<p>股市正处于历史性的牛市之中。即使伊朗发生战争和通货膨胀飙升，也未能显著减缓 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 的上涨。这两个指数都表现出惊人的韧性，并继续在上个月创下的历史高点附近交易。</p>
<p>与此同时，Kevin Warsh 接管了美联储，并明确了他的议程，如他今年早些时候在参议院听证会上所述。尽管中央银行在本周的会议上维持利率不变，但减少美联储资产负债表的推动可能会在金融市场引发重大警报。以下是当前的情况，以及未来美联储的决策可能如何影响市场。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzQ4Mzgvd2hpdGUtaG91c2Uta2V2aW4td2Fyc2gtZG9uYWxkLXRydW1wLXBvZGl1bS1mbGFncy5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzQ4Mzgvd2hpdGUtaG91c2Uta2V2aW4td2Fyc2gtZG9uYWxkLXRydW1wLXBvZGl1bS1mbGFncy5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>官方白宫照片，由 Daniel Torok 拍摄。</p>
<h2>一个关键比率刚刚发出了重大警告信号</h2>
<p>许多投资者都知道在投资时需要关注估值。以过高的价格投资于一家公司，无论管理层表现得多么出色，长期内都很难产生强劲的股票回报。然而，目前许多标普 500 指数成分股的估值都很高。该指数的整体市盈率约为 22 倍预期。</p>
<p>股票并不是唯一的投资选择。投资者还必须将股票投资与其他投资的潜在回报进行权衡。例如，投资者可以购买 10 年期国债，并获得几乎保证的回报。（如果美国政府违约，世界将面临严重问题。）这就是为什么国债收益率通常被称为 “无风险利率”。</p>
<p>将股票的收益率（市盈率的倒数）与 10 年期国债的收益率进行比较，得出一个称为股权风险溢价的指标。目前，标普 500 指数的市盈率约为 22 倍，10 年期国债收益率为 4.45%，股权风险溢价接近于零。</p>
<p>几年前，股权风险溢价曾短暂触及零，但上一次长期处于负值区间是在互联网泡沫破裂前的时期。这应该是对投资者的重大警告信号，而 Warsh 可能成为推动风险溢价进入负值区间的催化剂。</p>
<h2>Warsh 可能如何影响市场</h2>
<p>Warsh 对以往中央银行决策的最大批评之一是，美联储在债券市场的活动过于频繁。通过量化宽松，美联储曾将国债和抵押贷款支持证券的资产负债表规模推高至 9 万亿美元。虽然现在这一数字降至 6.7 万亿美元，但 Warsh 仍然认为这远远不合理。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/435b9c160ffedf253be97d1719ad0d73.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/435b9c160ffedf253be97d1719ad0d73.png"/></p>
<p>美国所有美联储银行持有的总资产数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>在 Warsh 的领导下，美联储可能会出售部分资产或让一些债券到期而不再购买更多。大型市场参与者出售债券的净效应是价格会下跌。当价格下跌时，收益率会上升。</p>
<p>量化宽松和紧缩对长期债券收益率的影响大于短期利率。短期利率与美联储设定的银行间隔夜借贷利率关系更为密切。因此，如果 Warsh 能够实施其货币政策议程的这一部分，投资者可能会看到无风险利率从这里上升。</p>
<p>对股票投资者的后果是，如果股票价格或盈利预期没有变化，股权风险溢价可能会漂移到负值区间。</p>
<h2>一个警报，但并不是放弃股票的信号</h2>
<p>负的股权风险溢价并不一定意味着股票在未来会表现不如债券。这是因为债券购买的收益率不会改变。你购买债券并在每次利息支付中收取相同的金额。另一方面，投资者通常购买股票是希望基础业务能够从一年到下一年产生更多的每股收益。</p>
<p>目前，投资者对进一步盈利增长的前景非常乐观。分析师预计 2026 年标普 500 指数的整体盈利增长为 23.2%，2027 年为 16.2%。这远高于历史平均水平的约 7%。</p>
<p>即使在互联网泡沫破裂前，股权风险溢价也在多年内保持负值，直到市场达到顶峰。事实上，直到盈利能力恶化的迹象出现后，市场才开始重新评估相对于无风险利率的股权定价。</p>
<p>也就是说，为一家优质公司支付溢价价格是值得的，如果管理层能够执行业务的潜力。目前，投资者需要对高估值保持谨慎，尤其是相对于国债收益率，但这不应阻止他们以合理价格购买高质量的股票。</p>

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>金融市场因标普 500 估值过高和接近零的股票风险溢价而发出警报，这让人想起了互联网泡沫时代。新任美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 可能会通过减少中央银行的资产负债表来加剧这一情况，这可能会推高长期国债收益率。尽管这可能使风险溢价变为负值，分析师对未来的盈利增长仍持乐观态度，建议谨慎对待，而不是放弃股票</p>

<p>The stock market is in the midst of a historic bull run. Even a war in Iran and spiking inflation have failed to significantly slow down the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>. Both have shown remarkable resilience and continue to trade within a few percentage points of their all-time highs recorded last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市正处于历史性的牛市之中。即使伊朗发生战争和通货膨胀飙升，也未能显著减缓 <strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 的上涨。这两个指数都表现出惊人的韧性，并继续在上个月创下的历史高点附近交易。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh took the helm of the Federal Reserve with a clear agenda, as outlined in his Senate hearing earlier this year. While the central bank left interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, a push to reduce the Fed's balance sheet could set off significant alarm bells in financial markets. Here's what's going on and how future Federal Reserve decisions could impact the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Kevin Warsh 接管了美联储，并明确了他的议程，如他今年早些时候在参议院听证会上所述。尽管中央银行在本周的会议上维持利率不变，但减少美联储资产负债表的推动可能会在金融市场引发重大警报。以下是当前的情况，以及未来美联储的决策可能如何影响市场。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzQ4Mzgvd2hpdGUtaG91c2Uta2V2aW4td2Fyc2gtZG9uYWxkLXRydW1wLXBvZGl1bS1mbGFncy5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F874838%2Fwhite-house-kevin-warsh-donald-trump-podium-flags.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>官方白宫照片，由 Daniel Torok 拍摄。</p>
</div><h2>A key ratio just flashed a big warning sign</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个关键比率刚刚发出了重大警告信号</h2>
</div><p>Many investors are well aware they need to be mindful of valuations when investing. Invest in a company at too high a price, and it doesn't matter how spectacularly management performs; it'll be hard to produce very strong stock returns over the long run. Right now, however, many S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at high valuations. The index's aggregate P/E ratio is around 22 times expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多投资者都知道在投资时需要关注估值。以过高的价格投资于一家公司，无论管理层表现得多么出色，长期内都很难产生强劲的股票回报。然而，目前许多标普 500 指数成分股的估值都很高。该指数的整体市盈率约为 22 倍预期。</p>
</div><p>Stocks aren't the only investment option on the block. Investors must also weigh equity investments against potential returns from other investments. For example, investors can buy 10-year Treasury bonds and receive a practically guaranteed return. (If the U.S. government defaults on its debt, the world has some serious problems.) That's why the yield on Treasury notes is often referred to as the &#34;risk-free rate.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票并不是唯一的投资选择。投资者还必须将股票投资与其他投资的潜在回报进行权衡。例如，投资者可以购买 10 年期国债，并获得几乎保证的回报。（如果美国政府违约，世界将面临严重问题。）这就是为什么国债收益率通常被称为 “无风险利率”。</p>
</div><p>Comparing the earnings yield on stocks (the inverse of the P/E ratio) to the yield on 10-year Treasuries yields a metric called the equity risk premium. Right now, with the S&amp;P 500 trading around 22 times earnings and 10-year yields at 4.45%, the equity risk premium is close to zero.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将股票的收益率（市盈率的倒数）与 10 年期国债的收益率进行比较，得出一个称为股权风险溢价的指标。目前，标普 500 指数的市盈率约为 22 倍，10 年期国债收益率为 4.45%，股权风险溢价接近于零。</p>
</div><p>The equity risk premium briefly touched zero a couple of years ago, but the last time it fell into negative territory for an extended period was in the run-up to the dot-com bubble bursting. That should be a major warning signal for investors, and Warsh could be the catalyst to push the risk premium into negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几年前，股权风险溢价曾短暂触及零，但上一次长期处于负值区间是在互联网泡沫破裂前的时期。这应该是对投资者的重大警告信号，而 Warsh 可能成为推动风险溢价进入负值区间的催化剂。</p>
</div><h2>How Warsh could influence the markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Warsh 可能如何影响市场</h2>
</div><p>One of Warsh's biggest criticisms of previous central bank decisions is that the Fed became too active in the bond market. Through quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve drove up the amount of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities on its balance sheet to $9 trillion at one point. While that now sits at $6.7 trillion, Warsh still thinks that's way out of line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warsh 对以往中央银行决策的最大批评之一是，美联储在债券市场的活动过于频繁。通过量化宽松，美联储曾将国债和抵押贷款支持证券的资产负债表规模推高至 9 万亿美元。虽然现在这一数字降至 6.7 万亿美元，但 Warsh 仍然认为这远远不合理。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/435b9c160ffedf253be97d1719ad0d73.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/435b9c160ffedf253be97d1719ad0d73.png"/></p>
<p>US Total Assets Held by All Federal Reserve Banks data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国所有美联储银行持有的总资产数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Under Warsh, the Fed could sell some of its assets or let some bonds mature without buying more. The net effect of a large market participant selling bonds is that prices will fall. And when prices fall, yields go up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Warsh 的领导下，美联储可能会出售部分资产或让一些债券到期而不再购买更多。大型市场参与者出售债券的净效应是价格会下跌。当价格下跌时，收益率会上升。</p>
</div><p>Quantitative easing and tightening have a larger impact on long-term bond yields than short-term rates. Short-term rates are more closely tied to the Fed funds rate, the rate set by the Fed for overnight borrowing between banks. So, if Warsh can implement that part of his monetary policy agenda, investors could see the risk-free rate rise from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量化宽松和紧缩对长期债券收益率的影响大于短期利率。短期利率与美联储设定的银行间隔夜借贷利率关系更为密切。因此，如果 Warsh 能够实施其货币政策议程的这一部分，投资者可能会看到无风险利率从这里上升。</p>
</div><p>The consequence for equity investors is that without a change in stock prices or earnings expectations, the equity risk premium could drift into negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对股票投资者的后果是，如果股票价格或盈利预期没有变化，股权风险溢价可能会漂移到负值区间。</p>
</div><h2>An alarm bell, but not a sign to abandon stocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一个警报，但并不是放弃股票的信号</h2>
</div><p>A negative equity risk premium doesn't necessarily mean stocks will underperform bonds going forward. That's because the yield on a bond purchase doesn't change. You buy the bond and collect the same amount with every interest payment. On the other hand, investors typically buy stocks with the expectation that the underlying business will generate more earnings per share from one year to the next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>负的股权风险溢价并不一定意味着股票在未来会表现不如债券。这是因为债券购买的收益率不会改变。你购买债券并在每次利息支付中收取相同的金额。另一方面，投资者通常购买股票是希望基础业务能够从一年到下一年产生更多的每股收益。</p>
</div><p>Investors are very optimistic about the prospects for further earnings growth right now. Analysts are projecting aggregate S&amp;P 500 earnings growth of 23.2% for 2026 and 16.2% for 2027. That's well above the historic average of around 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投资者对进一步盈利增长的前景非常乐观。分析师预计 2026 年标普 500 指数的整体盈利增长为 23.2%，2027 年为 16.2%。这远高于历史平均水平的约 7%。</p>
</div><p>Even in the run-up to the dot-com bubble, the equity risk premium remained negative for years before the market peaked. Indeed, it wasn't until well after signs of deteriorating earnings power emerged that the market began reevaluating equity pricing relative to the risk-free rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在互联网泡沫破裂前，股权风险溢价也在多年内保持负值，直到市场达到顶峰。事实上，直到盈利能力恶化的迹象出现后，市场才开始重新评估相对于无风险利率的股权定价。</p>
</div><p>That is to say, paying a premium price for a premium company can be worthwhile if management executes on the business's potential. Right now, investors need to be cautious about high valuations, especially relative to Treasury yields, but that shouldn't stop them from buying high-quality stocks at a fair price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，为一家优质公司支付溢价价格是值得的，如果管理层能够执行业务的潜力。目前，投资者需要对高估值保持谨慎，尤其是相对于国债收益率，但这不应阻止他们以合理价格购买高质量的股票。</p>
</div>

The Financial Markets Are Flashing an Alarm Right Now, and New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh Could Make Things Worse

- 美国股市正经历历史性的牛市，S&P 500 和纳斯达克仍接近历史高点。  
- Kevin Warsh 负责美联储，推动减少资产负债表，可能影响市场。  
- 当前 S&P 500 的市盈率接近 22，风险溢价接近零，需谨慎高估值投资。

Motley Fool

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

组合标普 500 ETF - SPDR

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - Direxion

3 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做多标普 500 ETF - ProShares

做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空标普 500 ETF - Direxion

3 倍做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空标普 500 ETF - ProShares

Neos S&P 500 High Income ETF

股票溢价收益 ETF - JPMorgan Chase

标普 500 买入指数 ETF

纳斯达克综合指数

金融市场目前正在发出警报，而新任美联储主席凯文·沃什可能会加剧这种情况