<h2>美国隔夜市场</h2>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.21%，报 7420.10 点，纳斯达克指数下跌 1.34%，报 26021.66 点，道琼斯指数下跌 507.12 点（-0.98%），报 51492.55 点，此前道琼斯指数在盘中创下新高。美联储如预期将利率维持在 3.50-3.75%，但点阵图传递出鹰派信号：2026 年利率中位数预测从 3 月的 3.4% 跃升至 3.8%，暗示今年将加息 25 个基点。18 名成员中有 9 人现在预计 2026 年至少会加息一次，6 人预计加息两次。个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预测从 2.7% 大幅上调至 3.6%。GDP 预测从 2.4% 下调至 2.2%。两年期国债收益率飙升 16 个基点，达到 4.21%，为一年多以来的最高水平。美元指数上涨约 1%，创下近一年来最佳表现。黄金下跌超过 2%。波动率指数（VIX）回升至 18 以上。强劲的 5 月零售销售和新屋开工数据进一步支持了鹰派立场。Principal Asset Management 的 Seema Shah 总结道：“Warsh 可能改变了外部形象，但本次 FOMC 的实质是鹰派的。”</p>
<h3>主要动向</h3>
<p><strong>Meta (META) -5%</strong> — Meta 下跌超过 5%，引领 “七大巨头” 下行，因加息预期对高估值科技股的打击最为严重。微软、Alphabet 和亚马逊也收跌。“七大巨头” 连续第三个交易日表现不及大盘，反映出资金从成长股转向价值股。</p>
<p><strong>SpaceX (SPCX) -5%</strong> — SpaceX 自首次公开募股以来首次下跌，跌幅接近 5%。该股仍比其 135 美元的 IPO 价格上涨约 40%。前纳斯达克首席执行官 Bob Greifeld 警告称，SpaceX“并未基于基本面交易”，这一担忧因美联储的鹰派信号而加剧。</p>
<p><strong>SOX +1.4%</strong> — 费城半导体指数逆势上涨 1.38%，成为唯一一个上涨的主要板块。与大盘的背离表明，芯片投资者正在超越利率噪音，布局伊朗协议对人工智能资本支出周期的通缩影响。</p>
<h2>Warsh 的首次 FOMC：有什么变化</h2>
<p>Warsh 彻底改革了美联储的沟通框架。政策声明缩减至约 130 个字——不到传统长度的一半——取消了自 2024 年以来一直存在的前瞻指引和宽松偏向。他拒绝提交自己的点阵图，表明对这一工具的怀疑。他启动了五个工作组，审查美联储的沟通、资产负债表、数据来源、生产力和通胀驱动因素。他强调，美联储对 2% 通胀的承诺是 “强烈、一致且明确的”。高盛表示，“避免加息的路径很窄。” NPR 指出，这是自 3 月以来最剧烈的转变，当时中位数成员预测将降息。</p>
<h2>新加坡交易所预览</h2>
<p>STI 指数最近接近 5070 点。DBS 接近 62.18 新元，UOB 接近 37.91 新元。鹰派的 FOMC 对新加坡来说是把双刃剑：更高的美国利率支持银行净利差，但更强的美元和全球流动性收紧则对亚洲股市产生压力。SOX 的韧性表明芯片交易并未结束，这对 Venture Corp 是个利好。明天（周五）是解放日——美国市场休市，伊朗协议签署将在瑞士进行。</p>
<h2>亚洲盘前</h2>
<p>所有三大美国指数在收盘时均下跌超过 1%，没有出现买入反弹的迹象。两年期国债收益率为 4.21%，美元达到一年高点，为亚洲风险资产设定了挑战性的背景。黄金下跌 2% 表明市场正在以有意义的方式重新定价更长时间的高利率。</p>
<h2>今日日历</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>事件</th>
<th>时间（东部时间）</th>
<th>时间（UTC+8）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>初请失业金</td>
<td>上午 8:30</td>
<td>下午 8:30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>6 月 19 日星期五：<strong>美国市场休市（解放日）</strong>。伊朗协议签署仪式将在瑞士举行。</p>
<h2>还有一件事</h2>
<p>Warsh 维持利率但重写了游戏规则。130 字的声明。没有个人点。五个工作组。旧的美联储给你一条路线图；Warsh 给你一个指南针，让你自己去找方向。市场厌恶这种不确定性——股票下跌，债券抛售，黄金暴跌，美元飙升。但实质是明确的：18 名成员中有 9 人希望加息，PCE 预测为 3.6%，宽松偏向消失。周五的伊朗协议签署可能会在一夜之间改变这一计算——如果油价保持在 81 美元，整体通胀将迅速放缓，加息的理由将减弱。但 Warsh 刚刚告诉你，美联储不再负责引导市场。数据将决定一切。下一个数据点是 7 月的 CPI。</p>
<p><em>本简报仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。</em></p>

标普 500 指数

道琼斯指数

纳斯达克综合指数

<p>美国隔夜市场标普 500 指数下跌 1.21%，报 7420.10 点，纳斯达克指数下跌 1.34%，报 26021.66 点，道琼斯指数下跌 507.12 点（-0.98%），报 51492.55 点，此前道琼斯指数在盘中创下新的历史高点。美联储如预期将利率维持在 3.50%-3.75% 不变，但点阵图传递出鹰派震撼：2026 年利率中位数预测从 3 月的 3.4% 跃升至 3.8%，暗示今年将加息 25 个基点</p>

<h2>US Overnight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美国隔夜市场</h2>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,420.10, the Nasdaq dropped 1.34% to 26,021.66, and the Dow shed 507.12 points (-0.98%) to 51,492.55 after the Dow had hit a fresh intraday all-time high earlier in the session. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected, but the dot plot delivered a hawkish shock: the median 2026 rate projection jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, implying a 25 basis point hike this year. Nine of 18 members now see at least one hike in 2026, with six projecting two hikes. The PCE inflation forecast was raised sharply to 3.6% from 2.7%. GDP was revised down to 2.2% from 2.4%. The two-year yield surged 16 basis points to 4.21%, its highest in over a year. The dollar index rose roughly 1%, its best day in almost a year. Gold fell over 2%. The VIX climbed back above 18. Strong May retail sales and housing starts data further supported the hawkish case. Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah summed it up: &#34;Warsh may have reshaped the optics, but the substance of this FOMC is hawkish.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数下跌 1.21%，报 7420.10 点，纳斯达克指数下跌 1.34%，报 26021.66 点，道琼斯指数下跌 507.12 点（-0.98%），报 51492.55 点，此前道琼斯指数在盘中创下新高。美联储如预期将利率维持在 3.50-3.75%，但点阵图传递出鹰派信号：2026 年利率中位数预测从 3 月的 3.4% 跃升至 3.8%，暗示今年将加息 25 个基点。18 名成员中有 9 人现在预计 2026 年至少会加息一次，6 人预计加息两次。个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预测从 2.7% 大幅上调至 3.6%。GDP 预测从 2.4% 下调至 2.2%。两年期国债收益率飙升 16 个基点，达到 4.21%，为一年多以来的最高水平。美元指数上涨约 1%，创下近一年来最佳表现。黄金下跌超过 2%。波动率指数（VIX）回升至 18 以上。强劲的 5 月零售销售和新屋开工数据进一步支持了鹰派立场。Principal Asset Management 的 Seema Shah 总结道：“Warsh 可能改变了外部形象，但本次 FOMC 的实质是鹰派的。”</p>
</div><h3>Key Movers</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>主要动向</h3>
</div><p><strong>Meta (META) -5%</strong> — Meta fell over 5%, leading the Magnificent Seven lower as rising rate expectations hit high-multiple tech hardest. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon also closed in the red. The Mag 7 underperformed the broad market for the third session in a row, reflecting the rotation away from growth into value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Meta (META) -5%</strong> — Meta 下跌超过 5%，引领 “七大巨头” 下行，因加息预期对高估值科技股的打击最为严重。微软、Alphabet 和亚马逊也收跌。“七大巨头” 连续第三个交易日表现不及大盘，反映出资金从成长股转向价值股。</p>
</div><p><strong>SpaceX (SPCX) -5%</strong> — SpaceX recorded its first decline since its IPO debut, falling nearly 5%. The stock remains up roughly 40% from its $135 IPO price. Former Nasdaq chief Bob Greifeld warned that SpaceX is &#34;not trading on fundamentals,&#34; a concern amplified by the hawkish Fed signal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SpaceX (SPCX) -5%</strong> — SpaceX 自首次公开募股以来首次下跌，跌幅接近 5%。该股仍比其 135 美元的 IPO 价格上涨约 40%。前纳斯达克首席执行官 Bob Greifeld 警告称，SpaceX“并未基于基本面交易”，这一担忧因美联储的鹰派信号而加剧。</p>
</div><p><strong>SOX +1.4%</strong> — The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the selloff with a 1.38% gain, the only major sector in the green. The divergence from the broader market suggests chip investors are looking past the rate noise and positioning for the Iran deal's disinflationary impact on the AI capex cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>SOX +1.4%</strong> — 费城半导体指数逆势上涨 1.38%，成为唯一一个上涨的主要板块。与大盘的背离表明，芯片投资者正在超越利率噪音，布局伊朗协议对人工智能资本支出周期的通缩影响。</p>
</div><h2>Warsh's First FOMC: What Changed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warsh 的首次 FOMC：有什么变化</h2>
</div><p>Warsh overhauled the Fed's communication framework. The policy statement was cut to roughly 130 words — less than half the traditional length — removing forward guidance and the easing bias that had been in place since 2024. He declined to submit his own dot for the dot plot, signaling skepticism toward the tool. He launched five task forces to review Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity, and the drivers of inflation. He emphasized that the Fed's commitment to 2% inflation is &#34;strong, unanimous, and unambiguous.&#34; Goldman Sachs said the &#34;path to avoiding hikes is narrow.&#34; NPR noted this is the sharpest turnaround since March, when the median member was projecting a cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warsh 彻底改革了美联储的沟通框架。政策声明缩减至约 130 个字——不到传统长度的一半——取消了自 2024 年以来一直存在的前瞻指引和宽松偏向。他拒绝提交自己的点阵图，表明对这一工具的怀疑。他启动了五个工作组，审查美联储的沟通、资产负债表、数据来源、生产力和通胀驱动因素。他强调，美联储对 2% 通胀的承诺是 “强烈、一致且明确的”。高盛表示，“避免加息的路径很窄。” NPR 指出，这是自 3 月以来最剧烈的转变，当时中位数成员预测将降息。</p>
</div><h2>SGX Preview</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新加坡交易所预览</h2>
</div><p>The STI was near 5,070 recently. DBS is near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The hawkish FOMC is a double-edged sword for Singapore: higher US rates support bank net interest margins, but a stronger dollar and tighter global liquidity weigh on Asian equities broadly. The SOX's resilience suggests the chip trade is not dead, which is positive for Venture Corp. Tomorrow (Friday) is Juneteenth — US markets closed, Iran deal signing in Switzerland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>STI 指数最近接近 5070 点。DBS 接近 62.18 新元，UOB 接近 37.91 新元。鹰派的 FOMC 对新加坡来说是把双刃剑：更高的美国利率支持银行净利差，但更强的美元和全球流动性收紧则对亚洲股市产生压力。SOX 的韧性表明芯片交易并未结束，这对 Venture Corp 是个利好。明天（周五）是解放日——美国市场休市，伊朗协议签署将在瑞士进行。</p>
</div><h2>Asia Pre-Market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚洲盘前</h2>
</div><p>All three US indexes fell over 1% into the close with no sign of dip-buying. The 2Y yield at 4.21% and dollar at a one-year high set a challenging backdrop for Asian risk assets. Gold's 2% drop signals the market is repricing for higher-for-longer in a meaningful way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有三大美国指数在收盘时均下跌超过 1%，没有出现买入反弹的迹象。两年期国债收益率为 4.21%，美元达到一年高点，为亚洲风险资产设定了挑战性的背景。黄金下跌 2% 表明市场正在以有意义的方式重新定价更长时间的高利率。</p>
</div><h2>Today's Calendar</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>今日日历</h2>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Event</th>
<th>Time (ET)</th>
<th>Time (UTC+8)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Initial Jobless Claims</td>
<td>8:30 AM</td>
<td>8:30 PM</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>事件</th>
<th>时间（东部时间）</th>
<th>时间（UTC+8）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>初请失业金</td>
<td>上午 8:30</td>
<td>下午 8:30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Friday June 19: <strong>US markets closed (Juneteenth)</strong>. Iran deal signing ceremony in Switzerland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6 月 19 日星期五：<strong>美国市场休市（解放日）</strong>。伊朗协议签署仪式将在瑞士举行。</p>
</div><h2>One More Thing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>还有一件事</h2>
</div><p>Warsh held rates but rewrote the playbook. A 130-word statement. No personal dot. Five task forces. The old Fed gave you a roadmap; Warsh gives you a compass and says figure it out. The market hated the uncertainty — stocks fell, bonds sold off, gold crashed, the dollar surged. But the substance is clear: 9 of 18 members want to hike, PCE forecast is 3.6%, and the easing bias is gone. The Iran deal signing Friday could change this calculus overnight — if oil stays at $81, headline inflation decelerates fast and the hike case weakens. But Warsh just told you the Fed is no longer in the business of guiding markets. Data will decide. And the next data point is July's CPI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warsh 维持利率但重写了游戏规则。130 字的声明。没有个人点。五个工作组。旧的美联储给你一条路线图；Warsh 给你一个指南针，让你自己去找方向。市场厌恶这种不确定性——股票下跌，债券抛售，黄金暴跌，美元飙升。但实质是明确的：18 名成员中有 9 人希望加息，PCE 预测为 3.6%，宽松偏向消失。周五的伊朗协议签署可能会在一夜之间改变这一计算——如果油价保持在 81 美元，整体通胀将迅速放缓，加息的理由将减弱。但 Warsh 刚刚告诉你，美联储不再负责引导市场。数据将决定一切。下一个数据点是 7 月的 CPI。</p>
</div><p><em>This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>本简报仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议。</em></p>
</div>

SG Morning Brief | Warsh Holds Rates but Dot Plot Signals Hike, All Three Indexes Fall Over 1%

- 美国主要股指下跌，标普 500 跌 1.21%，纳斯达克跌 1.34%。
- 美联储维持利率不变，但 2026 年利率预期上调，引发市场波动。
- 亚洲风险资产面临压力，黄金下跌超 2%。

长湾资讯

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

组合标普 500 ETF - SPDR

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - Direxion

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空标普 500 ETF - Direxion

3 倍做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

Neos S&P 500 High Income ETF

股票溢价收益 ETF - JPMorgan Chase

标普 500 买入指数 ETF

道琼斯指数 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

做空道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空道指 30 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空道琼斯 30 指数 ETF - ProShares

纳斯达克综合指数 ETF - Fidelity

纳指 100 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克 100 平均加权指数 ETF - First Trust

纳指 100 加权指数 ETF - Direxion

3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - ProShares

1 倍做空纳斯达克 100 指数 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空纳指 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空纳斯达克指数 ETF - ProShares

微软

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

亚马逊

SpaceX

高盛

富时新加坡海峡时报指数

星展集团控股

大华银行

创业公司

标普 500 波动率指数

GS Hldg R

大华银行(ADR)

SG 晨报 | Warsh 维持利率不变，但点阵图暗示加息，三大指数均下跌超过 1%