<p>比尔·彼得斯</p>
<p>沃尔玛的股票在今年落后于同行和标准普尔 500 指数，一些分析师指出，公司的业务仍然以低利润的食品杂货销售为主。</p>
<p>截至目前，沃尔玛的股票表现落后于好市多、亚马逊、塔吉特以及标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
<p>在本十年中，沃尔玛的股票表现一直非常出色，但现在它在与最大竞争对手和整体市场的竞争中显得力不从心。</p>
<p>几个因素帮助解释了沃尔玛股票近期的表现不佳，今年迄今仅上涨 6%，落后于好市多、塔吉特和亚马逊等竞争对手的股票。沃尔玛成功吸引了因通货膨胀而感到疲惫的消费者，并积极拥抱电子商务，但分析师表示，过去的收益与消费者的压力相碰撞，可能对公司在技术领域的探索和努力保持低价以牺牲利润的期望过于不切实际。</p>
<p>分析师们对沃尔玛的前景仍持乐观态度，但表示自去年以来，股票的定价已趋于完美。当沃尔玛上个月发布的第一季度财报略显不完美时，一些投资者选择了撤离，这也是今年股票表现疲软的一个重要因素。</p>
<p>根据 Zacks 研究总监 Sheraz Mian 的说法，该报告的一个问题是，沃尔玛选择承担与燃料、关税和其他供应中断相关的一些额外成本，而不是将所有成本转嫁给消费者。</p>
<p>一些分析师发现了其他问题。尽管沃尔玛在零售领域占据主导地位，但其运营利润率尚未恢复到十多年前的水平，即亚马逊成为更强竞争威胁之前的水平。他们还指出，沃尔玛的一些大型技术投资——如人工智能、在线购物和广告——掩盖了沃尔玛本质上仍然是一个非常大的食品杂货店，附带一些其他业务的事实。</p>
<p>沃尔玛的股票估值可能接近大型科技公司。但晨星分析师 Brett Husslein 表示，与亚马逊不同，沃尔玛并没有一个庞大的云计算业务来支撑利润率。</p>
<p>“他们主要是一家低利润的食品杂货零售商，我们认为市场在定价他们超越历史最高盈利水平，” 他说。</p>
<p>虽然食品杂货销售驱动了沃尔玛大部分的业务，但食品和饮料的利润率低于商店中其他没有过期日期的商品。Husslein 表示，公司需要从那些利润率更高的非食品杂货商品中创造更多业务，特别是电子产品、服装和家居用品等一般商品，以提升利润率和股票表现。</p>
<p>沃尔玛的股票在周四上涨了 1.4%。但当投资者聚集在沃尔玛的年度股东大会上时，该公司年初至今的 6% 涨幅落后于其他零售巨头。</p>
<p>塔吉特（TGT）截至目前上涨了 27.7%，得益于低预期和新领导层推动的反弹。好市多（COST）在此期间上涨了 13.7%，随着对会员续费率下降的担忧开始减退。</p>
<p>在线零售巨头亚马逊（AMZN）今年上涨了 10.1%。标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）截至目前上涨了 10.5%。</p>
<p>与此同时，沃尔玛未来 12 个月的市盈率——一个可以用来衡量股票是否被高估的指标——截至周二约为 37，是标准普尔 500 中第 52 高的。</p>
<p>在今年，沃尔玛的市场估值偶尔突破 1 万亿美元的门槛，但公司一直难以维持在这一水平。周四时，其市值约为 9400 亿美元。</p>
<p>Husslein 在今年早些时候指出，沃尔玛的运营利润率需要接近其历史高点——即超过 6%——才能证明其高估值。这是十多年来未见的水平。在第一季度，沃尔玛的运营利润率为 4.2%，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
<p>Husslein 预测，到本世纪末，利润率将扩大到 5.6%。他说，沃尔玛的美国一般商品业务在 2011 财年占据了市场的 13.8% 份额。在 2026 财年，由于竞争加剧，该市场份额降至 11.1%。</p>
<p>过去四年，对更多非必需品的需求也受到影响，价格上涨使更多消费者转向食品杂货等基本商品。</p>
<p>随着伊朗战争使美国平均汽油价格保持在每加仑 4 美元以上，沃尔玛高管在上个月的财报电话会议上表示，人们在油箱中加油的数量减少——这是消费者焦虑加深的迹象。他们还表示，如果燃料成本保持高位，商店中的商品价格可能会继续上涨。</p>
<p>D.A. Davidson 分析师 Michael Baker 表示，沃尔玛在某种程度上是自身成功的受害者。</p>
<p>“在过去几年中，这是一只非常好的股票，” 他表示，轻松超越了好市多和标准普尔 500 在过去两年的表现。</p>
<p>“估值已经上升，并且以溢价交易，” 他补充道。“因此，股票的表现不如过去几年那么好。”</p>
<p>-比尔·彼得斯</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-04-26 1240ET</p>

沃尔玛

亚马逊

开市客

塔吉特

<p>沃尔玛的股票在今年表现不及竞争对手如开市客、塔吉特和亚马逊，仅上涨了 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 10.5%。分析师将此归因于低利润率的食品杂货主导地位、消费者压力以及与不尽如人意的收益相冲突的完美估值。尽管进行了科技投资，沃尔玛仍缺乏云计算等高利润率业务来证明其约 37 的市盈率。投资者对停滞的运营利润率和一般商品领域的竞争表示担忧</p>

<p>By Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比尔·彼得斯</p>
</div><p>Walmart shares have lagged peers and the S&amp;P 500 this year, with some analysts noting that business is still dominated by low-margin grocery sales</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的股票在今年落后于同行和标准普尔 500 指数，一些分析师指出，公司的业务仍然以低利润的食品杂货销售为主。</p>
</div><p>Walmart shares have trailed those of Costco, Amazon.com, Target - and the S&amp;P 500 index so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，沃尔玛的股票表现落后于好市多、亚马逊、塔吉特以及标准普尔 500 指数。</p>
</div><p>Walmart has been a killer stock for the better part of this decade, but it's now struggling to keep pace with its biggest rivals and the overall market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本十年中，沃尔玛的股票表现一直非常出色，但现在它在与最大竞争对手和整体市场的竞争中显得力不从心。</p>
</div><p>Several factors help explain the recent underperformance of Walmart shares, which are up just 6% so far this year, lagging behind rival stocks like Costco, Target and Amazon.com. Walmart has had success drawing inflation-fatigued shoppers and embracing e-commerce, but analysts say past gains are colliding with consumer stresses, potentially unrealistic expectations around the company's tech forays and efforts to keep prices low at the expense of margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几个因素帮助解释了沃尔玛股票近期的表现不佳，今年迄今仅上涨 6%，落后于好市多、塔吉特和亚马逊等竞争对手的股票。沃尔玛成功吸引了因通货膨胀而感到疲惫的消费者，并积极拥抱电子商务，但分析师表示，过去的收益与消费者的压力相碰撞，可能对公司在技术领域的探索和努力保持低价以牺牲利润的期望过于不切实际。</p>
</div><p>Analysts are still upbeat on Walmart's prospects overall, but say the stock has been priced to perfection since last year. And when Walmart's first-quarter earnings last month came out slightly less than perfect, some investors fled, a big factor behind this year's sluggish stock performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师们对沃尔玛的前景仍持乐观态度，但表示自去年以来，股票的定价已趋于完美。当沃尔玛上个月发布的第一季度财报略显不完美时，一些投资者选择了撤离，这也是今年股票表现疲软的一个重要因素。</p>
</div><p>One issue with that report, according to Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, is that Walmart opted to eat some of the extra costs related to fuel, tariffs and other supply disruptions, rather than pass all of it on to consumers in the form of price increases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Zacks 研究总监 Sheraz Mian 的说法，该报告的一个问题是，沃尔玛选择承担与燃料、关税和其他供应中断相关的一些额外成本，而不是将所有成本转嫁给消费者。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts have found other issues. Despite Walmart dominating the retail universe, its operating margins have yet to rebound to levels seen more than a decade ago, before Amazon.com (AMZN) became a fiercer competitive threat. And they suggested some of Walmart's bigger tech investments - things like AI, online shopping and advertising - masked the fact that, at its core, Walmart is essentially a very large grocery store with some ancillary businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师发现了其他问题。尽管沃尔玛在零售领域占据主导地位，但其运营利润率尚未恢复到十多年前的水平，即亚马逊成为更强竞争威胁之前的水平。他们还指出，沃尔玛的一些大型技术投资——如人工智能、在线购物和广告——掩盖了沃尔玛本质上仍然是一个非常大的食品杂货店，附带一些其他业务的事实。</p>
</div><p>Walmart may have a stock valuation in the neighborhood of a big tech company. But Morningstar analyst Brett Husslein said that, unlike Amazon, it doesn't have a massive cloud-computing business to prop up margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的股票估值可能接近大型科技公司。但晨星分析师 Brett Husslein 表示，与亚马逊不同，沃尔玛并没有一个庞大的云计算业务来支撑利润率。</p>
</div><p>&#34;They are primarily a low-margin grocery retailer, and we think the market is pricing in them exceeding all-time highs in profitability,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他们主要是一家低利润的食品杂货零售商，我们认为市场在定价他们超越历史最高盈利水平，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>While grocery sales drive most of Walmart's business, the margins on food and beverages are lower than those of other items in the store that don't have expiration dates. Husslein said the company needs to generate more business from those higher-margin nongrocery items - in particular, general-merchandise products such as electronics, clothes and housewares - to boost margins and the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然食品杂货销售驱动了沃尔玛大部分的业务，但食品和饮料的利润率低于商店中其他没有过期日期的商品。Husslein 表示，公司需要从那些利润率更高的非食品杂货商品中创造更多业务，特别是电子产品、服装和家居用品等一般商品，以提升利润率和股票表现。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Walmart were up 1.4% on Thursday. But as investors gathered for Walmart's annual shareholder meeting on Thursday, the company's 6% year-to-date gains trail those of other retail giants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃尔玛的股票在周四上涨了 1.4%。但当投资者聚集在沃尔玛的年度股东大会上时，该公司年初至今的 6% 涨幅落后于其他零售巨头。</p>
</div><p>Target (TGT) has gained 27.7% so far this year, helped by low expectations and a rebound driven by new leadership. Costco Wholesale (COST) is up 13.7% over that period, as concerns about slipping membership renewal rates start to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>塔吉特（TGT）截至目前上涨了 27.7%，得益于低预期和新领导层推动的反弹。好市多（COST）在此期间上涨了 13.7%，随着对会员续费率下降的担忧开始减退。</p>
</div><p>Online retail giant Amazon.com (AMZN), meanwhile, is up 10.1% this year. The S&amp;P 500 index SPX is up 10.5% so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在线零售巨头亚马逊（AMZN）今年上涨了 10.1%。标准普尔 500 指数（SPX）截至目前上涨了 10.5%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Walmart's price-to-earnings ratio for the next 12 months - a metric that can be used to gauge whether a stock is overvalued - stood at around 37 as of Tuesday, the 52nd highest in the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，沃尔玛未来 12 个月的市盈率——一个可以用来衡量股票是否被高估的指标——截至周二约为 37，是标准普尔 500 中第 52 高的。</p>
</div><p>Over this year, Walmart's market valuation has occasionally cracked the $1 trillion barrier, but the company has struggled to stay there. It had a market capitalization of about $940 billion on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年，沃尔玛的市场估值偶尔突破 1 万亿美元的门槛，但公司一直难以维持在这一水平。周四时，其市值约为 9400 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Husslein noted earlier this year that Walmart's operating margins would need to be closer to its historic highs - or more than 6% - to justify its lofty valuation. That's a level not seen in more than a decade. In the first quarter, Walmart's operating margin stood at 4.2%, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Husslein 在今年早些时候指出，沃尔玛的运营利润率需要接近其历史高点——即超过 6%——才能证明其高估值。这是十多年来未见的水平。在第一季度，沃尔玛的运营利润率为 4.2%，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
</div><p>Husslein forecasts margins expanding to 5.6% by the end of the decade. He said that Walmart's U.S. general merchandise business commanded a 13.8% share of the market in fiscal 2011. In fiscal 2026, that market share stood at 11.1% due to heightened competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Husslein 预测，到本世纪末，利润率将扩大到 5.6%。他说，沃尔玛的美国一般商品业务在 2011 财年占据了市场的 13.8% 份额。在 2026 财年，由于竞争加剧，该市场份额降至 11.1%。</p>
</div><p>Demand for more discretionary goods has also suffered over the past four years, with higher prices steering more shoppers toward basics like groceries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去四年，对更多非必需品的需求也受到影响，价格上涨使更多消费者转向食品杂货等基本商品。</p>
</div><p>As the Iran war keeps average U.S. gas prices above $4 a gallon, Walmart executives said during the chain's earnings call last month that people weren't putting as much gas in their tanks - a sign of deeper consumer anxiety. They also said prices of items in stores could keep climbing if fuel costs stay elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着伊朗战争使美国平均汽油价格保持在每加仑 4 美元以上，沃尔玛高管在上个月的财报电话会议上表示，人们在油箱中加油的数量减少——这是消费者焦虑加深的迹象。他们还表示，如果燃料成本保持高位，商店中的商品价格可能会继续上涨。</p>
</div><p>D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker said that Walmart, to some degree, has been a victim of its own success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>D.A. Davidson 分析师 Michael Baker 表示，沃尔玛在某种程度上是自身成功的受害者。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's been a very good stock over the last few years,&#34; easily beating out Costco and the S&amp;P 500 over the past two calendar years, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在过去几年中，这是一只非常好的股票，” 他表示，轻松超越了好市多和标准普尔 500 在过去两年的表现。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The valuation has increased and is trading at a premium,&#34; he added. &#34;So it's just harder for the stock to work as well as it has the last few years.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“估值已经上升，并且以溢价交易，” 他补充道。“因此，股票的表现不如过去几年那么好。”</p>
</div><p>-Bill Peters</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-比尔·彼得斯</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-04-26 1240ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-04-26 1240ET</p>
</div>

Walmart's stock was once a market darling. Now its tech-fueled valuation faces a reality check.

- 沃尔玛股价今年表现逊色，涨幅仅为 6% 。  
- 低利润的食品销售占主导，且面临激烈竞争。  
- 股价估值过高，需提高毛利以支撑市场预期。

沃尔玛的股票曾经是市场的宠儿。如今，其由技术推动的估值正面临现实的考验