<p>中国的消费支出和投资降至疫情以来未见的水平，暴露出经济仍面临的风险，尽管在伊朗局势缓和的情况下，出口却在蓬勃发展。</p>
<p>上个月零售销售同比下降了 0.6%，降幅超出预期，这是自 2022 年底疫情解封以来的首次下降。</p>
<p>根据国家统计局周二发布的数据，5 月份房价以更快的速度下跌，固定资产投资在前五个月同比萎缩了超出预期的 4.1%。</p>
<p>与需求端的疲软形成对比的是，工业生产增长了 4.5%，高于 4 月份的 4.1%，略好于预期。调查显示的城市失业率降至 5.1%。</p>
<p>ING 银行大中华区首席经济学家 Lynn Song 表示：“尽管科技和出口相关行业有一些强劲的表现，但整体经济仍在挣扎。这可能最终会给政策制定者施加压力，要求放宽政策。”</p>
<p>由人工智能驱动的出口繁荣已成为中国经济失衡的新来源，尽管国内消费支出因住房危机和脆弱的就业市场而疲软，但生产却在提升。</p>
<p>但如果国内需求没有强劲反弹，经济面临更深层次放缓的风险，即使美伊协议重启霍尔木兹海峡的承诺有望稳定全球航运和能源价格。</p>
<p>零售销售和投资的意外下滑也重新引发了人们对其在衡量整体经济健康方面准确性的质疑。</p>
<p>根据瑞银证券首席中国经济学家 Yu Song 的说法，服务业生产指数在 5 月份同比小幅上升至 4.4%，与国内生产总值的增长模式的相关性比主要由商品构成的零售销售更强。</p>
<p>他表示，去年显现出的固定资产投资数据的不一致性也意味着它可能夸大了疲软的程度。</p>
<p>Song 在接受彭博电视采访时表示：“第二季度的 GDP 数据看起来疲软，但并没有达到人们从 4 月份的数据中预期的那种疲软。” 一些分析师估计 4 月份的增长接近 4%，低于政府官方的全年目标 4.5% 至 5%。</p>
<p>数据显示令投资者失望，人民币在数据发布后在离岸交易中贬值，前一天刚达到 2023 年初以来的最强水平。恒生中国企业指数在香港时间下午 1 点时进一步下跌约 1.3%。</p>
<p>在投资方面，2026 年前五个月私人资本支出同比下降了 7.1%，是自 2020 年以来的最差增速。制造业投资六年来首次下降。</p>
<p>进一步的证据表明经济出现日益扩大的分化。高科技行业的投资增长了 4.5%，半导体和锂电池制造商的资本支出分别增长了 11% 和 25%。</p>
<p>国家统计局发言人傅凌辉将投资和零售销售的下滑归因于包括强降雨在内的因素。他还指出，去年由于补贴驱动的高消费水平以及经济向新增长动力的转型。</p>
<p>傅在北京的简报中表示：“自第二季度以来，由于全球环境的复杂变化以及国内经济的结构调整，某些经济指标放缓。一些公司面临困难。但从整体趋势来看，经济的动能仍然总体稳定。”</p>
<p>在零售销售中，大宗商品引领了下降。汽车购买占整体数字的约 8%，5 月份同比暴跌 16%。不包括汽车，5 月份零售销售增长了 1.1%。</p>
<p>家电以及建筑和装饰材料的销售也以两位数的速度收缩。</p>
<p>上个月房价的快速下跌对消费者信心并不乐观。新房和二手房的价格均较 4 月份以更快的速度下降。</p>
<p>房地产市场的任何改善迹象仍限于最大城市，部分原因是全球人工智能投资繁荣带来的更好收益。</p>
<p>工业产出数据的细分显示出先进制造业与其他行业之间的分化加剧。</p>
<p>高科技制造业在 5 月份的增值方面同比飙升 15%，较 4 月份的 13% 加速。电子行业的产出增长了 17%，得益于对人工智能相关产品和设备的强劲需求。</p>
<p>今年出口增长的激增仍足以防止中国经济过度降温。全球人工智能投资超级周期正在推高世界制造强国生产的硬件的价格和需求。</p>
<p>5 月份的对外出口以三个月以来最快的速度飙升。芯片和计算机约占出口和进口增长的一半，半导体的海外销售激增 111%。</p>
<p>与美国的贸易关系稳定，受到特朗普总统访问北京的进一步加强，进一步增强了前景。</p>
<p>政策制定者似乎在应对中国的双速增长时采取了观望态度，此前努力促使消费者消费的措施所带来的收益证明是短暂的。</p>
<p>政府在 3 月和 4 月减少了公共支出，因为债券销售放缓。尽管经济学家也指出可能缺乏合格项目，但当局可能对 GDP 第一季度的表现感到满意——当时增长了 5%。</p>
<p>中国中信银行国际首席经济学家丁爽表示：“国内需求仍然需要宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策来提振。如果油价回落，第二季度降息和降低存款准备金率以及增加财政支出的可能性很高。”</p>

恒生指数

盈富基金

安硕恒生指数

南方两倍看多恒指

南方一倍看空恒指

南方两倍看空恒指

<p>中国经济在 5 月份停滞不前，消费者支出和投资降至疫情时期的低点，零售销售下降了 0.6%，固定资产投资缩减了 4.1%。尽管受人工智能相关出口和高科技制造业推动，工业生产增长了 4.5%，但由于住房危机和脆弱的就业市场，国内需求依然疲软。这种分歧重新引发了人们对经济稳定性和政策宽松的担忧，导致人民币贬值和香港股市下跌</p>

<p>CHINA’S consumer spending and investment slumped to levels unseen since the pandemic, exposing risks still facing the economy even as it benefits from a deescalation in tensions around Iran while exports boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的消费支出和投资降至疫情以来未见的水平，暴露出经济仍面临的风险，尽管在伊朗局势缓和的情况下，出口却在蓬勃发展。</p>
</div><p>Retail sales declined 0.6 per cent last month from a year ago, posting a worse-than-forecast drop that was their first fall since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月零售销售同比下降了 0.6%，降幅超出预期，这是自 2022 年底疫情解封以来的首次下降。</p>
</div><p>Home prices fell at a quicker pace in May and fixed-asset investment shrank a deeper-than-expected 4.1 per cent in the first five months from a year ago, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国家统计局周二发布的数据，5 月份房价以更快的速度下跌，固定资产投资在前五个月同比萎缩了超出预期的 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>In contrast to weakness on the demand side, industrial production climbed 4.5 per cent, up from 4.1 per cent in April and slightly better than forecast. The surveyed urban jobless rate eased to 5.1 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与需求端的疲软形成对比的是，工业生产增长了 4.5%，高于 4 月份的 4.1%，略好于预期。调查显示的城市失业率降至 5.1%。</p>
</div><p>“While there are pockets of strength in tech and export-related industries, the broader economy is still struggling,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV. “This could eventually add pressure on policymakers to ease policy.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 银行大中华区首席经济学家 Lynn Song 表示：“尽管科技和出口相关行业有一些强劲的表现，但整体经济仍在挣扎。这可能最终会给政策制定者施加压力，要求放宽政策。”</p>
</div><p>An export boom driven by artificial intelligence has become a new source of economic imbalance in China, lifting production as domestic consumer spending sags under the weight of a housing crisis and a fragile jobs market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由人工智能驱动的出口繁荣已成为中国经济失衡的新来源，尽管国内消费支出因住房危机和脆弱的就业市场而疲软，但生产却在提升。</p>
</div><p>But without stronger demand at home, the economy is at risk of a deeper slowdown even as the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz holds out the promise of stabilizing global shipping and energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果国内需求没有强劲反弹，经济面临更深层次放缓的风险，即使美伊协议重启霍尔木兹海峡的承诺有望稳定全球航运和能源价格。</p>
</div><p>The worse-than-expected slump in retail sales and investment also reignited questions around their accuracy in gauging broader economic health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>零售销售和投资的意外下滑也重新引发了人们对其在衡量整体经济健康方面准确性的质疑。</p>
</div><p>The services production index, which inched up to 4.4 per cent on year in May, has a stronger correlation with the pattern of growth in gross domestic product than retail sales, which comprised mostly goods, according to Yu Song, chief China economist at UBS Securities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据瑞银证券首席中国经济学家 Yu Song 的说法，服务业生产指数在 5 月份同比小幅上升至 4.4%，与国内生产总值的增长模式的相关性比主要由商品构成的零售销售更强。</p>
</div><p>Inconsistency in the fixed-asset investment data that became apparent last year also mean it might exaggerate the weakness, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，去年显现出的固定资产投资数据的不一致性也意味着它可能夸大了疲软的程度。</p>
</div><p>“Second-quarter GDP data looks to be weak, but not quite as weak as one would expect from April data,” Song told Bloomberg Television. Some analysts estimated growth at near 4 per cent in April, tracking below the government’s official full-year target of 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Song 在接受彭博电视采访时表示：“第二季度的 GDP 数据看起来疲软，但并没有达到人们从 4 月份的数据中预期的那种疲软。” 一些分析师估计 4 月份的增长接近 4%，低于政府官方的全年目标 4.5% 至 5%。</p>
</div><p>In a sign the figures disappointed investors, the yuan weakened in offshore trading after the data release, a day after reaching its strongest level since early 2023. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index extended losses, falling about 1.3 per cent as of 1 pm in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据显示令投资者失望，人民币在数据发布后在离岸交易中贬值，前一天刚达到 2023 年初以来的最强水平。恒生中国企业指数在香港时间下午 1 点时进一步下跌约 1.3%。</p>
</div><p>Within investment, private capital expenditure slumped 7.1 per cent in the first five months of 2026 from a year ago, the worst pace since 2020. Manufacturing investment declined for the first time in six years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资方面，2026 年前五个月私人资本支出同比下降了 7.1%，是自 2020 年以来的最差增速。制造业投资六年来首次下降。</p>
</div><p>Further evidence emerged indicating a growing divergence in the economy. Investment in high-tech industries expanded 4.5 per cent, with capital expenditure of semiconductor and lithium battery makers up 11 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步的证据表明经济出现日益扩大的分化。高科技行业的投资增长了 4.5%，半导体和锂电池制造商的资本支出分别增长了 11% 和 25%。</p>
</div><p>NBS spokesman Fu Linghui attributed the slump in investment and retail sales to factors including heavy rainfall. Fu also pointed to last year’s high level of spending driven by subsidies as well as the economy’s transition to new growth drivers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国家统计局发言人傅凌辉将投资和零售销售的下滑归因于包括强降雨在内的因素。他还指出，去年由于补贴驱动的高消费水平以及经济向新增长动力的转型。</p>
</div><p>“Since the second quarter, certain economic indicators slowed because of complex changes in the global environment as well as structural adjustment in the domestic economy,” said Fu in a briefing in Beijing. “Some companies are facing difficulties. But looking at the overall trend, the momentum of the economy remains overall stable.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傅在北京的简报中表示：“自第二季度以来，由于全球环境的复杂变化以及国内经济的结构调整，某些经济指标放缓。一些公司面临困难。但从整体趋势来看，经济的动能仍然总体稳定。”</p>
</div><p>Under retail sales, big-ticket items led the decline. Car purchases, which make up about 8 per cent of the overall figure, plunged 16 per cent in May from a year ago. Excluding autos, retail sales grew 1.1 per cent in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售销售中，大宗商品引领了下降。汽车购买占整体数字的约 8%，5 月份同比暴跌 16%。不包括汽车，5 月份零售销售增长了 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>Sales of home appliances as well as construction and decoration materials also contracted at a double-digit pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家电以及建筑和装饰材料的销售也以两位数的速度收缩。</p>
</div><p>A faster fall in home prices last month doesn’t bode well for consumer sentiment. Both new and second-hand homes declined in price at a quicker pace compared with April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月房价的快速下跌对消费者信心并不乐观。新房和二手房的价格均较 4 月份以更快的速度下降。</p>
</div><p>Any signs of improvement in the property market remain limited to the largest cities, partly thanks to better earnings related to the global AI investment boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产市场的任何改善迹象仍限于最大城市，部分原因是全球人工智能投资繁荣带来的更好收益。</p>
</div><p>A breakdown of the industrial output data showed a widening divergence between advanced manufacturing and the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工业产出数据的细分显示出先进制造业与其他行业之间的分化加剧。</p>
</div><p>High-tech manufacturing soared 15 per cent in terms of value added in May from a year ago, accelerating from 13 per cent in April. The electronics industry saw a 17 per cent jump in output, thanks to booming demand for AI-related products and equipment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高科技制造业在 5 月份的增值方面同比飙升 15%，较 4 月份的 13% 加速。电子行业的产出增长了 17%，得益于对人工智能相关产品和设备的强劲需求。</p>
</div><p>The spurt of export growth this year has still been sufficient to keep China’s economy from cooling off too much. A global investment supercycle in artificial intelligence is driving up prices and demand for hardware made by the world’s manufacturing powerhouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年出口增长的激增仍足以防止中国经济过度降温。全球人工智能投资超级周期正在推高世界制造强国生产的硬件的价格和需求。</p>
</div><p>Outbound shipments soared in May at their fastest pace in three months. Chips and computers contributed to about half the growth in both exports and imports, with overseas sales of semiconductors soaring 111 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月份的对外出口以三个月以来最快的速度飙升。芯片和计算机约占出口和进口增长的一半，半导体的海外销售激增 111%。</p>
</div><p>Stabilising trade ties with the US, reinforced by President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, further bolster the outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与美国的贸易关系稳定，受到特朗普总统访问北京的进一步加强，进一步增强了前景。</p>
</div><p>Policymakers have appeared to be taking a wait-and-see approach in responding China’s two-speed growth, after efforts to coax consumers into spending delivered gains that proved fleeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者似乎在应对中国的双速增长时采取了观望态度，此前努力促使消费者消费的措施所带来的收益证明是短暂的。</p>
</div><p>The government dialled back public spending in March and April as bond sales decelerated. Authorities likely felt comfortable with GDP’s first-quarter performance — when it expanded 5 per cent — though economists also pointed to a potential lack of eligible projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府在 3 月和 4 月减少了公共支出，因为债券销售放缓。尽管经济学家也指出可能缺乏合格项目，但当局可能对 GDP 第一季度的表现感到满意——当时增长了 5%。</p>
</div><p>“Domestic demand still requires a boost from loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy,” said Allen Ding, chief economist at China Citic Bank International. “There’s a high chance of interest and reserve requirement ratio cuts and increased fiscal spending in the second half if oil prices fall back.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国中信银行国际首席经济学家丁爽表示：“国内需求仍然需要宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策来提振。如果油价回落，第二季度降息和降低存款准备金率以及增加财政支出的可能性很高。”</p>
</div>

Chinese economy stalls as spending, investment drop to Covid-era levels

- 中国消费支出和投资降至疫情以来低位，出口却强劲增长。  
- 5 月零售销售同比下降 0.6%，房价下跌加剧，固定资产投资萎缩 4.1%。  
- 高科技行业投资增长显著，但整体经济面临放缓风险需政策支持。

中国经济陷入停滞，消费和投资降至新冠疫情时期的水平