<p>利率在短期内不太可能发生变化。但投资者已经开始为 2026 年秋季做好布局——截至目前，押注降息的做法至少可以说是逆势而为。不过，可能性并非为零。这不仅仅是因为美联储有了新领导人，还因为凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）暗示他可能会以新的方式解读数据，其中一些可能对降息更为有利。</p>
<p>这是另一个文章的话题。现在，考虑那些在利率下调时可能受益的股票，即使只是 25 或 50 个基点，也无妨。如果发生这种情况，一个值得关注的领域是住房股票——尤其是房屋建筑商。</p>
<h2>为什么住房市场的供应端比以往任何时候都更重要</h2>
<p>美国人口普查局的住房空置和房屋拥有率调查（HVS）显示，65 岁及以上的家庭在 2024 年第二季度的房屋拥有率为 78.6%，这意味着绝大多数老年人拥有自己的房屋，而不是租房。</p>
<p>尽管不断预测会出现大规模的婴儿潮一代抛售，但人口普查数据却讲述了一个不同的故事。仅有 10% 的婴儿潮一代计划在未来五年内出售房屋，低于 2024 年的 15%，而高达 61% 的人从未计划出售他们的房屋。一个关键原因是希望在原地养老。但还有其他因素，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>他们已经还清了抵押贷款（44%）。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>他们不想重新开始（36%）。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>他们计划将房屋作为遗产留给后代（34%）。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>他们担心无法负担新房（30%）。</li>
</ul>
<p>以上所有都是财务上合理的决策，这些人中有些人几十年前就还清了房屋贷款，几乎没有动力在今天的高利率市场中进行交易。对于这些房主来说，抵押贷款利率必须大幅下降，才能使得交易变得值得。</p>
<p>这意味着新建房屋是当前市场的焦点。以下是三家有能力填补这一空白的公司。</p>
<h2>DHI：入门级住房领导者有能力降低利率</h2>
<p>D.R. Horton NYSE: DHI 是美国最大的住宅建筑商，目前的交易市盈率约为 13.6 倍。这接近其历史平均水平，值得关注。在最新的财报中，DHI 报告的合并收入为 76 亿美元，净销售订单增长 11%，接近 25,000 套房屋。这一订单增长意味着需求依然存在，尽管由于激励措施和利率买断，利润率受到压力。</p>
<p>DHI 作为降息投资的特别之处在于其产品组合。</p>
<p>大约 65% 的抵押贷款成交是首次购房者，平均成交价格约低于美国新房平均价格的 30%。</p>
<p>这是对对抵押贷款利率最敏感的买家的战略性押注，他们在利率下降时最有可能迅速行动。</p>
<p>如果沃什给市场带来 25 个基点的利好，DHI 的入门级管道将比该行业几乎任何其他公司更快地吸收这一变化。</p>
<h2>LEN：轻资产并专注于长期战略</h2>
<p>Lennar NYSE: LEN 在 2026 年进入了战略转型的中期，2026 年第一季度的财报反映了这一转变，而不是反映基础业务。房屋销售收入同比下降 13%，至 63 亿美元，稀释后每股净收益为 93 美分。投资者对此并不满意——报告发布后，股价接近 52 周低点。</p>
<p>但这一局面比表面看起来更有趣。在运营方面，Lennar 将直接建筑成本同比削减了 7%，库存周转率提高至 2.5 倍，较去年 1.7 倍有所上升。这些数字表明该公司在市场转变前正在收紧开支。</p>
<p>再加上 21 亿美元的现金储备和仅 15.7% 的资本负债比率，Lennar 拥有足够的资产负债表来度过当前的利率环境，并在市场转变时抓住机会。LEN 的交易价格接近 90 美元，市盈率约为 13 倍，远低于其历史中位数。分析师对该股的共识目标价约为 100 美元。</p>
<h2>PHM：针对具有财务灵活性的买家</h2>
<p>PulteGroup NYSE: PHM 并不总是获得最高评价，但它无疑值得关注。当 DHI 追求交易量，LEN 追求规模时，Pulte 则追求产品组合——这一区别比以往任何时候都更为重要。在 2026 年第一季度的财报中，升级买家的净新订单增长了 3%，活跃的成年买家同比激增 14%。这些人口统计细分市场有资金可支配，并且如果利率变得稍微宽松，他们有动机去消费。</p>
<p>PHM 在季度末的现金余额为 18.4 亿美元，资本负债比率仅为 12.3%，是该行业中最干净的资产负债表之一。该公司还授权了一项新的 15 亿美元股票回购计划，表明管理层将当前估值视为机会。</p>
<p>管理层预计第二季度将是全年利润的最低点，预计毛利将在下半年恢复，因为更多的定制建房和活跃成年住宅交付。换句话说，PHM 现在可能处于最混乱的时刻，而历史上，这正是观察的最佳时机之一。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在 D.R. Horton 吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑 D.R. Horton 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师，以及他们每天向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐，现在就买入，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 D.R. Horton 并不在名单上。</p>
<p>虽然 D.R. Horton 目前在分析师中获得持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>查看这五只股票的详情</p>

普尔特房屋

莱纳房产-A

霍顿房屋

莱纳房产-B

<p>在持续高利率的背景下，“锁定效应” 限制了现有住房供应，因为老年人选择在原地居住。投资者正在为 2026 年秋季可能的降息做准备，重点关注三家房屋建筑商：D.R. Horton（DHI），专注于入门级市场；Lennar（LEN），加强资产负债表并削减成本；以及 PulteGroup（PHM），目标是财务灵活的升级购房者。如果抵押贷款利率下降，这些公司将受益</p>

<p>Interest rates aren't likely to change anytime soon. But investors are already trying to get positioned for fall 2026—and as of this writing, betting on a rate cut is contrarian to say the least. Still, the odds aren't zero. That's not simply because the Fed has a new leader. It's also because Kevin Warsh has signaled he may interpret the data in new ways, some of which could prove more favorable to a cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率在短期内不太可能发生变化。但投资者已经开始为 2026 年秋季做好布局——截至目前，押注降息的做法至少可以说是逆势而为。不过，可能性并非为零。这不仅仅是因为美联储有了新领导人，还因为凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）暗示他可能会以新的方式解读数据，其中一些可能对降息更为有利。</p>
</div><p>That's a topic for another article. For now, it can't hurt to consider stocks that are likely to benefit if rates move down, even by just 25 or 50 basis points. If that happens, one area to watch is housing stocks—and homebuilders in particular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是另一个文章的话题。现在，考虑那些在利率下调时可能受益的股票，即使只是 25 或 50 个基点，也无妨。如果发生这种情况，一个值得关注的领域是住房股票——尤其是房屋建筑商。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Supply Side of the Housing Market Matters More Than Ever</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么住房市场的供应端比以往任何时候都更重要</h2>
</div><p>The U.S. Census Bureau's Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey (HVS) shows households aged 65 and older posted a homeownership rate of 78.6% in the second quarter of 2024, meaning the overwhelming majority of seniors own their homes rather than rent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国人口普查局的住房空置和房屋拥有率调查（HVS）显示，65 岁及以上的家庭在 2024 年第二季度的房屋拥有率为 78.6%，这意味着绝大多数老年人拥有自己的房屋，而不是租房。</p>
</div><p>And despite constant predictions of a mass boomer sell-off, the census data tells a different story. Just 10% of boomers plan to sell within the next five years, down from 15% in 2024, and a whopping 61% never plan to sell their homes. A key reason is the desire to age in place. But, there are other factors, including:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管不断预测会出现大规模的婴儿潮一代抛售，但人口普查数据却讲述了一个不同的故事。仅有 10% 的婴儿潮一代计划在未来五年内出售房屋，低于 2024 年的 15%，而高达 61% 的人从未计划出售他们的房屋。一个关键原因是希望在原地养老。但还有其他因素，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>They’ve paid off their mortgages (44%).</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>他们已经还清了抵押贷款（44%）。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>They don’t want to start over (36%).</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>他们不想重新开始（36%）。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>They plan to leave homes as an inheritance (34%).</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>他们计划将房屋作为遗产留给后代（34%）。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>They are concerned they can't afford a new home (30%).</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>他们担心无法负担新房（30%）。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>All of the above are financially rational decisions made by people who, in some cases, paid off their homes decades ago and have little incentive to trade into today's high-rate market. For these homeowners, mortgage rates would have to go much lower to make the juice worth the squeeze.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以上所有都是财务上合理的决策，这些人中有些人几十年前就还清了房屋贷款，几乎没有动力在今天的高利率市场中进行交易。对于这些房主来说，抵押贷款利率必须大幅下降，才能使得交易变得值得。</p>
</div><p>That means new construction is the market right now. Here are three companies positioned to fill the gap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着新建房屋是当前市场的焦点。以下是三家有能力填补这一空白的公司。</p>
</div><h2>DHI: The Entry-Level Housing Leader Has Leverage to Lower Rates</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DHI：入门级住房领导者有能力降低利率</h2>
</div><p>D.R. Horton NYSE: DHI is the largest homebuilder in the country by volume, and right now it's trading at roughly 13.6x earnings. That's near its historic average and a signal worth paying attention to. In its latest earnings report, DHI posted $7.6 billion in consolidated revenues with net sales orders rising 11% to nearly 25,000 homes. That order growth means demand is alive, even if margins are under pressure from incentives and rate buydowns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>D.R. Horton NYSE: DHI 是美国最大的住宅建筑商，目前的交易市盈率约为 13.6 倍。这接近其历史平均水平，值得关注。在最新的财报中，DHI 报告的合并收入为 76 亿美元，净销售订单增长 11%，接近 25,000 套房屋。这一订单增长意味着需求依然存在，尽管由于激励措施和利率买断，利润率受到压力。</p>
</div><p>What makes DHI particularly interesting as a rate-cut play is its product mix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DHI 作为降息投资的特别之处在于其产品组合。</p>
</div><p>Roughly 65% of its mortgage closings go to first-time buyers, and the average closing price is approximately 30% below the U.S. new-home average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约 65% 的抵押贷款成交是首次购房者，平均成交价格约低于美国新房平均价格的 30%。</p>
</div><p>This is a strategic bet on the buyer who is most sensitive to mortgage rates and most likely to move quickly when rates dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是对对抵押贷款利率最敏感的买家的战略性押注，他们在利率下降时最有可能迅速行动。</p>
</div><p>If Warsh gives the market even a 25 basis point gift, DHI's entry-level pipeline is positioned to absorb it faster than almost anyone else in the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果沃什给市场带来 25 个基点的利好，DHI 的入门级管道将比该行业几乎任何其他公司更快地吸收这一变化。</p>
</div><h2>LEN: Asset-Light and Leaning Into the Long Game</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>LEN：轻资产并专注于长期战略</h2>
</div><p>Lennar NYSE: LEN came into 2026 in the middle of a strategic pivot, and the Q1 2026 earnings report reflected that transition more than it reflected the underlying business. Revenue from home sales declined 13% year-over-year to $6.3 billion, and net earnings per diluted share came in at 93 cents. Investors didn’t like that—shares traded near 52-week lows following the report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lennar NYSE: LEN 在 2026 年进入了战略转型的中期，2026 年第一季度的财报反映了这一转变，而不是反映基础业务。房屋销售收入同比下降 13%，至 63 亿美元，稀释后每股净收益为 93 美分。投资者对此并不满意——报告发布后，股价接近 52 周低点。</p>
</div><p>But the setup is more interesting than the headline suggests. Operationally, Lennar cut direct construction costs by 7% year over year and improved inventory turns to 2.5 times, up from 1.7 times a year ago. Those are the numbers of a company tightening up before an eventual market turn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一局面比表面看起来更有趣。在运营方面，Lennar 将直接建筑成本同比削减了 7%，库存周转率提高至 2.5 倍，较去年 1.7 倍有所上升。这些数字表明该公司在市场转变前正在收紧开支。</p>
</div><p>Add a $2.1 billion cash position and a debt-to-capital ratio of just 15.7%, and Lennar has the balance sheet to outlast the rate environment and capitalize when it shifts. LEN is trading near $90 and has a P/E around 13x—well below its historical median. Analysts have a consensus price target of around $100 on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上 21 亿美元的现金储备和仅 15.7% 的资本负债比率，Lennar 拥有足够的资产负债表来度过当前的利率环境，并在市场转变时抓住机会。LEN 的交易价格接近 90 美元，市盈率约为 13 倍，远低于其历史中位数。分析师对该股的共识目标价约为 100 美元。</p>
</div><h2>PHM: Targeting Buyers With the Financial Flexibility to Act</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PHM：针对具有财务灵活性的买家</h2>
</div><p>PulteGroup NYSE: PHMdoesn't always get top billing, but it arguably deserves it. While DHI chases volume and LEN chases scale, Pulte chases mix—a distinction that matters more than ever. In its Q1 2026 earnings report, net new orders among move-up buyers rose 3%, and active adult buyers surged 14% year over year. Those demographic segments have equity to spend and the motivation to spend it if rates become even marginally more accommodating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PulteGroup NYSE: PHM 并不总是获得最高评价，但它无疑值得关注。当 DHI 追求交易量，LEN 追求规模时，Pulte 则追求产品组合——这一区别比以往任何时候都更为重要。在 2026 年第一季度的财报中，升级买家的净新订单增长了 3%，活跃的成年买家同比激增 14%。这些人口统计细分市场有资金可支配，并且如果利率变得稍微宽松，他们有动机去消费。</p>
</div><p>PHM ended the quarter with $1.84 billion in cash and a debt-to-total capitalization ratio of just 12.3%, one of the cleanest balance sheets in the sector. The company also authorized a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program, a signal that management sees the current valuation as an opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PHM 在季度末的现金余额为 18.4 亿美元，资本负债比率仅为 12.3%，是该行业中最干净的资产负债表之一。该公司还授权了一项新的 15 亿美元股票回购计划，表明管理层将当前估值视为机会。</p>
</div><p>Management expects Q2 to represent the margin trough for the year, with gross margins guided to recover in the second half as more build-to-order and active adult homes close. In other words, PHM may be at its messiest right now, which, historically, has been one of the better times to look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层预计第二季度将是全年利润的最低点，预计毛利将在下半年恢复，因为更多的定制建房和活跃成年住宅交付。换句话说，PHM 现在可能处于最混乱的时刻，而历史上，这正是观察的最佳时机之一。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in D.R. Horton Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1,000 美元在 D.R. Horton 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider D.R. Horton, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑 D.R. Horton 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and D.R. Horton wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师，以及他们每天向客户推荐的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐，现在就买入，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 D.R. Horton 并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While D.R. Horton currently has a Hold rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 D.R. Horton 目前在分析师中获得持有评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看这五只股票的详情</p>
</div>

锁定效应确实存在——这三家房屋建筑商正在对此进行押注