<p>在过去的 50 年里，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 最具破坏性的回撤都是由单一主导风险驱动的。</p>
<p>1973 年，通货膨胀压垮了股票。1987 年，流动性蒸发。2000 年，科技投机崩溃。2008 年，信用市场冻结。每次危机都有其独特的催化剂、叙事和教训。</p>
<p>今天的市场环境之所以如此不同寻常，恰恰在于所有四种风险似乎同时闪烁。</p>
<p>人工智能的爆炸性反弹掩盖了这些潜在的脆弱性。如果没有人工智能，<strong>State Street SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> (NYSE: SPY) 可能会略低于 0，而不是年初至今约 10% 的涨幅。</p>
<p>少数几只大型科技股推动了市场的上涨，造成了投资者日益暴露的集中度。现在前 10 只股票大约占标普 500 指数市值的 40%，这是现代市场历史上最高的集中度之一。</p>
<p>结果是一个令人不安的局面，令人想起 1999 年底。多重风险同时积聚，而历史上为应对这些风险而建立的防御性企业却退居二线。</p>
<h3>2026 年的四骑士</h3>
<p>第一骑士是通货膨胀。</p>
<p>1973 年的石油冲击和通货膨胀激增引发了熊市，使标普 500 指数下跌了 43%。如今，通货膨胀风险依然存在，结构性商品超级周期与持续的能源供应不确定性相碰撞。再次出现通货膨胀冲击的潜力绝非微不足道。</p>
<p>第二骑士是流动性。</p>
<p>1987 年，投资组合保险和强制抛售造成了流动性真空，导致市场在短短几天内几乎崩溃 30%。</p>
<p>如今，资本在市场中转移，正经历自互联网时代以来最大规模的股权发行。像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOG) 这样的重量级公司开始依赖 资本筹集 来覆盖前所未有的人工智能资本支出竞赛。</p>
<p>流动性在许多方面就像氧气。看似丰富且被忽视，直到它消失的那一刻。然后，它瞬间成为首要问题。</p>
<p>第三骑士是科技投机。</p>
<p>互联网泡沫破灭使标普 500 指数下跌了约 47%，纳斯达克几乎下跌了 80%。虽然今天的人工智能领军企业在基本面上比 2000 年的许多互联网公司更强，但半导体股票的交易水平相对于其长期趋势而言，已达到数十年来的最高水平。</p>
<p><strong>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH) 今年迄今上涨约 60%。然而，在日线图上，它的交易价格约高于其 200 日移动平均线 50%。</p>
<p>第四骑士是信用。</p>
<p>全球金融危机导致信用市场冻结，造成约 55% 的回撤。今天的脆弱性不那么明显，但可能同样重要。主要的私人信贷基金已开始 放慢或限制赎回，引发了对金融系统表面下压力的担忧。</p>
<p>找到四种风险同时存在的时期是困难的。然而，这正是市场今天所处的状态。</p>
<h3>质量的回归</h3>
<p>当前局面更引人注目的是投资者选择忽视的内容。</p>
<p>历史上具有韧性的企业，如 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> (NYSE: BRK)、<strong>宝洁</strong> (NYSE: PG) 和 <strong>百事可乐</strong> (NYSE: PEP) 的交易价格相对于更广泛市场处于 多年相对低位。这些恰恰是能够在通货膨胀冲击、流动性危机、科技崩溃和信用收缩中生存下来的现金生成型企业。</p>
<p>与 1999 年 12 月的情况相似，难以忽视。在互联网泡沫的巅峰，巴伦周刊著名地发表了封面故事《怎么了，沃伦？》，投资者嘲笑 <strong>沃伦·巴菲特</strong> 错过了科技繁荣。伯克希尔哈撒韦表现不佳，而投机性科技股却飙升。</p>
<p>然后周期发生了转变。</p>
<p>纳斯达克崩溃，而伯克希尔和其他优质企业则大幅超越。</p>
<p>当前环境并非 1999 年；没有任何市场周期是完全相同的。但相似之处值得注意，因为投资者再次奖励兴奋而非韧性，动量而非耐久性。</p>
<p>如果通货膨胀、流动性、科技过剩和信用压力的四骑士继续共同推进，市场最终可能会重新发现质量的价值。当那时，今天的 “无聊” 公司可能会成为明天的避风港。历史往往会奖励那些产生现金、智能配置资本并在多种经济环境中生存的企业。</p>
<p>当这些企业被视为过时时，往往会出现代际机会——就在市场记起它们为何能持续生存的前夕。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

标普 500 指数

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>文章警告称，标普 500 指数面临来自通货膨胀、流动性压力、科技投机和信用担忧的多重风险，这与过去的危机相似。由于人工智能股票推动市场集中度达到历史高位，像伯克希尔哈撒韦这样的防御性 “优质” 公司被低估。作者暗示，历史可能重演，因为当这些综合风险显现时，投资者将焦点从投机性动能转向具有韧性和现金生成能力的企业</p>

<p>Over the past 50 years, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s most devastating drawdowns have each been driven by a single dominant risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 50 年里，<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 最具破坏性的回撤都是由单一主导风险驱动的。</p>
</div><p>Inflation crushed stocks in 1973. Liquidity evaporated in 1987. Technology speculation imploded in 2000. Credit markets froze in 2008. Each crisis had its own catalyst, its own narrative, and its own lessons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1973 年，通货膨胀压垮了股票。1987 年，流动性蒸发。2000 年，科技投机崩溃。2008 年，信用市场冻结。每次危机都有其独特的催化剂、叙事和教训。</p>
</div><p>What makes today's market environment so unusual is that, arguably, all four risks appear to be flashing simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的市场环境之所以如此不同寻常，恰恰在于所有四种风险似乎同时闪烁。</p>
</div><p>The explosive rally in artificial intelligence helped mask these vulnerabilities beneath the surface. Without AI, <strong>State Street SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> (NYSE: SPY) would likely be slightly below 0, not sitting at around a 10% gain year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能的爆炸性反弹掩盖了这些潜在的脆弱性。如果没有人工智能，<strong>State Street SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> (NYSE: SPY) 可能会略低于 0，而不是年初至今约 10% 的涨幅。</p>
</div><p>A handful of mega-cap technology stocks have driven market gains, creating a level of concentration that leaves investors increasingly exposed. The top 10 stocks now account for roughly 40% of the S&amp;P 500’s market capitalization, one of the highest concentration levels in modern market history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>少数几只大型科技股推动了市场的上涨，造成了投资者日益暴露的集中度。现在前 10 只股票大约占标普 500 指数市值的 40%，这是现代市场历史上最高的集中度之一。</p>
</div><p>The result is a setup that bears an uncomfortable resemblance to late 1999. Multiple risks are building simultaneously, while the defensive businesses historically built to withstand them have taken a back seat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是一个令人不安的局面，令人想起 1999 年底。多重风险同时积聚，而历史上为应对这些风险而建立的防御性企业却退居二线。</p>
</div><h3>The Four Horsemen of 2026</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2026 年的四骑士</h3>
</div><p>The first horseman is inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一骑士是通货膨胀。</p>
</div><p>An oil shock and an inflation surge triggered a bear market in 1973, pushing the S&amp;P 500 into a 43% drawdown. Today, the inflation risk lingers as a structural commodity supercycle collides with ongoing energy supply uncertainties. The potential for another inflationary shock remains far from negligible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1973 年的石油冲击和通货膨胀激增引发了熊市，使标普 500 指数下跌了 43%。如今，通货膨胀风险依然存在，结构性商品超级周期与持续的能源供应不确定性相碰撞。再次出现通货膨胀冲击的潜力绝非微不足道。</p>
</div><p>The second horseman is liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二骑士是流动性。</p>
</div><p>In 1987, portfolio insurance and forced selling created a liquidity vacuum that contributed to a near 30% market collapse in a matter of days</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1987 年，投资组合保险和强制抛售造成了流动性真空，导致市场在短短几天内几乎崩溃 30%。</p>
</div><p>Today, capital is shifting in the market by the largest wave of equity issuance since the dot-com era. Heavyweights like <strong>Alphabet</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOG) are starting to rely on capital raises to cover the unprecedented AI capex race.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，资本在市场中转移，正经历自互联网时代以来最大规模的股权发行。像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOG) 这样的重量级公司开始依赖 资本筹集 来覆盖前所未有的人工智能资本支出竞赛。</p>
</div><p>Liquidity, in many ways, is like oxygen. Seemingly abundant and overlooked, until the point it disappears. Then, it momentarily becomes the leading problem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性在许多方面就像氧气。看似丰富且被忽视，直到它消失的那一刻。然后，它瞬间成为首要问题。</p>
</div><p>The third horseman is technology speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三骑士是科技投机。</p>
</div><p>The dot-com bust erased roughly 47% from the S&amp;P 500 and nearly 80% from the Nasdaq. While today's AI leaders are fundamentally stronger than many internet companies of 2000, semiconductor stocks are trading at some of the most extended levels relative to their long-term trends in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>互联网泡沫破灭使标普 500 指数下跌了约 47%，纳斯达克几乎下跌了 80%。虽然今天的人工智能领军企业在基本面上比 2000 年的许多互联网公司更强，但半导体股票的交易水平相对于其长期趋势而言，已达到数十年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH) is up around 60% year-to-date. Yet, on the daily chart, it trades about 50% above its 200-day moving average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>VanEck Semiconductor ETF</strong> (NASDAQ: SMH) 今年迄今上涨约 60%。然而，在日线图上，它的交易价格约高于其 200 日移动平均线 50%。</p>
</div><p>The fourth horseman is credit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第四骑士是信用。</p>
</div><p>The Global Financial Crisis produced a roughly 55% drawdown as credit markets seized up. Today's vulnerabilities are less visible but may be no less important. Major private-credit funds have moved to slow or restrict redemptions, raising concerns about the stress beneath the surface of the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球金融危机导致信用市场冻结，造成约 55% 的回撤。今天的脆弱性不那么明显，但可能同样重要。主要的私人信贷基金已开始 放慢或限制赎回，引发了对金融系统表面下压力的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Finding a period when all four risks are present simultaneously is difficult. Yet that is arguably where markets stand today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>找到四种风险同时存在的时期是困难的。然而，这正是市场今天所处的状态。</p>
</div><h3>The Return Of Quality</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>质量的回归</h3>
</div><p>What makes the current setup even more striking is what investors have chosen to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前局面更引人注目的是投资者选择忽视的内容。</p>
</div><p>Historically resilient businesses such as <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> (NYSE: BRK), <strong>Procter &amp; Gamble</strong> (NYSE: PG), and <strong>PepsiCo</strong> (NYSE: PEP) are trading at multi-year relative lows compared with the broader market. These are precisely the types of cash-generative businesses that have survived inflation shocks, liquidity crises, technology busts, and credit contractions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上具有韧性的企业，如 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> (NYSE: BRK)、<strong>宝洁</strong> (NYSE: PG) 和 <strong>百事可乐</strong> (NYSE: PEP) 的交易价格相对于更广泛市场处于 多年相对低位。这些恰恰是能够在通货膨胀冲击、流动性危机、科技崩溃和信用收缩中生存下来的现金生成型企业。</p>
</div><p>The parallel to December 1999 is difficult to ignore. At the height of the internet bubble, Barron's famously published the cover story &#34;What's Wrong, Warren?&#34; as investors mocked <strong>Warren Buffett</strong> for missing the technology boom. Berkshire Hathaway underperformed badly while speculative technology stocks soared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 1999 年 12 月的情况相似，难以忽视。在互联网泡沫的巅峰，巴伦周刊著名地发表了封面故事《怎么了，沃伦？》，投资者嘲笑 <strong>沃伦·巴菲特</strong> 错过了科技繁荣。伯克希尔哈撒韦表现不佳，而投机性科技股却飙升。</p>
</div><p>Then the cycle turned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后周期发生了转变。</p>
</div><p>The Nasdaq collapsed while Berkshire and other quality businesses dramatically outperformed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克崩溃，而伯克希尔和其他优质企业则大幅超越。</p>
</div><p>The current environment is not 1999; no market cycle is ever the same. But parallels are noteworthy as investors are once again rewarding excitement over resilience and momentum over durability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前环境并非 1999 年；没有任何市场周期是完全相同的。但相似之处值得注意，因为投资者再次奖励兴奋而非韧性，动量而非耐久性。</p>
</div><p>If the four horsemen of inflation, liquidity, technology excess, and credit stress continue to advance together, the market may eventually rediscover the value of quality. When that happens, today's &#34;boring&#34; companies could become tomorrow's safe havens. History has a habit of rewarding businesses that generate cash, allocate capital intelligently, and endure through multiple economic regimes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果通货膨胀、流动性、科技过剩和信用压力的四骑士继续共同推进，市场最终可能会重新发现质量的价值。当那时，今天的 “无聊” 公司可能会成为明天的避风港。历史往往会奖励那些产生现金、智能配置资本并在多种经济环境中生存的企业。</p>
</div><p>Generational opportunities often emerge when those businesses are dismissed as obsolete—right before the market remembers why they kept surviving in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这些企业被视为过时时，往往会出现代际机会——就在市场记起它们为何能持续生存的前夕。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

The Four Horsemen Of The S&P 500 Are Arriving All At Once

- S&P 500 面临通胀、流动性、技术投机和信用四大风险。
- 当前市场依赖少数科技股，集中度达到历史高点。
- 传统优质企业的相对估值较低，可能成为未来的避风港。

标普 500 指数的四大骑士同时现身