<p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>可预测的价格将支持比特币成为一种可行的货币</p>
<p>比特币（BTCUSD）在几十年的回报率不到 1% 的年化收益。</p>
<p>这正是我多年来撰写关于这种加密货币的文章时所依据的公允价值模型所暗示的。该模型基于梅特卡夫定律，假设网络的价值与网络中成员数量的平方成正比。</p>
<p>正如您从下面的图表中看到的，每当比特币偏离其公允价值线时，随后都会回归。现在是最新的一次，比特币目前的交易价格几乎正好位于该线之上。</p>
<p>这个梅特卡夫定律模型的比特币公允价值最早是六年前由前 TCW 集团商品投资组合经理克劳德·厄尔布向我提出的。在最近的一次采访中，厄尔布强调，尽管比特币的行为与该模型一致，但并不能证明该模型是正确或真实的。不过，该模型显然比一些竞争模型更有助于理解比特币——其中一些模型预测比特币将达到 100 万美元。</p>
<p>除了计算比特币目前相对于其公允价值的状态外，该模型在预测其未来可能回报方面也很有帮助。鉴于比特币的回报率已经下降多年，并且只要未来比特币的数量增长受到限制，就没有理由相信比特币的价格会大幅上涨。这在上面的图表中隐含地表现出来，公允价值线的斜率变得几乎平坦。</p>
<p>实际上，该线最终将变为水平。比特币的供应预计将在 2140 年左右达到其算法确定的 2100 万的上限，而截至今天，已经发行了超过 2000 万个币。当比特币达到这一上限时，公允价值模型将其价格定在大约 120,000 美元，代表从当前价格年化回报率为 0.6%。此后，价格将不再进一步上涨。在最近发布在社会科学研究网络上的一篇论文中，厄尔布详细阐述了该模型的这些及其他含义。</p>
<p>尽管许多比特币的支持者会对这一预测感到失望，但仍有一线希望：稳定的价格将有助于比特币成为一种交换媒介，这也是该加密货币最初的使用案例。如果在未来几年内比特币以快速的速度升值，比特币交易将常常触发高额的资本利得税。</p>
<p>举个例子，假设您用以半价购买的比特币购买了一部售价约 800 美元的 iPhone 17 标准版。您的资本收益将为 400 美元，联邦税可能高达 80 美元，而对于加利福尼亚州的纳税人，州税可能高达 53 美元。</p>
<p>这就是为什么稳定的价格是比特币成为广泛使用的交换媒介的前提。如果梅特卡夫定律模型能够帮助比特币回归其支持者最初希望它成为的样子，那将是非常讽刺的。</p>
<p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级追踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他可以通过 mark@hulbertratings.com 与他联系。</p>
<p>另请阅读：比特币牛市仍在继续。这些图表显示他们只是转向了更热门的市场。</p>
<p>更多内容：伟大的黄金神话：为什么这种贵金属不是我们所说的战争对冲工具</p>
<p>——马克·霍尔伯特</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>

GBTC

FBTC

IBIT

<p>基于梅特卡夫定律的公允价值模型表明，比特币的长期年化回报可能接近于零，到 2140 年稳定在约 120,000 美元。虽然这让看涨者感到失望，但它支持比特币作为一种可行的交换媒介的初衷，因为它避免了与快速价格上涨相关的资本利得税负担</p>

<p>By Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>A predictable price would support bitcoin becoming a viable currency</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可预测的价格将支持比特币成为一种可行的货币</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) return over many decades is less than 1% annualized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（BTCUSD）在几十年的回报率不到 1% 的年化收益。</p>
</div><p>That's the implication of a fair-value model for the cryptocurrency that has performed admirably over the years I have been writing about it. It is based on Metcalfe's Law, which assumes that the value of a network is proportional to the square of how many members are in that network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是我多年来撰写关于这种加密货币的文章时所依据的公允价值模型所暗示的。该模型基于梅特卡夫定律，假设网络的价值与网络中成员数量的平方成正比。</p>
</div><p>As you can see from the chart below, on each past occasion when bitcoin has diverged from its fair-value line, it has subsequently reverted. Now is the latest such occasion, with bitcoin currently trading almost precisely on top of that line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如您从下面的图表中看到的，每当比特币偏离其公允价值线时，随后都会回归。现在是最新的一次，比特币目前的交易价格几乎正好位于该线之上。</p>
</div><p>This Metcalfe's Law model of bitcoin's fair value was first proposed to me six years ago by Claude Erb, a former commodities portfolio manager at TCW Group. In a recent interview, Erb stressed that while bitcoin's behavior is consistent with the model, it doesn't prove that it is right or true. Still, the model certainly seems to be a more helpful way of thinking about bitcoin than competing models - some of which have predicted bitcoin would reach $1 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个梅特卡夫定律模型的比特币公允价值最早是六年前由前 TCW 集团商品投资组合经理克劳德·厄尔布向我提出的。在最近的一次采访中，厄尔布强调，尽管比特币的行为与该模型一致，但并不能证明该模型是正确或真实的。不过，该模型显然比一些竞争模型更有助于理解比特币——其中一些模型预测比特币将达到 100 万美元。</p>
</div><p>In addition to calculating where bitcoin stands today relative to its fair value, the model is also helpful in projecting its possible future return. Given that bitcoin returns have fallen for years, and as long as the future growth in the number of bitcoins is limited, there may be no reason to believe that the price of bitcoin will rise substantially. This is implicit in the chart above, which shows the slope of the fair-value line becoming nearly flat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了计算比特币目前相对于其公允价值的状态外，该模型在预测其未来可能回报方面也很有帮助。鉴于比特币的回报率已经下降多年，并且只要未来比特币的数量增长受到限制，就没有理由相信比特币的价格会大幅上涨。这在上面的图表中隐含地表现出来，公允价值线的斜率变得几乎平坦。</p>
</div><p>That line will eventually become horizontal, in fact. Bitcoin's supply is projected to reach its algorithmically determined limit of 21 million around the year 2140, whereas just over 20 million coins have been issued up until today. The fair-value model puts bitcoin's price at roughly $120,000 when it hits that limit, representing a return of 0.6% annualized from its current price. Thereafter the price would not increase any further. In a paper recently posted on the Social Science Research Network, Erb spelled out these and other implications of the model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，该线最终将变为水平。比特币的供应预计将在 2140 年左右达到其算法确定的 2100 万的上限，而截至今天，已经发行了超过 2000 万个币。当比特币达到这一上限时，公允价值模型将其价格定在大约 120,000 美元，代表从当前价格年化回报率为 0.6%。此后，价格将不再进一步上涨。在最近发布在社会科学研究网络上的一篇论文中，厄尔布详细阐述了该模型的这些及其他含义。</p>
</div><p>Although many of bitcoin's advocates will be disappointed with this forecast, there is a silver lining: A flat price would help support bitcoin becoming a medium of exchange, which was the original use case for the cryptocurrency. If it were instead to appreciate at a fast rate in coming years, bitcoin transactions would often trigger a hefty capital-gains tax bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管许多比特币的支持者会对这一预测感到失望，但仍有一线希望：稳定的价格将有助于比特币成为一种交换媒介，这也是该加密货币最初的使用案例。如果在未来几年内比特币以快速的速度升值，比特币交易将常常触发高额的资本利得税。</p>
</div><p>To illustrate, consider a scenario in which you purchase an iPhone 17 standard model, which retails for around $800, with bitcoin that you purchased for half its current price. Your capital gain would be $400, and the federal tax due on that would be as much as $80, while for California taxpayers, the state tax due would be as much as $53.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>举个例子，假设您用以半价购买的比特币购买了一部售价约 800 美元的 iPhone 17 标准版。您的资本收益将为 400 美元，联邦税可能高达 80 美元，而对于加利福尼亚州的纳税人，州税可能高达 53 美元。</p>
</div><p>That's why a stable price is a prerequisite for bitcoin becoming a widely used medium of exchange. It would be ironic indeed if the Metcalfe's Law model were to help bitcoin come full circle to what its supporters originally intended it to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么稳定的价格是比特币成为广泛使用的交换媒介的前提。如果梅特卡夫定律模型能够帮助比特币回归其支持者最初希望它成为的样子，那将是非常讽刺的。</p>
</div><p>Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马克·霍尔伯特是 MarketWatch 的定期撰稿人。他的霍尔伯特评级追踪支付固定费用进行审计的投资通讯。他可以通过 mark@hulbertratings.com 与他联系。</p>
</div><p>Also read: Bitcoin bulls are still around. These charts show they just moved on to hotter markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另请阅读：比特币牛市仍在继续。这些图表显示他们只是转向了更热门的市场。</p>
</div><p>More: The great gold myth: Why the precious metal isn't the war hedge we're told it is</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更多内容：伟大的黄金神话：为什么这种贵金属不是我们所说的战争对冲工具</p>
</div><p>-Mark Hulbert</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>——马克·霍尔伯特</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻社和华尔街日报独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-13-26 1452ET</p>
</div>

Bitcoin's long-term return may actually be close to zero - and that could be just what it needs

Dow Jones

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博时比特币

华夏比特币

MBC比特币

比特币的长期回报实际上可能接近于零——这或许正是它所需要的