<p>周二，银价下跌，跌幅超过 4%，约为每盎司 65 美元，因为市场出现风险规避潮，交易员们加大了对美联储在年末再次加息的押注。</p>
<p>这一走势延续了近年来贵金属市场上最剧烈的反转之一。银价——由 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> 追踪——目前已从 2026 年 1 月底创下的 121.64 美元的历史高点下跌了约 47%。</p>
<p>该金属还跌破了 200 日移动平均线，这是自 2025 年 4 月以来首次出现这种情况。10 日相对强弱指数进一步下滑，处于超卖区域。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png"/></p>
<h2>美联储是催化剂</h2>
<p>银价近期下跌的原因是美联储政策的急剧重新定价。持续的高通胀数据和强于预期的劳动力市场推动市场走向更紧缩的政策，而非宽松。</p>
<p>美国的通胀率在 4 月份跃升至 3.8%，为近三年来的最高水平，经济学家预计消费者价格指数在 5 月份将出现 4.2% 的年增幅。</p>
<p>与此同时，劳动力市场意外向好。上个月非农就业人数增长了 172,000，远超 85,000 的预期，并且 3 月和 4 月的修正数据上调了 93,000。</p>
<p>CME FedWatch 目前将 2026 年 10 月会议加息 25 个基点的概率评估为 61%，将目标区间从当前的 3.50%-3.75% 上调至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
<p>到 2026 年 12 月的会议，25 个基点的加息几乎已完全被市场定价，概率约为 96%。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>特朗普的降息梦想遭遇阻碍：沃什可能被迫加息</strong></p>
<h2>阿尔的皱纹</h2>
<p>银价还受到本周科技股波动的影响。</p>
<p>投资者越来越将该金属视为人工智能建设的替代品，因为它在电子和电力基础设施中作为工业原料的作用。</p>
<p>周二，<strong>科技选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 下跌超过 3%，而 iShares 半导体行业 ETF 下跌 3.7%。</p>
<h2>22V 研究预计未来价格将下跌</h2>
<p><strong>约翰·罗克</strong>，22V 研究的技术分析师，对贵金属的损害是否已经结束表示怀疑。他指出，黄金和白银仍然发出未来将进一步下跌的信号。</p>
<p>首先，未能反弹的超卖资产往往会加剧自身的弱势。</p>
<p>其次，自 1 月份高峰以来形成的价格区间过于宽广，他将其比作深而难以穿越的峡谷，远远超出之前上升趋势所定义的狭窄、有序的区间。</p>
<p>第三，市场情绪看起来偏离：他说他现在收到的关于购买黄金和白银的问题比 2024-2025 年持续上涨期间还要多。</p>
<p>根据罗克的说法，这种组合是个问题。“持续的乐观情绪和恶化的动能状况，往往只有通过价格下跌才能解决，” 他在一封电子邮件中写道。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>美光、马维尔和 Arm 股票图表发出相同警告——其中一只仍然看起来便宜</strong></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

实物白银股票 ETF - ETFS

白银信托 ETF - iShares

SLVR

2 倍做空白银 ETF - ProShares

PSLV

2 倍做多白银 ETF - ProShares

<p>银价从 1 月份的记录中暴跌近 50%，这主要是由于因高通胀和强劲的劳动数据而激增的对美联储加息的押注。该金属在更广泛的风险规避情绪和科技股波动中跌破了其 200 日移动平均线。分析师警告称，动能恶化和持续的看涨情绪可能预示着价格进一步下跌</p>

<p>Silver prices fell Tuesday, sliding more than 4% to around $65 an ounce as a risk-off wave swept through markets and traders ramped up bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，银价下跌，跌幅超过 4%，约为每盎司 65 美元，因为市场出现风险规避潮，交易员们加大了对美联储在年末再次加息的押注。</p>
</div><p>The move extends one of the most violent reversals in the precious-metals complex in years. Silver – as tracked by the <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (NYSE: SLV) – has now collapsed roughly 47% from its record high of $121.64, set in late January 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一走势延续了近年来贵金属市场上最剧烈的反转之一。银价——由 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> 追踪——目前已从 2026 年 1 月底创下的 121.64 美元的历史高点下跌了约 47%。</p>
</div><p>The metal has also broken below its 200-day moving average, the first such breach since April 2025. The 10-day relative strength index is further falling in an oversold territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该金属还跌破了 200 日移动平均线，这是自 2025 年 4 月以来首次出现这种情况。10 日相对强弱指数进一步下滑，处于超卖区域。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/09133945/image-211-1024x809.png"/></p>
<h2>The Fed Is The Catalyst</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储是催化剂</h2>
</div><p>The driver behind silver’s recent drop has been a sharp repricing of Fed policy. A run of hot inflation prints and a stronger-than-expected labor market have pushed the market toward tighter policy, not easier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价近期下跌的原因是美联储政策的急剧重新定价。持续的高通胀数据和强于预期的劳动力市场推动市场走向更紧缩的政策，而非宽松。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. inflation rate jumped to 3.8% annually in April – the highest in nearly three years – with economists expecting the Consumer Price Index to print a 4.2% annual surge in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国的通胀率在 4 月份跃升至 3.8%，为近三年来的最高水平，经济学家预计消费者价格指数在 5 月份将出现 4.2% 的年增幅。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the job market surprised to the upside. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 172,000 last month, smashing estimates of 85,000 and following a 93,000 upward revision for March and April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，劳动力市场意外向好。上个月非农就业人数增长了 172,000，远超 85,000 的预期，并且 3 月和 4 月的修正数据上调了 93,000。</p>
</div><p>CME FedWatch now assigns a 61% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the October 2026 meeting, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00% from the current 3.50%-3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME FedWatch 目前将 2026 年 10 月会议加息 25 个基点的概率评估为 61%，将目标区间从当前的 3.50%-3.75% 上调至 3.75%-4.00%。</p>
</div><p>By the December 2026 meeting, a quarter-point hike is all but fully priced, at roughly 96%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2026 年 12 月的会议，25 个基点的加息几乎已完全被市场定价，概率约为 96%。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Trump's Rate-Cut Dream Hits A Wall: Warsh May Be Forced To Hike</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>特朗普的降息梦想遭遇阻碍：沃什可能被迫加息</strong></p>
</div><h2>The Al Wrinkle</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿尔的皱纹</h2>
</div><p>Silver also caught a downdraft from this week’s volatility in technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价还受到本周科技股波动的影响。</p>
</div><p>Investors have increasingly treated the metal as a proxy for the artificial-intelligence buildout, given its role as an industrial input across electronics and power infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者越来越将该金属视为人工智能建设的替代品，因为它在电子和电力基础设施中作为工业原料的作用。</p>
</div><p>On Tuesday, the <strong>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund</strong> (NYSE: XLK) sunk over 3%, while the iShares Semiconductor Sector ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) fell 3.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，<strong>科技选择行业 SPDR 基金</strong> 下跌超过 3%，而 iShares 半导体行业 ETF 下跌 3.7%。</p>
</div><h2>22V Research Sees Lower Prices Ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>22V 研究预计未来价格将下跌</h2>
</div><p><strong>John Roque</strong>, technical analyst at 22V Research, is unconvinced the damage in precious metals is done. He indicated that both gold and silver continue to signal lower levels ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>约翰·罗克</strong>，22V 研究的技术分析师，对贵金属的损害是否已经结束表示怀疑。他指出，黄金和白银仍然发出未来将进一步下跌的信号。</p>
</div><p>First, oversold assets that fail to rally tend to reinforce their own weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，未能反弹的超卖资产往往会加剧自身的弱势。</p>
</div><p>Second, the price ranges carved out since the January peaks are far too wide, so wide he likens them to deep, hard-to-navigate chasms, well beyond the narrow, orderly ranges that defined the prior uptrend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，自 1 月份高峰以来形成的价格区间过于宽广，他将其比作深而难以穿越的峡谷，远远超出之前上升趋势所定义的狭窄、有序的区间。</p>
</div><p>Third, sentiment looks offside: he says he is fielding more questions about buying gold and silver now than he did during the sustained 2024-2025 rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，市场情绪看起来偏离：他说他现在收到的关于购买黄金和白银的问题比 2024-2025 年持续上涨期间还要多。</p>
</div><p>Per Roque, that combination is the problem. “Continued bullish sentiment and deteriorating momentum conditions is, quite often, a situation that is only solved by lower prices,” he wrote in an emailed note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据罗克的说法，这种组合是个问题。“持续的乐观情绪和恶化的动能状况，往往只有通过价格下跌才能解决，” 他在一封电子邮件中写道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read Also:</strong>
<strong>Micron, Marvell and Arm Stock Charts Flash The Same Warning — One Still Looks Cheap</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：</strong>
<strong>美光、马维尔和 Arm 股票图表发出相同警告——其中一只仍然看起来便宜</strong></p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Wall Street's 2025 Favorite Trade Has Fallen Nearly 50% From Records: Is This A Buy Window?

benzinga_article

WisdomTree Silver

Sprott PHYs Silver

高科技指数 ETF - SPDR

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

美光科技

迈威尔科技

华尔街 2025 年的热门交易已从历史高点下跌近 50%：这是否是一个买入的机会？