<p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>交易员预计将进行约三次加息。</p>
<p>欧洲中央银行预计将在本周加息。一些分析师认为这并不是一个好主意。</p>
<p>市场目前完全预期欧元区将加息，四分之一点加息的概率为 97%，而半点加息的概率为 3%，当银行的管理委员会在周四召开会议时。</p>
<p>根据伦敦证券交易所集团收集的数据，交易员目前预计欧洲央行将加息约三次。本周的加息将标志着自 2023 年 9 月以来的首次加息，此前俄罗斯于去年 2 月全面入侵乌克兰导致能源价格飙升。</p>
<p>预计的货币政策收紧正值油价上涨加剧该地区通胀之际，欧元区经济在 2026 年第一季度收缩了 0.2%。由于中东冲突没有明显结束的迹象，家庭可能会进一步受到由于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭而导致的供应冲击的影响。</p>
<p>贝伦贝格的首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁称，欧洲央行可能加息的决定是一个 “正在形成的错误”，他提到欧元区消费者信心下降、服务业活动减少以及对家庭的银行贷款放缓。在这种背景下，他表示，“更高的利率作为进一步的逆风，加剧伊朗战争造成的损害”，是欧元区最不需要的。</p>
<p>“核心通胀已经与欧洲央行的严峻情景相符，并且在未来几个月可能会保持在不利情景的水平或以上，” Nuveen 的全球投资策略师劳拉·库珀在周二的一份报告中写道。“本周的风险在于，政策制定者可能会描绘出更鹰派的前景，预测显示通胀超出预期，语言暗示需要持续收紧的风险，而不是一次性调整，并且暗示七月仍然在考虑之中。”</p>
<p>在美国，联邦储备委员会本月晚些时候将召开会议，但预计将维持利率不变，英格兰银行的货币政策委员会在一周多后召开时也将如此。</p>
<p>不要错过：即将召开的美联储会议的关键是什么？沃什对所有加息暗示的反应。</p>
<p>但 AFS 集团的研究总监阿尔内·佩提梅扎斯上周表示，在他看来，由于通胀再次上升，欧洲央行别无选择，只能加息，即使这对经济并不是好事。</p>
<p>“虽然我完全支持几次加息，但我对定价超过仅仅两次战术性加息有意见，” 他指出。“他们不想被迫做更多的事情，仅仅因为市场对加息变得过于热情。”</p>
<p>佩提梅扎斯表示，三次加息 “或多或少已经被定价”，因此没有理由让行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德和她的欧洲央行 “火上浇油”。</p>
<p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-11-26 0236ET</p>

<p>市场完全预期欧洲中央银行将加息，交易员们预计将有三次加息。然而，贝伦贝格的霍尔格·施密丁称这是一种 “正在形成的错误”，因为欧元区经济正在收缩，信心下降。虽然一些分析师认为加息是对抗通胀的必要措施，但另一些人警告不要高估可能加剧地缘政治冲突带来的供应冲击的紧缩措施</p>

<p>By Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>Traders are expecting about three interest-rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员预计将进行约三次加息。</p>
</div><p>The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates this week. Some analysts think that isn't a great idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲中央银行预计将在本周加息。一些分析师认为这并不是一个好主意。</p>
</div><p>Markets are currently fully pricing in a rate hike in the eurozone, with a 97% chance of a quarter-point hike, alongside a 3% likelihood of a half-point rate rise, when the bank's governing council meets on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场目前完全预期欧元区将加息，四分之一点加息的概率为 97%，而半点加息的概率为 3%，当银行的管理委员会在周四召开会议时。</p>
</div><p>According to data collected by the London Stock Exchange Group, traders are at present expecting the ECB to raise rates about three times. An upward move this week would mark the first hike since September 2023, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning in February of the previous year drove an energy-price spike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据伦敦证券交易所集团收集的数据，交易员目前预计欧洲央行将加息约三次。本周的加息将标志着自 2023 年 9 月以来的首次加息，此前俄罗斯于去年 2 月全面入侵乌克兰导致能源价格飙升。</p>
</div><p>The predicted tightening of monetary policy comes as rising oil prices have stoked inflation in the bloc, with the eurozone's economy contracting by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026. With no end in clear sight for the conflict in the Middle East, households are likely to be further hit by the resulting supply shock amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计的货币政策收紧正值油价上涨加剧该地区通胀之际，欧元区经济在 2026 年第一季度收缩了 0.2%。由于中东冲突没有明显结束的迹象，家庭可能会进一步受到由于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭而导致的供应冲击的影响。</p>
</div><p>Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berneberg, called the ECB's likely decision to hike rates a &#34;mistake in the making,&#34; citing falling consumer confidence in the eurozone, a drop in services activity and a slowdown in bank lending to households. Against this backdrop, he said, &#34;a further headwind in the form of higher interest rates to exacerbate the Iran war damage&#34; is the last thing the eurozone needs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贝伦贝格的首席经济学家霍尔格·施密丁称，欧洲央行可能加息的决定是一个 “正在形成的错误”，他提到欧元区消费者信心下降、服务业活动减少以及对家庭的银行贷款放缓。在这种背景下，他表示，“更高的利率作为进一步的逆风，加剧伊朗战争造成的损害”，是欧元区最不需要的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Core inflation is already tracking in line with the ECB's severe scenario and is likely to remain around or above the adverse scenario over the coming months,&#34; Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, wrote in a note on Tuesday. &#34;The risk this week is that policymakers paint an even more hawkish picture, with projections showing a larger inflation overshoot, language suggesting the risk of a need for a sustained tightening process rather than a one-time adjustment and signals that July remains on the table.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“核心通胀已经与欧洲央行的严峻情景相符，并且在未来几个月可能会保持在不利情景的水平或以上，” Nuveen 的全球投资策略师劳拉·库珀在周二的一份报告中写道。“本周的风险在于，政策制定者可能会描绘出更鹰派的前景，预测显示通胀超出预期，语言暗示需要持续收紧的风险，而不是一次性调整，并且暗示七月仍然在考虑之中。”</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has a meeting later this month, but it's expected to hold interest rates static, as is the Bank of England when its Monetary Policy Committee convenes in just over a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，联邦储备委员会本月晚些时候将召开会议，但预计将维持利率不变，英格兰银行的货币政策委员会在一周多后召开时也将如此。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: The key to the upcoming Fed meeting? How Warsh reacts to all the hints of a rate hike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：即将召开的美联储会议的关键是什么？沃什对所有加息暗示的反应。</p>
</div><p>But Arne Petimezas, research director at AFS Group, said last week that, in his view, because inflation is climbing again, the ECB has no choice but to raise rates even if that isn't great for the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 AFS 集团的研究总监阿尔内·佩提梅扎斯上周表示，在他看来，由于通胀再次上升，欧洲央行别无选择，只能加息，即使这对经济并不是好事。</p>
</div><p>&#34;While I'm fully on board with a couple of hikes, I have a beef with pricing exceeding just that: two tactical hikes,&#34; he noted. &#34;They do not want to be forced to do more simply because the market has become overenthusiastic about hikes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然我完全支持几次加息，但我对定价超过仅仅两次战术性加息有意见，” 他指出。“他们不想被迫做更多的事情，仅仅因为市场对加息变得过于热情。”</p>
</div><p>With three interest-rate hikes &#34;more or less priced in already,&#34; Petimezas said, there is no reason for President Christine Lagarde and her ECB to &#34;pour oil on the fire.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佩提梅扎斯表示，三次加息 “或多或少已经被定价”，因此没有理由让行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德和她的欧洲央行 “火上浇油”。</p>
</div><p>-Nora Redmond</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-诺拉·雷德蒙德</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-11-26 0236ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-11-26 0236ET</p>
</div>

市场正在将欧洲央行的加息预期纳入价格——而一位顶级经济学家认为这可能是一个正在酝酿的错误