<p>全球音乐流媒体市场最具主导地位的公司，Spotify Technology（纽约证券交易所代码：SPOT）的股票在过去 52 周内承受了显著压力。去年 6 月，Spotify 的股价达到了历史最高点，交易价格超过 750 美元。然而，自那时以来，股价大幅下跌，目前交易价格比历史高点低了 30% 以上。</p>
<p>在此期间，Spotify 的增长显著放缓，引发了对其估值的担忧，估值在 2025 年达到了较高水平。Spotify 最近的财报也没有帮助，股价在发布后暴跌超过 12%。</p>
<p>获取 <strong>Spotify Technology</strong> 的提醒：</p>
<p>然而，该公司最近举行了四年来的首次投资者日，期间透露了雄心勃勃的目标，旨在改变其股票的叙述，并专注于其北极星计划。在经历了一段困难时期后，投资者开始重新买入。</p>
<h2>回顾 Spotify 的故事：股价因增长放缓大幅下跌</h2>
<p>Spotify 股价下跌的主要原因是两个因素的结合：增长放缓和高估值。值得注意的是，在 2024 年，Spotify 实现了 20% 的强劲年度货币中性增长，较 2023 年的 16% 增长有了显著加速。</p>
<p>然而，该公司的增长率在 2025 年中期开始显著下降。在 2025 年第二季度，Spotify 实现了 15% 的货币中性同比增长，但由于货币逆风，报告的增长仅为 10%。这与前一季度超过 15% 的报告增长相比，显著下降，成为 Spotify 历史上最低的季度增长率之一。</p>
<p>与此同时，Spotify 在 2025 年中期的前瞻市盈率（P/E）超过 60 倍，这一水平与低双位数和放缓的增长并不一致，尽管 Spotify 在音乐流媒体行业中处于稳固地位。Spotify 在 2025 年最后一个季度的报告收入同比增长不足 7%，货币中性增长为 13%。总体而言，由于货币逆风和潜在的增长放缓，Spotify 的增长显著下降，其前瞻市盈率和股价也随之下跌。</p>
<p>Spotify 在 2026 年第一季度略微重新加速，报告增长达到 8.2%，货币中性增长为 14%。该公司在收入和利润方面均超出预期。然而，由于指导意见疲软以及对高级订阅用户增长的担忧，股价仍然下跌了 12%。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，该公司在 5 月的投资者日显然是一个赢回市场支持的机会，而它确实做到了这一点。</p>
<h2>Spotify 瞄准中等青少年增长，寻求大幅扩大利润率以实现北极星目标</h2>
<p>在投资者日上，Spotify 宣布了几个关键目标，引起了市场的关注，股价在接下来的两天内上涨了 20%。首先，该公司预计到 2030 年将实现中等青少年货币中性年增长。</p>
<p>尽管 “中等青少年” 仍在 Spotify 最近的放缓增长率之内，但投资者仍然将其视为明确的积极信号。值得注意的是，这一目标表明 Spotify 并不预计其增长放缓将继续影响股价。此外，Spotify 是日益渗透的音乐流媒体行业的领导者。随着渗透率的上升，投资者往往自然会预期增长率下降，因为寻找新客户变得更加困难。因此，Spotify 预计长期增长至少将保持稳定，表明其对渗透担忧的韧性。</p>
<p>Spotify 还预计到 2030 年将实现非常显著的利润率扩张。该公司目标是将毛利率提高到 35% 至 40% 之间。这意味着与 2025 年 32% 的毛利率相比，毛利率将大幅提高 300 到 800 个基点。同时，Spotify 预计运营利润率将增加超过 700 个基点，从 2025 年的约 13% 提高到 2030 年的 20% 以上。</p>
<p>所有这些都与 Spotify 实现其三个长期 “北极星” 目标有关：10 亿订阅用户、1000 亿美元的年收入和超过 40% 的毛利率。将非付费用户转化为订阅用户是该公司实现北极星目标的关键杠杆之一。</p>
<p>该公司指出，71% 的订阅用户在转为付费用户之前使用其免费服务。因此，凭借超过 450 万的免费用户，如果这一 71% 的比例保持不变，该公司可以在未来增加超过 3 亿的付费订阅用户。这将使其当前近 3 亿的订阅用户数量翻倍，达到超过 6 亿，使其更接近 10 亿订阅用户的目标。</p>
<h2>分析师在 Spotify 投资者日后指出未来的上行空间</h2>
<p>华尔街分析师对 Spotify 的投资者日反应积极，MarketBeat 跟踪了多个价格目标的上调。更广泛地说，分析师对 Spotify 的前景表现出强劲的支持。MarketBeat 的共识价格目标接近 656 美元，意味着股价有约 35% 的上行空间，而 Spotify 没有卖出评级，六个持有评级和 23 个买入评级。</p>
<p>即使在股价最近上涨之后，Spotify 的前瞻市盈率仍接近 33 倍，远低于自 2025 年初以来的 51 倍平均水平。</p>
<p>总体而言，Spotify 对其持续稳定增长和快速扩大利润率的能力表现出强烈信心，以追求其北极星目标。同时，股价显著低于之前的水平，使得 Spotify 的前景在未来偏向上行。</p>
<h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Spotify Technology 吗？</h2>
<p>在考虑投资 Spotify Technology 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
<p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 Spotify Technology 并不在名单上。</p>
<p>尽管 Spotify Technology 目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
<p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>

SPOT

<p>Spotify 的股价在四年来首次投资者日后上涨超过 20%，公司在会上阐述了雄心勃勃的 “北极星” 目标。管理层预计到 2030 年，货币中性年增长率将达到中十位数，并预计显著的利润率扩张，目标是毛利率达到 35-40%，营业利润率超过 20%。这些目标旨在到 2030 年实现 10 亿用户和 1000 亿美元的收入，显示出对近期增长放缓担忧的韧性</p>

<p>Shares of the world’s most dominant player in music streaming, Spotify Technology NYSE: SPOT, have come under significant pressure in the past 52 weeks. In June of last year, Spotify hit its all-time highs, trading well above $750. However, the stock has come way down since, now trading more than 30% below those highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球音乐流媒体市场最具主导地位的公司，Spotify Technology（纽约证券交易所代码：SPOT）的股票在过去 52 周内承受了显著压力。去年 6 月，Spotify 的股价达到了历史最高点，交易价格超过 750 美元。然而，自那时以来，股价大幅下跌，目前交易价格比历史高点低了 30% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Over this time, growth has fallen considerably, raising alarms around Spotify’s valuation, which reached elevated levels in 2025. Spotify’s latest earnings report didn’t help either, with shares tanking more than 12% afterward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此期间，Spotify 的增长显著放缓，引发了对其估值的担忧，估值在 2025 年达到了较高水平。Spotify 最近的财报也没有帮助，股价在发布后暴跌超过 12%。</p>
</div><p>Get <strong>Spotify Technology</strong> alerts:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>获取 <strong>Spotify Technology</strong> 的提醒：</p>
</div><p>However, the company recently held its first Investor Day in four years, during which it revealed ambitious goals as it seeks to change the narrative around its stock and focus on its North Star initiatives. After going through a difficult stretch, investors are buying in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司最近举行了四年来的首次投资者日，期间透露了雄心勃勃的目标，旨在改变其股票的叙述，并专注于其北极星计划。在经历了一段困难时期后，投资者开始重新买入。</p>
</div><h2>Rewinding Spotify’s Story: Shares Take a Big Hit as Growth Falls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>回顾 Spotify 的故事：股价因增长放缓大幅下跌</h2>
</div><p>Much of the drop in Spotify shares has come due to a combination of two factors: decelerating growth and a high multiple. Notably, in 2024, Spotify posted strong full-year currency-neutral growth of 20% year-over-year (YOY), a strong acceleration from 16% YOY growth in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify 股价下跌的主要原因是两个因素的结合：增长放缓和高估值。值得注意的是，在 2024 年，Spotify 实现了 20% 的强劲年度货币中性增长，较 2023 年的 16% 增长有了显著加速。</p>
</div><p>However, the company’s growth rate really started to come down in the middle of 2025. In Q2 2025, Spotify posted currency-neutral growth of 15% YOY, but currency headwinds pushed reported growth to just 10% YOY. This was a significant drop-off from over 15% reported growth in the prior quarter and was one of Spotify's lowest quarterly growth rates ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该公司的增长率在 2025 年中期开始显著下降。在 2025 年第二季度，Spotify 实现了 15% 的货币中性同比增长，但由于货币逆风，报告的增长仅为 10%。这与前一季度超过 15% 的报告增长相比，显著下降，成为 Spotify 历史上最低的季度增长率之一。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Spotify was trading at an elevated forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 60x during the middle of 2025. This level was not consistent with low double-digit and decelerating growth, despite Spotify’s stalwart position in the music streaming industry. Spotify’s reported revenue increased by less than 7% YOY in the last quarter of 2025, and currency-neutral growth was 13% YOY. Overall, through a combination of currency headwinds and underlying deceleration, Spotify’s growth fell significantly, with its forward P/E and stock price falling along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Spotify 在 2025 年中期的前瞻市盈率（P/E）超过 60 倍，这一水平与低双位数和放缓的增长并不一致，尽管 Spotify 在音乐流媒体行业中处于稳固地位。Spotify 在 2025 年最后一个季度的报告收入同比增长不足 7%，货币中性增长为 13%。总体而言，由于货币逆风和潜在的增长放缓，Spotify 的增长显著下降，其前瞻市盈率和股价也随之下跌。</p>
</div><p>Spotify was able to slightly re-accelerate its reported growth to 8.2% in Q1 2026 and currency-neutral growth to 14% YOY. The company also posted beats on both the top and bottom lines. However, the stock fell 12% anyways, based on weak guidance and concerns over premium subscriber growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify 在 2026 年第一季度略微重新加速，报告增长达到 8.2%，货币中性增长为 14%。该公司在收入和利润方面均超出预期。然而，由于指导意见疲软以及对高级订阅用户增长的担忧，股价仍然下跌了 12%。</p>
</div><p>In this context, the company’s Investor Day in May was a clear opportunity to win back the support of markets, and it did just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，该公司在 5 月的投资者日显然是一个赢回市场支持的机会，而它确实做到了这一点。</p>
</div><h2>Spotify Eyes Mid-Teens Growth, Large Margin Expansion in Path to North Stars</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Spotify 瞄准中等青少年增长，寻求大幅扩大利润率以实现北极星目标</h2>
</div><p>At its Investor Day, Spotify announced several key targets that got the attention of markets, with shares spiking 20% in the following two days. First off, the company guided for mid-teens currency-neutral annual growth through 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资者日上，Spotify 宣布了几个关键目标，引起了市场的关注，股价在接下来的两天内上涨了 20%。首先，该公司预计到 2030 年将实现中等青少年货币中性年增长。</p>
</div><p>Although “mid-teens” is within the decelerating growth rates that Spotify has been recently putting up, investors still took this as a clear positive. Notably, this target shows that Spotify does not expect the deceleration in its growth that has weighed on shares to continue. Additionally, Spotify is the leader in the increasingly penetrated music streaming industry. As penetration rises, investors tend to naturally expect growth rates to fall, as it becomes more difficult to find new customers. Thus, Spotify’s expectation that growth will at least remain stable long-term indicates resilience against penetration concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 “中等青少年” 仍在 Spotify 最近的放缓增长率之内，但投资者仍然将其视为明确的积极信号。值得注意的是，这一目标表明 Spotify 并不预计其增长放缓将继续影响股价。此外，Spotify 是日益渗透的音乐流媒体行业的领导者。随着渗透率的上升，投资者往往自然会预期增长率下降，因为寻找新客户变得更加困难。因此，Spotify 预计长期增长至少将保持稳定，表明其对渗透担忧的韧性。</p>
</div><p>Spotify also expects to see very significant margin expansion by 2030. The firm is targeting gross margins of between 35% and 40%. This implies a sizable increase of between 300 and 800 basis points compared to its 2025 gross margin of 32%. Meanwhile, Spotify projects an operating margin increase of more than 700 basis points, moving from around 13% in 2025 to over 20% in 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify 还预计到 2030 年将实现非常显著的利润率扩张。该公司目标是将毛利率提高到 35% 至 40% 之间。这意味着与 2025 年 32% 的毛利率相比，毛利率将大幅提高 300 到 800 个基点。同时，Spotify 预计运营利润率将增加超过 700 个基点，从 2025 年的约 13% 提高到 2030 年的 20% 以上。</p>
</div><p>All of this goes back to Spotify achieving its three longer-term “North Stars&#34;: 1 billion subscribers, $100 billion in annual revenue, and over 40% gross margin. Converting non-paying users to subscribers is one of the key levers that the firm aims to pull to achieve its North Stars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都与 Spotify 实现其三个长期 “北极星” 目标有关：10 亿订阅用户、1000 亿美元的年收入和超过 40% 的毛利率。将非付费用户转化为订阅用户是该公司实现北极星目标的关键杠杆之一。</p>
</div><p>The company notes that 71% of its subscribers use its free offering before converting to the premium offering. Thus, with over 450 free users, the company could add more than 300 million premium subscribers over time if that 71% figure holds. This would result in the firm more than doubling its current subscriber count of nearly 300 million to over 600 million, putting it much closer to the 1 billion subscriber goal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司指出，71% 的订阅用户在转为付费用户之前使用其免费服务。因此，凭借超过 450 万的免费用户，如果这一 71% 的比例保持不变，该公司可以在未来增加超过 3 亿的付费订阅用户。这将使其当前近 3 亿的订阅用户数量翻倍，达到超过 6 亿，使其更接近 10 亿订阅用户的目标。</p>
</div><h2>Analysts Point to Upside Ahead After Spotify’s Investor Day</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师在 Spotify 投资者日后指出未来的上行空间</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street analysts also reacted positively to Spotify’s Investor Day, with MarketBeat tracking several price target increases. More broadly, analysts are showing solid support for Spotify’s outlook. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $656 implies about 35% upside in shares, while Spotify has zero Sell ratings, six Holds, and 23 Buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街分析师对 Spotify 的投资者日反应积极，MarketBeat 跟踪了多个价格目标的上调。更广泛地说，分析师对 Spotify 的前景表现出强劲的支持。MarketBeat 的共识价格目标接近 656 美元，意味着股价有约 35% 的上行空间，而 Spotify 没有卖出评级，六个持有评级和 23 个买入评级。</p>
</div><p>Even after the stock’s recent spike, Spotify trades at a forward P/E near 33x, well below its 51x average since the start of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在股价最近上涨之后，Spotify 的前瞻市盈率仍接近 33 倍，远低于自 2025 年初以来的 51 倍平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Spotify is showing strong confidence in its ability to continue growing steadily and expand margins at a fast pace in pursuit of its North Stars. Meanwhile, the stock is trading meaningfully below prior levels, skewing Spotify’s outlook to the upside going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，Spotify 对其持续稳定增长和快速扩大利润率的能力表现出强烈信心，以追求其北极星目标。同时，股价显著低于之前的水平，使得 Spotify 的前景在未来偏向上行。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Invest $1,000 in Spotify Technology Right Now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你现在应该投资 1000 美元在 Spotify Technology 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before you consider Spotify Technology, you'll want to hear this.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑投资 Spotify Technology 之前，你需要听听这个。</p>
</div><p>MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Spotify Technology wasn't on the list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MarketBeat 每天跟踪华尔街顶级评级和表现最佳的研究分析师及其推荐给客户的股票。MarketBeat 已识别出五只股票，顶级分析师正在悄悄地向客户推荐现在购买，以便在更广泛的市场注意到之前……而 Spotify Technology 并不在名单上。</p>
</div><p>While Spotify Technology currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Spotify Technology 目前在分析师中获得了中等买入评级，但顶级分析师认为这五只股票更值得购买。</p>
</div><p>View The Five Stocks Here</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这里查看这五只股票</p>
</div>

Spotify 的 “北极星” 展望让投资者如闻悦耳之音