<p>TradingKey - 在 6 月 8 日的欧洲交易时段，黄金（XAUUSD）延续下行趋势，日内一度跌破 4300 美元，最低触及 4268.53 美元。技术分析显示，黄金价格进一步下行的空间已经打开，可能会下探至 4100 美元。</p>
<h2>为什么黄金价格暴跌？</h2>
<p>从基本面来看，导致黄金急剧下跌的催化剂是上周五（6 月 5 日）发布的美国 5 月非农就业数据。</p>
<p>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据，5 月份美国非农就业人数增加了 172,000，远超市场预期的约 85,000。失业率保持在 4.3%，而平均时薪环比上涨 0.3%，同比上涨 3.4%。更重要的是，3 月和 4 月的就业数据被向上修正，总共增加了 93,000，表明美国劳动力市场不仅仅是经历了单月反弹，而是整体韧性强于之前的预期。</p>
<p>强劲的就业数据意味着美联储没有立即转向宽松的必要；相反，市场开始重新押注年内加息的可能性。Trading Economics 指出，强劲的美国就业数据增强了市场对美联储今年可能加息的预期。目前市场预计 12 月加息的概率约为 70%，而在非农数据发布前约为 50%。这直接推高了实际利率预期，降低了黄金这种无收益资产在高利率环境下的吸引力。</p>
<p>与此同时，伊朗和以色列之间的敌对行动再度升级，导致油价飙升，进一步加大了黄金的下行压力。最新报道称，以色列和伊朗之间爆发了直接的军事冲突，双方对彼此的领土发起了导弹攻击，彻底打破了 4 月初脆弱的停火协议。</p>
<p>在这一消息发布后，油价随之上涨。WTI 原油（USOIL）在交易时段内上涨了 4.9%，最高触及 95.25 美元，而布伦特原油一度涨幅超过 5%，最高达到 98.08 美元。油价上涨通常会加剧通胀担忧；如果通胀重新抬头，美联储转向宽松的可能性将变得更加困难，甚至可能维持或进一步收紧政策，从而增加黄金的下行压力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/wti-6180bcba54294c249fd4ebbd62a8889f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/wti-6180bcba54294c249fd4ebbd62a8889f.png"/></p>
<p>WTI 日价格图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>此外，美元的走强加剧了黄金的下跌。市场数据显示，美元指数已突破 100 的心理关口。对于非美国投资者而言，持续强势的美元增加了以美元计价的黄金的投资成本，从而削弱了实物和投资需求。</p>
<h2>黄金价格会继续下跌吗？</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/gold-3e76abd7f0184e1bbdc6e170ff766b2f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/gold-3e76abd7f0184e1bbdc6e170ff766b2f.png"/></p>
<p>黄金价格日图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>根据日线图，黄金价格在上周五跌破关键支撑位 4360 美元，并在今天突破 4300 美元的心理关口。这显著增强了看跌动能，暗示未来可能进一步下跌。</p>
<p>目前，随着 4360 美元和 4300 美元支撑位的突破，进一步下行空间已经打开。黄金将首先测试 3 月份的低点 4100 美元；如果这一水平失守，可能会为 4000 美元的整数关口甚至 3900 美元铺平道路。</p>
<p>在上行方面，跌破 4360 美元已将该水平转变为重要的阻力区。黄金要重新获得上行动能，必须果断突破并维持在该水平之上，才能挑战 4520 美元的阻力。</p>
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纽蒙特矿业

中金黄金

<p>黄金价格暴跌至 4300 美元以下，最低触及 4268.53 美元，原因是美国非农就业数据强劲，降低了市场对美联储降息的预期，并增加了加息的可能性。此外，由于伊朗与以色列的紧张局势，油价上涨加剧了通胀担忧，而美元指数在 100 以上的强势进一步施压黄金。技术分析显示，黄金存在进一步下行风险，可能跌向 4100 美元</p>

<p>TradingKey - During the European session on June 8, gold ( XAUUSD) extended its downward trend, falling below $4,300 at one point during the day and hitting a low of $4,268.53. Technical analysis indicates that further downside room for gold prices has opened up, with a potential decline toward $4,100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在 6 月 8 日的欧洲交易时段，黄金（XAUUSD）延续下行趋势，日内一度跌破 4300 美元，最低触及 4268.53 美元。技术分析显示，黄金价格进一步下行的空间已经打开，可能会下探至 4100 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Why are gold prices plunging?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么黄金价格暴跌？</h2>
</div><p>From a fundamental perspective, the catalyst for this sharp drop in gold was the May non-farm payrolls data released by the U.S. last Friday (June 5).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从基本面来看，导致黄金急剧下跌的催化剂是上周五（6 月 5 日）发布的美国 5 月非农就业数据。</p>
</div><p>According to BLS data, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, significantly exceeding market expectations of approximately 85,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. More importantly, employment data for March and April were revised upward by a combined 93,000, indicating that the U.S. labor market is not merely experiencing a single-month rebound but possesses overall resilience stronger than previously anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据，5 月份美国非农就业人数增加了 172,000，远超市场预期的约 85,000。失业率保持在 4.3%，而平均时薪环比上涨 0.3%，同比上涨 3.4%。更重要的是，3 月和 4 月的就业数据被向上修正，总共增加了 93,000，表明美国劳动力市场不仅仅是经历了单月反弹，而是整体韧性强于之前的预期。</p>
</div><p>Robust employment figures imply that the Federal Reserve has no immediate need to pivot toward easing; instead, the market has begun re-betting on the possibility of a rate hike by year-end. Trading Economics noted that the strong U.S. jobs data reinforced market expectations for a potential Fed rate hike this year. Markets currently price in an approximately 70% probability of a rate hike in December, up from about 50% prior to the payrolls release. This directly pushed up real interest rate expectations, diminishing the appeal of gold, a non-yielding asset, in a high-rate environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强劲的就业数据意味着美联储没有立即转向宽松的必要；相反，市场开始重新押注年内加息的可能性。Trading Economics 指出，强劲的美国就业数据增强了市场对美联储今年可能加息的预期。目前市场预计 12 月加息的概率约为 70%，而在非农数据发布前约为 50%。这直接推高了实际利率预期，降低了黄金这种无收益资产在高利率环境下的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel led to another surge in oil prices, further increasing downward pressure on gold. The latest reports indicate a direct military conflict has erupted between Israel and Iran, with both sides launching missile strikes against each other's territories, completely shattering the fragile ceasefire agreement from early April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，伊朗和以色列之间的敌对行动再度升级，导致油价飙升，进一步加大了黄金的下行压力。最新报道称，以色列和伊朗之间爆发了直接的军事冲突，双方对彼此的领土发起了导弹攻击，彻底打破了 4 月初脆弱的停火协议。</p>
</div><p>Following the news, oil prices jumped accordingly. WTI crude ( USOIL) surged 4.9% during the session, reaching a high of $95.25, while Brent crude saw gains exceeding 5% at one point, hitting a high of $98.08. Rising oil prices typically intensify inflation concerns; if inflation resurfaces, it becomes harder for the Fed to pivot to easing, and it may even maintain or further tighten policy, thereby increasing downward pressure on gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一消息发布后，油价随之上涨。WTI 原油（USOIL）在交易时段内上涨了 4.9%，最高触及 95.25 美元，而布伦特原油一度涨幅超过 5%，最高达到 98.08 美元。油价上涨通常会加剧通胀担忧；如果通胀重新抬头，美联储转向宽松的可能性将变得更加困难，甚至可能维持或进一步收紧政策，从而增加黄金的下行压力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/wti-6180bcba54294c249fd4ebbd62a8889f.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/wti-6180bcba54294c249fd4ebbd62a8889f.png"/></p>
<p>WTI Daily Price Chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WTI 日价格图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, a strengthening U.S. dollar has exacerbated the decline in gold. Market data shows the U.S. Dollar Index has crossed above the 100 psychological level. For non-U.S. investors, a persistently strong dollar increases the investment cost of dollar-denominated gold, thereby weakening both physical and investment demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，美元的走强加剧了黄金的下跌。市场数据显示，美元指数已突破 100 的心理关口。对于非美国投资者而言，持续强势的美元增加了以美元计价的黄金的投资成本，从而削弱了实物和投资需求。</p>
</div><h2>Will gold prices continue to decline?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金价格会继续下跌吗？</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/gold-3e76abd7f0184e1bbdc6e170ff766b2f.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260608/gold-3e76abd7f0184e1bbdc6e170ff766b2f.png"/></p>
<p>Gold Price Daily Chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格日图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>According to the daily chart, gold prices broke below key support at $4,360 last Friday and subsequently breached the $4,300 psychological mark today. This has significantly bolstered bearish momentum, suggesting further declines ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据日线图，黄金价格在上周五跌破关键支撑位 4360 美元，并在今天突破 4300 美元的心理关口。这显著增强了看跌动能，暗示未来可能进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>Currently, with the breach of both the $4,360 and $4,300 support levels, further downside room has opened. Gold is set to first test the March low of $4,100; should this level fail, it could pave the way toward the $4,000 round-number mark or even $3,900.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，随着 4360 美元和 4300 美元支撑位的突破，进一步下行空间已经打开。黄金将首先测试 3 月份的低点 4100 美元；如果这一水平失守，可能会为 4000 美元的整数关口甚至 3900 美元铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>On the upside, the break below $4,360 has turned this level into a significant resistance zone. For gold to regain upward momentum, it must decisively break and hold above this level before it can challenge the $4,520 resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上行方面，跌破 4360 美元已将该水平转变为重要的阻力区。黄金要重新获得上行动能，必须果断突破并维持在该水平之上，才能挑战 4520 美元的阻力。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Why Is Gold Plunging? Gold Prices Fall Below $4,300, Strong Nonfarm Payrolls and Rising Oil Prices Open Downside Space

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为什么黄金价格暴跌？黄金价格跌破 4300 美元，强劲的非农就业数据和油价上涨为其下跌打开了空间