<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>美联储的鹰派重新定价、美元走强、美伊紧张局势以及中国需求减弱都对商品价格造成了冲击，导致大型矿业公司平均下跌约 10%。</li>
<li>黄金已经抹去了年初的辉煌开局。在一月份飙升近 30% 后，目前年初至今下跌约 5%，经历了 9.2% 的六天滑落。</li>
<li>结构性顺风仍然存在。人工智能驱动的资本支出、国防开支上升以及缺乏新供应都支持需求，尽管目前波动性极大。</li>
</ul>
<p>谈谈这个转折。S&amp;P/ASX 200 材料指数从 6 月 3 日的历史高点，经历了五天的下滑，损失高达 11%，其中黄金、铀和锂矿的跌幅更为明显。</p>
<p>商品价格（不包括能源）在过去一夜继续下跌，大多数商品在过去六个交易日中录得大幅下跌。像黄金这样的高飞商品，在年初的前四周上涨近 30%，现在年初至今下跌约 5%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>商品</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>6 天 %</th>
<th>收盘价 (美元)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>黄金</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铂金</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>白银</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铜</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>锌</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>镍</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>钯金</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铝</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铁矿石期货</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>来源：市场指数</p>
<p>黄金价格图表（来源：TradingView）</p>
<p>今天的抛售似乎已经减弱，材料指数从 2.7% 的低点反弹，目前仅下跌 0.50%。大多数商品价格在周四也开始反弹，黄金上涨 1.0%，铜上涨 0.85%。</p>
<p>是什么导致商品价格下跌</p>
<p>商品抛售是由多种因素驱动的，包括：</p>
<ul>
<li>美联储的加息预期转为鹰派，周四的 5 月核心 CPI 同比增长 2.9%（自 9 月 25 日以来最高），整体 CPI 为 4.2%（自 4 月 23 日以来最高），市场现在预计到 12 月将加息 25 个基点，甚至可能有两次加息，这对无收益的美元计价商品显然是负面影响。</li>
<li>由于鹰派利率重新定价，美元走强，美元指数接近 100 水平。该指数在过去一年中大多横盘交易，主要在 96 到 100 之间，尽管近期的上行压力影响了商品价格。</li>
<li>美伊紧张局势导致风险规避流动，而非商品需求，随着美国在霍尔木兹海峡附近进行第二天的空袭，伊朗对四个美国基地的报复打击影响了全球股市。</li>
<li>中国需求背景正在减弱，5 月 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，低于 1.3% 的预期，核心 CPI 降至 1.1%，而 PPI 因进口能源成本达到四年来的高点 3.9%，这种滞涨的组合削弱了全球最大金属消费国的牛市前景。</li>
</ul>
<p>矿业公司一览</p>
<p>大多数大型公司今天早盘开盘大幅下跌，但在下午交易中开始反弹。平均矿业公司本周下跌约 10%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:50</p>
<p>大多数黄金公司也开始从盘中低点反弹。以下列表显示了按市值计算的十家最大的黄金矿业公司，过去一周平均下跌 12.9%，年初至今下跌 23.6%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:52</p>
<p>高飞的锂行业也经历了明显的回调，尽管大多数大型公司（PLS，MIN）仍保持健康的年初至今收益。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:54</p>
<p>接下来会怎样？</p>
<p>商品处于一个尴尬的境地。本周抛售的短期催化剂（鹰派美联储重新定价、美元走强、美伊紧张局势和中国需求减弱）都朝着同一个方向发展，而这个方向是下行。</p>
<p>然而，更大的图景保持不变，人工智能驱动的资本支出、国防开支上升以及更加分裂的地缘政治背景等因素都在推动结构性需求，而没有显著的供应响应来满足这种需求。</p>
<p>去年底，摩根士丹利指出，铜市场正面临超过二十年来最大的缺口，约为 59 万吨，到 2029 年将扩大至 110 万吨。由于新供应几乎没有上线，这种局面显得相当不对称。尽管如此，铜仍然是铜。它对全球工业活动的起伏、美元的走势以及情绪的变化极为敏感。这可能就是为什么我们看到这种金属在上周创下历史新高后，仅仅六天后就回落了约 7%。</p>
<p>整体情况看起来是看涨的，但由于全球股市的急剧回调、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及通胀压力的影响，目前的波动性非常非常高。</p>

美国雅宝公司

黄金 MiniShares 信托 - SPDR

广发中证稀有金属ETF

<p>ASX 200 材料指数在五天内暴跌 11%，原因是美联储的鹰派重新定价、美元走强、美伊紧张局势以及中国需求减弱。黄金抹去了 1 月的涨幅，而铜和锂等其他商品也出现下滑。尽管出现了剧烈的抛售，但人工智能资本支出和国防开支等结构性需求驱动因素依然存在，尽管预计短期内波动性仍将保持在高位</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>A hawkish Fed repricing, firmer US dollar, US-Iran tensions and softening Chinese demand have hit commodity prices, dragging the average large cap miner down roughly 10% this week.</li>
<li>Gold has erased its stellar start to the year. After surging almost 30% in January, it now sits down around 5% year-to-date following a 9.2% six-day slide.</li>
<li>Structural tailwinds remain intact. AI-driven capex, rising defence spending and a lack of new supply all support demand, though volatility is extreme for now.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储的鹰派重新定价、美元走强、美伊紧张局势以及中国需求减弱都对商品价格造成了冲击，导致大型矿业公司平均下跌约 10%。</li>
<li>黄金已经抹去了年初的辉煌开局。在一月份飙升近 30% 后，目前年初至今下跌约 5%，经历了 9.2% 的六天滑落。</li>
<li>结构性顺风仍然存在。人工智能驱动的资本支出、国防开支上升以及缺乏新供应都支持需求，尽管目前波动性极大。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Talk about a U-turn. The S&amp;P/ASX 200 Materials Index went from all-time highs on 3 June, to a five-day skid that wiped out as much as 11%, with more pronounced declines for gold, uranium and lithium miners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈谈这个转折。S&amp;P/ASX 200 材料指数从 6 月 3 日的历史高点，经历了五天的下滑，损失高达 11%，其中黄金、铀和锂矿的跌幅更为明显。</p>
</div><p>Commodity prices (ex-energy) continued to sell off overnight, with most recording sharp declines over the last six sessions. A high-flying commodity like gold, which was up almost 30% in the first four weeks of the year, is now down around 5% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品价格（不包括能源）在过去一夜继续下跌，大多数商品在过去六个交易日中录得大幅下跌。像黄金这样的高飞商品，在年初的前四周上涨近 30%，现在年初至今下跌约 5%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Commodity</th>
<th>Chg %</th>
<th>6 Days %</th>
<th>Close (US$)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Platinum</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Copper</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Zinc</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nickel</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Palladium</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aluminium</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iron ore futures</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>商品</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>6 天 %</th>
<th>收盘价 (美元)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>黄金</td>
<td>-4.45%</td>
<td>-9.20%</td>
<td>$4,071</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铂金</td>
<td>-3.66%</td>
<td>-14.10%</td>
<td>$1,663</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>白银</td>
<td>-2.97%</td>
<td>-15.70%</td>
<td>$63.37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铜</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$6.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>锌</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-4.60%</td>
<td>$3,439</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>镍</td>
<td>-1.48%</td>
<td>-7.70%</td>
<td>$17,651</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>钯金</td>
<td>-1.10%</td>
<td>-11.20%</td>
<td>$1,214</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铝</td>
<td>-1.02%</td>
<td>-7.00%</td>
<td>$3,484</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>铁矿石期货</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
<td>-3.50%</td>
<td>$101.85</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Source: Market Index</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：市场指数</p>
</div><p>Gold price chart (Source: TradingView)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格图表（来源：TradingView）</p>
</div><p>The selling appears to have subsided today, with the Materials Index bouncing off session lows of 2.7%, currently down just 0.50%. Most commodity prices have also started to bounce on Thursday, with gold up 1.0% and copper up 0.85% at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的抛售似乎已经减弱，材料指数从 2.7% 的低点反弹，目前仅下跌 0.50%。大多数商品价格在周四也开始反弹，黄金上涨 1.0%，铜上涨 0.85%。</p>
</div><p>What's driving commodities lower</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是什么导致商品价格下跌</p>
</div><p>The commodities selloff has been driven by a broad range of catalysts, including:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品抛售是由多种因素驱动的，包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed rate expectations have turned hawkish, with Thursday's May core CPI running at 2.9% year-on-year (highest since Sep-25) and headline at 4.2% (highest since Apr-23), markets are now pricing in a 25 bp Fed hike by December, with the possibility of two rate hikes, a clear negative for non-yielding USD-denominated commodities.</li>
<li>The US dollar is firmer on the hawkish rate repricing, with US Dollar Index is approaching the 100 level. The index has traded mostly sideways for the past year, mostly between 96 and 100, though recent upside pressures commodities.</li>
<li>US-Iran tensions are driving risk-off flows rather than a commodities bid, with a second day of US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation against four US bases hitting global equity markets.</li>
<li>China demand backdrop is softening, with May CPI missing at 1.2% y/y vs 1.3% ests and core CPI easing to 1.1%, while PPI hit a four-year high of 3.9% on imported energy costs, a stagflationary mix that dents the bull case for the world's largest metals consumer.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储的加息预期转为鹰派，周四的 5 月核心 CPI 同比增长 2.9%（自 9 月 25 日以来最高），整体 CPI 为 4.2%（自 4 月 23 日以来最高），市场现在预计到 12 月将加息 25 个基点，甚至可能有两次加息，这对无收益的美元计价商品显然是负面影响。</li>
<li>由于鹰派利率重新定价，美元走强，美元指数接近 100 水平。该指数在过去一年中大多横盘交易，主要在 96 到 100 之间，尽管近期的上行压力影响了商品价格。</li>
<li>美伊紧张局势导致风险规避流动，而非商品需求，随着美国在霍尔木兹海峡附近进行第二天的空袭，伊朗对四个美国基地的报复打击影响了全球股市。</li>
<li>中国需求背景正在减弱，5 月 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，低于 1.3% 的预期，核心 CPI 降至 1.1%，而 PPI 因进口能源成本达到四年来的高点 3.9%，这种滞涨的组合削弱了全球最大金属消费国的牛市前景。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Miners at a glance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>矿业公司一览</p>
</div><p>Most large caps opened sharply lower this morning, but starting to bounce heading into afternoon trade. The average miner is down around 10% this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数大型公司今天早盘开盘大幅下跌，但在下午交易中开始反弹。平均矿业公司本周下跌约 10%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>BHP</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$60.46</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RIO</td>
<td>Rio Tinto</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>$179.74</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>22.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FMG</td>
<td>Fortescue</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>$19.31</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>$18.38</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-25.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AMC</td>
<td>Amcor</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>$54.71</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>$10.79</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S32</td>
<td>South32</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>$4.40</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JHX</td>
<td>James Hardie</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>$31.51</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LYC</td>
<td>Lynas Rare Earths</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>$16.43</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:50 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:50</p>
</div><p>Most gold names have also started to bounce off session lows. The below list features the ten largest gold miners by market cap, which are down an average 12.9% over the past week and down 23.6% year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数黄金公司也开始从盘中低点反弹。以下列表显示了按市值计算的十家最大的黄金矿业公司，过去一周平均下跌 12.9%，年初至今下跌 23.6%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>NEM</td>
<td>Newmont</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>$132.75</td>
<td>-11.8%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NST</td>
<td>Northern Star Resources</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>$18.42</td>
<td>-12.3%</td>
<td>-25.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EVN</td>
<td>Evolution Mining</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$10.78</td>
<td>-12.0%</td>
<td>-14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PRU</td>
<td>Perseus Mining</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>$4.60</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GMD</td>
<td>Genesis Minerals</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>$4.77</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-33.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CMM</td>
<td>Capricorn Metals</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>$11.25</td>
<td>-15.3%</td>
<td>-19.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMS</td>
<td>Ramelius Resources</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>$2.83</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>-30.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>WGX</td>
<td>Westgold Resources</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>-28.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RRL</td>
<td>Regis Resources</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>$5.55</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-26.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VAU</td>
<td>Vault Minerals</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>$3.81</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-30.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:52 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:52</p>
</div><p>The high-flying lithium sector has also experienced a pronounced pullback, though most large caps (PLS, MIN) are still holding onto healthy year-to-date gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高飞的锂行业也经历了明显的回调，尽管大多数大型公司（PLS，MIN）仍保持健康的年初至今收益。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Ticker</th>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Chg</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1 Week %</th>
<th>YTD %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>股票代码</th>
<th>公司</th>
<th>变动 %</th>
<th>价格</th>
<th>1 周 %</th>
<th>年初至今 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PLS</td>
<td>PLS Group</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>$5.71</td>
<td>-11.0%</td>
<td>35.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MIN</td>
<td>Mineral Resources</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$63.24</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>IGO</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>$8.31</td>
<td>-12.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>LTR</td>
<td>Liontown</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>$1.90</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VUL</td>
<td>Vulcan Energy Resources</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>$3.12</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>-29.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PMT</td>
<td>PMET Resources</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>$0.55</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CXO</td>
<td>Core Lithium</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>$0.25</td>
<td>-16.9%</td>
<td>-10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data as at 11:54 am AEST</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据截至澳大利亚东部时间上午 11:54</p>
</div><p>Where to from here?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来会怎样？</p>
</div><p>Commodities are caught in an awkward spot. The near-term catalysts driving this week's selloff, (hawkish Fed repricing, a firmer US dollar, US-Iran tensions and a softening China) are all pulling in the same direction, and that direction is down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品处于一个尴尬的境地。本周抛售的短期催化剂（鹰派美联储重新定价、美元走强、美伊紧张局势和中国需求减弱）都朝着同一个方向发展，而这个方向是下行。</p>
</div><p>However, the bigger picture remains unchanged as factors like AI-driven capex, rising defence spending and a more fractured geopolitical backdrop are all feeding structural demand, and there is no supply response of any note to meet it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，更大的图景保持不变，人工智能驱动的资本支出、国防开支上升以及更加分裂的地缘政治背景等因素都在推动结构性需求，而没有显著的供应响应来满足这种需求。</p>
</div><p>Late last year, Morgan Stanley flagged the copper market heading into its largest deficit in more than two decades, around 590,000 tonnes, widening to 1.1 million tonnes by 2029. With so little new supply coming online, the setup feels rather asymmetric. That said, copper is still copper. It remains acutely sensitive to the ebb and flow of global industrial activity, the direction of the US dollar and shifts in sentiment. This is probably why we see the metal go from record highs last week, to a ~7% pullback just six days later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年底，摩根士丹利指出，铜市场正面临超过二十年来最大的缺口，约为 59 万吨，到 2029 年将扩大至 110 万吨。由于新供应几乎没有上线，这种局面显得相当不对称。尽管如此，铜仍然是铜。它对全球工业活动的起伏、美元的走势以及情绪的变化极为敏感。这可能就是为什么我们看到这种金属在上周创下历史新高后，仅仅六天后就回落了约 7%。</p>
</div><p>The overall picture looks bullish, but with a sharp pullback across global equity markets, elevated geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures all in play, volatility is very, very high right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整体情况看起来是看涨的，但由于全球股市的急剧回调、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及通胀压力的影响，目前的波动性非常非常高。</p>
</div>

ASX 200 miners tumble 11% in five days as Fed, US dollar and Iran tensions hammer commodities

Market Index

德银美元指数 做多 - PowerShares

南方中证申万有色金属ETF

有色金属

华夏中证细分有色金属产业主题ETF

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

黄金 ETF - iShares

ETFS Capital Ltd.

黄金 ETF - SPDR

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

彭博美元指数 做多 - WisdomTree

白银信托 ETF - iShares

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

全球金属和采矿生产商 MSCI ETF - iShares

白银矿业股 ETF - GlobalX

必和必拓

Rio Tinto Limited

力拓

福蒂斯丘金属集团

Northern Star Resources Ltd

Amcor PLC Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh

Amcor

Evolution Mining Limited

South32

James Hardie Industries PLC Chess Units of Foreign Securities

Pilbara Minerals Limited

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

纽蒙特矿业

Perseus Mining Limited

Genesis Minerals Limited

Capricorn Metals Ltd

Ramelius Resources Limited

Westgold Resources Ltd

Mineral Resources Limited

IGO Limited

Liontown Resources Limited

Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.

Core Lithium Ltd

必和必拓集团

力拓集团

South32 Limited

South32 Ltd.

莱纳斯(ADR)

ASX 200 矿业公司在五天内下跌 11%，因为美联储、美元和伊朗紧张局势对大宗商品造成冲击