<p>穆迪表示，中国证券监督管理委员会与其他七个部门正在加强对非法跨境证券、期货和基金业务活动的监管。最新的监管措施主要针对未经监管批准而向大陆投资者招揽的离岸在线经纪商。对香港特别行政区评级证券公司和银行的信用影响适中，而对评级保险公司的影响则更为有限。然而，如果政策进一步变化，影响可能会变得更加显著。</p>
<p>在评级的香港证券公司中，中国证券公司的子公司将面临适度的业务和收入增长影响，因为它们已经停止为大陆客户开设新的经纪账户。这些公司已遵守 2023 年出台的规定，该规定限制仅持有大陆身份证的个人在中国证券公司的香港子公司开设新的经纪账户。2023 年的监管变化已经减缓了新业务的增长，表明进一步政策收紧的额外下行空间有限。重要的是，合规渠道如合格境内机构投资者（QDII）计划、南向股票通和跨境理财通（WMC）仍未受到影响。</p>
<p>对于在香港的中国银行评级证券子公司而言，经纪业务占大多数公司的总收入不到 15%，限制了整体影响。其他收入来源，包括投资银行和自营投资，可以缓冲来自大陆客户的经纪收入下降。</p>
<p>关于现有账户的处理仍然存在不确定性。目前尚不清楚证券公司是否需要逐步减少在 2023 年监管变化之前为大陆客户开设的账户中的管理资产（AUM）。这种模糊性可能导致潜在的 AUM 减少，并影响业务可见性，促使行业采取更为谨慎的运营方式。</p>
<p>评级的香港银行可能会因对跨境投资账户的更严格控制而在财富管理业务（WMB）上面临适度和间接的影响。这是因为与大陆相关的财富管理活动在既定的监管框架内运作，银行受益于广泛的客户基础和多元化的 WMB 收入来源。</p>
<p>影响在某些客户群体和与经纪及交易相关的收入来源中相对更为明显。对于资产相对有限的大陆中产客户，主要的传导渠道可能是账户开设和资金转移的障碍加大，包括零售客户必须亲自前往香港开设和激活投资账户。这可能导致银行的新客户增长放缓，以及从账户开设到 AUM 流入的转化减弱。这也可能抑制以交易为导向的客户活动，即依赖客户使用投资账户进行交易和维持活跃资金余额的业务。这可能对银行的经纪相关手续费收入造成压力，而这在 2024 年至 2025 年间一直是许多香港银行手续费增长的关键驱动因素。然而，这些影响可能会被来自高净值客户群体和不太依赖交易活动的收入来源的更强韧的贡献所抵消。</p>
<p>政策支持的渠道如跨境理财通应保持不受影响，并继续支持账户开设、资金流入和手续费收入。此外，拥有成熟离岸财富的客户在资金要求上受到的限制较小，应该仍然是相对稳定的 AUM 流入来源。银行保险将继续是重要的手续费收入来源，并预计会更加稳健。</p>
<p>穆迪预计短期影响可控，但警告称进一步的政策变化将产生更显著的后果。近年来，与大陆相关的财富管理业务一直是香港银行的主要增长驱动力。进一步收紧可能会减缓增长势头，并将业务重点转向高质量的离岸资金客户和既定的跨境投资渠道。</p>
<p>评级的香港保险公司可能会因资本管制的进一步收紧而面临有限的直接影响，因为向大陆客户销售保险产品是在更成熟的监管框架下进行的。“亲自” 要求是一个关键特征，即针对大陆客户的销售和承保必须在香港进行，资金主要来自离岸银行账户。</p>
<p>此外，自 2016 年以来，香港的保险行业经历了多轮监管收紧，包括对支付方式的限制和信用卡交易的上限。因此，保险公司和中介在很大程度上已远离与非法资金渠道相关的业务。</p>
<p>然而，如果对跨境销售实施更严格的资本管制，可能会出现下行风险。如果监管机构发现通过非法渠道融资的案例，可能会引入此类措施。跨境销售一直是香港保险公司的主要增长驱动力。穆迪估计，这类业务约占行业新业务保费的 40%，领先企业的比例上升至 50%。进一步收紧资本管制或任何政策变化可能会减缓香港的新业务增长，并可能增加现有跨境保单的退保风险。 (ad/da)</p>

<p>穆迪表示，中国对非法跨境证券活动的打击对评级的香港金融机构产生了中等影响。虽然中国证券公司的子公司由于 2023 年的现有限制面临收入增长的制约，但由于收入来源多样化和成熟的监管框架，银行和保险公司受到的直接影响有限。合规渠道如股票通仍未受到影响。穆迪警告称，进一步的政策收紧可能会显著减缓增长势头</p>

<p>Moody's stated that the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with seven other ministries, is strengthening oversight of illegal cross-border securities, futures and fund business activities. The latest regulatory measures mainly target offshore online brokers that solicit mainland investors without regulatory approval. The credit impact on rated securities firms and banks in the Hong Kong SAR is moderate, while the impact on rated insurers is even more limited. However, should policies change further, the impact could become more significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪表示，中国证券监督管理委员会与其他七个部门正在加强对非法跨境证券、期货和基金业务活动的监管。最新的监管措施主要针对未经监管批准而向大陆投资者招揽的离岸在线经纪商。对香港特别行政区评级证券公司和银行的信用影响适中，而对评级保险公司的影响则更为有限。然而，如果政策进一步变化，影响可能会变得更加显著。</p>
</div><p>Among rated Hong Kong securities firms, subsidiaries of Chinese securities companies will face a moderate impact on business and revenue growth, as they have already stopped opening new brokerage accounts for mainland clients. These companies have complied with regulations introduced in 2023 that restrict individuals holding only mainland identity documents from opening new brokerage accounts with Hong Kong subsidiaries of Chinese securities firms. The 2023 regulatory changes have already slowed new business growth, suggesting limited additional downside from further policy tightening. Importantly, compliant channels such as the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme, Southbound Stock Connect and the Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect (WMC) remain unaffected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在评级的香港证券公司中，中国证券公司的子公司将面临适度的业务和收入增长影响，因为它们已经停止为大陆客户开设新的经纪账户。这些公司已遵守 2023 年出台的规定，该规定限制仅持有大陆身份证的个人在中国证券公司的香港子公司开设新的经纪账户。2023 年的监管变化已经减缓了新业务的增长，表明进一步政策收紧的额外下行空间有限。重要的是，合规渠道如合格境内机构投资者（QDII）计划、南向股票通和跨境理财通（WMC）仍未受到影响。</p>
</div><p>For rated securities subsidiaries of Chinese banks in Hong Kong, brokerage business accounts for less than 15% of total revenue for most players, limiting the overall impact. Other income sources - including investment banking and proprietary investment - can buffer declines in brokerage income from mainland clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于在香港的中国银行评级证券子公司而言，经纪业务占大多数公司的总收入不到 15%，限制了整体影响。其他收入来源，包括投资银行和自营投资，可以缓冲来自大陆客户的经纪收入下降。</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty remains regarding the treatment of existing accounts. It is unclear whether securities firms will be required to gradually reduce assets under management (AUM) in accounts opened for mainland clients prior to the 2023 regulatory changes. Such ambiguity could lead to potential AUM reductions and affect business visibility, prompting the industry to adopt a more cautious operating approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于现有账户的处理仍然存在不确定性。目前尚不清楚证券公司是否需要逐步减少在 2023 年监管变化之前为大陆客户开设的账户中的管理资产（AUM）。这种模糊性可能导致潜在的 AUM 减少，并影响业务可见性，促使行业采取更为谨慎的运营方式。</p>
</div><p>Rated Hong Kong banks may face moderate and indirect impacts on their wealth management business (WMB) due to tighter controls on cross-border investment accounts. This is because mainland-related wealth management activities operate within established regulatory frameworks, and banks benefit from broad customer bases and diversified WMB income streams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评级的香港银行可能会因对跨境投资账户的更严格控制而在财富管理业务（WMB）上面临适度和间接的影响。这是因为与大陆相关的财富管理活动在既定的监管框架内运作，银行受益于广泛的客户基础和多元化的 WMB 收入来源。</p>
</div><p>The impact is relatively more visible in certain client segments and brokerage- and trading-related revenue streams. For mass affluent mainland clients with relatively limited offshore assets, the main transmission channel could be greater obstacles in account opening and fund transfers, including retail customers who must travel to Hong Kong in person to open and activate investment accounts. This may result in some slowdown in new customer growth for banks and weaker conversion from account opening to AUM inflows. It may also dampen trading-oriented client activity, namely businesses that rely on clients using investment accounts for transactions and maintaining active fund balances. This could weigh on banks’ brokerage-related fee income, which had been a key driver of fee growth for many Hong Kong banks between 2024 and 2025. Nevertheless, such impacts are likely to be offset by more resilient contributions from higher-wealth client segments and income sources less dependent on trading activities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响在某些客户群体和与经纪及交易相关的收入来源中相对更为明显。对于资产相对有限的大陆中产客户，主要的传导渠道可能是账户开设和资金转移的障碍加大，包括零售客户必须亲自前往香港开设和激活投资账户。这可能导致银行的新客户增长放缓，以及从账户开设到 AUM 流入的转化减弱。这也可能抑制以交易为导向的客户活动，即依赖客户使用投资账户进行交易和维持活跃资金余额的业务。这可能对银行的经纪相关手续费收入造成压力，而这在 2024 年至 2025 年间一直是许多香港银行手续费增长的关键驱动因素。然而，这些影响可能会被来自高净值客户群体和不太依赖交易活动的收入来源的更强韧的贡献所抵消。</p>
</div><p>Policy-supported channels such as the Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect should remain unaffected and continue to support account openings, fund inflows and fee income. In addition, clients with established offshore wealth are less constrained by funding requirements and should remain a relatively stable source of AUM inflows. Bancassurance will continue to be an important source of fee income and is expected to be more resilient.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策支持的渠道如跨境理财通应保持不受影响，并继续支持账户开设、资金流入和手续费收入。此外，拥有成熟离岸财富的客户在资金要求上受到的限制较小，应该仍然是相对稳定的 AUM 流入来源。银行保险将继续是重要的手续费收入来源，并预计会更加稳健。</p>
</div><p>Moody's expects the short-term impact to be manageable, but warns that further policy changes would have more significant consequences. In recent years, mainland-related WMB has been a key growth driver for Hong Kong banks. Further tightening could slow growth momentum and shift business focus toward higher-quality offshore funding clients and established cross-border investment channels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>穆迪预计短期影响可控，但警告称进一步的政策变化将产生更显著的后果。近年来，与大陆相关的财富管理业务一直是香港银行的主要增长驱动力。进一步收紧可能会减缓增长势头，并将业务重点转向高质量的离岸资金客户和既定的跨境投资渠道。</p>
</div><p>Rated Hong Kong insurers may face limited direct impact from further tightening of capital controls, as the sale of insurance products to mainland clients operates under a more mature regulatory framework. The “in-person” requirement is a key feature, whereby sales and underwriting for mainland clients must be conducted in Hong Kong, with funding primarily sourced from offshore bank accounts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>评级的香港保险公司可能会因资本管制的进一步收紧而面临有限的直接影响，因为向大陆客户销售保险产品是在更成熟的监管框架下进行的。“亲自” 要求是一个关键特征，即针对大陆客户的销售和承保必须在香港进行，资金主要来自离岸银行账户。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Hong Kong’s insurance industry has undergone multiple rounds of regulatory tightening since 2016, including restrictions on payment methods and caps on credit card transactions. As a result, insurers and intermediaries have largely moved away from business associated with illegal funding channels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，自 2016 年以来，香港的保险行业经历了多轮监管收紧，包括对支付方式的限制和信用卡交易的上限。因此，保险公司和中介在很大程度上已远离与非法资金渠道相关的业务。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, downside risks may emerge if stricter capital controls are imposed on cross-border sales. Such measures could be introduced if regulators identify cases of policies financed through illegal channels. Cross-border sales have been a key growth driver for Hong Kong insurers. Moody's estimates that such business accounts for about 40% of industry new business premiums, rising to 50% for leading players. Further tightening of capital controls or any policy changes would likely slow new business growth in Hong Kong and could increase the risk of policy surrenders for existing cross-border policies. (ad/da)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果对跨境销售实施更严格的资本管制，可能会出现下行风险。如果监管机构发现通过非法渠道融资的案例，可能会引入此类措施。跨境销售一直是香港保险公司的主要增长驱动力。穆迪估计，这类业务约占行业新业务保费的 40%，领先企业的比例上升至 50%。进一步收紧资本管制或任何政策变化可能会减缓香港的新业务增长，并可能增加现有跨境保单的退保风险。 (ad/da)</p>
</div>

穆迪表示，大陆对非法跨境证券活动的打击对已评级的香港金融机构影响适中