<p>友邦保险 (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%) 空头头寸 $795.19M; 比率 18.541% 今天开盘上涨 1.57%，最高达到 72.25 港元。目前交易价格为 71.6 港元，上涨 1.92%，成交量为 2928.69 万股，涉及金额为 20.8 亿港元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利在一份战术研究报告中表示，认为友邦保险的股价在接下来的 30 天内将绝对上涨。这主要是由于近期的回调，使其短期估值更具吸引力。该行估计这一情景的概率在 60% 到 70% 之间（或 “可能”）。</p>
<p>该行进一步指出，友邦保险于 2026 年 6 月 8 日完成了 17 亿美元的股票回购（约占总流通股的 1.6%）。原则上，下一轮回购预计将在 2027 年进行。它认为，即使没有回购支持，友邦保险的股价也将保持韧性。目前的估值已修正至其 2026 年预测的市净率 1.09 倍（12 个月前瞻市净率为 1.03 倍），或仅为其 2026 年新业务预测价值倍数的 1.9 倍。</p>
<p>该行重申友邦保险的下行风险有限，目前的股价代表了一个良好的长期买入机会。它维持对友邦保险的增持评级，目标价为 109 港元。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，市场担忧主要集中在针对内地游客（MCV）业务的潜在进一步监管收紧。然而，该行并不预计这种情况会发生。首先，针对跨境股票交易的监管整顿和国务院的境外投资规则并未针对 MCV 保险业务。其次，过去三周该业务一直正常运作。第三，香港保险业监管局与相关内地监管机构和部门保持密切沟通，监管重点更多集中在香港的持牌运营和销售流程上。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利补充说，即使假设从 2026 年下半年开始没有新的 MCV 业务，嵌入价值、合同服务利润和经营利润的影响也是可控的，预计在 2027 财年至 2028 财年仅会下降 2% 至 6%。该行并不预计会出现如此极端的情景。因此，它认为市场担忧过度，友邦保险的基本面依然稳健，估值极具吸引力。（ad/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 6 月 10 日 16:25。）</p>

友邦保险(ADR)

友邦保险

<p>摩根士丹利对友邦保险维持 “增持” 评级，目标价为 109 港元，预测在接下来的 30 天内，由于近期回调后的吸引估值，股价将有绝对上涨空间。该银行驳斥了市场对中国大陆游客业务可能面临的监管收紧的担忧，指出即使在最坏情况下，正常运营和可控的财务影响也能得到保障。友邦保险最近完成了 17 亿美元的回购，进一步巩固了其稳健的基本面</p>

<p>AIA (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%)  Short selling $795.19M; Ratio 18.541%  opened 1.57% higher today and peaked at HKD72.25. It is now trading at HKD71.6, up 1.92%, with turnover of 29.2869 million shares, involving HKD2.08 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>友邦保险 (01299.HK) +1.000 (+1.423%) 空头头寸 $795.19M; 比率 18.541% 今天开盘上涨 1.57%，最高达到 72.25 港元。目前交易价格为 71.6 港元，上涨 1.92%，成交量为 2928.69 万股，涉及金额为 20.8 亿港元。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley said in a tactical research report that it believes AIA’s share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days. This is mainly due to the recent pullback, which has made its near-term valuation more attractive. The bank estimates the probability of this scenario at around 60% to 70% (or “likely”).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利在一份战术研究报告中表示，认为友邦保险的股价在接下来的 30 天内将绝对上涨。这主要是由于近期的回调，使其短期估值更具吸引力。该行估计这一情景的概率在 60% 到 70% 之间（或 “可能”）。</p>
</div><p>The bank further noted that AIA completed a USD1.7 billion share buyback (approximately 1.6% of total shares outstanding) on Mon, 8 Jun 2026. In principle, the next round of buybacks is expected to take place in 2027. It believes that even without buyback support, AIA’s share price will remain resilient. The current valuation has corrected to 1.09x its 2026 forecast price-to-book ratio (1.03x on a 12-month forward basis), or only 1.9x its 2026 forecast value of new business multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行进一步指出，友邦保险于 2026 年 6 月 8 日完成了 17 亿美元的股票回购（约占总流通股的 1.6%）。原则上，下一轮回购预计将在 2027 年进行。它认为，即使没有回购支持，友邦保险的股价也将保持韧性。目前的估值已修正至其 2026 年预测的市净率 1.09 倍（12 个月前瞻市净率为 1.03 倍），或仅为其 2026 年新业务预测价值倍数的 1.9 倍。</p>
</div><p>The bank reiterated that AIA’s downside risk is limited and that the current share price represents a good long-term buying opportunity. It maintained an Overweight rating on AIA with a TP of HKD109.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行重申友邦保险的下行风险有限，目前的股价代表了一个良好的长期买入机会。它维持对友邦保险的增持评级，目标价为 109 港元。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley pointed out that market concerns are mainly focused on potential further regulatory tightening targeting mainland Chinese visitors (MCV) business. However, the bank does not expect this to materialize. Firstly, regulatory rectification on cross-border stock trading and the State Council’s outbound investment rules have not targeted MCV insurance business. Secondly, the business has been operating as usual over the past three weeks. Thirdly, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority maintains close communication with relevant mainland regulators and departments, with regulatory focus more on licensed operations and sales processes in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，市场担忧主要集中在针对内地游客（MCV）业务的潜在进一步监管收紧。然而，该行并不预计这种情况会发生。首先，针对跨境股票交易的监管整顿和国务院的境外投资规则并未针对 MCV 保险业务。其次，过去三周该业务一直正常运作。第三，香港保险业监管局与相关内地监管机构和部门保持密切沟通，监管重点更多集中在香港的持牌运营和销售流程上。</p>
</div><p>M Stanley added that even under the assumption of no new MCV business starting from 2H2026, the impact on embedded value, contractual service margin and operating profit would be manageable, with only a 2% to 6% decline expected in FY2027 to FY2028. The bank does not expect such an extreme scenario to occur. Therefore, it believes market concerns are overdone, AIA’s fundamentals remain solid, and its valuation is highly attractive. (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-10 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利补充说，即使假设从 2026 年下半年开始没有新的 MCV 业务，嵌入价值、合同服务利润和经营利润的影响也是可控的，预计在 2027 财年至 2028 财年仅会下降 2% 至 6%。该行并不预计会出现如此极端的情景。因此，它认为市场担忧过度，友邦保险的基本面依然稳健，估值极具吸引力。（ad/u）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头数据截至 2026 年 6 月 10 日 16:25。）</p>
</div>

AIA  Rebounds Nearly 2% Against Market; M Stanley Sees Absolute Share Price Upside in Next 30 Days

AASTOCKS News

摩根士丹利

友邦保险-R

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

友邦保险逆市反弹近 2%；摩根士丹利预计未来 30 天股价将有绝对上涨空间