<p>作者：Jamie Chisholm</p>
<p>TS Lombard 分析师认为 “资本支出回收” 的趋势是一个问题</p>
<p>一部智能手机显示了美国人工智能安全与研究公司 Anthropic 的标志。Anthropic 即将进行的 IPO 可能是市场见顶的另一个信号。</p>
<p>本周股市再次创下新高。尽管最近几天出现了一些行业轮动，但市场近期的涨幅主要是由于对人工智能的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>TS Lombard 经济学家 Dario Perkins 表示，牛市支持者在声称他们赢得了人工智能资本支出辩论时过于仓促，此外，还有两个即将到来的因素表明市场回调的可能性很大。</p>
<p>在周四发布的一份分析中，Perkins 指出，去年有一段时间，投资者开始担心人工智能资本支出的可持续性；他们在问潜在回报是否值得巨额支出。“但今天这些担忧已经消失。随着收入和股价飙升，牛市支持者准备宣布胜利，” 他说。</p>
<p>然而，Perkins 认为关于人工智能资本支出可持续性的辩论远未结束。“这是因为我们所看到的大部分情况——无论是收入还是技术生态系统中的各种瓶颈——仍然是资本支出回收的结果，” 他说。</p>
<p>例如，Perkins 表示，超大规模云服务商正在向那些目前收入不足以满足这些义务的公司预订大额多年订单。他指出，微软（MSFT）、甲骨文（ORCL）、谷歌（GOOGL）和亚马逊（AMZN）合计订单积压的 50% 来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic。</p>
<p>“与此同时，超大规模云服务商正在对这些公司进行大量直接投资——随着这些投资价值的上升，将这些收益作为额外收入，” 他说。这是这些公司财报中的 “其他” 类别，解释了他们第一季度盈利意外的很大一部分。</p>
<p>只要超大规模云服务商继续在建设数据中心上投入更多资金，整个行业的收入将继续上升。“这在短期内是可以的——现在这些公司计划继续这样做，因此有充足的动力——但这使整个行业高度暴露于任何资本支出放缓的风险，” 他说。</p>
<p>而市场牛市支持者面临的问题是，这种资本支出减少可能与 Perkins 认为通常伴随市场见顶的两个经典标志相吻合；内部人士抛售和货币紧缩。</p>
<p>他回忆起互联网泡沫时期，当时一波 IPO 标志着 2000 年初泡沫的顶峰。“确实，许多研究表明内部人士抛售与互联网狂热结束之间存在因果关系，风险投资家和天使投资者利用 IPO 将他们的持股抛售给毫无防备的公众（在他们的强制 ‘锁定’ 期结束后），” Perkins 说。对于这个牛市，IPO 激增将很快包括 SpaceX（SPCX）、Anthropic 和 OpenAI。</p>
<p>Perkins 指出，货币政策收紧也是互联网泡沫破裂时的一个因素。通胀压力的上升使许多中央银行的立场发生了变化。预计日本银行和欧洲中央银行本月将加息，市场继续定价美联储下次行动也将是加息的可能性。</p>
<p>根据 Perkins 的说法，人工智能资本支出交易在其一侧有动力，但尚未做出足够的努力来证明今天的高期望。这使得市场在资产价格周期顶峰的两个标志即将来临时变得脆弱。</p>
<p>“这并不意味着市场崩盘即将来临，但至少应该引发对这次最新上涨的持久性的质疑，” Perkins 说。</p>
<p>市场</p>
<p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）大多下跌，因为国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 下滑。美元指数 DXY 下跌，油价期货（CL.1）下跌，黄金期货（GC00）交易约为每盎司 4,490 美元。</p>
<p>掌控你的新闻。将 MarketWatch 设为你在谷歌上的首选来源。</p>
<p>热点</p>
<p>S&amp;P 道琼斯指数决定不进行政策变更，这将允许 SpaceX（SPCX）和其他大型科技公司在首次公开募股后更快进入指数。</p>
<p>美国非农就业报告将在东部时间上午 8:30 发布。经济学家预计 5 月净增加 80,000 个职位，低于前一个月的 115,000 个。失业率预计保持在 4.3% 不变。</p>
<p>其他美国经济数据将在周五发布，包括下午 3:00 发布的 4 月消费者信贷数据。</p>
<p>韩国 Kospi 指数 KR:180721 在该国劳动部长呼吁主要科技公司（如三星（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660））分享利润后大幅下跌。</p>
<p>lululemon athletica（LULU）的股价下滑，因为管理层下调了该运动休闲品牌的全年展望。</p>
<p>网络最佳</p>
<p>他揭露了 DOGE 的内幕。然后他的刹车被切断。</p>
<p>美国高级官员关注政府在人工智能巨头中的股份。</p>
<p>Anthropic 呼吁全球暂停人工智能开发，警告 “自我改进” 风险。</p>
<p>图表</p>
<p>来源：花旗集团。</p>
<p>花旗集团策略师 Beata Manthey 表示，该行的熊市检查表显示 “过度兴奋正在加剧。” BMC 关注 18 个不同因素，包括股权估值、情绪、信用利差、收益率曲线、资金流动、企业基本面和融资活动，目前处于自全球金融危机以来的最高水平。但即使警示信号数量稳步上升，BMC 仍未发出过度兴奋的信号，她认为。“因此，我们目前对全球股票保持建设性看法，同时承认警告信号正在上升。”</p>
<p>热门股票</p>
<p>截至东部时间上午 6 点，MarketWatch 上最活跃的股票市场代码如下。</p>
<p>随机阅读</p>
<p>Timothee Chalamet，尼克斯球迷，为他的球队受苦。</p>
<p>谷歌为何计划释放数百万只蚊子。</p>
<p>服用 GLP-1 的美国人正以不断退货的方式压倒零售商。</p>
<p>新闻室之外</p>
<p>MarketWatch 精选：我 73 岁，储蓄了 71.7 万美元。我想改变一下现状。与一位前 50 名的财务顾问合作重要吗？</p>
<p>-杰米·奇斯霍姆</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>06-05-26 0640ET</p>

<p>TS Lombard 经济学家达里奥·帕金斯警告称，尽管受人工智能驱动的市场高点出现，但两个经典的市场顶部迹象正在显现：'资本支出回收'和即将到来的内部人士通过大型 IPO（如 Anthropic）进行的抛售。他认为，目前的收入依赖于超大规模企业相互投资的项目，这使得市场对资本支出放缓变得脆弱。此外，紧缩的货币政策与互联网泡沫时期的情况相似，这表明此次反弹可能缺乏持久性</p>

<p>By Jamie Chisholm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie Chisholm</p>
</div><p>The trend of 'capex recycling' is considered a problem by TS Lombard analyst</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TS Lombard 分析师认为 “资本支出回收” 的趋势是一个问题</p>
</div><p>A smartphone displaying the logo of the U.S. artificial intelligence safety and research company Anthropic. Anthropic's looming IPO may be another signal of a market top.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一部智能手机显示了美国人工智能安全与研究公司 Anthropic 的标志。Anthropic 即将进行的 IPO 可能是市场见顶的另一个信号。</p>
</div><p>Stocks hit another record high this week. There's been some sector rotation taking place in recent sessions, though it remains the case that much of the market's gains of late have been driven by optimism over artificial intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周股市再次创下新高。尽管最近几天出现了一些行业轮动，但市场近期的涨幅主要是由于对人工智能的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>Dario Perkins, economist at TS Lombard, says the bulls are premature in claiming they have won the AI capital expenditure debate, and besides, two looming factors suggest a market pullback is likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TS Lombard 经济学家 Dario Perkins 表示，牛市支持者在声称他们赢得了人工智能资本支出辩论时过于仓促，此外，还有两个即将到来的因素表明市场回调的可能性很大。</p>
</div><p>In an analysis published Thursday, Perkins notes that there was a time last year when investors began to worry about the sustainability of AI capex; asking whether the potential returns justify the vast expenditures. &#34;But today those worries have disappeared. With revenues and stock prices surging, the bulls are ready to declare victory,&#34; he says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周四发布的一份分析中，Perkins 指出，去年有一段时间，投资者开始担心人工智能资本支出的可持续性；他们在问潜在回报是否值得巨额支出。“但今天这些担忧已经消失。随着收入和股价飙升，牛市支持者准备宣布胜利，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>However, Perkins believes the debate about the sustainability of AI capex is far from settled. &#34;That's because most of what we are seeing - in terms of both revenues and the various bottlenecks across the tech ecosystem - is still the result of capex recycling,&#34; he says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Perkins 认为关于人工智能资本支出可持续性的辩论远未结束。“这是因为我们所看到的大部分情况——无论是收入还是技术生态系统中的各种瓶颈——仍然是资本支出回收的结果，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>For example, Perkins says that hyperscalers are booking large multi-year orders from companies that don't currently earn enough to meet those obligations. He notes that 50% of the combined orders backlog of Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Google (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) comes from OpenAI and Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Perkins 表示，超大规模云服务商正在向那些目前收入不足以满足这些义务的公司预订大额多年订单。他指出，微软（MSFT）、甲骨文（ORCL）、谷歌（GOOGL）和亚马逊（AMZN）合计订单积压的 50% 来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic。</p>
</div><p>&#34;At the same time, the hyperscalers are making large, direct investments in those same companies and - as the values of those investments rise -booking those gains as additional income,&#34; he says. This is the &#34;other&#34; category in those companies earnings statements, which explains a large portion of their first-quarter earnings surprise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与此同时，超大规模云服务商正在对这些公司进行大量直接投资——随着这些投资价值的上升，将这些收益作为额外收入，” 他说。这是这些公司财报中的 “其他” 类别，解释了他们第一季度盈利意外的很大一部分。</p>
</div><p>As long as the hyperscalers keep investing more funds in building data centers, revenue across the industry will continue to rise. &#34;That's fine in the short term - right now those companies plan to keep doing this, so there is plenty of momentum - but it leaves the entire industry highly exposed to any slowdown in capex,&#34; he says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要超大规模云服务商继续在建设数据中心上投入更多资金，整个行业的收入将继续上升。“这在短期内是可以的——现在这些公司计划继续这样做，因此有充足的动力——但这使整个行业高度暴露于任何资本支出放缓的风险，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>And a problem for market bulls is that such a capex reduction may coincide with two classic markers that Perkins believes usually accompany a market top; insider selling and monetary tightening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而市场牛市支持者面临的问题是，这种资本支出减少可能与 Perkins 认为通常伴随市场见顶的两个经典标志相吻合；内部人士抛售和货币紧缩。</p>
</div><p>He recalls the dot-com era, when a wave of IPOs marked the peak of the bubble in early 2000. &#34;Indeed, numerous studies have demonstrated a causal link between insider selling and the end of the dot-com mania, with venture capitalists and angel investors using the IPOs to dump their holdings on an unsuspecting public (once their obligatory 'lockup' periods expired),&#34; says Perkins. For this bull market, the IPO surge will soon feature SpaceX (SPCX), Anthropic and OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他回忆起互联网泡沫时期，当时一波 IPO 标志着 2000 年初泡沫的顶峰。“确实，许多研究表明内部人士抛售与互联网狂热结束之间存在因果关系，风险投资家和天使投资者利用 IPO 将他们的持股抛售给毫无防备的公众（在他们的强制 ‘锁定’ 期结束后），” Perkins 说。对于这个牛市，IPO 激增将很快包括 SpaceX（SPCX）、Anthropic 和 OpenAI。</p>
</div><p>Tighter monetary policy was also a factor around the deflating of the dot-com bubble, Perkins notes. An uptick in inflationary pressures have shifted the stance of many central banks. The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates this month, and markets continue to price in the probability that the next move by the Federal Reserve will be a rate hike, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Perkins 指出，货币政策收紧也是互联网泡沫破裂时的一个因素。通胀压力的上升使许多中央银行的立场发生了变化。预计日本银行和欧洲中央银行本月将加息，市场继续定价美联储下次行动也将是加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>The AI capex trade has momentum on its side, but it hasn't yet done enough to justify today's lofty expectations, according to Perkins. And that leaves the market vulnerable as the two markers of an asset-price cycle peak also loom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Perkins 的说法，人工智能资本支出交易在其一侧有动力，但尚未做出足够的努力来证明今天的高期望。这使得市场在资产价格周期顶峰的两个标志即将来临时变得脆弱。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That doesn't mean a market crash is imminent, but it should at least raise questions about the durability of this latest melt-up,&#34; Perkins says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这并不意味着市场崩盘即将来临，但至少应该引发对这次最新上涨的持久性的质疑，” Perkins 说。</p>
</div><p>The markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock-index futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are mostly lower as Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dip. The dollar index DXY is down, as oil futures (CL.1) dip and gold futures (GC00) trade around $4,490 an ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）大多下跌，因为国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 下滑。美元指数 DXY 下跌，油价期货（CL.1）下跌，黄金期货（GC00）交易约为每盎司 4,490 美元。</p>
</div><p>Take control of your news. Make MarketWatch your preferred source on Google.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>掌控你的新闻。将 MarketWatch 设为你在谷歌上的首选来源。</p>
</div><p>The buzz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热点</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has decided against policy changes that would have allowed SpaceX (SPCX) and other big technology companies to see quicker index entry after their initial public offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 道琼斯指数决定不进行政策变更，这将允许 SpaceX（SPCX）和其他大型科技公司在首次公开募股后更快进入指数。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists expect a net 80,000 positions were added in May, down from 115,00 the month before. The unemployment rate is expected to remain the same at 4.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国非农就业报告将在东部时间上午 8:30 发布。经济学家预计 5 月净增加 80,000 个职位，低于前一个月的 115,000 个。失业率预计保持在 4.3% 不变。</p>
</div><p>Other U.S. economic data due Frida include the April reading on consumer credit, published at 3:00 p.m.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他美国经济数据将在周五发布，包括下午 3:00 发布的 4 月消费者信贷数据。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's Kospi index KR:180721 fell sharply after the country's labor minister called on the country's major tech firms, such as Samsung (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660), to share the spoils of their profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韩国 Kospi 指数 KR:180721 在该国劳动部长呼吁主要科技公司（如三星（KR:005930）和 SK 海力士（KR:000660））分享利润后大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Shares of lululemon athletica (LULU) are sliding after management trimmed the athleisure group's full-year outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>lululemon athletica（LULU）的股价下滑，因为管理层下调了该运动休闲品牌的全年展望。</p>
</div><p>Best of the web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络最佳</p>
</div><p>He blew the whistle on DOGE. Then his brakes were cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他揭露了 DOGE 的内幕。然后他的刹车被切断。</p>
</div><p>Senior U.S. officials eye government shares in AI giants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国高级官员关注政府在人工智能巨头中的股份。</p>
</div><p>Anthropic urges global pause in AI development, flags 'self-improvement' risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Anthropic 呼吁全球暂停人工智能开发，警告 “自我改进” 风险。</p>
</div><p>The chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表</p>
</div><p>Source: Citigroup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：花旗集团。</p>
</div><p>Citigroup strategist Beata Manthey says that the bank's bear-market checklist shows &#34;exuberance is building.&#34; The BMC, which looks at 18 different factors including equity valuation, sentiment, credit spreads, yield curves, fund flows, corporate fundamentals and financing activity, is now at its highest level since the global financial crisis, But even with the number of flags rising steadily, the BMC is not yet signaling overexuberance, she thinks. &#34;We therefore remain constructive on global equities for now, while acknowledging that warning signs are rising.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>花旗集团策略师 Beata Manthey 表示，该行的熊市检查表显示 “过度兴奋正在加剧。” BMC 关注 18 个不同因素，包括股权估值、情绪、信用利差、收益率曲线、资金流动、企业基本面和融资活动，目前处于自全球金融危机以来的最高水平。但即使警示信号数量稳步上升，BMC 仍未发出过度兴奋的信号，她认为。“因此，我们目前对全球股票保持建设性看法，同时承认警告信号正在上升。”</p>
</div><p>Top tickers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热门股票</p>
</div><p>Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至东部时间上午 6 点，MarketWatch 上最活跃的股票市场代码如下。</p>
</div><p>Random reads</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随机阅读</p>
</div><p>Timothee Chalamet, Knicks fan, suffers for his team.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Timothee Chalamet，尼克斯球迷，为他的球队受苦。</p>
</div><p>Why Google plans on releasing mosquitoes by the millions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌为何计划释放数百万只蚊子。</p>
</div><p>Americans on GLP-1s are overwhelming retailers with their nonstop returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>服用 GLP-1 的美国人正以不断退货的方式压倒零售商。</p>
</div><p>Beyond the newsroom</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新闻室之外</p>
</div><p>MarketWatch Picks: I'm 73 with $717K saved. I want to change things up. Is it important that I work with a top-50 financial adviser?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketWatch 精选：我 73 岁，储蓄了 71.7 万美元。我想改变一下现状。与一位前 50 名的财务顾问合作重要吗？</p>
</div><p>-Jamie Chisholm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-杰米·奇斯霍姆</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>06-05-26 0640ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-05-26 0640ET</p>
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Bulls declare victory on AI, but two classic signs of a market top are looming

Dow Jones

微软

甲骨文

谷歌-A

亚马逊

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

三星电子

ORACLE CORP DEPOSITARY SH REP 1/2000TH PFD SER D

谷歌-C

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

多头宣称在人工智能领域取得胜利，但市场顶部的两个经典信号正在显现