<h2>关键点</h2>
<ul>
<li>Costco 和沃尔玛在最近的季度中表现出色。</li>
<li>但这两只股票目前的估值都很高，标普 500 指数也是如此。</li>
<li>沃尔玛警告可能出现消费者困境。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>好市多</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 刚刚发布了出色的财报，季度增长率达到了多年来的最高水平。<strong>沃尔玛</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) 两周前也报告了惊人的业绩，考虑到这两家公司是美国最大的实体超市公司，这充分说明了美国消费者目前的韧性。</p>
<p>然而，尽管业绩辉煌，Costco 和沃尔玛在财报发布后股价均下跌。这对投资者来说是一个警告吗？</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>消费者持续购物</h2>
<p>好市多在 2026 财年第三季度（截至 5 月 10 日）的收入同比增长了 11.6%，是自 2022 年以来的最高增速。可比销售（同店销售）增长了 9.8%，每股收益为 4.28 美元，较去年 4.93 美元有所下降。该季度的最后五周是公司历史上交易量最高的五周。</p>
<p>尽管燃料成本上升对许多公司产生了负面影响，但好市多利用这种波动性，提供低价汽油，吸引那些通常不在其加油站加油的会员。选择在好市多加油的会员通常整体消费也更高。</p>
<p>一如既往，各项指标均表现强劲，会员费收入增长了 10.7%，高管会员增长了 9.6%。</p>
<p>沃尔玛的表现也讲述了类似的故事。在 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 30 日），销售额同比增长了 7.3%，美国同店销售增长了 4.1%。每股收益（EPS）从 0.61 美元上升至 0.66 美元。全球会员费收入增长了 17.4%，公司继续利用其超过 10,000 家全球门店快速履行订单，这是其相较其他超市的关键优势。</p>
<p>其所有业务均表现良好，包括高利润的广告业务，同比增长了 37%。</p>
<h2>但这可能很快就会结束</h2>
<p>尽管业绩出色，Costco 和沃尔玛的股票在财报发布后均下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>WMT 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如上图所示，沃尔玛的报告发布后，Costco 的股价已经开始下跌。宏观经济形势令人担忧，沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·雷尼指出：“我们看到高收入客户在许多类别中信心十足地消费，而低收入消费者则更加注重预算，可能正在应对财务困境。”</p>
<p>这对美国消费者的持续韧性发出了警告。随着通货膨胀持续高企和燃料价格上涨，经济虽然强劲，但可能会开始感受到压力。</p>
<p>但事情还有更多的内容。</p>
<h2>对华尔街的警告？</h2>
<p>尽管对经济的担忧，市场仍在持续上涨。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 不断创下新高，截至目前已上涨近 11%。随着其上涨，估值也在不断提高。周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE 比率）接近 40，是一个多世纪以来的第二高水平。之前的高点 44 是在 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前达到的，随后迎来了连续三年的标普 500 损失。</p>
<p>这对好市多和沃尔玛的情况有什么影响？这两只股票的估值都变得相当昂贵；好市多的市盈率为过去 12 个月收益的 49 倍，而沃尔玛的市盈率为 41 倍。这些都是高估值，这意味着这两家公司都无法承受任何失误。</p>
<p>换句话说，在这些价格下，任何负面情绪甚至只是情绪上的负面都可能导致股价下跌。这对整个市场都是如此。沃伦·巴菲特以指出当市场贪婪时他会感到恐惧而闻名。牛市不一定意味着贪婪，但不合理的估值确实如此。如今，即使是像沃尔玛和好市多这样的安全股息股票，其交易估值也远高于多年的平均水平。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，投资者应确保他们的投资组合多样化，拥有能够在经济下滑时保护资金的核心股票，并在新股票购买时保持谨慎。</p>
<h2>现在应该购买沃尔玛的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买沃尔玛的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而沃尔玛并不在其中。这 10 只股票可能在未来几年内产生巨额回报。</p>
<p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 439,632 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,316,532 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 960%——相比之下，标普 500 的回报率为 211%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 6 月 4 日。</em></p>
<p><em>詹妮弗·赛比尔持有沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐好市多和沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>本文中表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>

沃尔玛

标普 500 指数

开市客

<p>尽管沃尔玛和开市客的财报表现出色，但由于估值过高，股价下跌。沃尔玛警告称，随着通货膨胀持续，低收入消费者可能面临困境。由于标普 500 指数的 CAPE 比率处于高位，两家零售商的交易倍数也较高，分析师建议保持谨慎，推荐在市场贪婪的情况下进行多元化投资和选择性购买</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Both Costco and Walmart reported outstanding performance in their most recent quarters.</li>
<li>But both stocks trade at expensive valuations now, as does the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>Walmart is warning of potential consumer distress.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than Walmart ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Costco 和沃尔玛在最近的季度中表现出色。</li>
<li>但这两只股票目前的估值都很高，标普 500 指数也是如此。</li>
<li>沃尔玛警告可能出现消费者困境。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) just reported an outstanding earnings report with its highest quarterly growth in years. <strong>Walmart</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) reported phenomenal results as well just two weeks ago, and since these two companies are the largest physical supermarket companies in the U.S., that says a lot about the resilience of the U.S. consumer right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>好市多</strong>(NASDAQ: COST) 刚刚发布了出色的财报，季度增长率达到了多年来的最高水平。<strong>沃尔玛</strong>(NASDAQ: WMT) 两周前也报告了惊人的业绩，考虑到这两家公司是美国最大的实体超市公司，这充分说明了美国消费者目前的韧性。</p>
</div><p>However, despite the brilliant results, both Costco and Walmart fell after earnings. Is this a warning for investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管业绩辉煌，Costco 和沃尔玛在财报发布后股价均下跌。这对投资者来说是一个警告吗？</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjU5My9hLXBlcnNvbi13aXRoLWEtYmFieS1wdXR0aW5nLWdyb2NlcnktYmFncy1pbi1hLWNhci10cnVuay5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F872593%2Fa-person-with-a-baby-putting-grocery-bags-in-a-car-trunk.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Shoppers keep shopping</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>消费者持续购物</h2>
</div><p>Costco's revenue increased 11.6% year over year in the 2026 fiscal third quarter (ended May 10), its highest rate since 2022. Comparable sales (comps) were up 9.8%, and earnings per share were $4.28, up from $4.93 the year before. The last five weeks of the quarter were the company's highest-volume five-week period ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好市多在 2026 财年第三季度（截至 5 月 10 日）的收入同比增长了 11.6%，是自 2022 年以来的最高增速。可比销售（同店销售）增长了 9.8%，每股收益为 4.28 美元，较去年 4.93 美元有所下降。该季度的最后五周是公司历史上交易量最高的五周。</p>
</div><p>Although higher fuel costs have been negatively impacting many companies, Costco is using the volatility to its advantage, providing lower-cost gas and attracting members who don't usually fill up at its stations. Members who fuel up at Costco also tend to spend more overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管燃料成本上升对许多公司产生了负面影响，但好市多利用这种波动性，提供低价汽油，吸引那些通常不在其加油站加油的会员。选择在好市多加油的会员通常整体消费也更高。</p>
</div><p>As usual, there was strong growth across metrics, with membership fee income up 10.7% and executive membership up 9.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一如既往，各项指标均表现强劲，会员费收入增长了 10.7%，高管会员增长了 9.6%。</p>
</div><p>Walmart's performance tells a similar story. In the 2027 fiscal first quarter (ended April 30), sales were up 7.3% over last year, with a 4.1% increase in U.S. comps. Earnings per share (EPS) were up from $0.61 to $0.66. Global membership fee revenue was up 17.4%, and the company continues to leverage its 10,000+ global store base to fulfill orders quickly, a key advantage over other supermarkets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的表现也讲述了类似的故事。在 2027 财年第一季度（截至 4 月 30 日），销售额同比增长了 7.3%，美国同店销售增长了 4.1%。每股收益（EPS）从 0.61 美元上升至 0.66 美元。全球会员费收入增长了 17.4%，公司继续利用其超过 10,000 家全球门店快速履行订单，这是其相较其他超市的关键优势。</p>
</div><p>All of its businesses are performing well, including the high-margin advertising business, which was up 37% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其所有业务均表现良好，包括高利润的广告业务，同比增长了 37%。</p>
</div><h2>But that might end soon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但这可能很快就会结束</h2>
</div><p>Despite fabulous results, both Costco and Walmart stock fell after the releases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管业绩出色，Costco 和沃尔玛的股票在财报发布后均下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEueWNoYXJ0cy5jb20vY2hhcnRzL2VlOTU4MjhmMjQ1YzUyNTU1YzI4YmUyNGZkYjNiNTg5LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.ycharts.com%2Fcharts%2Fee95828f245c52555c28be24fdb3b589.png&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>WMT data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WMT 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Costco stock had already been falling after Walmart's report, as seen in the chart above. The macro picture is worrisome, as Walmart CFO John Rainey noted: &#34;We see with our customers that the high-income customer is spending with confidence in many categories, while the lower-income consumer is more budget-conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，沃尔玛的报告发布后，Costco 的股价已经开始下跌。宏观经济形势令人担忧，沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·雷尼指出：“我们看到高收入客户在许多类别中信心十足地消费，而低收入消费者则更加注重预算，可能正在应对财务困境。”</p>
</div><p>That's a warning about the continued resilience of the U.S. consumer. As inflation remains relentless and fuel prices increase, the economy, which has been strong, might start feeling the pinch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对美国消费者的持续韧性发出了警告。随着通货膨胀持续高企和燃料价格上涨，经济虽然强劲，但可能会开始感受到压力。</p>
</div><p>But there's more to the story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但事情还有更多的内容。</p>
</div><h2>Warning to Wall Street?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对华尔街的警告？</h2>
</div><p>Despite worries about the economy, the market continues to zoom higher. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> keeps hitting new highs, and it's up nearly 11% year to date as of this writing. As it climbs, it's becoming more expensive. The cyclically adjusted P/E, or CAPE ratio, is nearly 40, its second-highest level in more than a century of tracking. The previous high of 44 was reached right before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, ushering in three consecutive years of S&amp;P 500 losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对经济的担忧，市场仍在持续上涨。<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 不断创下新高，截至目前已上涨近 11%。随着其上涨，估值也在不断提高。周期性调整后的市盈率（CAPE 比率）接近 40，是一个多世纪以来的第二高水平。之前的高点 44 是在 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前达到的，随后迎来了连续三年的标普 500 损失。</p>
</div><p>How does that play into what's happening at Costco and Walmart? Both stocks have become quite expensive; Costco trades at 49 times trailing-12-month earnings, while Walmart trades at 41 times trailing-12-month earnings. Those are premium valuations, which means that neither company can afford any missteps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这对好市多和沃尔玛的情况有什么影响？这两只股票的估值都变得相当昂贵；好市多的市盈率为过去 12 个月收益的 49 倍，而沃尔玛的市盈率为 41 倍。这些都是高估值，这意味着这两家公司都无法承受任何失误。</p>
</div><p>In other words, at these prices, any negativity, even only in sentiment, can send the stock down. And that goes for the entire market. Warren Buffett is famous for noting that he gets fearful when the market is greedy. Bull markets don't have to imply greed, but unreasonable valuations do. Today, even safe dividend stocks like Walmart and Costco are trading at valuations well above multi-year averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，在这些价格下，任何负面情绪甚至只是情绪上的负面都可能导致股价下跌。这对整个市场都是如此。沃伦·巴菲特以指出当市场贪婪时他会感到恐惧而闻名。牛市不一定意味着贪婪，但不合理的估值确实如此。如今，即使是像沃尔玛和好市多这样的安全股息股票，其交易估值也远高于多年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>In this situation, investors should make sure that they're well diversified with anchor stocks that can protect their funds in the case of a downturn, and be choosy about new stock purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，投资者应确保他们的投资组合多样化，拥有能够在经济下滑时保护资金的核心股票，并在新股票购买时保持谨慎。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in Walmart right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在应该购买沃尔玛的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买沃尔玛的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而沃尔玛并不在其中。这 10 只股票可能在未来几年内产生巨额回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $439,632</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,316,532</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 439,632 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,316,532 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 960% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在值得注意的是，<em>Stock Advisor</em> 的总平均回报率为 960%——相比之下，标普 500 的回报率为 211%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名股票名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of June 4, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 6 月 4 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Costco Wholesale and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>詹妮弗·赛比尔持有沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 持有并推荐好市多和沃尔玛的股份。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文中表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映纳斯达克公司的观点。</p>
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Did Walmart and Costco Just Trigger a Major Warning for the Market?

- Costco 和 Walmart 近期季度业绩表现优异，股价却下跌。  
- Walmart 警告潜在消费者困境，表明高收入者消费信心强，而低收入者则受压。  
- S&P 500 估值高，投资者需谨慎选择，建议多元化投资。

沃尔玛和开市客是否刚刚触发了市场的重大警告信号？