<p>高盛发布了一份商品研究报告，更新了对中国基础材料和农业部门的盈利预测，以反映年初至今市场价格的变化。该行对商品价格预测进行了小幅调整，降低了钢铁、水泥、黄金和纸张行业的盈利预期，同时提高了铜和煤炭的预测。在投资策略方面，该行对煤炭和铜持更为积极的态度，而对铝和锂则保持谨慎。</p>
<p>在钢铁和水泥行业，高盛指出，尽管中国钢铁行业继续进行 “反内卷” 努力和长期产能削减计划，但预计到 2026 年产能和生产纪律的实施将被推迟，这意味着利润率可能会持续疲软。该行将马鞍山钢铁（00323.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测下调了 12%，至 40%，将其 H 股目标价从 2.5 港元下调至 2.2 港元，并维持中性评级。同时，预计鞍钢股份（00347.HK）的 2026 年亏损将从之前预测的 40 亿人民币扩大至 48 亿人民币，将其 H 股目标价从 1.2 港元下调至 1.15 港元，并维持卖出评级。</p>
<p>在水泥行业，由于建筑需求疲软，第二季度价格疲软，但预计随着中央政府加大基础设施融资支持，需求将在 2026 年下半年趋于稳定。该行将海螺水泥（00914.HK）、北新建材（02009.HK）、中国建材（03323.HK）和西部水泥（02233.HK）2026 年的盈利预测下调了 0% 至 9%。海螺水泥的 H 股目标价从 28 港元下调至 27 港元，维持买入评级。中国建材的买入评级和 6 港元目标价保持不变。北新建材的 H 股评级维持中性，目标价为 0.7 港元，而西部水泥的卖出评级和 1.1 港元目标价被重申。CR 建筑材料科技（01313.HK）维持中性评级，目标价为 1.3 港元。</p>
<p>关于煤炭，高盛预计基本面将保持积极，受到煤化工需求上升、进口减少和强季节性的支持。该行将 2026 年秦皇岛 5500 大卡动力煤的现货价格预测上调了每吨 70 元。因此，将中国神华（01088.HK）、中国煤炭（01898.HK）和兖矿能源（01171.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测上调了 9% 至 17%。兖矿能源的 H 股目标价从 12.5 港元上调至 15 港元；然而，其 A 股评级被下调至卖出，目标价从 16 元上调至 19 元。中国神华的 H 股目标价从 40 港元上调至 45 港元，维持中性评级，而中国煤炭的 H 股目标价从 16 港元上调至 18 港元，维持买入评级。</p>
<p>关于黄金，尽管高盛将 2026 年黄金价格预测下调了 5%，至每盎司 4809 美元，但其全球商品团队对黄金的结构性看涨态度依然不变。该行将招金矿业（01818.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测下调了 3%，并将其目标价从 43 港元下调至 42 港元，同时维持买入评级。紫金矿业（02899.HK）维持买入评级，目标价为 51 港元。</p>
<p>对于铜股，高盛将 MMG（01208.HK）的目标价从 13.5 港元上调至 14 港元，维持买入评级。该行对江西铜业（00358.HK）和中信矿业（03993.HK）维持买入评级，H 股目标价分别为 45 港元和 25 港元。</p>
<p>在铝方面，高盛预计新产能扩张将从 2026 年下半年开始加速，铝价差将逐渐正常化。该行将中国铝业（02600.HK）和中国宏桥（01378.HK）2026-2028 年的盈利预测下调了 0% 至 1%。中国铝业的 H 股目标价维持在 12.5 港元，重申中性评级，而中国宏桥的 H 股目标价维持在 34 港元，重申中性评级。</p>

海螺水泥

马钢股份

中国神华

马鞍山钢铁股份

中国神华(ADR)

紫金矿业

<p>高盛更新了对中国基础材料和农业部门的盈利预测，并调整了商品价格预测。它下调了对钢铁、水泥、黄金和纸张的预期，同时上调了对铜和煤炭的预期。该银行对煤炭和铜持积极态度，但对铝和锂持谨慎态度。包括马鞍山钢铁、海螺水泥、中国神华和紫金矿业在内的多家公司目标价格和评级也进行了调整</p>

<p>G Sachs published a commodities research report updating its earnings forecasts for China’s basic materials and agriculture sectors to reflect year-to-date changes in market prices. The bank made slight adjustments to its commodity price forecasts, lowering earnings estimates for the steel, cement, gold and paper sectors, while raising forecasts for copper and coal. In terms of investment strategy, it is more constructive on coal and copper, while maintaining a cautious stance on aluminum and lithium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛发布了一份商品研究报告，更新了对中国基础材料和农业部门的盈利预测，以反映年初至今市场价格的变化。该行对商品价格预测进行了小幅调整，降低了钢铁、水泥、黄金和纸张行业的盈利预期，同时提高了铜和煤炭的预测。在投资策略方面，该行对煤炭和铜持更为积极的态度，而对铝和锂则保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>For the steel and cement sectors, G Sachs noted that although China’s steel industry continues its “anti-involution” efforts and long-term capacity reduction plans, implementation of capacity and production discipline in 2026 is expected to be delayed, meaning weak profit margins may persist. The bank lowered MAANSHAN IRON (00323.HK) -0.020 (-1.093%)  Short selling $1.16M; Ratio 14.905%  ’s 2026 earnings forecast by 12% to 40%, cutting its H-share TP from HKD2.5 to HKD2.2 and maintaining a Neutral rating. It also expects ANGANG STEEL (00347.HK) -0.010 (-0.820%)  Short selling $914.36K; Ratio 20.541%  ’s 2026 loss to widen from the previously forecast RMB4 billion to RMB4.8 billion, lowering its H-share TP from HKD1.2 to HKD1.15 and maintaining a Sell rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在钢铁和水泥行业，高盛指出，尽管中国钢铁行业继续进行 “反内卷” 努力和长期产能削减计划，但预计到 2026 年产能和生产纪律的实施将被推迟，这意味着利润率可能会持续疲软。该行将马鞍山钢铁（00323.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测下调了 12%，至 40%，将其 H 股目标价从 2.5 港元下调至 2.2 港元，并维持中性评级。同时，预计鞍钢股份（00347.HK）的 2026 年亏损将从之前预测的 40 亿人民币扩大至 48 亿人民币，将其 H 股目标价从 1.2 港元下调至 1.15 港元，并维持卖出评级。</p>
</div><p>In the cement sector, pricing was soft in the second quarter due to weak construction demand, but demand is expected to stabilize in 2H26 as the central government steps up infrastructure financing support. The bank trimmed 2026 earnings forecasts for CONCH CEMENT (00914.HK) -0.360 (-1.977%)  Short selling $18.48M; Ratio 41.217%  , BBMG (02009.HK) 0.000 (0.000%)  Short selling $443.10K; Ratio 37.214%  , CNBM (03323.HK) +0.370 (+8.259%)  Short selling $53.04M; Ratio 22.876%  and WESTCHINACEMENT (02233.HK) -0.010 (-0.526%)  Short selling $1.70M; Ratio 3.472%  by 0% to 9%. CONCH CEMENT’s H-share TP was lowered from HKD28 to HKD27 with a Buy rating maintained. CNBM’s Buy rating and HKD6 TP were maintained. BBMG’s H-share rating was kept at Neutral with a TP of HKD0.7, while WESTCHINACEMENT’s Sell rating and HKD1.1 TP were reiterated. CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313.HK) +0.020 (+1.724%)  Short selling $1.68M; Ratio 19.302%  was reaffirmed at Neutral with a TP of HKD1.3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在水泥行业，由于建筑需求疲软，第二季度价格疲软，但预计随着中央政府加大基础设施融资支持，需求将在 2026 年下半年趋于稳定。该行将海螺水泥（00914.HK）、北新建材（02009.HK）、中国建材（03323.HK）和西部水泥（02233.HK）2026 年的盈利预测下调了 0% 至 9%。海螺水泥的 H 股目标价从 28 港元下调至 27 港元，维持买入评级。中国建材的买入评级和 6 港元目标价保持不变。北新建材的 H 股评级维持中性，目标价为 0.7 港元，而西部水泥的卖出评级和 1.1 港元目标价被重申。CR 建筑材料科技（01313.HK）维持中性评级，目标价为 1.3 港元。</p>
</div><p>On coal, G Sachs expects fundamentals to remain positive, supported by rising coal chemical demand, reduced imports and strong seasonality. It raised its 2026 spot price forecast for Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal by RMB70 per tonne. Accordingly, it lifted 2026 earnings forecasts for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) -0.620 (-1.333%)  Short selling $117.91M; Ratio 40.448%  , CHINA COAL (01898.HK) -0.300 (-2.344%)  Short selling $15.56M; Ratio 12.554%  and YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK) -0.660 (-4.314%)  Short selling $38.12M; Ratio 13.977%  by 9% to 17%. YANKUANG ENERGY’s H-share TP was increased from HKD12.5 to HKD15; however, its A-share rating for YANKUANG ENERGY (600188.SH) -0.430 (-1.706%)  was downgraded to Sell, with the TP raised from RMB16 to RMB19. CHINA SHENHUA’s H-share TP was raised from HKD40 to HKD45 with a Neutral rating, while CHINA COAL’s H-share TP was lifted from HKD16 to HKD18 with a Buy rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于煤炭，高盛预计基本面将保持积极，受到煤化工需求上升、进口减少和强季节性的支持。该行将 2026 年秦皇岛 5500 大卡动力煤的现货价格预测上调了每吨 70 元。因此，将中国神华（01088.HK）、中国煤炭（01898.HK）和兖矿能源（01171.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测上调了 9% 至 17%。兖矿能源的 H 股目标价从 12.5 港元上调至 15 港元；然而，其 A 股评级被下调至卖出，目标价从 16 元上调至 19 元。中国神华的 H 股目标价从 40 港元上调至 45 港元，维持中性评级，而中国煤炭的 H 股目标价从 16 港元上调至 18 港元，维持买入评级。</p>
</div><p>Regarding gold, although G Sachs cut its 2026 gold price forecast by 5% to USD4,809 per ounce, its global commodities team remains structurally bullish on gold. It lowered ZHAOJIN MINING (01818.HK) +0.020 (+0.105%)  Short selling $8.16M; Ratio 7.142%  ’s 2026 earnings forecast by 3% and reduced its TP from HKD43 to HKD42, while maintaining a Buy rating. ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK) -0.583 (-1.873%)  Short selling $118.15M; Ratio 11.076%  was reiterated at Buy with a TP of HKD51.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于黄金，尽管高盛将 2026 年黄金价格预测下调了 5%，至每盎司 4809 美元，但其全球商品团队对黄金的结构性看涨态度依然不变。该行将招金矿业（01818.HK）的 2026 年盈利预测下调了 3%，并将其目标价从 43 港元下调至 42 港元，同时维持买入评级。紫金矿业（02899.HK）维持买入评级，目标价为 51 港元。</p>
</div><p>For copper stocks, G Sachs raised MMG (01208.HK) -0.120 (-1.439%)  Short selling $32.09M; Ratio 14.560%  ’s TP from HKD13.5 to HKD14 with a Buy rating. It maintained Buy ratings on JIANGXI COPPER (00358.HK) -0.500 (-1.491%)  Short selling $12.89M; Ratio 10.000%  and CMOC (03993.HK) -0.420 (-2.479%)  Short selling $56.03M; Ratio 16.505%  , with H-share TPs of HKD45 and HKD25, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于铜股，高盛将 MMG（01208.HK）的目标价从 13.5 港元上调至 14 港元，维持买入评级。该行对江西铜业（00358.HK）和中信矿业（03993.HK）维持买入评级，H 股目标价分别为 45 港元和 25 港元。</p>
</div><p>In aluminum, G Sachs expects new capacity expansion to accelerate from 2H26 onward, with aluminum price spreads gradually normalizing. It slightly lowered 2026-2028 earnings forecasts for CHALCO (02600.HK) -0.190 (-1.877%)  Short selling $39.21M; Ratio 15.546%  and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK) -0.140 (-0.523%)  Short selling $117.46M; Ratio 23.265%  by 0% to 1%. CHALCO’s H-share TP was kept at HKD12.5 with a Neutral rating reiterated, while CHINAHONGQIAO’s H-share TP was maintained at HKD34 with a Neutral rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在铝方面，高盛预计新产能扩张将从 2026 年下半年开始加速，铝价差将逐渐正常化。该行将中国铝业（02600.HK）和中国宏桥（01378.HK）2026-2028 年的盈利预测下调了 0% 至 1%。中国铝业的 H 股目标价维持在 12.5 港元，重申中性评级，而中国宏桥的 H 股目标价维持在 34 港元，重申中性评级。</p>
</div>

G Sachs Adjusts Earnings Forecasts for China Commodities and Basic Materials Stocks, Raises TP for Coal Stocks

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鞍钢股份

金隅集团

中国建材

西部水泥

华润建材科技

中煤能源

兖矿能源

招金矿业

五矿资源

江西铜业股份

江西铜业

洛阳钼业

中国铝业

中国宏桥

CHINA NATIONAL BUILDING MATERIAL CO UNSP ADR EACH REPR 50 ORD

高盛调整了对中国大宗商品和基础材料股票的盈利预测，并上调了煤炭股票的目标价格