<p>Lekker Capital 的 <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> 建议在夏季避免投资加密货币，并在第三季度末再回归，理由是创纪录的 IPO 供应、流动性减弱以及 <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) 和 <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR) 的未解决问题。</p>
<h3>三个逆风使得夏季加密货币投资风险加大</h3>
<p>Thompson 的看跌观点基于三种 重叠 的压力同时出现。</p>
<p>SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在共同为市场带来超过 3 万亿美元的新 IPO 供应，直接与现有科技公司争夺资本。</p>
<p>历史上引领牛市的 Mag7 股票表现滞后，而纳斯达克的其他股票则在支撑指数，Thompson 将这种模式描述为经典的晚周期行为。</p>
<p>与此同时，STRC 正在接近自推出以来的最严重回撤，Thompson 预计 Strategy 将把股息提高 50 个基点，而不是通常的 25 个基点，这将增加其现金负担。</p>
<p>“我的建议是夏季避免加密市场，因为即使没有严重的逆风，它在接下来的几个月里也往往会挣扎，” Thompson 写道。“在第三季度末再重新关注。”</p>
<h3>威胁整个科技行业的超大规模公司囚徒困境</h3>
<p>Thompson 指出了他所称的主要云公司面临的囚徒困境。如果他们继续在 AI 基础设施上花费，现金流和回购将下降，股票表现滞后。</p>
<p>如果他们削减支出以恢复资产负债表，半导体和 AI 供应链公司将崩溃，导致更广泛的科技指数下跌。</p>
<p>无论哪条路径都将导致科技价格下跌，从而减少原本会流入 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 和加密货币的资本。</p>
<p>Thompson 指出，已有超过 140 个活动组织在 24 个州阻止了超过 640 亿美元的数据中心开发。</p>
<p>他还提到 <strong>Trump</strong> 之前曾表示科技公司应该为自己的电力成本买单，他预计这一信息将在中期选举前再次出现。</p>
<h3>为什么日本和日本央行本月值得关注</h3>
<p>Thompson 提出了一个额外的风险。美元兑日元接近近 50 年来的第四高周收盘价，而日本央行会议定于 6 月 FOMC 之前的前一天召开。</p>
<p>如果日本不利用这个窗口来加强日元，Thompson 预计将突破 160，这将是日本政策制定者强烈希望避免的，并可能同时引发所有风险资产的波动。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

STRC

STRF

MSTR

<p>Lekker Capital 的 Quinn Thompson 建议在夏季避免投资比特币、以太坊和 XRP 等加密资产，推荐在第三季度末再考虑回归。这一看跌立场主要受到三个因素的驱动：主要科技公司创纪录的 IPO 供应竞争资本、流动性减弱，以及 Strategy (MSTR) 和 Bitmine (BMNR) 尚未解决的财务问题。此外，AI 基础设施支出的 “囚徒困境” 威胁着科技股，而日本银行可能对美元/日元汇率的干预则给风险资产带来了进一步的宏观经济风险</p>

<p>Lekker Capital’s <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> advocates avoiding crypto for the summer and return in late Q3, citing record IPO supply, waning liquidity, and unresolved problems at <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) and <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lekker Capital 的 <strong>Quinn Thompson</strong> 建议在夏季避免投资加密货币，并在第三季度末再回归，理由是创纪录的 IPO 供应、流动性减弱以及 <strong>Strategy</strong> (NASDAQ: MSTR) 和 <strong>Bitmine</strong> (NASDAQ: BMNR) 的未解决问题。</p>
</div><h3>Three Headwinds Making Summer Crypto Dangerous Right Now</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>三个逆风使得夏季加密货币投资风险加大</h3>
</div><p>Thompson’s bearish case rests on three overlapping pressures hitting simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 的看跌观点基于三种 重叠 的压力同时出现。</p>
</div><p>SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are collectively bringing more than $3 trillion in new IPO supply to market, competing directly with existing tech names for capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SpaceX、Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在共同为市场带来超过 3 万亿美元的新 IPO 供应，直接与现有科技公司争夺资本。</p>
</div><p>The Mag7 stocks that historically lead bull markets are lagging while the rest of the Nasdaq carries the index, a pattern Thompson describes as classic late-cycle behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上引领牛市的 Mag7 股票表现滞后，而纳斯达克的其他股票则在支撑指数，Thompson 将这种模式描述为经典的晚周期行为。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, STRC is approaching one of its worst drawdowns since launch, and Thompson expects Strategy to raise its dividend by 50 basis points rather than the usual 25, adding to its cash obligations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，STRC 正在接近自推出以来的最严重回撤，Thompson 预计 Strategy 将把股息提高 50 个基点，而不是通常的 25 个基点，这将增加其现金负担。</p>
</div><p>“My recommendation is to avoid the crypto market for the summer as it tends to struggle during the coming months even when there isn’t a barrage of severe headwinds in its way,” Thompson wrote. “Pick it back up in late Q3.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我的建议是夏季避免加密市场，因为即使没有严重的逆风，它在接下来的几个月里也往往会挣扎，” Thompson 写道。“在第三季度末再重新关注。”</p>
</div><h3>The Hyperscaler Prisoner’s Dilemma That Threatens The Entire Tech Complex</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>威胁整个科技行业的超大规模公司囚徒困境</h3>
</div><p>Thompson identified what he calls a prisoner’s dilemma facing major cloud companies. If they keep spending on AI infrastructure, free cash flow and buybacks decline and their equities lag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 指出了他所称的主要云公司面临的囚徒困境。如果他们继续在 AI 基础设施上花费，现金流和回购将下降，股票表现滞后。</p>
</div><p>If they cut spending to restore balance sheets, semiconductor and AI supply chain names crash, taking the broader tech index down with them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果他们削减支出以恢复资产负债表，半导体和 AI 供应链公司将崩溃，导致更广泛的科技指数下跌。</p>
</div><p>Either path leads to lower tech prices, which removes capital that would otherwise flow into <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) and crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论哪条路径都将导致科技价格下跌，从而减少原本会流入 <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 和加密货币的资本。</p>
</div><p>Thompson pointed to 140-plus activist groups across 24 states already blocking over $64 billion in data center development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 指出，已有超过 140 个活动组织在 24 个州阻止了超过 640 亿美元的数据中心开发。</p>
</div><p>He also noted <strong>Trump</strong> previously signaled tech companies should pay for their own power costs, a message he expects to return ahead of midterms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还提到 <strong>Trump</strong> 之前曾表示科技公司应该为自己的电力成本买单，他预计这一信息将在中期选举前再次出现。</p>
</div><h3>Why Japan And The BOJ Deserve Attention This Month</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>为什么日本和日本央行本月值得关注</h3>
</div><p>Thompson flagged one additional risk. USDJPY is approaching its fourth highest weekly close in nearly 50 years, with a Bank of Japan meeting scheduled the day before the June FOMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thompson 提出了一个额外的风险。美元兑日元接近近 50 年来的第四高周收盘价，而日本央行会议定于 6 月 FOMC 之前的前一天召开。</p>
</div><p>If Japan does not use that window to strengthen the yen, Thompson expects a breakout above 160, which Japanese policymakers will strongly want to avoid and which could trigger volatility across all risk assets at once.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日本不利用这个窗口来加强日元，Thompson 预计将突破 160，这将是日本政策制定者强烈希望避免的，并可能同时引发所有风险资产的波动。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

'Avoid Crypto For The Summer': This Analyst Says Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Are No Good For Now

benzinga_article

Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 10.0 Perp

Strategy

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 8.0 Perp

BitMine Immersion Tech

2 倍做空 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

21Shares Ethereum ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做空 MSTR ETF - Defiance

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Leverage Shares 2X Long BMNR Daily ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

VanEck Ethereum ETF

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale XRP Trust ETF

Canary XRP ETF

T-REX 2X Long BMNR Daily Target ETF

MSTR 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Staking ETF

Defiance Leveraged Long + Inc MSTR ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise XRP ETF

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

Franklin XRP ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - Defiance

Franklin Ethereum ETF

REX-Osprey XRP ETF

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - T-Rex

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博时比特币

华夏比特币

MBC比特币

Bitwise MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF

GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF

YieldMax MSTR Perf & Dis Trgt 25 ETF

YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF

GraniteShares YieldBoost MSTR ETF

OpenAI

纳斯达克综合指数

BITMINE IMMERSION TECNOLOGIES INC

“夏季避开加密货币”：这位分析师称，比特币、以太坊和 XRP 目前不值得投资