<p>摩根大通发布了一份研究报告，指出国务院关于境外投资的规定（即 “837 号文”）引发了投资者对内地居民是否有资格在香港购买房产的担忧。该银行与法律专家召开了电话会议，主要结论包括：内地居民向香港汇款用于购房从未被允许，未来也不太可能获得批准；然而，如果资金来源于境外，内地居民并不被禁止在香港购买房产；同时，“837 号文” 似乎并不是旨在限制内地居民在香港购房。</p>
<p>摩根大通估计，在香港的住宅市场中，约有 5% 至 10% 的交易（按价值计算占 10% 至 15%）来自非本地的内地买家。尽管更严格的监管可能会产生潜在影响，但如果买家能够证明其资金来源于境外，交易理论上将不会受到影响。因此，该银行预计这一单一因素不足以 derail 房地产市场的上行周期。不过，房地产行业仍面临两个逆风，即利率预期上升和恒生指数的疲软。</p>
<p>该银行预计香港房地产行业在短期内将保持区间震荡。在短期内，长实集团（01113.HK）-0.600 (-1.293%)  空头卖出 $47.96M；比例 37.788% 和信和置业（00083.HK）-0.240 (-2.158%)  空头卖出 $14.06M；比例 32.881% 预计将跑赢市场，而恒基地产（00012.HK）-0.220 (-0.824%)  空头卖出 $54.83M；比例 22.874% 和新世界发展（00017.HK）-0.170 (-2.276%)  空头卖出 $4.57M；比例 17.400% 可能会表现不佳。此外，该银行建议在股价疲软时逐步增持新鸿基地产（00016.HK）-2.000 (-1.711%)  空头卖出 $287.79M；比例 49.729%。(ad/u)(香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头卖出数据截至 2026-06-16 16:25。)</p>

新鸿基地产

长实集团

信和置业

摩根大通

JPMO

<p>摩根大通澄清，国务院的 “837 号” 规定并不针对购买香港物业的内地买家，因为离岸资金的购买仍然被允许。该行预计，由于利率上升和恒生指数疲软，香港房地产市场将保持区间震荡，但相信上升周期将继续。摩根大通推荐表现优异的长实集团和信和置业，同时建议在价格疲软时增持新鸿基地产</p>

<p>JPM released a research report stating that the State Council’s regulations on outbound investment (namely &#34;No. 837&#34;) have triggered investor concerns over whether mainland residents are eligible to purchase properties in Hong Kong. The bank held a conference call with legal experts, with key takeaways including: remittances from mainland residents to Hong Kong for the purpose of home purchases have never been permitted and are unlikely to be approved in the future; however, if the source of funds is offshore, mainland residents are not prohibited from buying properties in Hong Kong; meanwhile, &#34;No. 837&#34; does not appear to be aimed at curbing mainland residents from purchasing properties in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通发布了一份研究报告，指出国务院关于境外投资的规定（即 “837 号文”）引发了投资者对内地居民是否有资格在香港购买房产的担忧。该银行与法律专家召开了电话会议，主要结论包括：内地居民向香港汇款用于购房从未被允许，未来也不太可能获得批准；然而，如果资金来源于境外，内地居民并不被禁止在香港购买房产；同时，“837 号文” 似乎并不是旨在限制内地居民在香港购房。</p>
</div><p>JPM estimates that in Hong Kong’s residential market, around 5% to 10% of transactions (accounting for 10% to 15% by value) are from non-local mainland buyers. Although tighter regulations may have a potential impact, transactions would theoretically remain unaffected if buyers can prove their funds are sourced offshore. Therefore, the bank expects this single factor will not be sufficient to derail the property market’s upcycle. That said, the property sector is still facing two headwinds, namely rising interest rate expectations and weakness in the HSI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通估计，在香港的住宅市场中，约有 5% 至 10% 的交易（按价值计算占 10% 至 15%）来自非本地的内地买家。尽管更严格的监管可能会产生潜在影响，但如果买家能够证明其资金来源于境外，交易理论上将不会受到影响。因此，该银行预计这一单一因素不足以 derail 房地产市场的上行周期。不过，房地产行业仍面临两个逆风，即利率预期上升和恒生指数的疲软。</p>
</div><p>The bank expects the Hong Kong property sector to remain range-bound in the near term. In the short run, CK ASSET (01113.HK) -0.600 (-1.293%)  Short selling $47.96M; Ratio 37.788%  and SINO LAND (00083.HK) -0.240 (-2.158%)  Short selling $14.06M; Ratio 32.881%  are expected to Outperform the market, while HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) -0.220 (-0.824%)  Short selling $54.83M; Ratio 22.874%  and NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) -0.170 (-2.276%)  Short selling $4.57M; Ratio 17.400%  are likely to underperform. In addition, the bank recommends accumulating SHK PPT (00016.HK) -2.000 (-1.711%)  Short selling $287.79M; Ratio 49.729%  on share price weakness.(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-16 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行预计香港房地产行业在短期内将保持区间震荡。在短期内，长实集团（01113.HK）-0.600 (-1.293%)  空头卖出 $47.96M；比例 37.788% 和信和置业（00083.HK）-0.240 (-2.158%)  空头卖出 $14.06M；比例 32.881% 预计将跑赢市场，而恒基地产（00012.HK）-0.220 (-0.824%)  空头卖出 $54.83M；比例 22.874% 和新世界发展（00017.HK）-0.170 (-2.276%)  空头卖出 $4.57M；比例 17.400% 可能会表现不佳。此外，该银行建议在股价疲软时逐步增持新鸿基地产（00016.HK）-2.000 (-1.711%)  空头卖出 $287.79M；比例 49.729%。(ad/u)(香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。空头卖出数据截至 2026-06-16 16:25。)</p>
</div>

摩根大通表示，国务院第 837 号文件并不针对内地买家购买香港房产，预计长实集团和信和置业在短期内将表现出色