<p>很少有股票像 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU +8.80%）一样在人工智能（AI）热潮中表现如此出色。这家内存芯片制造商的股价在 2026 年已经上涨了三倍，截至目前上涨近 300%，交易价格约为$1,134，刚刚创下新高。该公司的市值现在接近 1.3 万亿美元。</p>
<p>这为周三的财报设定了一个高标准。当美光在 6 月 24 日收盘后发布其 2026 财年第三季度财报（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日）时，另一个创纪录的业绩几乎是板上钉钉——管理层几个月前就预告了惊人的增长。真正的问题是，随报告发布的前景是否能证明当前的股价已经假设了这一热潮将持续下去。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2020" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>重要数字</h2>
<p>头条数字将是收入。美光预计收入约为 335 亿美元，误差在 7.5 亿美元左右——比其在财年第二季度报告的 238.6 亿美元增长约 40%，而该季度的收入几乎是去年同期的三倍。为了更好地理解，管理层指出，其财年第三季度的收入指引就超过了该公司在 2024 财年之前的任何一个完整年度的总收入。</p>
<p>管理层还预计非公认会计原则（调整后）毛利率将创下约 81% 的新高，每股收益约为 19.15 美元。</p>
<p>但记录并不是问题——公司的指引几乎可以确保这些记录的实现——或者至少是管理层所指引的范围内的某些数据。真正重要的是管理层对内存定价和供应的看法。</p>
<p>这一评论是整个上涨的动力。美光已完成其 2026 年高带宽内存（HBM）供应的价格和数量协议。</p>
<p>美光在其财年第二季度的准备发言中表示：“我们预计 2026 年日历年内存行业的 DRAM 和 NAND 比特需求将受到供应的限制。” 并补充说，预计这种情况在今年之后仍将保持紧张。</p>
<p>当然，短缺的根源在于 AI。</p>
<p>每一代新的 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA +3.08%）芯片——在 AI 计算中心的图形处理单元（GPU）——需要更多的内存，而最先进的类型每比特所需的工厂产能远高于普通内存。因此，随着美光将生产转向英伟达下一代 Vera Rubin 平台的 HBM，它将从用于笔记本电脑和数据中心服务器的标准内存中抽调产能，保持价格高企。</p>
<h2>值得关注的信号</h2>
<p>内存业务是一个著名的周期性行业，以前的每一次繁荣最终都让位于供应过剩和价格下跌。因此，这份报告中最具指示性的部分可能根本不是 5 月的季度，而是管理层对 2027 年的信号。</p>
<p>对投资者来说，什么会是一个红旗？任何暗示价格无法继续上涨的迹象都可能让投资者感到担忧。价格当然是由供需决定的。美光已经完成了其 2026 年 HBM 产能供应协议。但管理层仍在与客户进行战略客户协议的谈判，涉及特定的多年承诺，任何在这方面的软化都可能表明供应开始赶上需求。投资者也会关注毛利率。实现约 81% 的调整后毛利率指引将标志着创纪录。但值得关注的是，管理层是否预计这一水平能够维持，还是会从此平稳。</p>
<p>目前，供应方面仍然看起来紧张。美光及其竞争对手正在投入数百亿美元用于新工厂——包括在爱达荷州和纽约建设的工厂，预计第一座爱达荷州工厂将在 2027 年中期开始初步晶圆生产，第一座纽约工厂预计将在 2030 年及以后提供供应。但这些 资本支出 在 2027 年末之前不会增加显著的产能。这可能会使紧张局面持续一段时间。</p>
<p>这也是 估值 辩论的核心。美光的股价约为$1,134，市盈率超过 50 倍——对于一家内存制造商来说，这个倍数看起来很高。但这些滞后收益几乎无法反映正在发生的转折。公司对财年第三季度每股收益约 19.15 美元的指引远高于刚刚报告的季度的 12.20 美元，因此，与未来一年可能获得的收益相比，股票看起来便宜得多——假设周期保持不变。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="美光科技股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<p>美光科技</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$1135.00</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.2 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.8 百万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>51.2 百万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>58.54%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.05%</p>
<p>那么，这轮上涨结束了吗？</p>
<p>我认为这一季度不会给出答案。记录基本上已经确定，对我来说，报告的关键在于前景。只要管理层继续描述市场供应短缺，并暗示 2027 年的形势与 2026 年相似，牛市的前景可能仍将保持不变。</p>
<p>但现在的价格几乎没有留给失望的空间。对明年定价的谨慎表态，或任何客户回撤的迹象，都可能会使股价大幅下跌，因为市场已经定价了太多的乐观情绪。内存热潮可能会继续，但在像这一年这样的年份之后，风险在于市场正在对此寄予厚望。</p>

美光科技

1 倍做空 MU ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多美光科技 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 MU ETF - GraniteShares

MUYY

<p>美光科技即将公布 2026 财年第三季度财报，指引显示收入将创纪录，约为 335 亿美元，每股收益为 19.15 美元，这一增长主要受到人工智能推动的高带宽内存需求的驱动。尽管短期业绩预计将超出预期，但投资者将关注管理层对 2027 年供应限制和定价能力的评论。该股票目前的估值较高，因此未来展望对维持其上涨势头至关重要</p>

<p>Few stocks have ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) boom quite like <strong>Micron Technology</strong>( MU +8.80%). The memory chipmaker's stock has more than tripled in 2026, up nearly 300% year to date as of this writing and trading around $1,134 after a fresh run to record highs. The company is now valued at close to $1.3 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有股票像 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU +8.80%）一样在人工智能（AI）热潮中表现如此出色。这家内存芯片制造商的股价在 2026 年已经上涨了三倍，截至目前上涨近 300%，交易价格约为$1,134，刚刚创下新高。该公司的市值现在接近 1.3 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That sets a high bar heading into Wednesday. When Micron reports its fiscal third quarter of 2026 (the period ended May 28, 2026) after the close on June 24, another set of records looks all but assured -- management guided months ago for staggering growth. The real question is whether the outlook that comes with the report can justify a stock price that already assumes the boom keeps going.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为周三的财报设定了一个高标准。当美光在 6 月 24 日收盘后发布其 2026 财年第三季度财报（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日）时，另一个创纪录的业绩几乎是板上钉钉——管理层几个月前就预告了惊人的增长。真正的问题是，随报告发布的前景是否能证明当前的股价已经假设了这一热潮将持续下去。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzMzUvbWljcm9uLXN0b2NrLW11LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="A green stock chart with an upward trend." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875335%2Fmicron-stock-mu.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The number that matters</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>重要数字</h2>
</div><p>The headline figure will be revenue. Micron has guided for about $33.5 billion, give or take $750 million -- up about 40% from the $23.86 billion it reported in its fiscal second quarter, which had itself nearly tripled from a year earlier. To put that in perspective, management has noted that its fiscal third-quarter revenue guidance alone tops the company's total revenue for any full year through fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>头条数字将是收入。美光预计收入约为 335 亿美元，误差在 7.5 亿美元左右——比其在财年第二季度报告的 238.6 亿美元增长约 40%，而该季度的收入几乎是去年同期的三倍。为了更好地理解，管理层指出，其财年第三季度的收入指引就超过了该公司在 2024 财年之前的任何一个完整年度的总收入。</p>
</div><p>Management also guided for a record non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin of about 81% and earnings per share of around $19.15.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层还预计非公认会计原则（调整后）毛利率将创下约 81% 的新高，每股收益约为 19.15 美元。</p>
</div><p>But the records aren't really the question -- the company's guidance all but assures them -- or at least something in the ballpark of what management guided for. What matters is what management says about memory pricing and supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但记录并不是问题——公司的指引几乎可以确保这些记录的实现——或者至少是管理层所指引的范围内的某些数据。真正重要的是管理层对内存定价和供应的看法。</p>
</div><p>That commentary is the engine behind the entire run. Micron has completed agreements on price and volume for its entire calendar 2026 high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一评论是整个上涨的动力。美光已完成其 2026 年高带宽内存（HBM）供应的价格和数量协议。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We expect both DRAM and NAND industry bit demand in calendar 2026 to be constrained by supply,&#34; Micron said in its fiscal second-quarter prepared remarks, adding that it expects conditions to stay tight beyond this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光在其财年第二季度的准备发言中表示：“我们预计 2026 年日历年内存行业的 DRAM 和 NAND 比特需求将受到供应的限制。” 并补充说，预计这种情况在今年之后仍将保持紧张。</p>
</div><p>The shortage, of course, traces back to AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，短缺的根源在于 AI。</p>
</div><p>Each new generation of <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA +3.08%) chip -- the graphics processing units (GPUs) at the center of AI computing -- needs more memory, and the most advanced type uses far more factory capacity per bit than ordinary memory does. So as Micron shifts production toward HBM for Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, it pulls capacity away from the standard memory that goes into laptops and data-center servers, keeping prices elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每一代新的 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA +3.08%）芯片——在 AI 计算中心的图形处理单元（GPU）——需要更多的内存，而最先进的类型每比特所需的工厂产能远高于普通内存。因此，随着美光将生产转向英伟达下一代 Vera Rubin 平台的 HBM，它将从用于笔记本电脑和数据中心服务器的标准内存中抽调产能，保持价格高企。</p>
</div><h2>The signal worth watching</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>值得关注的信号</h2>
</div><p>Memory is a famously cyclical business, and every prior boom has eventually given way to a glut of supply and falling prices. So, the most telling part of this report may not be the May quarter at all, but what management signals about 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存业务是一个著名的周期性行业，以前的每一次繁荣最终都让位于供应过剩和价格下跌。因此，这份报告中最具指示性的部分可能根本不是 5 月的季度，而是管理层对 2027 年的信号。</p>
</div><p>What would be a red flag for investors? Any hint that pricing can't keep pushing higher would likely worry investors. Pricing, of course, is determined by supply and demand. And Micron has completed its 2026 HBM capacity supply agreements. But management is still working with customers on strategic customer agreements with specific multi-year commitments, and any softening there could signal that supply is starting to catch up with demand. And investors will be watching margins, too. Achieving its adjusted gross margin guidance of about 81% would already mark a record. But it's worth watching whether management expects that level to hold or to flatten from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对投资者来说，什么会是一个红旗？任何暗示价格无法继续上涨的迹象都可能让投资者感到担忧。价格当然是由供需决定的。美光已经完成了其 2026 年 HBM 产能供应协议。但管理层仍在与客户进行战略客户协议的谈判，涉及特定的多年承诺，任何在这方面的软化都可能表明供应开始赶上需求。投资者也会关注毛利率。实现约 81% 的调整后毛利率指引将标志着创纪录。但值得关注的是，管理层是否预计这一水平能够维持，还是会从此平稳。</p>
</div><p>For now, the supply side still looks tight. Micron and its rivals are spending tens of billions on new factories -- including plants going up in Idaho and New York, with the first Idaho fab expected to begin initial wafer output in mid-calendar 2027 and the first New York fab expected to provide supply in 2030 and beyond. But those capital expenditures won't add meaningful capacity until late 2027. That could keep the squeeze in place a while longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，供应方面仍然看起来紧张。美光及其竞争对手正在投入数百亿美元用于新工厂——包括在爱达荷州和纽约建设的工厂，预计第一座爱达荷州工厂将在 2027 年中期开始初步晶圆生产，第一座纽约工厂预计将在 2030 年及以后提供供应。但这些 资本支出 在 2027 年末之前不会增加显著的产能。这可能会使紧张局面持续一段时间。</p>
</div><p>And that is the heart of the valuation debate. At around $1,134, Micron trades at more than 50 times earnings -- a multiple that looks steep for a memory maker. But those trailing earnings barely capture the inflection underway. The company's guidance for about $19.15 in fiscal third-quarter earnings per share alone sits well above the $12.20 it earned in the quarter just reported, so the stock looks far cheaper measured against what it could earn over the next year -- assuming the cycle holds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是 估值 辩论的核心。美光的股价约为$1,134，市盈率超过 50 倍——对于一家内存制造商来说，这个倍数看起来很高。但这些滞后收益几乎无法反映正在发生的转折。公司对财年第三季度每股收益约 19.15 美元的指引远高于刚刚报告的季度的 12.20 美元，因此，与未来一年可能获得的收益相比，股票看起来便宜得多——假设周期保持不变。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Micron Technology Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FMU.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
</div><p>Micron Technology</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光科技</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(8.80%) $91.81</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$1135.00</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1135.00</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.2T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.2 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1092.99 - $1149.21</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$103.38 - $1149.43</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.8 百万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>51.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>51.2 百万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>58.54%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>58.54%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.05%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.05%</p>
</div><p>So is the rally finished?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，这轮上涨结束了吗？</p>
</div><p>I don't think this quarter will settle it. The records are essentially baked in, and for me, the report comes down to the outlook. As long as management keeps describing a market short on supply and signals that 2027 is shaping up much like 2026, the bull case will likely remain intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这一季度不会给出答案。记录基本上已经确定，对我来说，报告的关键在于前景。只要管理层继续描述市场供应短缺，并暗示 2027 年的形势与 2026 年相似，牛市的前景可能仍将保持不变。</p>
</div><p>But the price now leaves little room for disappointment. A cautious word on next year's pricing, or any sign that customers are pulling back, could knock the stock down hard, given how much optimism is already priced in. The memory boom may well keep running. The risk, after a year like this one, is that the market is counting on it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在的价格几乎没有留给失望的空间。对明年定价的谨慎表态，或任何客户回撤的迹象，都可能会使股价大幅下跌，因为市场已经定价了太多的乐观情绪。内存热潮可能会继续，但在像这一年这样的年份之后，风险在于市场正在对此寄予厚望。</p>
</div>

Micron's Earnings Report Is Almost Here. Can the Memory Boom Keep Going?

- Micron 股票在 2026 年上涨近 300%，市值接近 1.3 万亿美元。  
- 第三季度预计收入约 335 亿美元，创下新高，但未来价格和供需关系引发关注。  
- 投资者担心任何价格下滑信号可能导致股票大幅回落。

美光科技的财报即将发布。存储器行业的繁荣能否持续下去？