<h2>关键要点</h2>
<ul>
<li>联合包裹正在接近一项长期转型努力的尾声。</li>
<li>公司告诉投资者，2026 年下半年将是复苏的开始。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票超过联合包裹 ›</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>联合包裹</strong>（NYSE: UPS）的股票自 2022 年初达到高点以来已下跌 50%。然而，该股票自 2025 年 10 月的低点以来上涨了 30%。市场开始相信公司的转型计划正在取得进展。如果你等太久再买，可能会错失投资机会。</p>
<h2>UPS 对第二季度的预期不高</h2>
<p>在 7 月 15 日之前购买 UPS，应该能在公司公布第二季度财报之前入场。这些财报预计不会太好。但这并不是重点。关键在于 UPS 一直告诉投资者，2026 年上半年将会疲软，下半年将会更强劲。</p>
<p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjM3NC8yNF8wM18yNS1hLXBlcnNvbi1zdGFuZGluZy13aXRoLWEtdS10dXJuLXNpZ24tb24tdGhlLWdyb3VuZC1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10aGVtLV9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMDU1OTI0ODkwLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjM3NC8yNF8wM18yNS1hLXBlcnNvbi1zdGFuZGluZy13aXRoLWEtdS10dXJuLXNpZ24tb24tdGhlLWdyb3VuZC1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10aGVtLV9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMDU1OTI0ODkwLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>换句话说，第二季度末将是一个拐点。这将是工业巨头的财务业绩开始转变的时刻。已经有重要的进展迹象，美国业务每件收入的稳定增长是公司早期转型成功的关键标志。</p>
<h2>不是一个好年头，但方向的重要变化</h2>
<p>公平地说，全年收入可能与 2025 年大致持平，收入和营业利润率几乎没有变化（尽管每件收入预计将持续上升，年末将达到中个位数）。然而，公司相信趋势将在上半年和下半年之间发生变化。</p>
<p>在 2026 年上半年，预计收入将下降，利润率仍将承压。但在下半年，预计收入将开始增长，利润率改善。公司在 4 月底公布 2026 年第一季度财报时并没有实质性改变其观点。实际上，首席执行官重申，转型努力仍在轨道上。我相信当公司公布第二季度财报时会有类似的积极更新。</p>
<h2>更激进的投资者应该考虑现在买入</h2>
<p>风险厌恶型投资者可能不想购买 UPS，因为它正在进行转型故事。然而，对于更激进的投资者来说，这一转型似乎即将结束。如果管理层的判断正确，业务复苏将在下半年到来。股票已经在上涨，但如果你在公司公布第二季度财报之前采取行动，你仍然可以在华尔街其他人意识到方向变化之前入场。</p>
<h2>你现在应该购买联合包裹的股票吗？</h2>
<p>在你购买联合包裹的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
<p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而联合包裹并不在其中。入选的 10 只股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
<p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 443,191 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,258,838 美元</strong>！*</p>
<p>现在，值得注意的是_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 941%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 206%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor_。</strong></p>
<p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
<p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 6 月 7 日。</em></p>
<p><em>Reuben Gregg Brewer 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 持有并推荐联合包裹的股票。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
<p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc.的观点。</p>

联合包裹

<p>这篇文章建议在 UPS 于 7 月 15 日发布第二季度财报之前购买其股票，认为该公司的长期转型努力即将完成。尽管预计第二季度的业绩将较弱，但管理层表示，增长的拐点将在 2026 年下半年出现。作者建议激进的投资者应立即入场，以便在更广泛的市场认可之前抓住预期的反弹机会</p>

<h2>Key Points</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键要点</h2>
</div><ul>
<li>United Parcel Service is nearing the end of a long turnaround effort.</li>
<li>The company is telling investors that the second half of 2026 will be the start of the upturn.</li>
<li>10 stocks we like better than United Parcel Service ›</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>联合包裹正在接近一项长期转型努力的尾声。</li>
<li>公司告诉投资者，2026 年下半年将是复苏的开始。</li>
<li>我们更看好的 10 只股票超过联合包裹 ›</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>United Parcel Service</strong>'s (NYSE: UPS) stock has fallen 50% since hitting a high in early 2022. The stock, however, is up 30% from its lows in Oct. 2025. The market is starting to believe the company's turnaround plan is gaining traction. If you wait too long to buy it, you may miss out on the investment opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>联合包裹</strong>（NYSE: UPS）的股票自 2022 年初达到高点以来已下跌 50%。然而，该股票自 2025 年 10 月的低点以来上涨了 30%。市场开始相信公司的转型计划正在取得进展。如果你等太久再买，可能会错失投资机会。</p>
</div><h2>UPS isn't expecting much from the second quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>UPS 对第二季度的预期不高</h2>
</div><p>Buying UPS before July 15 should get you in before the company reports second-quarter earnings. Those earnings aren't expected to be great reading. But that's not the point. The key here is that UPS has been telling investors that the first half of 2026 would be weak, with the second half coming in stronger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 7 月 15 日之前购买 UPS，应该能在公司公布第二季度财报之前入场。这些财报预计不会太好。但这并不是重点。关键在于 UPS 一直告诉投资者，2026 年上半年将会疲软，下半年将会更强劲。</p>
</div><p><em><strong>Will AI create the world's first trillionaire?</strong> Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an &#34;Indispensable Monopoly&#34; providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <strong>Continue »</strong></em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em><strong>人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？</strong> 我们的团队刚刚发布了一份关于一家鲜为人知的公司报告，该公司被称为 “不可或缺的垄断”，提供 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术。<strong>继续 »</strong></em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3MjM3NC8yNF8wM18yNS1hLXBlcnNvbi1zdGFuZGluZy13aXRoLWEtdS10dXJuLXNpZ24tb24tdGhlLWdyb3VuZC1pbi1mcm9udC1vZi10aGVtLV9nZXR0eWltYWdlcy0xMDU1OTI0ODkwLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F872374%2F24_03_25-a-person-standing-with-a-u-turn-sign-on-the-ground-in-front-of-them-_gettyimages-1055924890-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the end of the second quarter will be the inflection point. It will be the point in time when the industrial giant's financial results start to turn around. There are already important signs of progress, with a steady increase in revenue per piece in the U.S. business being a key sign of the company's early turnaround success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，第二季度末将是一个拐点。这将是工业巨头的财务业绩开始转变的时刻。已经有重要的进展迹象，美国业务每件收入的稳定增长是公司早期转型成功的关键标志。</p>
</div><h2>Not a great year, but an important change of direction</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不是一个好年头，但方向的重要变化</h2>
</div><p>To be fair, the full year is likely to be roughly flat with 2025, with revenue and operating margin barely budging (though revenue per piece is expected to keep rising, ending up mid-single digits for the year). However, the company believes the trends will shift between the first and second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，全年收入可能与 2025 年大致持平，收入和营业利润率几乎没有变化（尽管每件收入预计将持续上升，年末将达到中个位数）。然而，公司相信趋势将在上半年和下半年之间发生变化。</p>
</div><p>In the first half of 2026, revenues are expected to fall, with margins remaining under pressure. But in the second half, revenues are expected to start growing, with margins improving. The company didn't materially alter its view when it reported first-quarter 2026 earnings in late April. In fact, the CEO doubled down, telling investors that the turnaround effort was still on track. I believe there will be a similarly positive update when the company reports second-quarter earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年上半年，预计收入将下降，利润率仍将承压。但在下半年，预计收入将开始增长，利润率改善。公司在 4 月底公布 2026 年第一季度财报时并没有实质性改变其观点。实际上，首席执行官重申，转型努力仍在轨道上。我相信当公司公布第二季度财报时会有类似的积极更新。</p>
</div><h2>More aggressive investors should consider buying now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更激进的投资者应该考虑现在买入</h2>
</div><p>Risk-averse investors probably won't want to buy UPS, given the turnaround story it is working on. However, for more aggressive investors, that turnaround appears to be coming to an end. The business upturn will come, if management is correct, in the second half of the year. The stock is already moving higher, but if you act before the company reports second-quarter earnings, you can still get in before the rest of Wall Street catches on to the change in direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险厌恶型投资者可能不想购买 UPS，因为它正在进行转型故事。然而，对于更激进的投资者来说，这一转型似乎即将结束。如果管理层的判断正确，业务复苏将在下半年到来。股票已经在上涨，但如果你在公司公布第二季度财报之前采取行动，你仍然可以在华尔街其他人意识到方向变化之前入场。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy stock in United Parcel Service right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该购买联合包裹的股票吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you buy stock in United Parcel Service, consider this:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你购买联合包裹的股票之前，请考虑以下几点：</p>
</div><p>The <em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> analyst team just identified what they believe are the <strong>10 best stocks</strong> for investors to buy now… and United Parcel Service wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</em> 分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为的 <strong>10 只最佳股票</strong> 供投资者现在购买……而联合包裹并不在其中。入选的 10 只股票在未来几年可能会产生巨额回报。</p>
</div><p>Consider when <strong>Netflix</strong> made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $443,191</strong>!* Or when <strong>Nvidia</strong> made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, <strong>you’d have $1,258,838</strong>!*</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑一下 <strong>Netflix</strong> 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 443,191 美元</strong>！* 或者当 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日进入这个名单时……如果你在我们推荐时投资了 1000 美元，<strong>你将拥有 1,258,838 美元</strong>！*</p>
</div><p>Now, it’s worth noting <em>Stock Advisor’s</em> total average return is 941% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 206% for the S&amp;P 500. <strong>Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with <em>Stock Advisor</em>, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，值得注意的是_Stock Advisor_的总平均回报率为 941%——相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的回报率为 206%。<strong>不要错过最新的前 10 名单，加入由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区，获取_Stock Advisor_。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>See the 10 stocks »</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看这 10 只股票 »</strong></p>
</div><p><em>*Stock Advisor returns as of June 7, 2026.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>*Stock Advisor 的回报截至 2026 年 6 月 7 日。</em></p>
</div><p><em>Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>Reuben Gregg Brewer 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。Motley Fool 持有并推荐联合包裹的股票。Motley Fool 有披露政策。</em></p>
</div><p>The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此处表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，并不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc.的观点。</p>
</div>

我认为：在 7 月 15 日之前，联合包裹是一个值得买入的机会