 per ounce, before rallying to $2,819, and eventually settling below $2,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铂金最近经历了异常的波动。一年前，它的交易价格为每盎司 1,192 美元，随后上涨至 2,819 美元，最终回落至 2,000 美元以下。</p>
</div><p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) is down 6.86% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Valterra Platinum</strong> (OTCPK: ANGPY) 今年迄今下跌了 6.86%。</p>
</div><p>Yet, despite the market seemingly selling every rally, industry experts remain constructive on the long-term outlook. Supply deficits remain persistent, and a broadening demand base continues to extend well beyond traditional automotive applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管市场似乎在每次反弹时都在抛售，行业专家对长期前景依然持乐观态度。供应短缺依然持续，需求基础的扩大也远远超出了传统汽车应用。</p>
</div><h2>Near-Term Surpluses vs. Structural Deficits</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期盈余与结构性短缺</h2>
</div><p>According to the <strong>World Platinum Investment Council</strong> (WPIC), the platinum market recorded a rare surplus in the first quarter. The 268,000-ounce surplus was the first one in six quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>世界铂金投资委员会</strong>（WPIC）的数据，铂金市场在第一季度录得罕见的盈余。268,000 盎司的盈余是六个季度以来的首次。</p>
</div><p>A conflict in Iran drove widespread investor liquidations as traders sought cash. Meanwhile, concerns regarding energy prices, inflation, and interest rates amplified the decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的冲突导致投资者大规模清算，交易者寻求现金。与此同时，能源价格、通货膨胀和利率的担忧加剧了下跌。</p>
</div><p>Supply also received a boost. Total availability rose by 18% compared to the first quarter of 2025, as key South African mining operations recovered from disruptions. Mine supply grew by 22%, while higher prices encouraged additional recycling, pushing the secondary supply up by 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应也得到了提升。与 2025 年第一季度相比，总供应量增长了 18%，主要的南非矿业运营从干扰中恢复。矿山供应增长了 22%，而更高的价格鼓励了额外的回收，推动二次供应上升了 7%。</p>
</div><p>Yet, WPIC is not impressed. The organization still sees structural undersupply, raising the projected deficit from 240,000 to 297,000 for the fourth consecutive year of shortages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，WPIC 并不满意。该组织仍然认为存在结构性短缺，将预计的短缺从 240,000 增加到 297,000，连续第四年出现短缺。</p>
</div><p>The inventory picture reinforces that bullish view. Above-ground vaulted stocks could fall by 15% to just 1.7 million ounces by year-end. That number is less than 3 months of global demand cover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>库存情况进一步强化了这种看涨的观点。地面上储存的库存到年底可能会减少 15%，仅剩 170 万盎司。这个数字不足以覆盖全球需求的 3 个月。</p>
</div><h2>Evolving Demand and Investor Psychology</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>需求变化与投资者心理</h2>
</div><p>While tightening fundamentals support the market, SFA (Oxford) CEO <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> believes investor behavior has become an equally important factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然收紧的基本面支撑市场，但 SFA（牛津）首席执行官 <strong>Henk de Hoop</strong> 认为，投资者行为同样成为一个重要因素。</p>
</div><p>Historically, platinum investment demand was highly cyclical, with physical holders often selling aggressively during price declines. In an interview for Mining Weekly, De Hoop argues the dynamic is changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，铂金投资需求高度周期性，实物持有者在价格下跌时往往会积极抛售。在接受 Mining Weekly 采访时，De Hoop 认为这种动态正在改变。</p>
</div><p>“The investment angle for platinum is getting stronger and stronger, and we’re not going to get this ride down to the same extent as what we had in the past,” he said, discussing investors from Japan and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“铂金的投资角度越来越强，我们不会像过去那样经历同样程度的下跌，” 他在谈到来自日本和中国的投资者时表示。</p>
</div><p>Growing macroeconomic uncertainty is the key reason. Stock market volatility and elevated geopolitical risk push investors to hold onto physical platinum. It becomes a diversification asset rather than a short-term trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日益增长的宏观经济不确定性是关键原因。股市波动和地缘政治风险的上升促使投资者持有实物铂金。它成为一种多元化资产，而不是短期交易。</p>
</div><p>The investment case is spreading beyond platinum itself. According to De Hoop, up to half of some ruthenium imports into China may now be destined for investment purposes rather than industrial consumption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资案例正在超越铂金本身。根据 De Hoop 的说法，进入中国的一些钌进口中，可能有多达一半现在是用于投资目的，而非工业消费。</p>
</div><h2>New Demand Drivers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新的需求驱动因素</h2>
</div><p>Battery electric vehicles remain a long-term challenge for demand, but De Hoop estimates that internal combustion and hybrid vehicles will still stick around. He sees a 40% decline in automotive platinum demand to about one-third of total consumption a decade from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电池电动汽车仍然是需求的长期挑战，但 De Hoop 估计内燃机和混合动力汽车仍将存在。他预计十年后汽车铂金需求将下降 40%，约占总消费的三分之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, emerging technologies are promising. China’s push into hydrogen infrastructure could become a notable factor, as heavy-duty hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles can require 2-3 ounces of platinum per truck.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，新兴技术前景可期。中国在氢基础设施方面的推动可能成为一个显著因素，因为重型氢燃料电池车辆每辆卡车可能需要 2-3 盎司铂金。</p>
</div><p>“If it will succeed somewhere, it will be in China, and that’s the one we follow closely,” he noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果它在某个地方成功，那就是中国，而这正是我们密切关注的地方，” 他指出。</p>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence infrastructure is also becoming an increasingly important driver of demand. Platinum group metals are essential in producing specialty crystals used in semiconductors, optical communications systems, and data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能基础设施也正成为需求日益重要的驱动因素。铂金族金属在生产用于半导体、光通信系统和数据中心的特种晶体中至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Still, De Hoop warns that investors should not ignore macroeconomic risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，De Hoop 警告投资者不要忽视宏观经济风险。</p>
</div><p>“We have one of the most important channels for commodity transfers, Hormuz, still closed,” he said, noting that disruptions to energy, fertilizer, and industrial supply chains are creating inflationary pressures and weighing on global growth expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们有一个最重要的商品转移通道，霍尔木兹海峡，仍然关闭，” 他说，并指出能源、化肥和工业供应链的中断正在造成通货膨胀压力，并影响全球增长预期。</p>
</div><p>Slower economic growth and weaker automotive sales could eventually affect PGM demand. Even so, such weaknesses should be short-term, as structural deficits, declining inventory, increasing investment demand, and emerging industrial applications support the long-term outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济增长放缓和汽车销售疲软可能最终影响 PGM 需求。即便如此，这种疲软应该是短期的，因为结构性短缺、库存下降、投资需求增加和新兴工业应用支撑了长期前景。</p>
</div><p><em>Image by yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源于 yMediaStock via Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

为什么专家在市场动荡中仍然看好铂金