<p>瑞银投资银行预计，第二季度上升的再通胀预期将成为中国消费领域的一个关键催化剂，特别是在日用消费品方面，瑞银投资银行大中华区消费研究负责人 Christine Peng 表示。这个观点基于上游成本上升和供需动态改善，这些尚未完全反映在当前的股价中。</p>
<p>该银行指出，中国 4 月份的 PPI 同比加速至 2.8%，主要受到能源价格快速上涨的推动，而 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，受到猪肉价格疲软的影响。如果生猪价格反弹并在下半年保持高位，并且高能源成本部分传导至下游，CPI 预计将逐步上升。</p>
<p>瑞银认为，消费将在 2026 年继续呈现&#34;K 型&#34;复苏，主要受以下因素驱动：(1) 稳定的房地产市场和上涨的股市带来的财富效应；(2) 工业企业的盈利增长。该银行观察到，过去两个季度更快的库存去化（如白酒）、渠道多样化、产能减少（在养猪和乳制品行业）以及行业整合有助于增强定价能力并保护利润率。市场仍低估了再通胀的潜力，这可以通过一些公司早期的提价和下半年生猪价格的潜在反弹来证明。</p>
<p>瑞银在中国消费领域的首选股票包括：牧原股份 (02714.HK) -0.260 (-0.798%) 空头头寸 429 万美元；比例 8.671%，贵州茅台 (600519.SH) +4.860 (+0.383%)，伊利股份 (600887.SH) +0.010 (+0.039%)，东鹏饮料 (09980.HK) -8.400 (-6.078%) 空头头寸 997 万美元；比例 13.468%，古井贡酒 (01364.HK) +0.140 (+0.612%) 空头头寸 4032 万美元；比例 39.040%，百胜中国 (09987.HK) -2.000 (-0.598%) 空头头寸 3632 万美元；比例 16.517%，海底捞 (06862.HK) -0.040 (-0.318%) 空头头寸 3673 万美元；比例 27.678%，中国人寿啤酒 (00291.HK) -0.260 (-1.088%) 空头头寸 3563 万美元；比例 16.971%，安克创新 (300866.SZ) -3.260 (-2.824%)，安踏体育 (02020.HK) -0.100 (-0.135%) 空头头寸 7900 万美元；比例 21.204%，老铺黄金 (06181.HK) -9.000 (-1.768%) 空头头寸 8452 万美元；比例 33.821% 和美团 (09896.HK) -0.200 (-0.771%) 空头头寸 1691 万美元；比例 17.892%。最不受欢迎的是：盛趣游戏 (600779.SH) +0.540 (+1.746%) 和永辉超市 (601933.SH) +0.050 (+1.466%) 。</p>
<p>（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短线卖空数据截至 2026-06-05 16:25。）（A 股报价延迟至少 15 分钟。）</p>

贵州茅台

伊利股份

水井坊

永辉超市

安克创新

<p>瑞银预计中国消费行业将在 2026 年保持 K 型复苏，主要受房地产市场稳定和股权财富上升的推动。该银行强调，由于上游成本和供需动态改善，通货再膨胀的潜力正在上升，而市场对此的低估。瑞银列出了包括贵州茅台、伊利股份和安克创新在内的首选股票，同时对 Swellfun 和永辉超市的偏好最低</p>

<p>UBS Investment Bank expected rising reflation expectations in 2H to become a key catalyst for China’s consumer sector, particularly in staples, Christine Peng, Head of Greater China Consumer Research, UBS Investment Bank, wrote. This view was based on rising upstream costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, which have yet to be fully reflected in current share prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银投资银行预计，第二季度上升的再通胀预期将成为中国消费领域的一个关键催化剂，特别是在日用消费品方面，瑞银投资银行大中华区消费研究负责人 Christine Peng 表示。这个观点基于上游成本上升和供需动态改善，这些尚未完全反映在当前的股价中。</p>
</div><p>The bank noted that China’s April PPI accelerated to 2.8% YoY, mainly propelled by a rapid rise in energy prices, while CPI grew 1.2% YoY, dented by weak pork prices. If hog prices rebound and remain elevated in 2H, and if high energy costs are partially passed through downstream, CPI is expected to drift higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行指出，中国 4 月份的 PPI 同比加速至 2.8%，主要受到能源价格快速上涨的推动，而 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，受到猪肉价格疲软的影响。如果生猪价格反弹并在下半年保持高位，并且高能源成本部分传导至下游，CPI 预计将逐步上升。</p>
</div><p>UBS believed consumption will continue to show a &#34;K-shaped&#34; recovery in 2026, mainly motivated by: (1) wealth effects from a stabilizing property market and rising equity market; and (2) earnings growth of industrial enterprises. The bank observed that faster inventory destocking (such as in baijiu), channel diversification, capacity reduction (in hog farming and dairy), and industry consolidation over the past two quarters helped strengthen pricing power and protect margins. The market still underestimates reflation potential, which could be evidenced by early price hikes by some companies and a potential rebound in hog prices in 2H.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银认为，消费将在 2026 年继续呈现&#34;K 型&#34;复苏，主要受以下因素驱动：(1) 稳定的房地产市场和上涨的股市带来的财富效应；(2) 工业企业的盈利增长。该银行观察到，过去两个季度更快的库存去化（如白酒）、渠道多样化、产能减少（在养猪和乳制品行业）以及行业整合有助于增强定价能力并保护利润率。市场仍低估了再通胀的潜力，这可以通过一些公司早期的提价和下半年生猪价格的潜在反弹来证明。</p>
</div><p>UBS’s top picks in China’s consumer sector are MUYUAN (02714.HK) -0.260 (-0.798%)  Short selling $4.29M; Ratio 8.671%  , KWEICHOW MOUTAI (600519.SH) +4.860 (+0.383%)  , YILI (600887.SH) +0.010 (+0.039%)  , EASTROC (09980.HK) -8.400 (-6.078%)  Short selling $9.97M; Ratio 13.468%  , GUMING (01364.HK) +0.140 (+0.612%)  Short selling $40.32M; Ratio 39.040%  , YUM CHINA (09987.HK) -2.000 (-0.598%)  Short selling $36.32M; Ratio 16.517%  , HAIDILAO (06862.HK) -0.040 (-0.318%)  Short selling $36.73M; Ratio 27.678%  , CHINA RES BEER (00291.HK) -0.260 (-1.088%)  Short selling $35.63M; Ratio 16.971%  , ANKER (300866.SZ) -3.260 (-2.824%)  , ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK) -0.100 (-0.135%)  Short selling $79.00M; Ratio 21.204%  , LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK) -9.000 (-1.768%)  Short selling $84.52M; Ratio 33.821%  and MNSO (09896.HK) -0.200 (-0.771%)  Short selling $16.91M; Ratio 17.892%  . The least preferred are SWELLFUN (600779.SH) +0.540 (+1.746%)  and YONGHUI SUPERSTORES (601933.SH) +0.050 (+1.466%)  .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银在中国消费领域的首选股票包括：牧原股份 (02714.HK) -0.260 (-0.798%) 空头头寸 429 万美元；比例 8.671%，贵州茅台 (600519.SH) +4.860 (+0.383%)，伊利股份 (600887.SH) +0.010 (+0.039%)，东鹏饮料 (09980.HK) -8.400 (-6.078%) 空头头寸 997 万美元；比例 13.468%，古井贡酒 (01364.HK) +0.140 (+0.612%) 空头头寸 4032 万美元；比例 39.040%，百胜中国 (09987.HK) -2.000 (-0.598%) 空头头寸 3632 万美元；比例 16.517%，海底捞 (06862.HK) -0.040 (-0.318%) 空头头寸 3673 万美元；比例 27.678%，中国人寿啤酒 (00291.HK) -0.260 (-1.088%) 空头头寸 3563 万美元；比例 16.971%，安克创新 (300866.SZ) -3.260 (-2.824%)，安踏体育 (02020.HK) -0.100 (-0.135%) 空头头寸 7900 万美元；比例 21.204%，老铺黄金 (06181.HK) -9.000 (-1.768%) 空头头寸 8452 万美元；比例 33.821% 和美团 (09896.HK) -0.200 (-0.771%) 空头头寸 1691 万美元；比例 17.892%。最不受欢迎的是：盛趣游戏 (600779.SH) +0.540 (+1.746%) 和永辉超市 (601933.SH) +0.050 (+1.466%) 。</p>
</div><p>(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-05 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短线卖空数据截至 2026-06-05 16:25。）（A 股报价延迟至少 15 分钟。）</p>
</div>

UBS: CN Consumption to Maintain K-Shaped Recovery This Yr; Mkt Still Underestimates Reflation Potential; Sector Top Picks Listed

AASTOCKS News

瑞银集团

牧原股份

东鹏饮料

古茗

百胜中国

海底捞

华润啤酒

安踏体育

老铺黄金

名创优品

华润啤酒-R

安踏体育-R

Laopu Gld HK SDR 50to1

瑞银：预计中国消费今年将继续呈现 K 型复苏；市场仍然低估了再通胀的潜力；列出了行业的首选股